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Thread: Dozier now and beyond

  1. #21
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    That's a different argument, but I guess some of us define "failure" and "chances given" different that others...
    Here are Casilla's seasons with the Twins:

    Age 23 season: 91 OPS+ almost full time (437 PAs - his record high - 2008)
    Age 24 season: 45 OPS+ (256 PAs - not consistent playing time; manager's choice)
    Age 25 season: 100 OPS+ (170 PAs - not consistent playing time because of injuries)
    Age 26 season: 91 OPS+ (365 PAs - not consistent playing time; injuries)

    Age 27 season: 55 OPS+ (234 PA - not consistent playing time; manager's choice)

    So, other than this season and his age 24 season where he underperformed, I would say OPS+ of 91 and 100 is pretty darn good for a middle infielder. (As a reference point, Nick Punto's career OPS+ is 75, and that includes his 125 last season with St. Louis; Dozier's OPS+ is 65 now and Carroll's 72.) So, I don't think that he underperformed other than that one season (his age 24) which apparently forever blemished him in the eyes of many... And he is a streaky hitter and he needs to play to hit. This is obvious this season. When he has 4-5 games in a row he hits... And we are talking about a guy who once stole 50 and another season 49 in the minors; and at age 24 (when he was sent down to Rochester, he put a .340/.379/.449 line. In AAA. as a 24 year old. He was much more of a prospect than Dozier was. Really.

    I guess we can disagree on whether he was given a chance or not or whether he performed or not...

    Compare his treatment to that of Butera, let's say...
    Chop it up however you like. At the end of the day, it adds up to .248/.303/.331 over 6 years. He's had multiple opportunities to hold down a job, and spit the bit every time. Just stop with this crap already.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Any thoughts on Dozier being the 2B of the future instead of the SS?

  3. #23
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    I wonder if there isn't one big thing that Dozier has going for him - Gardy lobbied for him. It seems pretty clear that Dozier was rushed through AAA because Gardy had lobbied for him last year, had his opinion solidified in a big spring training and the Twins had (kind of) an opening.

    Gardy was a shortstop and I thin most would agree he's been a little goofy about them. He's their biggest critic and their biggest supporter. I don't know exactly what Gardy's support means, but I think it means that Dozier does enough stuff that Gardy likes that Gardy feels OK trotting him out there to see if Dozier develops. That is a good thing, IMHO. Like someone said above, his minor league batting eye gives me a lot of hope that he's going to get better, especially because he almost skipped AAA completely.

  4. #24
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    I'll bet that virtually every manager in the league would agree that Gardy has been very fair in his treatment of Alexi. Very fair. And does anyone actually think Casilla's chances have been (or should have been) limited on the basis of OPS +? How ridiculous would that be?

    thrylos, you know exactly why Casilla has unfairly been denied a full-time job. Gardy can't understand OPS+. Yep. That darned Gardy again.

    But really, Alexi's chances have been limited for one reason: it's in celebration of the Twins bare bone budget cutting. Yep. Hilarious once again, jokin.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    I'll bet that virtually every manager in the league would agree that Gardy has been very fair in his treatment of Alexi. Very fair. And does anyone actually think Casilla's chances have been (or should have been) limited on the basis of OPS +? How ridiculous would that be?

    thrylos, you know exactly why Casilla has unfairly been denied a full-time job. Gardy can't understand OPS+. Yep. That darned Gardy again.

    But really, Alexi's chances have been limited for one reason: it's in celebration of the Twins bare bone budget cutting. Yep. Hilarious once again, jokin.
    Yes, hilariously funny- because the Twins are a much better team with minimum wage players dotting the field at key positions when they had control of one of the best at his position in baseball and got rid of him for a career AAA player.

    It strikes me odd what you find hilarious in the face of the facts presented. What is that actually goes on at all of those Pohlad soirees?

