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Thread: Article: Houston, We have a Problem

  1. #61
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
    Well who the hell is gonna repeat an ERA+ 205 He's been saddled with some bad luck over the lack couple seasons but give me around 8.2 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9 anyday of the week over Jackson and Sanchez.
    I don't expect him to repeat his 2010 but I do expect him to be a better than league average pitcher... Which he's barely been for almost three full seasons, two of them in the mighty National League.

    Also, Sanchez has a 2.9/9.3 and 2.5/8.2 BB/K per 9 innings the past two seasons.

    At this point, he's not much different than Greinke and he should be a hell of a lot cheaper, both in years and money per year.

  2. #62
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    If you choose to ignore the bad luck he's had the last two seasons that's your own problem. He's been better then league average and has a nice ERA+ 120 even while being saddled with a high BABIP.

  3. #63
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Please enlighten me on what I am thinking and talking about. You clearly have no idea what I have been saying here or in other threads. Your post on the other hand seems to either be poorly articulated or not well thought out.
    By all means provide details and contracts. It'll make it that much easier for me.

    The focus should be on acquiring assets but we should still cut payroll and not spend in FA? Why can't you do both?
    Now who's assuming? I didn't say we had to actively cut payroll, but we don't need to actively add payroll for the sake of it either. People advocating that they need to keep throwing money out in FA are doing it not because it furthers this team ahead, but simply because they feel there is some obligation to spend the money. As I said, if they want to find a few bargains like Willingham - great. But you also start to limit your ability to do that when you turn around and deal them 5 months later. That can't really be a strategy unless you're signing guys in late February who no one else wants - in which case you aren't handing out big money anyway.

  4. #64
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
    If you choose to ignore the bad luck he's had the last two seasons that's your own problem. He's been better then league average and has a nice ERA+ 120 even while being saddled with a high BABIP.
    It's more than bad luck. His fastball is down over 1 MPH from 2009. His slider is down over 2 MPH. His changeup is over 1 MPH faster (though it's hardly his out pitch and he throws it less than 10% of the time). His LD% in the past two seasons is 3-4% higher than it was during his good seasons.

    Greinke is still a good pitcher but his peripherals are moving the wrong direction. For a guy whose last real, sustained success was in 2009, that's a bad sign. It's a doubly bad sign because so many teams are tripping over themselves to placate their fanbases and sign the guy for too much money. No thanks. Give me a guy who has a shot to put up similar numbers for half the overall price.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    It's more than bad luck. His fastball is down over 1 MPH from 2009. His slider is down over 2 MPH. His changeup is over 1 MPH faster (though it's hardly his out pitch and he throws it less than 10% of the time). His LD% in the past two seasons is 3-4% higher than it was during his good seasons.

    Greinke is still a good pitcher but his peripherals are moving the wrong direction. For a guy whose last real, sustained success was in 2009, that's a bad sign. It's a doubly bad sign because so many teams are tripping over themselves to placate their fanbases and sign the guy for too much money. No thanks. Give me a guy who has a shot to put up similar numbers for half the overall price.

    I'm personally not gonna trip about a losing 1 mph over 3 years? That's gonna happen to alot of pitchers. Plus Geinke was never a guy who relied on velocity so I personally don't think it's a big deal.

    "Last real success was 2009" Are you ****ing kidding me? Saddled by a high BABIP...you ignore. Saddled by a horse**** defense in Milwaukee...you ignore. If you don't want the Twins to sign Greinkie that's fine, it's not like it was gonna happen either way. But don't go off on some bull**** about last year success and peripherals going the wrong way while you openly choose to ignore some pretty loud stats that have hurt his numbers.

  6. #66
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
    I'm personally not gonna trip about a losing 1 mph over 3 years? That's gonna happen to alot of pitchers. Plus Geinke was never a guy who relied on velocity so I personally don't think it's a big deal.

    "Last real success was 2009" Are you ****ing kidding me? Saddled by a high BABIP...you ignore. Saddled by a horse**** defense in Milwaukee...you ignore. If you don't want the Twins to sign Greinkie that's fine, it's not like it was gonna happen either way. But don't go off on some bull**** about last year success and peripherals going the wrong way while you openly choose to ignore some pretty loud stats that have hurt his numbers.
    First, chill the hell out.

    I'm not ignoring anything. Greinke has had a high BABIP. He's also had that high BABIP for multiple seasons... at some point, you have to start considering that it might be due to more than bad luck.

