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Thread: Escobar and Hernandez

  1. #21
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    That is one of the most ignorant prospecting comments I've heard recently. Prospects can be drastically overrated, yes, but ripping on a system you clearly do not understand is not going to help any argument you make.
    Baseball America does a great job of promoting high school and college baseball, and the draft. They should be respected, but the original commenter is also correct. It's just one ranking, and the Twins evaluaters may or may not agree with some of the rankings. Hopefully the Twins prove right. I'm not excited about either guy, but you never know. If Escobar can become a solid regular 2B or SS, or even a great defensive utility guy for 4-5 years, there's value in that. And, the lefty is at least a guy with some upside, who could become Scott Diamond if all breaks well (not optimistic), but if he's a solid back-of-the-rotation guy, it's a good trade.

    I'm not going to pretend to know enough about either of them to know definitely what they will become as so many on these boards seemingly are. The Twins minor leagues have needs everywhere.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Baseball America does a great job of promoting high school and college baseball, and the draft. They should be respected, but the original commenter is also correct. It's just one ranking, and the Twins evaluaters may or may not agree with some of the rankings. Hopefully the Twins prove right. I'm not excited about either guy, but you never know. If Escobar can become a solid regular 2B or SS, or even a great defensive utility guy for 4-5 years, there's value in that. And, the lefty is at least a guy with some upside, who could become Scott Diamond if all breaks well (not optimistic), but if he's a solid back-of-the-rotation guy, it's a good trade.

    I'm not going to pretend to know enough about either of them to know definitely what they will become as so many on these boards seemingly are. The Twins minor leagues have needs everywhere.
    That's just it, though. Referencing only Baseball America and criticizing their rankings is being very myopic and extreme in prospecting views. There are a wealth of highly respected prospect writers out there, and reading on all of them is vital, as is seeing some games in person. Milb.tv is a wonderful service, allowing you to pick a game or two to watch whenever you'd like. I've watched Hernandez pitch, and I don't have the same doom and gloom of Sickels' analysis, but I don't see anything that you'd want going every 5 days right now. He would make a solid LOOGY, but his fastball straightens out fast, so the second time through a lineup is when he gets teed off on. Kevin Goldstein said via Twitter that the Twins got good roster filler pieces but very little upside in the deal. That's what most are upset about is that Liriano should have netted something with upside, unless the organization feels it can compete in 2013 or 2014 and LOOGY guys and Rafael Belliard types are going to be of value. Taking one high-upside (and likely equally high-risk) prospect in a deal for Liriano would have fit more with the idea that the team is at least looking toward the future.

    Heck, look at the haul that the Astros have picked up. None of the guys they've acquired in their deals this year have been high-ceiling guys, but that's okay as they picked up a couple guys like that last season. Now they have the makings of a very solid infield and outfield in their minor leagues with a very high upside catcher as well, all acquired in the last 12 months, not to mention essentially an entire pitching staff. That rebuilding has been very well done, and I think Twins fans have some right to wonder why their pieces weren't spun into a future roster in a similar manner.

    Baseball America is a solid tool, but to base anything off of ranking numbers is completely ignorant of the process. Jim Callis of Baseball America has said it before that the reason you do lists isn't because you feel there's an actual pecking order. It's because it sells and appeals to the lowest common denominator of reader. His hope is always that people will read further into the scouting reports that accompany such lists to understand what BA truly felt about a guy, potential and limitations. Reading through the write ups done on Brandon Wood always indicated a high degree of risk based on his swing and miss tendencies, for instance, but the potential stardom was through the roof because of the raw power. Prospectors are always working to improve their craft as well, so criticizing a process from 1998 would not include most of those working in the industry now as the old guard has given way to a new brand of scout/stat/evaluation hybrid that is constantly seeking to improve predictability and accuracy of reports.
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  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    The Twins are the slowest at promoting position players, or at least they were pre-2011. Then they decided to have their best prospects skip AAA altogether. Doesn't work (only for Arcia would it make any sense). Chris Herrmann is stagnating. Josmil Pinto is as well. Maybe Matthew Koch would do better if he was promoted (I wouldn't overlook the letdown that players experience when they are blocked, blocked, blocked) Rene Rivera is not worth keeping catching prospects from progressing.

    I don't like the Twins currently trading one pitcher for one pitcher. I do NOT get the Escobar involvement in this trade. Pedro Florimon, James Beresford, and Danny Santana may ALL be better overall than this guy.
    I don't read about anybody dominating the minors in hitting that is being kept down a level lower than they should be. What player is doing so over the level of the competition it stands out. They have players doing well, but not that well.

  4. #24
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    That is one of the most ignorant prospecting comments I've heard recently. Prospects can be drastically overrated, yes, but ripping on a system you clearly do not understand is not going to help any argument you make.
    Ben... You read what I wrote and thought I was ripping Baseball America?

    I'm not...

    I read Baseball America... I'm ripping the people who read it and pretend they are armed with everything they need to know about a player and are now freaking out over the Liriano trade.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    hmmmm
    I don't know where you got the velocity numbers and I don't know where Sickels (if that is who you are referring) got that about his pitches.

    mini profiles and scouting reports for both are here.

    Escobar has 4 pitches: A fastball that averages about 90 and maybe he can reach 92-93, a cutter (that some people describe as a 'slider' but it isn't) that sits in mid-high 80s, a slow (70s) curve and a change. The change is his best pitch and his only truly plus pitch. His FB is above average. His cutter has potential but needs work and his curve is an average pitch that he uses as a change of pace type pitch. And he does not use it that often. Because he had been primarily a FB/change pitcher most people thought that he will end up in the pen before he developed the cutter (he still might, btw) His potential as a starter really depends on the cutter.
    I pulled my info off of Sickle's site...

