Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: Liriano's Value

  1. #1
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,460
    Like
    64
    Liked 144 Times in 93 Posts
    Blog Entries
    30

    Liriano's Value

    I am using the work of Sky Andrecheck and Victor Wang to help assess Liriano's value. The work was done in 2009 so the value may be off but the relative value of prospects vs draft pick should be similar.

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...r-compensation

    With the help of the discussion about compensation, I believe that the Twins would receive one pick for Liriano after the first round (assuming they make a qualifying offer). I hope I am incorrect and they also get the pick forfeited by the signing team.

    If it is just one pick, it's value is about 2.6 million. That would be about equivalent to an under 22 grade C pitcher (2.1 million) combined with an under 22 Grade C hitter (0.7 million). The grades studied are taken from John Sickels work. A grade C would be probably be outside a team's top 10 of a typical organization They would not be top 100 BBA prospects.

    It appears that the lower bar of Liriano's value is two A-Ball prospects with some upside but no guaranteed future in the major leagues. These guys would not help in 2013. A pitcher close to contributing at the major league level seems out of the question.

    Of course, if I understand the new CBA incorrectly and the Twins get two picks the overall value is closer to 8 million raising the bar. The Twins would then expect a team to give up a top 10 pitching prospect (still outside BBA's top 100).

  2. #2
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,610
    Like
    254
    Liked 191 Times in 117 Posts
    Under the new CBA, if Liriano was offered arbitration (avg salary of top 125 salaries -estimated to be about 12.5m) and signed with another team, the Twins would get a supp pick and that teams highest pick, so long as it's not a top 10 pick. (P. 89 of this link : http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf)

    That said, no one would outbid the Twins for Liriano if they offered him arbitration so we'd have him back.

  3. #3
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
    Posts
    2,429
    Twitter
    @twinsgeek
    Like
    1
    Liked 157 Times in 93 Posts
    Blog Entries
    240
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post

    That said, no one would outbid the Twins for Liriano if they offered him arbitration so we'd have him back.
    I'm not 10% sure that's true. I think he would take the offer, but it's possible that a team could offer 3/27 and he would nab that instead.

  4. #4
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,460
    Like
    64
    Liked 144 Times in 93 Posts
    Blog Entries
    30
    I read page 89 again and it is not clear to me that the Twins would receive the forfeited pick. It is not explicitly stated. Until today, I was sure it was two. I have been convinced otherwise.

    As for timing, Liriano and the Twins will have 5 days following the season to work out an offer. After that Liriano will have accepted or enter free agency. The Twins will be bidding against Liriano's perception of his worth. I agree with John that he might see a three year deal as a safer road even at 8-9 million per year.

  5. #5
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
    Posts
    1,674
    Twitter
    @nnelson9
    Like
    6
    Liked 77 Times in 29 Posts
    Blog Entries
    318
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    I'm not 10% sure that's true. I think he would take the offer, but it's possible that a team could offer 3/27 and he would nab that instead.
    A lot of that depends on how he finishes the year, too. Right now that horrible month of April is still inflating his numbers. If he keeps pitching the way he is now for two more months, it will be a lot easier to envision some team offering him a three-year deal. Keep in mind he's still only 28.

  6. #6
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
    Posts
    6,495
    Like
    3,509
    Liked 3,012 Times in 1,280 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    I'm not 10% sure that's true. I think he would take the offer, but it's possible that a team could offer 3/27 and he would nab that instead.
    Why not remove the doubt and offer 3/$24 now? Then you'll know.

  7. #7
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,394
    Like
    52
    Liked 36 Times in 24 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Why not remove the doubt and offer 3/$24 now? Then you'll know.
    Because nobody wants to see Liriano from April for the next 3 years which at this point could be a very real possibility. You can always trade him and then offer him 3/$24 after the season.

  8. #8
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
    Posts
    8,671
    Like
    4,726
    Liked 2,200 Times in 1,242 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    A part of me wants Liriano pitching for us in 2013 cuz we need the pitching so bad and we need a staff ace. Another part of me wants him forcibly removed from the clubhouse by armed security personnel and asked never to return.

    I would love to be a fly on Terry Ryan's cell phone. I would love to know exactly what other clubs think of our boy Frankie.

    By the way... If I was a fly on Terry Ryan's cell phone... I would also fly into his ear and become... You guessed it... A bug in his ear.

  9. #9
    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
    Posts
    5,004
    Like
    4,305
    Liked 696 Times in 365 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    A part of me wants Liriano pitching for us in 2013 cuz we need the pitching so bad and we need a staff ace. Another part of me wants him forcibly removed from the clubhouse by armed security personnel and asked never to return.
    Well said, Brian. Liriano has huge upside and huge downside. The Twins are desperate for an ace, but Liriano has disappointed multiple times. Liriano has great stuff, but is streaky as hell.

    I wish the Twins had a crystal ball.

  10. #10
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
    Posts
    8,671
    Like
    4,726
    Liked 2,200 Times in 1,242 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by glunn View Post
    Well said, Brian. Liriano has huge upside and huge downside. The Twins are desperate for an ace, but Liriano has disappointed multiple times. Liriano has great stuff, but is streaky as hell.

    I wish the Twins had a crystal ball.
    I'd rather have that Crystal Ball for myself. Wouldn't you rather have it in your hands?

    A Crystal Ball would have some amazing value. I love my Twins but me first.

  11. #11
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,531
    Like
    60
    Liked 337 Times in 214 Posts
    Sounds like the Phillies and Cole Hamel's are getting close to an extension. If this works out, the Twins need Milwaukee to sweep Pittsburgh this weekend to get back in the playoff hunt and keep Zack Greinke in a Brewer uniform the rest of the season. Taking the top two pitchers off the board should help the value of the second tier pitchers.

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,460
    Like
    64
    Liked 144 Times in 93 Posts
    Blog Entries
    30
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I am using the work of Sky Andrecheck and Victor Wang to help assess Liriano's value. The work was done in 2009 so the value may be off but the relative value of prospects vs draft pick should be similar.

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...r-compensation

    With the help of the discussion about compensation, I believe that the Twins would receive one pick for Liriano after the first round (assuming they make a qualifying offer). I hope I am incorrect and they also get the pick forfeited by the signing team.

    If it is just one pick, it's value is about 2.6 million. That would be about equivalent to a 22 year old grade C pitcher (2.1 million) combined with a 22 year old Grade C hitter (0.7 million). The grades studied are taken from John Sickels work. A grade C would be probably be outside a team's top 10 of a typical organization They would not be top 100 BBA prospects.
    The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.

  13. #13
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,610
    Like
    254
    Liked 191 Times in 117 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.
    Good work. I had hoped we'd get another teams failed starter and have our own reclamation project. So what should we get for Span?

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,701
    Like
    7
    Liked 20 Times in 10 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.
    That is a really good analysis, probably should have been required reading for anyone bitching and moaning about this trade. I still want to know what people expected.
    Papers...business papers.

  15. #15
    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
    Posts
    1,080
    Like
    132
    Liked 169 Times in 79 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The comment was from more than a week ago, but was pretty close. The Twins as well as other organizations know the value of rental players who have put up about 0 WAR in 2011-2012. Our fan base expected so much more.
    Very nice. Thank you.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.