    You're the one making excuses for Greinke. I'm the one saying that I don't think he'll ever be anything close to the same pitcher he was in 2009 but that teams are still going to pay him because of that season. And no matter how you shake it out, that's not a smart game for a mid-market team to start playing in the FA market. I'm not saying that Greinke is a lemon or that he won't continue to be a decent pitcher. But after the last few seasons' mediocrity combined with his complete freakin' meltdown this month, that's not a player I want to throw $100m at over five years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    You're the one making excuses for Greinke. I'm the one saying that I don't think he'll ever be anything close to the same pitcher he was in 2009 but that teams are still going to pay him because of that season. And no matter how you shake it out, that's not a smart game for a mid-market team to start playing in the FA market. I'm not saying that Greinke is a lemon or that he won't continue to be a decent pitcher. But after the last few seasons' mediocrity combined with his complete freakin' meltdown this month, that's not a player I want to throw $100m at over five years.
    I don't think he'll come close to 2009 again either cause that's one of the great pitching seasons in the history of baseball. The bottom line is I think Greinke would do wonders for the Twins, he's young, he's stayed healthly (unlike Sanchez) I think the Minnesota market would be a good place for him over larger markets on the coasts and he's a really good pitcher. The Twins aren't gonna sign him and I've already resigned myself to that. But will I take 45-50 million for Jackson or Sanchez or 100 million for Greinkie...well I'll take the 100 million.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Now who's assuming? I didn't say we had to actively cut payroll
    I guess I just got confused because you did just that ...

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    The focus of this team should be acquiring assets around our best prospects
    or
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    No reason to grasp at phantom 2013 straws is my position - rebuild around the future of your minor league system.
    or
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    This club has to make some significant changes and it has to start with unloading just about everyone
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan
    People advocating that they need to keep throwing money out in FA are doing it not because it furthers this team ahead, but simply because they feel there is some obligation to spend the money.
    One time wasn't enough? You thought you'd double down and tell me what I'm thinking a second time? I find that ironic since I showed in general terms how spending in FA could potentially help you in the short, mid and long terms.

    Alright, I'm done with this discussion. I find it insulting that you are telling me what I think about things. I'll just leave it at this; burning the Twins to the ground and then not spending in FA is a poor strategy. It might help the Pohlad's pocketbook but it sure doesn't help the Twins and even more it insults all the Twins fans who spend $50 for a ticket, beer and hot dog.

  9. #69
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    One time wasn't enough? You thought you'd double down and tell me what I'm thinking a second time? I find that ironic since I showed in general terms how spending in FA could potentially help you in the short, mid and long terms.
    Are you on drugs? Nothing was suggested about what you said - in fact - I asked you to be more specific. Don't cower behind being "general" and then get your panties in a wad when things are spoken about generally. So, again, be specific please. You waded into a general conversation yourself, what's insulting is to have you play this scolded puppy routine and then chop up quotes to make your point.

    I'm a season ticket-holder, I'm not thrilled about the idea about the Pohlads pocketing money (as I suggested that any funds not spent should be carried forward. And how I disagree strongly if that is against Pohlad policy) But NOTHING I said had anything to do with dumping money. It's not about unloading payroll - if that happens it's merely a byproduct of the real focus. In fact, since you continue to assume, I wouldn't even consider moving the Twins top two earners. I think their value is either too low to achieve what I said (acquiring assets) or can be part of the team later (when our best prospects arrive).

    This is about dealing Span who will be displaced, Willingham who is having a career year and is 33, Liriano who is a bad investment, Burton, Carroll, Pavano, Capps, and anyone else that would qualify as having value that can A) acquire assets to build around or B) will not be part of the team when our best prospects arrive. To bypass on doing any of this in the name of 10 wins/losses in 2013 or about the bottom line on the payroll next year is stupid. It's bad planning and it will only hurt the team's future. The only investments I make into offseason FA are guys that I can sign for below market contracts (thus making them more tradeable) or that are young and capable of helping the team for many years into the future.

    Congrats on wildly twisting the point though. Bang up job. (Even more amusing that you did it by hypocritically complaining about words being put in your mouth)
    Last edited by TheLeviathan; 07-27-2012 at 12:00 PM.

  10. #70
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
    That's part of the problem, they won't break the bank of a Greinke type arm and a Jackson or Sanchez signing does nothing but make this team a little less worse.
    I know this is a bit off topic, but I'm really curious what you think in terms of who should be in the long term plans and who should not. I go through the roster and I see a team with a lot of talent missing some key pitching pieces. You see a perpetual 100 loss team. What exactly would you blow up?

