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Thread: Shooting for 90+

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Yikes, wish I didn't get to this discussion until only now. Lots of good stuff.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    First, I like breaking it down into those three options, though I wonder what the prediction you (the OP jorganswest) would make in terms of wins in 2014 if they actually pursue option A?

    I mean, do you think that pursuing the first option really hurts their chances for 90+ wins in 2014? If not, and if done correctly, I think not, then why wait another year and sell off known good players right now?

    The Royals and Pirates have been abominations. At least the Pirates seem to be committed to winning finally, and managed to get Andrew McCutcheon locked in through 2017 on a nice contract (he doesn't even make $10 million until 2015!).

    I would like to see the Twins do something like:

    Trades: Liriano and Morneau (probably Liriano at the deadline and Morneau in the offseason), Valencia, Casilla, some middle reliever in the minors like Guerra or Watts, and some one OF prospect (not sure who at the moment, but I would like them to keep Hicks and Arcia) FOR SP at all levels, which would include someone right now who is 26-28 and is still arb eligible for 2013 or even 2014 as well (someone good, obviously--I will get around to looking for these guys soon). That means a good SP for around 3-5 million in 2013 and 5-8 million in 2014 before he even becomes a free agent and the Twins have to make a decision. Add 2 more top 10 (by team) prospects in AA or below as well via trade.

    FA signing: if they do the above, sign one FA starting pitcher for 10-15 million and 3-4 years. Anyone from Dempster to Marcum to Colby Lewis, whatever.

    Promote Liam Hendriks after one more start in Rochester and just let him go. Another 65+ this year in the majors will make his 2013 time a lot better.

    Sign Scott Baker to a base 1.5-2 million contract worth up to 6 million in incentives with a 1 million buyout and 8 million team option (it's strong because he could easily sign elsewhere).

    Put Nick Blackburn on a short leash. Convert to MR if they have to do so. Watch the days on that contract go by and be excited.

    This gives them
    1: FA
    2: Scott Diamond
    3. Arb eligible SP acquired via trade
    4. Liam Hendriks
    5. Baker/Blackburn, eventually Gibson

    Others in AAA, prospect acquired via trade, Bromberg, Walters, DeVries, Stuifbergen

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    I think that this is one of the most inaccurate truisms around baseball... The Twins have reached the postseason in the 00s plenty of times with nothing to show. If it were a crapshoot, there would be equal possibilities of winning the ALDS and losing the ALDS, equal but half of those the possibilities of winning the ALCS and losing the ALCS, and equal but a quarter the original possibilities of winning the WS and losing the WS.

    So we have 50% for winning the ALDS, 25% for winning the ALCS and 12.5% for winning the World Series (just math).

    So if the dice were not loaded, a team that reached the post-season 6 times (like the Twins this millennium), would have gone to the ALCS 3 times, to the WS one or two and would have been a World Champion 1 time. That is what should have happened if it were a crapshoot.

    Looks like the Twins' dice are loaded. Maybe the Manager of the Millennium is the reason. But something's got to change.

    If you look at the Yankees' run from 1996-2004, you'd see an example for Dice loaded the other way.

    not a Crapshoot.

    There are teams that are built to win in the postseason. The Twins have not been one of those and unless things change and people realize that it is not "luck", nada is going to change...
    It is a crapshoot in terms of pitching and hitting. Who rises up. Certainly not Santana when he was here. 1-3 in the post season. Pavano 0-2. About the only rise above the ability pitching performance was Blackburn's to get into the playoffs. No Viola, Blyleven or Morris types. Garza might have been that type. Smith traded him for a can of tuna and a couple of smelt. No Twins batters with MVP seasons did a Puckett and carried a team. Do your star players rise in the playoffs. No bit player ever got hot like Lomardozi did in '87. For the Twins figuring out what player can rise is a crapshoot. Ryan built the Twins to win regular season games. Smith did not carry it on.

  4. #24
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    The problem that I have with shane's plan of going for option A and B is that there are only a couple good arms at the lower levels (or any level) that will be coming up with a really strong offensive core. I'm all about focusing on 2014/2015 and avoiding a 10M Dempster who will likely completely suck at that time and take up payroll.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    The problem that I have with shane's plan of going for option A and B is that there are only a couple good arms at the lower levels (or any level) that will be coming up with a really strong offensive core. I'm all about focusing on 2014/2015 and avoiding a 10M Dempster who will likely completely suck at that time and take up payroll.
    I don't know if Dempster will suck in 2015. He is old, but he isn't that old and he is still striking people out. But there are other options too.

    The Twins have done a lot in the last two drafts to re-stock with good arms. and most of those pitchers are doing very well this year. If Salcedo and Soliman can get back to their paths in 2013 in Fort Myers, that will help the depth with Gibson, Bromberg, Hermsen, and Stuifbergen. (and who knows about Wimmers).

