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Thread: Dozier now and beyond

  1. #41
    Im 100% in that I dont value errors anymore as official scoring is horrendous throughout the majors. I am a UZR guy (understand some dont like it) & he is not the worst fielding SS in majors according to that. Does he need to improve, yes...definately. Think some are forgetting how bad the SS play was last yr.....Dozier has NOT been in that class of poor play.
    Offensively, hes just a rookie. People forget how bad Ben Revere was last yr. How bout Trevor Plouffe or even the MVP Morneau. Even this yrs MVP Mike Trout hit only .220 last yr. Give him the year & see what happens next yr. Shown decent HR power (prob a 10/15 guy) & sb speed (prob a 15/20 guy). Thing that bothers me is he was such a patient walk orientated hitter in minors but only 12bb this yr in 77gms

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    . AAA can not prepare players for major league pitching.
    I don't disagree totally, but you'd think that if he'd have hit at AAA.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz View Post
    Im 100% in that I dont value errors anymore as official scoring is horrendous throughout the majors. I am a UZR guy (understand some dont like it) & he is not the worst fielding SS in majors according to that. Does he need to improve, yes...definately. Think some are forgetting how bad the SS play was last yr.....Dozier has NOT been in that class of poor play.
    Offensively, hes just a rookie. People forget how bad Ben Revere was last yr. How bout Trevor Plouffe or even the MVP Morneau. Even this yrs MVP Mike Trout hit only .220 last yr. Give him the year & see what happens next yr. Shown decent HR power (prob a 10/15 guy) & sb speed (prob a 15/20 guy). Thing that bothers me is he was such a patient walk orientated hitter in minors but only 12bb this yr in 77gms
    Rookies struggle at the plate, certainly.

    Morneau was a 900+ OPS hitter in the minors, Revere was a .300+ hitter at all levels, so while their early struggles are expected, it definitely wasn't surprising that they figured it out this year. Plouffe was consistent throughout the minors until he was 25 where he started crushing the ball at AAA. I very much hope Dozier turns out like Plouffe. I just don't see the evidence for it, and while Dozier's struggles don't surprise me this year, I also won't be surprised if they continue.

    As for fielding, I don't have the numbers but I agree with you that errors don't tell the story. Dozier's errors in particular, though, seem to come on plays that he should make. His UZR is -2.7, though, 18th in the majors, so it's not like he's making up for his bat with his glove.

    I agree he's likely the Twins starter simply by default for the next couple of years but I think in general people are a bit too optimistic about him.
    Last edited by Alex; 08-05-2012 at 02:18 PM.

  4. #44
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    The Twins didn't exit the "Hardy era" to enter the Dozier era. They made a decision to find an alternative for Hardy for two primary reasons:first because they didn't think he was worth the salary he would command, and second, because they thought they had a better idea named Nishioka. They came up looking like imbeciles on both counts. But jokin, you say that this was part of a bare bones budget cutting strategy on the part of the evildoers. Then how do you explain the Nishioka investment? How does that expenditure reconcile with your big conspiracy theory?

    You are confused, jokin. Your conclusions are not "facts". Perhaps a little humility would help you see the difference.

  5. #45
    Senior Member All-Star Ultima Ratio's Avatar
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    Dozier is but a stop gap at this point. He's not panning out and I don't think he can become more than AAAA/AAA player. Just a replacement level player.
    Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    The Twins didn't exit the "Hardy era" to enter the Dozier era. They made a decision to find an alternative for Hardy for two primary reasons:first because they didn't think he was worth the salary he would command, and second, because they thought they had a better idea named Nishioka. They came up looking like imbeciles on both counts. But jokin, you say that this was part of a bare bones budget cutting strategy on the part of the evildoers. Then how do you explain the Nishioka investment? How does that expenditure reconcile with your big conspiracy theory?

    You are confused, jokin. Your conclusions are not "facts". Perhaps a little humility would help you see the difference.
    Studies have shown that teams that overspend at 2B, SS and 3B tend to generally consider themselves in it to win it. The Twins have spoken loud and clear that they aren't in it, with their pocketbooks; they obviously haven't felt comfortable taking on that additional salary risk, and hence the repeated weakness in the Twins infield. The Hardy/Nishioka "imbecilic" (wow, kind of insensitive on your part?) swap, according to the reporting done at the time was obviously a double-mis-evaluation and a cost-cutting move, combined with some wacky new marketing scheme to expand the Twins brand to Asia and possibly entice another prospect or two to consider signing with the Twins. Besides this failure to refute the facts in your post, you also neglected to mention the other areas of cost-cutting which has occurred in the last few years- Valencia undeservedly and practically accidentally out of desperation handed the 3B job, the continual mess at 2B, a CF w/ a pop-gun arm and bat playing out of place in a power/corner OF spot, the cavalier annual casting off of proven relievers- only to then, out of sheer desperation, hold an open tryout in 2012 ST.

    This isn't "evildoing" on the Twins part (not sure why you continue to go there), it's business decisions, right or wrong, based on risk assessment and analysis trying to meet an expected rate of return.
    Last edited by jokin; 08-07-2012 at 12:29 AM.

  7. #47
    I'm trying to think of a player on this team, pitchers not included, that has been worse than Dozier in an overall sense. I can't think of one.

  8. #48
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolfy View Post
    I'm trying to think of a player on this team, pitchers not included, that has been worse than Dozier in an overall sense. I can't think of one.
    Not surprising, given that the offense has been pretty damned good all season and Dozier has been pretty damned bad.

  9. #49
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolfy View Post
    I'm trying to think of a player on this team, pitchers not included, that has been worse than Dozier in an overall sense. I can't think of one.
    Dozier's been lucky because the Twins are shallow in the middle infield.

    If he played anywhere else the Twins would have sent him back down by now, like Danny Valencia and Clete Thomas.

  10. #50
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    Dozier's been lucky because the Twins are shallow in the middle infield.

    If he played anywhere else the Twins would have sent him back down by now, like Danny Valencia and Clete Thomas.
    I'd argue they should have anyway. This kid has some tools that are easy to like...but jesus has he been bad.

  11. #51
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    Dozier's been lucky because the Twins are shallow in the middle infield.

    If he played anywhere else the Twins would have sent him back down by now, like Danny Valencia and Clete Thomas.
    Not sure it's quite fair to compare Dozier to Valencia just yet. Valencia plays at a position where you are expected to hit, whereas Dozier does not. Dozier certainly shows some nice flashes from time to time, but he hasn't "put it together" so to speak. In his case, I think you just need to be patient. I agree that not having decent options helps, but unlike the other options, you can at least claim that there's some upside. He has a nice enough minor league track record that the Twins should be patient and see if he can turn into a .750 OPS guy, which would make him above average for his position (at the plate at least). There's no reason to think he cannot do it, but the idea that as a rookie he's going to come in and produce is somewhat unfair. That doesn't happen nearly as often as we would all like.

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