    C- Mauer - star, locked in long term. Peforming well above average
    1B - Morenau, gone after 2013, not doing well, but is showing signs of life. Parmalee - took some lumps in his first go around, but looking like a middle order bat. Will replace Morneau eventually.
    2B - Casilla, league average at best.. but in general, crap. needs improvment. Also starting to get expensive. Carrol, a bit pricey and under contract for a year. Average at best.
    SS - Dozier - taking some lumps and presently below average, but is improving. It looks like he'll be an average or better SS, and his minor league nubmers back it up. Cheap and here for a while.
    3B - Plouffe - looks to produce well above average at this position. Cheap and here for a while.
    LF - Willingham. Well above average and on a reasonable contract. Locked up for 2 more years.
    CF - Span - Above average and on a reasonable contract. OF of the future currently sitting in AA. Locked up for 2 more years.
    RF - Revere -playing well, but not well enough to be considered a long term solution. Still legit question as to whether he's a 4th OF. OF of the future currently sitting in AA. Cheap and here for a while.
    DH - Doumit. .808 OPS... Probably slightly above average for that position. Locked up for 2 more years.

    SP - Well below average. Signficant improvement needed here. Diamond is the only guy worth keeping around, but should be considered a back of the pen option, not a front liner.
    RP - Average. Some nice cost controlled pieces (Perkins, Burton is arb eligible, Burnett, and Duensing). Could use some help.

    To me, the obvious need is pitching. If Liriano wasn't a headcase in April and Baker didn't get hurt, this team would be considering buying another SP to make a run at things. This team won't be contending without some serious help on the mound. But a couple of wise FA signings, reasonable improvement from the youth, and one of Gibson/Hendricks stepping up, and this team would be a contender. I agree that it wouldn't be a 95 win team or anything of that sort, but in the weak central, they can contend. I don't think it's unfair to ask them to be a contending team in 2013. They could likely ship Morneau off and give Parmalee a full time job at first, especially if one of Hicks/Arcia/Benson is ready.

    Ryan could likely plug some of those pitching holes by simply trading Liriano and Span for pitching that can step up in 2013/14 time frame. I don't see how making this a contending team can be done without grabbing some help in free agency, but in the end, this team isn't that far away. Why exactly do you just want to blow it up?

  11. #71
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    There is no evidence that Parmalee is a middle of the order bat. He's not on anyone's top 100 or 150 prospect list. Casilla is not league average by any stretch of the imagination. How do you conclude Dozier looks like he'll be a league average or better player, based on how he's actually played? Plouffe has 2 months of production, so did Valencia his first year.

    Look, all that could go 100% the right way, but what are the odds of that?

    They are going to lose 90 games for the second year in a row. They have historically bad starting pitching. They are 9th in the AL in runs scored. They are not a couple of players away.

    Terry Ryan has clearly stated that the offense is not good enough as it stands now.
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #72
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    They are not a couple of players away.
    This x 100 - this is the point.

  13. #73
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    There is no evidence that Parmalee is a middle of the order bat. He's not on anyone's top 100 or 150 prospect list. Casilla is not league average by any stretch of the imagination. How do you conclude Dozier looks like he'll be a league average or better player, based on how he's actually played? Plouffe has 2 months of production, so did Valencia his first year.

    Look, all that could go 100% the right way, but what are the odds of that?

    They are going to lose 90 games for the second year in a row. They have historically bad starting pitching. They are 9th in the AL in runs scored. They are not a couple of players away.

    Terry Ryan has clearly stated that the offense is not good enough as it stands now.
    No evidence on Parmelee? He's 24 and hitting a nice .327/.459/.570 in AAA. Those numbers would make PCL players envious and look pretty middle of the order to me, even considering a normal drop off playing in the majors full time. Let you forget, he put up some pretty nice numbers last September too against AAAA/MLB pitchers. Sure, he didn't do that his entire minor league career, but the team also overhauled his mechanics, and sometimes these adjustments take time. No one is saying he isn't a question mark, but there's plenty of good reason for optimism too.

    Dozier looks... that's the key word. He's shown enough to earn some consistent PT, and while he's taken lumps he's improving. No on expects that right away, but you don't need ARod at short eitehr. League average is >.700 OPS. And his minor league career OPS is right around .800. Again, he has question marks, but there's plenty of good reason for optimism.

    No one is saying they will all go 100% the right way. It is a week division, and 100% isn't needed to compete there. What I'm saying is that there's a lot of good pieces in place. The younger players (Plouffe, Dozier, and Parmelee) will likely improve, but what we all agree is that presently the team does not have pitching. Even given Ryan's quotes, that isn't enough reason to simply blow up the team, but there's plenty of evidence that says that they have a far better chance of competing if they spend the 25M on pitching as opposed to beefing up the order.