    And of course, the idea is that they get 3 such players back in trades.

  6. #26
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    Dempster is already 35 yrs old and he's been pitching in the NL. He's guaranteed to suck 3 yrs from now.

    You've described a bunch of low upside prospects for the most part. The Twins also haven't done a lot to restock with good arms in the last 2 drafts. They got a few good arms in Berrios, Boyd and Boer but that's not restocking a farm system, that's maintaining the status quo.

  7. #27
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    Crazy to think about 90 when you will never come close to 80.

  8. #28
    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    Crazy to think about 90 when you will never come close to 80.
    Never? This is Twins Daily, not Royals Daily.

  9. #29
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    Crazy to think about 90 when you will never come close to 80.
    Depending on how this roster shakes out over the deadline, I wouldn't find it terribly surprising if the Twins ended this season with 72-75 wins. It's not much of a leap to suggest that with $25m in the offseason, the front office could tack on a few more wins to that total in 2013.

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Dempster is already 35 yrs old and he's been pitching in the NL. He's guaranteed to suck 3 yrs from now.
    Well, his ERA has plummeted this year and his K/BB rate has improved. He is going the right direction for the beginning of a subsequent 3-year contract, at least. Again, he is not the only option. And by 2015, the idea would be to make a decision on the current arbitration guy and see how Gibson, Hendriks, and Diamond are at that point. And I wouldn't overlook Stuifbergen.

    You've described a bunch of low upside prospects for the most part. The Twins also haven't done a lot to restock with good arms in the last 2 drafts. They got a few good arms in Berrios, Boyd and Boer but that's not restocking a farm system, that's maintaining the status quo.
    Prior to this year, Salcedo and Soliman were top 15 prospects in the system. I agree that there isn't an ace in any of those guys mentioned, but in terms of an actual number 1, I did say that the Twins would be trading for at least two top starting pitching prospects.

    I disagree that Berrios, Boyd, and Boer mean merely maintaining the status quo. Those are significant upside guys. Boer will be at Fort Myers again next year, at least to start. Boyd will be at Beloit, and Berrios could end there as well. That sets up a 2015 where those three guys could all be AA or higher.

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    If we let Liriano go and give Ryan freaking Dempster 3 years/30 million my head just might explode.

  12. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I did a quick scan of top ERA SPs for 2012 and here is a list of those either pre-arbitration or in arbitration:

    Pitcher, team, FA year

    Chris Sale, CHW 2017
    Jarrod Parker, OAK, 2018 (?)
    Matt Harrison, TEX, 2015
    Tommy Milone, OAK, 2018
    Jason Hammel, BAL, 2014
    Jeremy Hellickson, TB, 2017

    Jordan Zimmermann, WAS, 2016
    James McDonald, PIT, 2016
    Wade Miley, WAS, 2018
    Lance Lynn, STL, 2018
    Vance Worley, PHI, 2018
    Clayton Richard, SDG, 2015

  13. #33
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    I think A LOT of this can be blamed on something other than the front office. Injuries to our top pitching prospects has crippled this team. Back in 2009, when Gibson was drafted, I am sure the FO thought that he would be the team's #2 or 3 starter right now if not sooner. Fast forward one year and the Twins draft another promising RHP Alex Wimmers that goes Rick Ankiel and is shut down for nearly all of 2011 and then in 2012 is on the verge of Tommy John. Scott Diamond has proven to be a great find as a Rule 5 pickup. But with a healthy Wimmers and Gibson, would the Twins have still made the move?


    I would assume that the FO projections for the 2012 and 2013 seasons would have been closer to this following the 2010 draft:

    2012 projections

    #1 - Francisco Liriano. Liriano was in the midst of a great campaign and looked like the Liriano of old. (Fail - underperformed)
    #2 - Scott Baker. Baker's stuff has always been very good. He just can't seem to stay healthy. (Bad Luck)
    #3 - Carl Pavano. Pavano was going to be a free agent but had pitched well. He would be brought back on a 2 year deal (OK-1st year, bad luck - 2nd year)
    #4 - Nick Blackburn. Blackburn was given a stupid and ridiculous contract so we knew he would be in the conversation. (Epic Fail)
    #5 - Kevin Slowey. Slowey was better than Blackburn. Period. NB's contract assured him a rotation spot. Left Slowey out in the cold. Then he pouted. (Fail)
    #6 - Kyle Gibson. Gibson was on the fast track to the majors and aside from a hiccup at AAA he had been excellent at every stop. (Bad Luck)
    #7 - Glen Perkins. Perkins wasn't exactly in good graces, but he still had potential as a starter. As a reliever he has been very good. (OK)
    #8 - Alex Wimmers. The FO probably thought that Wimmers would follow a similar path to the majors as Gibson. (Bad Luck)
    #9 - Brian Duensing. FO awarded Duensing a rotation spot after a solid 2010 season, but at this time he was still a reliever. (OK)

