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Thread: Trade packages

  1. #1
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Trade packages

    Obviously proposing trades without any information that is relevant to actual possible or actual negotiations is ridiculous. And it is even more ridiculous when trying to think of trade packages (in the NBA it is much easier, but for MLB it is very difficult). But still, I just want to point out that maybe we should think of Twins trades as not A for B, but maybe AB or ABC for D or DE. What I mean is that someone like Matt Capps might not garner much attention, but adding a guy like Mastroianni (for instance) might be a tiny bit more of an enticement for some contending team looking to add a setup man and potentially OF depth or pinch-running capability. Capps and Burton might have marginal value to contenders, but adding Mastro or Carson or even Bigley might push trades through.

    I don't think that the Twins necessarily need to get *more* players than they are trading away as long as there is value back in terms of starting pitching.

  2. #2
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    How many SP do we really need? You can only pitch 5!

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    How many SP do we really need? You can only pitch 5!
    Sign one.
    Trade for one (MLB ready).

    Diamond
    Liriano
    Hendriks
    Walters
    DeVries
    Blackburn
    Deduno
    Bromberg
    Gibson

    3 out of 9. Save 3 more for injury and AAA experience.

    The Twins can trade for non-ready starting pitching as well.

  4. #4
    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    I think that part of the overall strategy should be to try to get some young starter prospects who have meaningful potential to become #1 or #2 MLB starters. Guys who will be ready when Sano and Rosario etc. are ready. Risky players who might not pan out, but who will be dazzling if they do pan out.

  5. #5
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Terry Ryan is not young (h#(( he's my age) and his length of stay as GM is undetermined (I believe he's still officially interim GM) so I think the Twins will want to bolster their roster for 2013 with an eye on the years after that. As shanewahl said, they need to acquire a pitcher with a chance to be a starter in trade either now or in the offseason and it's probably easier to pry a near-ready starter from a team now. They also need to sign somebody who is at least a step up from Marquis or today's Blackburn and then take their chances on what is in the system. I think Liriano is gone one way or another, I think Diamond gets a spot in the rotation unless he is injured and the Twins have to finda couple of guys from their organization.

  6. #6
    Teams will deal from depth. If they have multiple prospects (i.e. the Twins supposed outfield glut) they will deal a higher quality prospect for a short-term gain. But if that prospect is a year, or maybe two, away from contributing and taking the place of a veteran or possible free agent, the team MAY not be willing to part with the player. You can also argue the desire to get a 40-man roster prospect (like the Twins did Humber) who needs to play and prove themselves almost immediately or be lost. You want prospects that have shown some growth thru A to AA, have something you need in the organization (power, fielding, right/left, control) but you won't necessarily be offered the top tier (remember we got Gomez, not the other guy, who is young, too, but didn't take off). But the Twins also have to deal with the thought of $$$ saved in mind, combined with own signability, and better to get something known than unknown in the long run.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    Sign one.
    Trade for one (MLB ready).

    Diamond
    Liriano
    Hendriks
    Walters
    DeVries
    Blackburn
    Deduno
    Bromberg
    Gibson

    3 out of 9. Save 3 more for injury and AAA experience.

    The Twins can trade for non-ready starting pitching as well.
    Liriano will be gone (wish they re-sign him but he is not one of Gardy and Andy's inner circle) and Bromberg really needs to get his act together. Glad to not see Manship on the list Got to add Hermsen on that list. I suspect that he goes to pitch at the AFL, gets a ST invite and starts at AAA next season, but with a good spring you never know... Not sure about the status of Walters and Deduno as FAs or not... So this list really starts to become like Blackburn (who I hope goes away, maybe in the pen or some other place), Diamond, who has been a surprise this season and if he keeps his walks down and this GO/AO to where it is now (2.2) might be a decent middle of the rotation guy with a decent defensive IF behind him, and a bunch of question marks. And you probably at this point have to add Duensing and Swarzak to those question marks. You have to unless they go out and get pitchers.

    Who brings me to the next point, that has to do with the original premise... totally agree about the package. But I would add some "high prospect" minor leaguers as well. And not Mastroianni (because the others will bring more...) If you look at the OF situation after Span goes, you got Willingham at LF until 2015, Revere at CF until 2017, and a bunch of others (Arcia, Benson, Hicks, Morales) competing for a starting role at RF for 2013 and beyond. And Sano, potentially, Plouffe potentially (as soon as Span is traded) and Buxton in 2014 2015... So my math says that Hicks and Benson might be replaceable (and I am not even talking about the likes of Tosoni because he has been hurt all season). Benson will not bring much because he is also hurt, unless he kills it at Fort Myers and makes up to AAA this season. But Hicks is the sweet spot... Adding him to a package with Span, Lirano, Capps, Pavano, Morneau, (pick and chose) would allow the Twins to have more than one serviceable pieces and at least one with a high potential back. Got to trade from a position of strength. The Twins need a top SP prospect at AA level more than they need a top OF prospect at AA level. But they got to do it. And Hicks is blocked too.