  14. #74
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I know this is a bit off topic, but I'm really curious what you think in terms of who should be in the long term plans and who should not. I go through the roster and I see a team with a lot of talent missing some key pitching pieces. You see a perpetual 100 loss team. What exactly would you blow up?

    C- Mauer - star, locked in long term. Peforming well above average
    1B - Morenau, gone after 2013, not doing well, but is showing signs of life. Parmalee - took some lumps in his first go around, but looking like a middle order bat. Will replace Morneau eventually.
    2B - Casilla, league average at best.. but in general, crap. needs improvment. Also starting to get expensive. Carrol, a bit pricey and under contract for a year. Average at best.
    SS - Dozier - taking some lumps and presently below average, but is improving. It looks like he'll be an average or better SS, and his minor league nubmers back it up. Cheap and here for a while.
    3B - Plouffe - looks to produce well above average at this position. Cheap and here for a while.
    LF - Willingham. Well above average and on a reasonable contract. Locked up for 2 more years.
    CF - Span - Above average and on a reasonable contract. OF of the future currently sitting in AA. Locked up for 2 more years.
    RF - Revere -playing well, but not well enough to be considered a long term solution. Still legit question as to whether he's a 4th OF. OF of the future currently sitting in AA. Cheap and here for a while.
    DH - Doumit. .808 OPS... Probably slightly above average for that position. Locked up for 2 more years.

    SP - Well below average. Signficant improvement needed here. Diamond is the only guy worth keeping around, but should be considered a back of the pen option, not a front liner.
    RP - Average. Some nice cost controlled pieces (Perkins, Burton is arb eligible, Burnett, and Duensing). Could use some help.
    Well... you got to define long term. On the other hand, since you have Morneau on this list, looks like you are defining it as 2013, which is not long term. Add some ages next to those guys as well, and you will see that mid-term (2014-2015 only players like Mauer -because of the contract- Revere, Plouffe, maybe Dozier, maybe Burnett, maybe Perkins would fit the bill.) Long Term (2017-18) not many of those would be around. The key is to look for 2014-15 when Sano, Rosario, Arcia, maybe Buxton, Hicks would form a decent core supplemented with players like Mauer, Plouffe (probably a DH by then) etc. This is why you got to trade players that would not contribute then (Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Span etc) as soon as you get someone who could be part of that 2014-5 core, and yes, preferable a SP, because the Twins' SP then projects something like (no order) Hendriks, Gibson, Hermsen, Wimmers, Salcedo etc. I think that the pen then, because of this years and last years drafts, will be great. SO... these are my thoughts about your question. You got to build a team with a good young core surrounded by some veterans.
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  15. #75
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Well... you got to define long term. On the other hand, since you have Morneau on this list, looks like you are defining it as 2013, which is not long term. Add some ages next to those guys as well, and you will see that mid-term (2014-2015 only players like Mauer -because of the contract- Revere, Plouffe, maybe Dozier, maybe Burnett, maybe Perkins would fit the bill.) Long Term (2017-18) not many of those would be around. The key is to look for 2014-15 when Sano, Rosario, Arcia, maybe Buxton, Hicks would form a decent core supplemented with players like Mauer, Plouffe (probably a DH by then) etc. This is why you got to trade players that would not contribute then (Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Span etc) as soon as you get someone who could be part of that 2014-5 core, and yes, preferable a SP, because the Twins' SP then projects something like (no order) Hendriks, Gibson, Hermsen, Wimmers, Salcedo etc. I think that the pen then, because of this years and last years drafts, will be great. SO... these are my thoughts about your question. You got to build a team with a good young core surrounded by some veterans.

    I see your point on Morneau. My honest opinion is that they hold on to him and flip him next year at the trade deadline for another decent prospect. I suspect he'll look a lot closer to his former self at that point and should garner some interest and significantly more value. Parmelee slides into 1st and they call up whichever of Hicks/Benson/Arcia that is performing well. If two are performing well, they can either replace Revere or trade Willingham. I agree with you on 2014/15, but you can do it without making 2013 a complete disaster of a season (which I think the Twins brass wants)... They have a very nice core of hitters at that timeframe where the only place with no obvious solution is 2B and of course pitching. I don't see why they cannot be semi-competitive and flip pieces as it makes sense. Morneau would go next year. Willingham might too if the OF prospects are still looking good. I expect Span to go this year. Doumit I'd keep personally as he can hit and keeps Mauer fresh.

    That said, they can pick up a few decent pitching prospects, but whether we like it or not, they are going to have to buy in the free agency market. They don't have enough in the high minors to fill that spot. By 2014 I think you can reasonably expect Hendricks and Gibson to be pitching, but whether or not those guys will be approaching their ceilings is a different story...

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