  6. #26
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    Yep. "Mininum wage players dotting the field at key positions". Yep. "Bare bones budget cutting". Yep. Pohlad "makes his living finding wiggle room for every word he utters." Yep.

    This is what you call "facts presented". Yep. Your credibility is impeccable, jokin.

    Why not just tone down the rhetoric? You see, jokin, out here in the sycamore trees, where reality fails to be grasped, at all the dinner parties and soirees, you don't find the kind of dishonest "droning of garbled commentary" that you call "facts". As a matter of "fact", people are actually pretty fair-minded toward each other at all our dinner parties and soirees. And the food? Really really good.

  7. #27
    Senior Member Double-A BrentMpls's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    I disagree. Besides Nishioka's lack of arm strength, I felt like he was as fundamentally unsound as any player I ever saw play for the Twins. Nishioka couldn't (can't) run and has no discernible power.

    I agree, sadly the end result is one with not much difference

  8. #28
    Dozier is frustrating.

    You can certainly accept a little bit of the standard explanations they've been using, but the inconsistency in the field has been a concern. A ground ball is a ground ball, and a throw to first base is a throw to first base no matter what level you play.

    He has botched way too many plays this year,, and the Twins shouldn't think they've got the answer for the next ten years out there just yet.

  9. #29
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    Dozier is frustrating.

    You can certainly accept a little bit of the standard explanations they've been using, but the inconsistency in the field has been a concern. A ground ball is a ground ball, and a throw to first base is a throw to first base no matter what level you play.

    He has botched way too many plays this year,, and the Twins shouldn't think they've got the answer for the next ten years out there just yet.
    I agree with this. I don't think the Twins think they have the answer for the next ten years. Dozier must improve his consistency. But, as I mentioned before, that is generally the way it is with many young shortstops. Bartlett made many spectacular plays for the Twins, but it took him awhile to achieve much consistency. In fact he managed to mess up a number of pretty routine plays for Tampa Bay, which may be part of the reason(along with money and injuries) why they didn't consider him a core player and traded him. Gagne had high error totals as well during his first couple seasons.

    I like what we have seen of Dozier, so far. If this is as good as it gets, well thats not very good. But I expect him to smooth out the defense, with the possibility of becoming a top of the order hitter. The thought by an earilier poster that he could become a 2nd baseman is a real possibilty as well. But I think he will be good enough to hold down shortstop until/if a higher impact shortstop works his way through the system.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Yep. "Mininum wage players dotting the field at key positions". Yep. "Bare bones budget cutting". Yep. Pohlad "makes his living finding wiggle room for every word he utters." Yep.

    This is what you call "facts presented". Yep. Your credibility is impeccable, jokin.

    Why not just tone down the rhetoric? You see, jokin, out here in the sycamore trees, where reality fails to be grasped, at all the dinner parties and soirees, you don't find the kind of dishonest "droning of garbled commentary" that you call "facts". As a matter of "fact", people are actually pretty fair-minded toward each other at all our dinner parties and soirees. And the food? Really really good.
    I hilariously noted you continue to fail to acknowledge a single fact that was presented. I'll waste my time and give you some more facts to chew over.

    1) Dozier isn't a minimum wage player at a key position? Plouffe? Valencia? Revere (playing RF- designed for a power hitter- the departed Young, Kubel and Cuddyer make $24.725M- Willingham and Revere make $7.4925M)?
    2) Trading Hardy for Hoey was bare bones budget cutting. Hardy's initial replacements at SS? Minimum wagers Tolbert, Casilla and Plouffe.
    3) 3B? With the exception of Joe Crede's short coffee break in '09, nothing but minimum wagers and a barely above minimum wager, LNP, since the Corey Koskie era ended in '04.
    3) If you don't see that Pohlad does what he should do as a man in his position, ie, carefully crafts every utterance to protect his investment and interests, that's your problem, not mine.
    Last edited by jokin; 08-04-2012 at 07:43 PM.