    2013

    Likely gone: Liriano-unrestricted FA, Pavano UFA


    Likely in the rotation:

    Baker (team option) Slowey, Blackburn, Gibson, Wimmers

    The plan wasn't terrible, but it wasn't the reason for total demise of the Twins rotation.
    1. Baker cannot stay healthy and at that time (June of 2010) he hadn't been quite as fragile as he has been the last two years.
    2. No one forsaw what happened with Slowey way back then either. He appeared to be a very solid #2-3 for years to come.
    3. Blackburn sucks and he always has. Who knows what the FO was thinking here.
    4. Gibson should have had a year and a half under his belt by now and would arguably be the staff's ace by now.
    5. Wimmers would have had about 12-15 starts in 2012 and be a solid rotation guy in 2013.

    Injuries have crippled our staff and this string of bad luck coupled by the Blackburn contract has destroyed our rotation. So many argue how Mauer's contract hamstrings this team, but Blackburn's deal had a major cause and effect in the rotation both now and into next year.

  14. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    I think A LOT of this can be blamed on something other than the front office. Injuries to our top pitching prospects has crippled this team. Back in 2009, when Gibson was drafted, I am sure the FO thought that he would be the team's #2 or 3 starter right now if not sooner. Fast forward one year and the Twins draft another promising RHP Alex Wimmers that goes Rick Ankiel and is shut down for nearly all of 2011 and then in 2012 is on the verge of Tommy John. Scott Diamond has proven to be a great find as a Rule 5 pickup. But with a healthy Wimmers and Gibson, would the Twins have still made the move?


    I would assume that the FO projections for the 2012 and 2013 seasons would have been closer to this following the 2010 draft:

    2012 projections

    #1 - Francisco Liriano. Liriano was in the midst of a great campaign and looked like the Liriano of old. (Fail - underperformed)
    #2 - Scott Baker. Baker's stuff has always been very good. He just can't seem to stay healthy. (Bad Luck)
    #3 - Carl Pavano. Pavano was going to be a free agent but had pitched well. He would be brought back on a 2 year deal (OK-1st year, bad luck - 2nd year)
    #4 - Nick Blackburn. Blackburn was given a stupid and ridiculous contract so we knew he would be in the conversation. (Epic Fail)
    #5 - Kevin Slowey. Slowey was better than Blackburn. Period. NB's contract assured him a rotation spot. Left Slowey out in the cold. Then he pouted. (Fail)
    #6 - Kyle Gibson. Gibson was on the fast track to the majors and aside from a hiccup at AAA he had been excellent at every stop. (Bad Luck)
    #7 - Glen Perkins. Perkins wasn't exactly in good graces, but he still had potential as a starter. As a reliever he has been very good. (OK)
    #8 - Alex Wimmers. The FO probably thought that Wimmers would follow a similar path to the majors as Gibson. (Bad Luck)
    #9 - Brian Duensing. FO awarded Duensing a rotation spot after a solid 2010 season, but at this time he was still a reliever. (OK)

    2013

    Likely gone: Liriano-unrestricted FA, Pavano UFA


    Likely in the rotation:

    Baker (team option) Slowey, Blackburn, Gibson, Wimmers

    The plan wasn't terrible, but it wasn't the reason for total demise of the Twins rotation.
    1. Baker cannot stay healthy and at that time (June of 2010) he hadn't been quite as fragile as he has been the last two years.
    2. No one forsaw what happened with Slowey way back then either. He appeared to be a very solid #2-3 for years to come.
    3. Blackburn sucks and he always has. Who knows what the FO was thinking here.
    4. Gibson should have had a year and a half under his belt by now and would arguably be the staff's ace by now.
    5. Wimmers would have had about 12-15 starts in 2012 and be a solid rotation guy in 2013.

    Injuries have crippled our staff and this string of bad luck coupled by the Blackburn contract has destroyed our rotation. So many argue how Mauer's contract hamstrings this team, but Blackburn's deal had a major cause and effect in the rotation both now and into next year.
    Every team suffers injuries and prospects flame out. The. Twins issue is they drafted so poorly for 10 years thst they had no home grown pitching to fill in or to trade for other assets. Spending FA dollars on soft tossers like Blacky, Pavano, Marquis, Ortiz, Ponson and many others was like lighting money on fire. You can never win a playoff series in the AL with soft tossers.