  6. #26
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    Ben... You read what I wrote and thought I was ripping Baseball America?

    I'm not...

    I read Baseball America... I'm ripping the people who read it and pretend they are armed with everything they need to know about a player and are now freaking out over the Liriano trade.
    I read it and took that you don't think anyone can understand minor leagues from doing research. Yes, if rankings is all you see, that's going to skew a lot of things, but Baseball America is only one piece in a very large instrument in successfully understanding the prospecting industry from the scouting to statistical analysis to "eye test" of interacting with a guy. Some measurable, some not. Your comment came off as very simplistic and assuming that all anyone was seeing was a ranking and not giving credit to those who actually have done research from multiple sources to understand the guys joining their favorite team.
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  7. #27
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    Originally Posted by shanewahlThe Twins are the slowest at promoting position players, or at least they were pre-2011. Then they decided to have their best prospects skip AAA altogether. Doesn't work (only for Arcia would it make any sense). Chris Herrmann is stagnating. Josmil Pinto is as well. Maybe Matthew Koch would do better if he was promoted (I wouldn't overlook the letdown that players experience when they are blocked, blocked, blocked)

    I don't buy this slow promotion generality, shanewahl. Your examples of Herrmann and Pinto stagnating aren't accurate. Pinto's put together a nice run very recently. And both are catchers, playing in oppressive heat, getting used to full season play. Slumping at times? Sure. But not stagnating. And your notion that there's some sort of pattern of underperformance and stagnation due to "letdowns"? I think that's all in your head, shanewahl. I see zero evidence to support this theaory.

  8. #28
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    Historically, I think you can make a case for Neshek, Slamma, and Bartlett, but even in those cases, it's hardly a slam dunk. Neshek and Bartlett were left in AAA longer than they should have for various reasons. Slamma was moved through the system slowly because no one believed he could replicate his success at higher levels.

  9. #29
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    I read it and took that you don't think anyone can understand minor leagues from doing research. Yes, if rankings is all you see, that's going to skew a lot of things, but Baseball America is only one piece in a very large instrument in successfully understanding the prospecting industry from the scouting to statistical analysis to "eye test" of interacting with a guy. Some measurable, some not. Your comment came off as very simplistic and assuming that all anyone was seeing was a ranking and not giving credit to those who actually have done research from multiple sources to understand the guys joining their favorite team.
    LOL... You stretched my comment a bit and took it someplace I didn't intend.

    Rankings change from year to year. Stats change from year to year... Month to month. Baseball America will nail some prospects perfect from time to time and miss from time to time. So does every front office in the majors.

    Aaron Hicks had a rough time in Ft. Myers last year and people thought he was a miss. He's turning it around in Conneticut this year and now most people are excited that we have have a superstar again.

    The human element in baseball can't be reduced to a paragraph scouting report. Stats will not predict a player who finally puts it together.

    In the end... It's about getting a chance and making it happen when you get that chance. Let's give them a chance before we toss them aside. No reason to be pre maturely angry about these two kids acquired for a pitcher that didn't live up to expectation. They may not make it but let them put a uniform on .

    I mention Baseball America because BA and other Internet sources is where people are getting their information and using it to go nuts.

    I read BA and I read other scouting reports and I love looking at stats. I also realize that next year or next month or the next game can be different.

    The Twins chose these two over other offers. The Twins front office see something In them. Let's see what it is. It is possible that the Twins read BA as well and cross check that with info from their scouts in the field.

    Can we at least assume that the Twins front office is more informed than you and I. Since they get the Internet info we get... PLUS...

    Im not slamming BA... I'm slamming those who take the info and think that's all the info needed to hang the Front Office.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 07-30-2012 at 01:18 PM.

  10. #30
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    Riverbain makes an excellent point, all we can do is predict the future, but many of us talk about it as if it is some sure thing....It's a good reminder to all (me included) of us to be less certain in some of our posts about the future....that said, there are people that twist this, and say we should never try to comment or predict the future, because we cannot be certain about it. That would lead to an interesting world, frankly....
    Lighten up Francis....

  11. #31
    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Eduardo Escobar -and all of his defensive-wizardry - make his Rochester debut tonight... at 3B.

  12. #32
    Whatever you feel they should have received for Frankie we all should be able to agree that Escobar and Hernandez address our biggest holes in the Twin's organizational depth, left-handed starting pitching and middle infield.

  13. #33
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Eduardo Escobar -and all of his defensive-wizardry - make his Rochester debut tonight... at 3B.
    Wait, so he was one redeeming quality, defense, and it's not good enough to become the default starter at short?
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
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  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Upside? How would you measure it? Sometimes it is an obviously toolsy guy who isn't performing well. Sometimes it is a guy that is young for his age at a level.

    What about Escobar and Hernandez?

    Escobar is the youngest position player on the Rochester roster at 23. He has played every level at a young age. He didn't get there by his tools. He progressed based on his outstanding ability to defend at SS.

    Hernandez is the second youngest pitcher on the Rochester roster. He is 5 days older than Guerra. He also has had success as a younger players at his level.

    Who are the youngest players in the Twins system with major league experience? Escobar as a position player Hernandez as a pitcher.

    They may not be toolsy prospects, but they have performed well enough at a young age to progress. That must count for some upside.
    that and $7.50 will get you a cafe crapacino ....thay are dog turd players..ryan has never made 1 good trade ever... he has made 1 lucky trade in aj and thats it....

  15. #35
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    that and $7.50 will get you a cafe crapacino ....thay are dog turd players..ryan has never made 1 good trade ever... he has made 1 lucky trade in aj and thats it....
    So if it turns out poorly, he's terrible; and if it turns out well, he's lucky.

    Yup. No bias there.

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