  11. #31
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    I think there is a lot of value in having serviceable players at minimum wage rates. The 2002 through 2004 Twins were made almost entirely of such players. Is your point that Dozier will never be more than average? Because the makes him a pretty good addition for the next five years.

    Maybe I'm missing the point....

  12. #32
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    Back to Dozier, I obviously hope he performs very well and it would mean good things for the Twins if he did, but I look at the evidence a little differently than those that think he can be more than a utility player, sadly, that would mean a lot of trouble for th Twins.

    Dozier's success has not been sustained and has come when he is older than much of the competition, so I'm worried his success is a mirage. The first season he hit well was rookie ball with an OPS at .837. But, he was 22, pretty much the top end of the age spectrum there where most players are 18-20. If you're a 22 year-old in rookie ball who hopes to be in the majors, you'd probably better be crushing the ball.

    His second successful hitting season was at AA as a 24 year-old, but even that season was split with 40 games at high A-ball. His numbers were similar between both, so that was good to see. While 24 is more in the middle for AA ball, IMO, a player that has potential to be a major league starter should be further along. For example, look at Twins prospects Hicks and Arcia. Both are younger than Dozier and are handling AA pitching just fine.

    So I'd like to see evidence of sustained success at a level commiserate with his age and development. For me, at least AAA seems like the right level for him to be showing His brief stint there wasn't impressive and he's very clearly overmatched in the pros.

    Do those of you that think he's going to be a legit starter/full time player have evidence for comparison that show this? For example, Bartlett was mentioned, but he hit consistently from 2003-2006 in minors, and from 2005 posted far more acceptable OBP In the pros form 2005 on (25 years old). He's a great comparison from a developmental and age perspective but was much more consistent in the minors.
    Last edited by Alex; 08-04-2012 at 07:39 PM.

  13. #33
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    I don't really know what to think of Dozier at this point, but what better option do the Twins currently have than letting him play SS every day in the big leagues? He's going to be the opening day starter in 2013, I'd bet a large sum of money on that.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I don't really know what to think of Dozier at this point, but what better option do the Twins currently have than letting him play SS every day in the big leagues? He's going to be the opening day starter in 2013, I'd bet a large sum of money on that.
    That's sort of my point. Our hopes rest on him and so do the Twins, but I think that middle infield may be a high position of need among several but maybe only second to starting pitching.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    I think there is a lot of value in having serviceable players at minimum wage rates. The 2002 through 2004 Twins were made almost entirely of such players. Is your point that Dozier will never be more than average? Because the makes him a pretty good addition for the next five years.

    Maybe I'm missing the point....
    The situation was of course, quite different then. Though the jury is clearly out, I think Dozier can possibly be an average SS, but the timing is horrible having to rely on the hope that he reaches his full potential sooner rather than later.

    The Twins are caught, rock/hard-place-style, between rebuilding and reloading. I'm a firm believer that you can't do both and if you read between the lines ("there is no quick fix") Terry Ryan admitted as much last Thursday, followed by Dave St Peter today. They have 4 higher- to very high-priced players and some other dependable veterans who have a short window left at their peak production years, meanwhile the Twins are about to unload virtually the entire opening day starting pitching staff, leaving another off-season of vast uncertainty about the SP makeup for next year and possibly even holding tryouts for the last 3 SP spots in 2013 Spring Training- somewhat akin to what they did this year for the relievers.

    Is the timing right at making a 2013/14 run at a pennant, on behalf of those veterans to-

    1) have an unheralded and (understandably) under-performing rookie at the most important defensive position,
    2) have a complete question mark at 3B to open the 2012 season that only was "solved" with a Hail Mary desperation move with Plouffe (who in turn, has his own set of question marks), and
    3) a current (and near future?) SP staff replete with soft-throwing AAAers, maybe an as-yet unknown FA, maybe mid-season help from a wounded-wing TJ surgery recoverer and maybe another 8-year career minor leaguer who doesn't have any idea where his next pitch is headed-

    all in lieu of having proven major leaguers at SS, 3B and SP to give the vets one last shot for the brass ring as a group? The Twins, though not admitting it for obvious reasons, have been offloading salary in the midst of rebuilding in stages and still hoping to appear to be reloading and competitive in the interim, it doesn't usually work out that well.