  8. #8
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Liriano will be gone (wish they re-sign him but he is not one of Gardy and Andy's inner circle) and Bromberg really needs to get his act together. Glad to not see Manship on the list Got to add Hermsen on that list. I suspect that he goes to pitch at the AFL, gets a ST invite and starts at AAA next season, but with a good spring you never know... Not sure about the status of Walters and Deduno as FAs or not... So this list really starts to become like Blackburn (who I hope goes away, maybe in the pen or some other place), Diamond, who has been a surprise this season and if he keeps his walks down and this GO/AO to where it is now (2.2) might be a decent middle of the rotation guy with a decent defensive IF behind him, and a bunch of question marks. And you probably at this point have to add Duensing and Swarzak to those question marks. You have to unless they go out and get pitchers.

    Who brings me to the next point, that has to do with the original premise... totally agree about the package. But I would add some "high prospect" minor leaguers as well. And not Mastroianni (because the others will bring more...) If you look at the OF situation after Span goes, you got Willingham at LF until 2015, Revere at CF until 2017, and a bunch of others (Arcia, Benson, Hicks, Morales) competing for a starting role at RF for 2013 and beyond. And Sano, potentially, Plouffe potentially (as soon as Span is traded) and Buxton in 2014 2015... So my math says that Hicks and Benson might be replaceable (and I am not even talking about the likes of Tosoni because he has been hurt all season). Benson will not bring much because he is also hurt, unless he kills it at Fort Myers and makes up to AAA this season. But Hicks is the sweet spot... Adding him to a package with Span, Lirano, Capps, Pavano, Morneau, (pick and chose) would allow the Twins to have more than one serviceable pieces and at least one with a high potential back. Got to trade from a position of strength. The Twins need a top SP prospect at AA level more than they need a top OF prospect at AA level. But they got to do it. And Hicks is blocked too.

    I posted this somewhere, but offering Liriano that 1 year/$12 million (roughly) deal might be the best decision. It is unlikely that he signs that, but then they get picks (is it two?). If he does sign . . . it's only for one year and you hope and pray that he doesn't turn into a pumpkin as he seems to do every 4 months or so. Anyway, your general assessment of that pitching situation is correct, but I am pretty skeptical about Hermsen making it in the big leagues given how hard he throws. Stuifbergen (forgot him) and Bromberg need to get it together, true, but they could be in the mix at some point in 2013.

    I would not trade both Span and Hicks. One of them, in my view, has to stay around for a long time. Joe Benson's injury threw a wrench in all of this. As does Tosoni's situation. How is Arcia, defensively, by the way? Is he like Jason Kubel all-around, or just at the plate (please say the latter)? I also think some MR types like Guerra, Oliveros, Watts, Pugh, etc. should be added into the mix. That's the other bit of organizational depth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    I posted this somewhere, but offering Liriano that 1 year/$12 million (roughly) deal might be the best decision. It is unlikely that he signs that, but then they get picks (is it two?). If he does sign . . . it's only for one year and you hope and pray that he doesn't turn into a pumpkin as he seems to do every 4 months or so. Anyway, your general assessment of that pitching situation is correct, but I am pretty skeptical about Hermsen making it in the big leagues given how hard he throws. Stuifbergen (forgot him) and Bromberg need to get it together, true, but they could be in the mix at some point in 2013.

    I would not trade both Span and Hicks. One of them, in my view, has to stay around for a long time. Joe Benson's injury threw a wrench in all of this. As does Tosoni's situation. How is Arcia, defensively, by the way? Is he like Jason Kubel all-around, or just at the plate (please say the latter)? I also think some MR types like Guerra, Oliveros, Watts, Pugh, etc. should be added into the mix. That's the other bit of organizational depth.

    Agree 100% about them offering him a 1yr/$12.5 M deal but a. the Twins will not do it (because he is not part of the inner circle) and b. he will not accept because he will do much better as a free agent.

    Arcia is a lot like Kubel defensively too (but pre-knee blowout Kubel ) Decent arm, decent range not extremely athletic. I think his ceiling is higher than Kubel. Maglio Ordonez maybe. (but Arcia is a LHB)

    I know you don't like Revere, but he will keep the place warm and probably put better offensive numbers (if you include the SBs and not getting picked off on the bases) than Span and be much better defensively until Buxton arrives. Buxton is probably a year maybe 2 behind Hicks who is 2 years away. And he is the guy who makes Hicks tradeable... and you got to trade him because he will bring the best return. Again, the Twins are better off with that kind of level prospect at AA if he is a SP and not an OF. That is my premise... and if you can turn Hicks into a similar type prospect SP, you gotta do it in a heart beat. Forgot Kemper too... And I think that DJ Hicks, even though he looks like a 1B/DH type might be in the mix for a corner position

  10. #10
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    (I believe he's still officially interim GM)
    At the SABR meeting in late June he was asked that, and responded more tersely than for any other question, approximate this way: "my wife hasn't decided. Next question."

