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Thread: Article: Morneau vs. The Void

  1. #41
    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    You are taking a chance keeping Justin going into next yr and hoping he stays healthy to MAYBE get a good deal at the deadline. What if the Twins are contending next July??? they won't trade him then... I think he gets moved this winter... Parm needs to play and unless they trade Span(which is probable) then Ben can shift to CF and Parm can play RF everyday, might not be ideal defnsively because of his lack of experience there but Revere would cover alot of Parms ground in right CF and then you can have both Justins and Parmalee's bat in the lineup. Of course Ben would have to cover basically the whole OF with osh in left but hey if Josh, Chris and Justin combine for 85 hr's does it matter

  2. #42
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    What kind of production would Morneau have to have in order for you to consider an extension? After all, in the 2014/15/16, who else will be paying beyond Mauer and inexpensive Willingham*. I'd be tempted to give Morneau Willingham's deal. (Afterall, it ain't our money. /hattip usafchief)

    *I find it hard to believe the Twins would really invest high amounts of dollars in FA pitching, but if the Twins were willing to, trading Morneau for snot rags might be more palatable.

  3. #43
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dilligaf69 View Post
    You are taking a chance keeping Justin going into next yr and hoping he stays healthy to MAYBE get a good deal at the deadline. What if the Twins are contending next July??? they won't trade him then... I think he gets moved this winter... Parm needs to play and unless they trade Span(which is probable) then Ben can shift to CF and Parm can play RF everyday, might not be ideal defnsively because of his lack of experience there but Revere would cover alot of Parms ground in right CF and then you can have both Justins and Parmalee's bat in the lineup. Of course Ben would have to cover basically the whole OF with osh in left but hey if Josh, Chris and Justin combine for 85 hr's does it matter
    Yeah, that'd be awful, if the Twin were contending next July.

    Just to be on the safe side, they should take steps now to ensure that doesn't happen.

  4. #44
    Senior Member Double-A
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    What kind of production would Morneau have to have in order for you to consider an extension? After all, in the 2014/15/16, who else will be paying beyond Mauer and inexpensive Willingham*.

    Willingham's deal will be done after 2014 too. Of course, it's not just the contracts that you have to plan around, it's the rest of the players on the team, particularly in 2014. You already have Willingham, Doumit & Mauer who could fill the DH, C & 1b spots, and perhaps Parmalee. Does it makes more sense to sign Morneau to force Willingham's glove to the outfield or look for an outfielder instead?

    I don't think there's anything Morneau could do to have me give him a 3 year deal. His concussion history is too troubling. I could see giving him a 1 year deal in 2014, or a deal with options. I'd say 1 year, $7 million. If he isn't playing worth near $7 million, he's probably not playing well enough to displace someone else on the team. If he's playing well enough to get more than that, then someone else will be more willing to gamble on him than I would.

  5. #45
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    GM's gamble all the time. Look at the White Sox, with Peavey and Rios. Big gambles at the time, not so much now. Or look at the signing bonus given Sano. Morneau is finally hitting lefties again, which means he's back in business. If he keeps hitting like this, he's as big an asset to the Twins as Mauer or Willingham. I'd rather give Morneau big bucks than a Cliff Lee type of free agent pitcher.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Yeah, that'd be awful, if the Twin were contending next July.

    Just to be on the safe side, they should take steps now to ensure that doesn't happen.
    No worries, Terry Ryan's already on it. Bill Smith even gave him a head start.

    It absolutely murders me when Terry Ryan talks about how "free agents don't work" with his "smartest guy in the room" voice, yet the organization has spent the past half decade paying out huge contracts to their own guys before they became free agents. How is this really any different? If you end up overpaying Mauer, Morneau, Pavano, Capps, or Nick Blackburn not because of "market inflation" but because they're "your guys", does the reason really matter to the result?

    If the trade market for Morneau isn't good enough to move him now (or next July), then what's the real risk in waiting out the contract to see if he's still a viable player before you commit 2 or 3 more years to him? Morneau is an extremely popular player, and I think the general fanbase would be abhorred if the Twins traded him. If he chooses to leave to some other team as a FA, then so be it. I think the Aaron Gleeman's of the world totally understand that fanbase aspect of it, but are so tuned into the pragmatic reasons for flipping him for value that they lose sight of how beholden this front office is to player popularity. It's not like they exactly "drove a hard bargain" in signing Mauer. I really can't see them ever trading Morneau.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave T View Post
    GM's gamble all the time. Look at the White Sox, with Peavey and Rios. Big gambles at the time, not so much now. Or look at the signing bonus given Sano. Morneau is finally hitting lefties again, which means he's back in business. If he keeps hitting like this, he's as big an asset to the Twins as Mauer or Willingham. I'd rather give Morneau big bucks than a Cliff Lee type of free agent pitcher.
    Nishioka was a gamble. Doesn't mean I fault the Twins for trying and being so blatantly wrong on him, necessarily, but it helps to point out both the good and bad sides of risk.

    Morneau's in his 30's now. I agree with you that he has value to the team, and they might as well keep him if other teams aren't going to give up good prospects for him. But an extension? Even if he didn't have the terrible concussion problem, plus the wrists, back, and neck to worry about, how much is a 32-35 year-old Morneau really worth? Large power hitters fall off quickly, and they either become something else (like a singles hitter) or are out of the game.

    Morneau hasn't made it through a season since 2008, and even in that year, he broke down physically and struggled terribly through September and October from playing all 163. And as much as I hate to say it, it could be over tomorrow because of the concussions. He could fall backwards like Koskie did, or simply move too fast for a ball or something, and that could be it. Enjoy Morneau for as long as you can - we have him through 2013, and don't need to make any rash decisions.

  8. #48
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    No worries, Terry Ryan's already on it. Bill Smith even gave him a head start.

    It absolutely murders me when Terry Ryan talks about how "free agents don't work" with his "smartest guy in the room" voice, yet the organization has spent the past half decade paying out huge contracts to their own guys before they became free agents. How is this really any different? If you end up overpaying Mauer, Morneau, Pavano, Capps, or Nick Blackburn not because of "market inflation" but because they're "your guys", does the reason really matter to the result?

    If the trade market for Morneau isn't good enough to move him now (or next July), then what's the real risk in waiting out the contract to see if he's still a viable player before you commit 2 or 3 more years to him? Morneau is an extremely popular player, and I think the general fanbase would be abhorred if the Twins traded him. If he chooses to leave to some other team as a FA, then so be it. I think the Aaron Gleeman's of the world totally understand that fanbase aspect of it, but are so tuned into the pragmatic reasons for flipping him for value that they lose sight of how beholden this front office is to player popularity. It's not like they exactly "drove a hard bargain" in signing Mauer. I really can't see them ever trading Morneau.
    the trick is to lock up your guys during their prime and then jettison them when they are on the other side... That does work.

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