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Thread: Article: My Top 50 (plus 1) Twins Prospects - August 1 Edition

  1. #21
    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    greengoblinrulz: Yes, unfortunately, you're wrong. The Twins won't be Top 10. I'm expecting ESPN and BA to put them somewhere between 16-22. They're top 6-7 is really good... the problem is between 8-20 where there is a lack of high-ceiling players (60/Extremes).

  2. #22
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    Herrmann is on track to post <.700 OPS at the MLB level. That has no value unless he's playing C.

    The Twins will be top 10 in the rankings. Sano, Buxton, Arcia and Rosario are all going to be top 50 (or really close). Gibson, Hicks, Berrios, Kepler and possibly 1-2 others will be in the top 150. BA doesn't rank that high but pretty much the entire top ten are legit prospects and not many teams have that kind of depth. Very few have more upside. The only problem with this org is that it's almost all hitters.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    greengoblinrulz: Yes, unfortunately, you're wrong. The Twins won't be Top 10. I'm expecting ESPN and BA to put them somewhere between 16-22. They're top 6-7 is really good... the problem is between 8-20 where there is a lack of high-ceiling players (60/Extremes).
    Was thinking about the top 6/8 takin em up the list....agree the 2nd 10 is a lot more unsettling. Im happy with our top 11 actually (include Walker/Hermsen as 10/11).
    At least on the Twins end, you know more about your top prospects than you did entering the season.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by SeanS7921 View Post
    Buxton is the top prospect the Twins have. He actually has two talents that would rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale no other Twins prospect has an 80 rating. Sano might have a 70 in Power. Buxton has an 80 in speed and an 80 arm. He has the most potential. I assume you don't rate Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendriks as propsects anymore even though if they were traded they would be prospects. Both in the Top 12 in the Twins system. Guys like Wheeler and BJ Hermesen have fun numbers in the minors but are 5 starters at best. Look at the K rates look at the competition. Not top 15 at all. Berrios is maybe top 15 but certainly not top 10 yet or even close to 5. That must have been a - Look what I did throw in. Alex Wimmers is to low. He has 3rd starter stuff and that still counts for something compared to guys like Wheeler and BJ.
    Liam & Chris have passed over rookie status (already this yr) by next winter......we're kind of assuming the season ends today, but another month can raise/lower some of these guys alot. If Parm wouldnt have, his age may hurt him (as it does Benson/Gibson), but his AAA hitting is very intriguing.

  5. #25
    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    The Twins ranked 18th entering the year (according to BA). Their #2 (and #100 overall) Benson has been disappointing. Michael (#6) has not performed. Hendriks (7), Parmelee (9) and Dozier (10) all graduated. Salcedo (16), Soliman (23) and Wimmers (25) have all had injuries.

    The addition to Buxton and Berrios will help. And improvements by guys will help too. I just don't think, when viewing the big picture of the MLB, the Twins farm is Top 10... or in the discussion.

    When February rolls around, I'll either be proven right or wrong, but until then... let's keep debating.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeanS7921 View Post
    Buxton is the top prospect the Twins have. He actually has two talents that would rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale no other Twins prospect has an 80 rating. Sano might have a 70 in Power. Buxton has an 80 in speed and an 80 arm. He has the most potential. I assume you don't rate Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendriks as propsects anymore even though if they were traded they would be prospects. Both in the Top 12 in the Twins system. Guys like Wheeler and BJ Hermesen have fun numbers in the minors but are 5 starters at best. Look at the K rates look at the competition. Not top 15 at all. Berrios is maybe top 15 but certainly not top 10 yet or even close to 5. That must have been a - Look what I did throw in. Alex Wimmers is to low. He has 3rd starter stuff and that still counts for something compared to guys like Wheeler and BJ.
    I'm kind of curious where you are getting these numbers from... I never once saw any legit prospect person giving Buxton a single 80 much less two. I have seen several grade Sano at 80 power...

  7. #27
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    I guess I still look at Parmelee as a prospect, and I'd add that he should be pretty high on this list if he is. He's 24 and putting up this line in AAA: .349/.468/.628/1.096

    The one big reason why I was hoping that Span or Revere were traded was that it would open up RF for Parm to play every day. While I don't expect him to hit that well up here, this kid looks more and more like he could be a very solid, middle of the order bat.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I'm kind of curious where you are getting these numbers from... I never once saw any legit prospect person giving Buxton a single 80 much less two. I have seen several grade Sano at 80 power...
    Kieth Law gave Buxton an 80 as a runner and 70 for arm (currently). He projects him as a future 70 fielder, 70 hitter, and 60 power
    Last edited by alarp33; 08-01-2012 at 01:15 PM.

  9. #29
    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I guess I still look at Parmelee as a prospect, and I'd add that he should be pretty high on this list if he is. He's 24 and putting up this line in AAA: .349/.468/.628/1.096

    The one big reason why I was hoping that Span or Revere were traded was that it would open up RF for Parm to play every day. While I don't expect him to hit that well up here, this kid looks more and more like he could be a very solid, middle of the order bat.
    I like that Parmelee has cut down his K-rate. I didn't include him just because I don't think he'll be on the list in the winter and wanted to minimize graduations so that the names wouldn't change as much as the ranking... just my personal preference. I think his value is higher as a 1B, though, than a RF.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I like that Parmelee has cut down his K-rate. I didn't include him just because I don't think he'll be on the list in the winter and wanted to minimize graduations so that the names wouldn't change as much as the ranking... just my personal preference. I think his value is higher as a 1B, though, than a RF.