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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Got to trade from a position of strength. The Twins need a top SP prospect at AA level more than they need a top OF prospect at AA level... And Hicks is blocked too.
    You're right on the first point. Rather than have 3 blue chip OFs at Rochester next April, why not turn one of them into a blue chip SP? That would be a good way to fill a desperate organizational need without weakening the Major League roster.

    But Hicks is not blocked. If he sustains his AA performance into the Majors, there isn't anybody who can keep him out of the lineup. His OBP and range would be similar to Span and Revere, but with a far better IsoP and arm. Those guys either go to LF, the bench, or another team when Hicks is ready.

    Arcia is the guy the Twins should be most willing to part with. He doesn't hit lefties, he doesn't walk much, he doesn't steal bases. While he's not bad in the OF, his range isn't anywhere near Hicks' or Benson's. While they can still provide value through slumps with their legs, gloves and patience, Arcia can only be useful when he's annihilating RHPs. He'll be a solid major leaguer in the vein of Jason Kubel, but he'll be hard-pressed to contribute as much as the other two can.

  12. #12
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by James Richter View Post
    Arcia is the guy the Twins should be most willing to part with. He doesn't hit lefties, he doesn't walk much, he doesn't steal bases.
    To me, Arcia is projecting like an elite hitter by the time he's 25, as he's holding his own in his short time so far at AA at age 21. The walks will come - Span wasn't walking much when he was at the same stage either. I don't have the L/R splits to go by but I have to believe he can overcome a deficiency if one is there - wishful thinking on my part, so I'm saying I'd go with my coaches and scouts on whatever they say about that.

    I know you're talking about which minor leaguer to package up, but the comparison I did to Span just confirms to me that Span is the one to trade for a AA pitcher with potential, if you're willing to trade Arcia for that. Cover Span's absence with stopgaps like Revere or even Mastro until Hicks/Arcia are ready, in 2014, say. Span's a table-setter, as are Revere and Mastro, and too many of those put your roster out of whack. In the long run, I think we'll look back at Span as a capable but very average CFer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    In the long run, I think we'll look back at Span as a capable but very average CFer.
    This is so true. He is a lot like a former Twins' CFer... and their career numbers are even eerily similar.

    Span's career numbers are .283/.357/.385 and that guys' .256/.358/.372 . And pretty similar players on the field, but the other guy was probably a bit better and did not have Span's concentration lapses on the bases...

    Any idea who I am talking about? And that guy would probably be the definition of "average"...

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Rich Becker. Hmm. I am actually surprised that Becker was that productive. Those were the days when I basically cried every time a Twins game started though.

    Note of clarification: it isn't that I don't like Revere, I just never expected him to produce like he has this year. I would have expected about a .680 OPS ceiling for him this year.

    I don't like the idea of losing both Span and Hicks because I don't like losing that kind of OBP potential at the top (unless, you know, I was promised that Joe Mauer would be batting second in such a scenario . . . ).

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    When we're talking about Span's career numbers, I think the decent thing to do would be to give him a mulligan on the two weeks he spent last August trying to play through a concussion. When he's had depth perception, he's hit .286/.363/.390, which is a fair bit better than Mr. Becker, who accumulated his numbers in the midst of an era in which offense was awfully cheap...

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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    This is so true. He is a lot like a former Twins' CFer... and their career numbers are even eerily similar.

    Span's career numbers are .283/.357/.385 and that guys' .256/.358/.372 . And pretty similar players on the field, but the other guy was probably a bit better and did not have Span's concentration lapses on the bases...

    Any idea who I am talking about? And that guy would probably be the definition of "average"...
    Becker wasn't an avg player, he was a bad player. For a guy who claims the Twins FO is out of touch, it's a bit of a reach for you to compare slash lines to make your claim. Span has already doubled Becker's career WAR, in fewer seasons.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    This is so true. He is a lot like a former Twins' CFer... and their career numbers are even eerily similar.

    Span's career numbers are .283/.357/.385 and that guys' .256/.358/.372 . And pretty similar players on the field, but the other guy was probably a bit better and did not have Span's concentration lapses on the bases...

    Any idea who I am talking about? And that guy would probably be the definition of "average"...
    Great post!

  18. #18
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Becker wasn't an avg player, he was a bad player. For a guy who claims the Twins FO is out of touch, it's a bit of a reach for you to compare slash lines to make your claim. Span has already doubled Becker's career WAR, in fewer seasons.
    haha. I didn't check the stats further.

  19. #19
    I am also in the camp that believes Span is replaceable, and Revere can be a solid stop gap until Hicks is ready. It's isn't that I believe we need to drop Span for any offer that comes across, but if you can get much needed pitching for him, you need to make that deal.

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