  16. #36
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The situation was of course, quite different then. Though the jury is clearly out, I think Dozier can possibly be an average SS, but the timing is horrible having to rely on the hope that he reaches his full potential sooner rather than later....
    ....
    ....all in lieu of having proven major leaguers at SS, 3B and SP to give the vets one last shot for the brass ring as a group? The Twins, though not admitting it for obvious reasons, have been offloading salary in the midst of rebuilding in stages and still hoping to appear to be reloading and competitive in the interim, it doesn't usually work out that well.
    So your point is the Twins need to add high-performing or solid vets at SS, 3B & several starting pitchers? I think that means they either need to spend a lot this offseason or trade away prospects for more solid, albeit expensive guys? Is that what you're saying?

    I guess if that's the bigger view, then I can see why you would be dissatisfied with Dozier.

    I'll add one thing: the Twins have a bigger view too, and it involves developing minor leaguers. Even if they had another $50M payroll, I think plugging in players like Dozier would be a priority or them. They feel strongly that is part of their mission.

  17. #37
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Doizer has been pretty bad this year overall, but with that said he is definitely the starting SS or 2B come opening day, as he should be.
    Out of the MI group of Dozier, Carroll, Casilla, Escobar, Floriman etc Dozier by far is the best in house candidate of the bunch. Even if the Twins somehow trade for a good SS/2B or sign one in FA Dozier still gets first crack at starting at the other MI position, and probably holds it down.

    FWIW: I have always been a bit skeptical of Dozier, but I think he can be a solid 3-4 year stop gap at SS/2B and could see him hitting for a .750 or so OPS in the mahors.

  18. #38
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    It is far too early to know if Dozier will grow as a player. It takes an investment of over 1000 plate appearances. The Twins were wise to bring him up early this year at 25. He will soon enter the peak years of his career and the struggle at the major league level will help. Often players struggle early. AAA can not prepare players for major league pitching.

    If he can defend well enough at SS, he should be able to develop his bat into a regular SS through age 30. More should be expected from a bat at 2B. I think that is where Casilla is limited. The Twins don't believe in his glove at SS and he doesn't have the bat for 2B. I don't think Dozier has the bat for 2B either. Starting SS or utility is where he fits best.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    So your point is the Twins need to add high-performing or solid vets at SS, 3B & several starting pitchers? I think that means they either need to spend a lot this offseason or trade away prospects for more solid, albeit expensive guys? Is that what you're saying?

    I guess if that's the bigger view, then I can see why you would be dissatisfied with Dozier.

    I'll add one thing: the Twins have a bigger view too, and it involves developing minor leaguers. Even if they had another $50M payroll, I think plugging in players like Dozier would be a priority or them. They feel strongly that is part of their mission.
    No, that ship has sailed. It was in response to another poster who was glad to enter the Dozier era and finally leave the Hardy era behind. Given the time horizon for the vets in their peak years, having Hardy still in place, a more established, but not necessarily too expensive 3B signed, and priority given over the last two years in upgrading the SP staff would have been expensive, but with proper stewardship and trades, not another $50M expensive. Perhaps Dozier could have rounded out that lineup nicely at 2B as the Twins made runs this year, 2013 and 2014.

    At that point, beginning, perhaps in 2014, after a couple of title runs, the developed minor leaguers could have begun to fulfill the bigger picture and begun to take their rightful spots at the right time in their development for a quick rebuild.

  20. #40
    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    If I were to list the top 5 problems on the Twins Dozier would be 5...he'll be fine I believe.

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