    I agree there, though to be quite honest, Parm isn't going anywhere until Morneau is gone. I see no problems with the Twins letting him keep RF warm next year until Morneau is traded and then call up one of the 3 nice OF prospects that they have.

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Lots of good feedback...

    VodkaDave: Hicks needs to show power. That's the missing tool. #3-6, really, though, aren't separated by much.
    I would argue that Hicks has shown power. He already has 10 HR this year, and his isop (.168) is the highest it has been since the GCL.

    I doubt he will ever be a threat to hit 30, but at this point with his age and steady improvement there is no reason why he can't be a 20 HR threat. That IMO is good enough for the "power" tool.

    Sorry not trying to nitpick to closely as a 55/60 are almost the same thing. I just think Hicks at this point settles in as an average CF at worst with the ceiling to be a better version of Span OBP, SLG, HR, FLD and SB wise.

  12. #32
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    Your rankings are incredibly optimistic. Of the players on the bottom half of your ratings, the odds of any of them reaching the majors in any capacity is limited at best. TO even have a 40 ranking is "Extreme".

  13. #33
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    I had hoped Morneau would be traded, so we could get a larger sample size on Parmalee this year. There are reasons to make trades beyond just what happens in that trade. Like last year (different sport alert), when the vikings continued to start a veteran RG, they knew they would cut (and who wasn't that good), instead of their rookie RG. sometimes, you need to see what you have, even if it costs you some games in an otherwise bad year. Plus I want the maximum amount of money available for FAs next year.

    The top of this list is nice. I still think that they should consider dealing some OF (either MLB or MiLB) for some pitching. But, for some reason, prospect for prospect trades don't happen often. I am pretty optimistic about the future OF, with Sano at 1B or DH, and Kepler at 1B. I think they have a lot of arms that could be very good relief pitchers also. If they would let them slide into that role earlier, and promote them to the majors, they would have more money to buy FA types....
    Lighten up Francis....

  14. #34
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    I love the Minier inclusion since I forgot him on my list. Very good work Jeremy.

  15. #35
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Never mind. I see reasons to why you did what you did. I do think Hauser may deserve an inclusion. Guiterrez, Thielbar, Tonkin, Hermsen, and Albers are too high. Minier and Mata are too low. I think Arcia should be "Low". You didn't give any prospects safe or low and I think Herrmann, Arcia, and Gibson would all be close to that.
    Last edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse; 08-01-2012 at 05:30 PM.

  16. #36
    Senior Member Triple-A Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    Plus, their top starter candidates above A ball have issues.

  17. #37
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Mata

    Why is he so low? You think he will be in the bullpen? Id put him at a 55/high

  18. #38
    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    VodkaDave- I'm not gonna argue with you about Hicks, all of your points are extremely valid. He could be an average-above average major league center fielder if he stays on the Hunter/Span course. One thing that stuck out to me was that he was projected to be a middle-of-the-lineup hitter, but couldn't stick. His stuff can play as a leadoff guy, without a doubt, but if his hit/power tools both played up, he's a #3 hitter and that's even better.

    mlhouse- The bottom have of the rankings are primarily guys ranked as having a CEILING as platoon or utility guys, not regulars. The risk is how likely they are to reach that ceiling, not how likely they are to make the majors. Reaching their ceiling of 45 means they might not even get a shot.

    YHIMH- I would rank Revere as "safe". I would rank Parmelee, Dozier, Escobar as "low". What you see is essentially what you get. I think Arcia can get better yet. You don't see a lot of "safes" or "lows" league-wide because those prospect-types are getting a shot in the big leagues. We could argue the inclusion of relief pitchers completely. All of the Twins current bullpen came through (most of) the system as starters. I have Hermsen at his grade because I'm convinced he'll have a shot to show he's a 4/5 at the major league level. That's his ceiling, can he make it there?

    clutter- Mata has one pitch right now so I think he'll be a bullpen guy. With one pitch, he can't be much more than a back-end guy. If one of his other pitches comes around, he moves up.

  19. #39
    Justin Morneau per injury was a much better player than Mauer IMHO! So he would be a 75 in my mind and Mauer is much more of a 65-70 player because he lacks power

  20. #40
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    So added flexibility adds to Herrmann's rating? I find that hard to swallow for a number of reasons. Why would he even play OF when the Twins should have much better options? His bat would profile as well below average. I just don't see the love is all.

    My view of Hick's ceiling is Grady Sizemore, with a little less HR's. Thats why I'd rank him higher I guess.

    Not too bad I guess. I'm excited to do a top 40 list on this site, since I think there would be much more participation. We start from the top, vote on it, then add one player to the pool of players and vote on the next spot down. Its an awesome winter killer. I wonder if RP will upload our previous lists to share with everyone here.

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