  15. #35
    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
    Every team suffers injuries and prospects flame out. The. Twins issue is they drafted so poorly for 10 years thst they had no home grown pitching to fill in or to trade for other assets. Spending FA dollars on soft tossers like Blacky, Pavano, Marquis, Ortiz, Ponson and many others was like lighting money on fire. You can never win a playoff series in the AL with soft tossers.

    Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Twins suck. Why are you here?

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinswon1991 View Post
    Every team suffers injuries and prospects flame out. The. Twins issue is they drafted so poorly for 10 years thst they had no home grown pitching to fill in or to trade for other assets. Spending FA dollars on soft tossers like Blacky, Pavano, Marquis, Ortiz, Ponson and many others was like lighting money on fire. You can never win a playoff series in the AL with soft tossers.
    That is a pretty unfair statement. I am not talking about the entire draft. That can be very debatable depending on whomever you talk to. A couple of years ago the Twins had what many considered the best farm system in baseball. Prior to Buxton this year, the Twins have had 13 first round draft picks in the last 10 years (not counting the "sandwich" picks).

    2002 - OF Denard Span (20)
    2003 - 3B Matt Moses (21)
    2004 - SS Trevor Plouffe (20), P Glen Perkins (22), P Kyle Waldrop (25)
    2005 - P Matt Garza (25)
    2006 - 1B Chris Parmalee (20)
    2007 - OF Ben Revere (28)
    2008 - OF Aaron Hicks (14), P Carlos Gutierrez (27)
    2009 - P - Kyle Gibson (22)
    2010 - P - Alex Wimmers (21)
    2011 - SS - Levi Michael (30)

    On average, the Twins picks are picking around the 23 mark. You are absolutely right that "every team suffers injuries and prospects flame out," but the Twins have drafted relatively well in the higher rounds. Later round picks rarely produce quality major league players. Everyone on this list outside of Matt Moses Prior to 2008 has at least had a cup of coffee in the big leagues. 87.5% success rate is not drafting poorly considering that the Twins were not drafting lower than the 20th pick in any of those years and including Hicks at 14 in 2008 and Buxton in 2012 makes it twice in 11 years that the Twins had picks below the 20th selection.

    The FO saw what was coming and grabbed a couple of "soft tossers" (as you like to call them) in back to back years, with the teams low-20's pick. Gibson and Wimmers are and were excellent prospects both now and at the time of their respective drafts. If you look where the Felix Hernandez's and Justin Verlander's and other "flame-throwers" are drafted year in and year out. Its in the top 10.

    Picking up the Pavano, Hernandez, Marquis and Ponsons of the world is not the long-term answer, but maybe, just maybe the Twins thought they could catch a little lightning in a bottle and piece together a backend to their rotation. The Twins tried on R.A. Dickey and it bombed. The Mets gace it a go and it has been the best signing ever. Sometimes things come together, sometime you have a string of bad luck. The Twins tried numerous times to get some of these hard throwers. They traded Santana and got Phillip Humber as a part of the deal (top 3 pick) and he completely sucked with the Twins. Ramon Ortiz had a big arm, but couldn't avoid the middle of the plate.

    Injuries are the reason the Twins are where they are as well as Blackburn's terrible contract. A healthy rotation of Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Slowey and Gibson would have the Twins very competitive team in the AL Central.

  17. #37
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    Injuries aren't the reason the Twins are bad. Injuries took this team from bad to terrible but over ten years in the draft the farm system didn't feed very much talent to the majors. Obviously nobody expects the most recent drafts to have made the majors and there are still some good prospects in the system from these drafts but very little has helped the Twins yet. They got a good starter (Baker), a mediocre starter (Slowey), a pair of lefty relievers, the abomination known as Delmon before getting some help this season (Plouffe, Revere and Diamond (bullock)). Unless you're the Yankees you need to bring up more talent than this to stay competitive.

    Blackburn's terrible contract has nothing to do with the Twin's problems. It was a bad decision in hindsight but 5M this year and 5M next are not even remotely close to the reason that the Twins are in the position that they are in.

  18. #38
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    I did a quick scan of top ERA SPs for 2012 and here is a list of those either pre-arbitration or in arbitration:

    Pitcher, team, FA year

    Chris Sale, CHW 2017
    Jarrod Parker, OAK, 2018 (?)
    Matt Harrison, TEX, 2015
    Tommy Milone, OAK, 2018
    Jason Hammel, BAL, 2014
    Jeremy Hellickson, TB, 2017

    Jordan Zimmermann, WAS, 2016
    James McDonald, PIT, 2016
    Wade Miley, WAS, 2018
    Lance Lynn, STL, 2018
    Vance Worley, PHI, 2018
    Clayton Richard, SDG, 2015
    So really a "no" on all of these guys?

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