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Thread: Appel not signing?

  1. #21
    This is fascinating to me. Didn't they turn down preliminary offers from Houston of around $6 million? What exactly was the point of driving a hard bargain with the teams at the top of the draft board, if the teams further down below CAN'T offer more money by the rules?

    Also, doesn't PIT have the option of exceeding the signing bonus cap this year and forfeiting their pick next year? Might it even make sense for them to do so, if they got a pitcher who is Top 3 talent this year, and could end up picking 8th, 12th, 15th, or whatever next year?

    If they can't sign Appel, they basically "forfeit" this pick anyway, though I assume there's some type of compensatory pick for them next year if that happens.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    doesn't PIT have the option of exceeding the signing bonus cap this year and forfeiting their pick next year? Might it even make sense for them to do so, if they got a pitcher who is Top 3 talent this year, and could end up picking 8th, 12th, 15th, or whatever next year?

    If they can't sign Appel, they basically "forfeit" this pick anyway, though I assume there's some type of compensatory pick for them next year if that happens.
    There is no way they will go over to the point where they lose next year's pick. Appel is not worth that much. Also, if they don't sign him, they would get the #9 pick next year along with their other 1st round pick that will be determined at the end of the regular season.

  3. #23
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    I hope he doesn't sign, and blows out his arm.

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    This is fascinating to me. Didn't they turn down preliminary offers from Houston of around $6 million? What exactly was the point of driving a hard bargain with the teams at the top of the draft board, if the teams further down below CAN'T offer more money by the rules?
    That was the point of the new CBA - they were trying to reduce the impact of "signability" (draftees deciding who they're going to play for by telling teams whether they would sign or not) on the draft by basically predetermining how much each pick would be worth. Obviously, agents hate the new rules, and I think Boras is intentionally trying to spike the system before it gets off the ground. We'll see if it works.

  5. #25
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sbknudson View Post
    That was the point of the new CBA - they were trying to reduce the impact of "signability" (draftees deciding who they're going to play for by telling teams whether they would sign or not) on the draft by basically predetermining how much each pick would be worth. Obviously, agents hate the new rules, and I think Boras is intentionally trying to spike the system before it gets off the ground. We'll see if it works.
    He's going to fail miserably. Everybody except agents like this rule. The owners, the front offices, the MLBPA... They're all supporters of this system.

    Scott Boras can suck it.

  6. #26
    Law is in deep, deep speculation land (and not at all representative of industry consensus) when he says Appel is the best bet to go 1.1. You never really know how a draft is going to shape up until a couple months out, anyway.

    Smart Pirates message boards are basically A-OK if he walks, content that next year's draft can't be worse. And lots of very smart folks are just not high on Appel at all: did you hear how underwhelmed Goldtein was on his podcast a couple months ago?

    But as far as the link goes: Yeah, it's Heyman, ergo it's Boras. It's just posturing, and nobody knows anything.

    This Pirates fan, FWIW, hopes they sign Buehler with most of the extra money, then offer Appel slot plus any leftover crumbs.

  7. #27
    Right I heard this too and it made no sense that he turned it down. Obviously then the Astros weren't going to take him first. The further down he went, the less his slot was worth. It's a great system. This poor kid either didn't do his research or hired the wrong agent (or both).

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    Also, doesn't PIT have the option of exceeding the signing bonus cap this year and forfeiting their pick next year? Might it even make sense for them to do so, if they got a pitcher who is Top 3 talent this year, and could end up picking 8th, 12th, 15th, or whatever next year?
    I think you can (and Boras probably is) make the argument that Appel now is worth more than what the Pirates should have expected with the 8th overall pick and next year's pick sitting at roughly #20 or worse if Pirates success continues. And I think the Pirates are likely to get an extra pick in next years draft after the first round due to their low revenue. Still, if I were the Pirates, I'd hope he signs for the 3.8 or so and starts his pro career early.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I think you can (and Boras probably is) make the argument that Appel now is worth more than what the Pirates should have expected with the 8th overall pick and next year's pick sitting at roughly #20 or worse if Pirates success continues. And I think the Pirates are likely to get an extra pick in next years draft after the first round due to their low revenue. Still, if I were the Pirates, I'd hope he signs for the 3.8 or so and starts his pro career early.
    Pirates pick next year for Appel would be #8b.

  10. #30
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    I'm sure his stock will go up next year when he's a senior instead of a junior with another 120 hard innings tacked on his shoulder. Those college coaches at the big programs never abuse their pitchers in a way that would make MLB scouts cringe.

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Good luck with this one kid! A bird in the hand is better than Tommy John surgery next year!

  12. #32
    Can a player still increase their signing bonus by taking it long-term, like say $10 million over three years with a guarantee that they go to spring training and added immediately to the 40-man, et al? Or was that thrown out the door with the new agreements?

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I hope he doesn't sign, and blows out his arm.
    Why would anyone wish this on someone? He has every right not to sign if he wants. Maybe he really likes college. Maybe he hates Pittsburgh. What difference does it make why he doesn't sign?
    Lighten up Francis....

  14. #34
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    No way they forfeight their pick next year to take Appel. They get pick 9 (or 8b) if they don't sign him. And, while that player may not be as good as Appel, they also get their regular pick. I wouldn't trade picks 8 and 15-20 for Appel.
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #35
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I just wish that NCAA was fair and treated baseball players like football players so Appel would lose his eligibility for hiring a professional agent. If that were the case, the only place he could play ball in the US is Independent or beer leagues. No college kids should be able to influence the integrity of the draft. If he does not sign and goes to College for another season and gets hurt, he is up the proverbial creek. So it is silly not to do it, since $3.4 M is pretty high with the new standards...
    Last edited by Thrylos; 07-10-2012 at 05:56 PM.
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  16. #36
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosterman View Post
    Can a player still increase their signing bonus by taking it long-term, like say $10 million over three years with a guarantee that they go to spring training and added immediately to the 40-man, et al? Or was that thrown out the door with the new agreements?
    Those were Major League Contracts. Delmon had one of those. They are history with the new CBA.
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  17. #37
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I think you can (and Boras probably is) make the argument that Appel now is worth more than what the Pirates should have expected with the 8th overall pick and next year's pick sitting at roughly #20 or worse if Pirates success continues. And I think the Pirates are likely to get an extra pick in next years draft after the first round due to their low revenue. Still, if I were the Pirates, I'd hope he signs for the 3.8 or so and starts his pro career early.

    And if he does not sign. The Pirates will get the 9th pick of next years draft as a compensation per the new CBA. The only one to lose here is Boras/Appel
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  18. #38
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Why would anyone wish this on someone? He has every right not to sign if he wants. Maybe he really likes college. Maybe he hates Pittsburgh. What difference does it make why he doesn't sign?
    He certainly does.

    I hope he blows out his arm, blows his chances of ever playing major league baseball, and blows $3+M. Maybe Scott Boras will make it up to him.

    And maybe in the future the Twins won't have to fight with some draft pick to get him to sign.

  19. #39
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    I have to admit that I was a huge skeptic of the new CBA and the impact it would have on the draft, but it has been a huge success. Players are getting signed quickly and getting pro experience, smart teams are still able to leverage their positions, and there is now more equity in overall draft outlays. To top it off there is no evidence that I have seen that MLB lost players to other sports.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    And if he does not sign. The Pirates will get the 9th pick of next years draft as a compensation per the new CBA. The only one to lose here is Boras/Appel
    Appel would probably be the biggest loser in that situation but it could work out for him. He could be drafted by the Cubs #2 and get 6m or so and then haunt the Pirates for a decade.

    The Pirates will be losers too, if they don't sign Appel. They'll lose a year of development time of a potential top prospect and, as a team pretty reliant on its farm system to develop players, that would hurt. True, they'll get a reimbursement pick next year but that still doesn't make up for their loss this year. It just mitigates it some. That's why you don't see teams blowing top picks in one year, hoping to get a better pick in the next years draft.

    And, while I think it's a stupid idea, going over slot for Appel isn't crazy, depending on how the Pirates view him. I think most Twins would be ok with the idea of losing the rights to a Levi Michael type for a true ace. (esp since the Pirates have another first round supp pick to play with).

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