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Thread: Settling the dust

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    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Settling the dust

    During the All-Star break the Twins are going to have to make a decision on what direction to go with the rest of the season, and how to get better going into 2013. It's pretty obvious this team just isn't going anywhere. A couple things to keep in mind going into next year.

    1) the payroll would allow for a big FA signing, even as big as Hammels (my preference)
    2) the starting rotation could include Baker and Gibson by June
    3) Span's trade value is as high as it will ever be
    3)b) Revere looks like he can play CF and be a productive MLB hitter
    4) they still need a 2b
    5) the bullpen is fine.... please don't trade for more relief pitchers
    6) Blackburn, Pavano, Duensing shouldn't be apart of any rotation ever
    7) Liriano is still a cock tease

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    1) No way this happens while they have this many issues to resolve.

    8) Get Capps off the DL and back on the mound to create some minuscule value.
    9) " Pavano " " " " " " " " " " " " " .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    During the All-Star break the Twins are going to have to make a decision on what direction to go with the rest of the season, and how to get better going into 2013. It's pretty obvious this team just isn't going anywhere. A couple things to keep in mind going into next year.

    1) the payroll would allow for a big FA signing, even as big as Hammels (my preference)
    2) the starting rotation could include Baker and Gibson by June
    3) Span's trade value is as high as it will ever be
    3)b) Revere looks like he can play CF and be a productive MLB hitter
    4) they still need a 2b
    5) the bullpen is fine.... please don't trade for more relief pitchers
    6) Blackburn, Pavano, Duensing shouldn't be apart of any rotation ever
    7) Liriano is still a cock tease
    1) we fans should be outraged if the Twins blow their wad on Hamels or Grienke
    2) Counting on an arm <18 months from TJ has been a pretty bad bet
    3) Trade Span if you get the right offer. He will (should) still have good value in the off-season
    4) I agree. You can add Shortstop to that as well.
    5) Way to jinx the bullpen
    6) A revolving door of those three isn't crippling. Their presence is holding back exactly zero more qualified pitchers.
    7) I wish some team had a Dave Duncan type who was convinced he could 'fix' him and had the pull to blow the Twins away with an offer.

    *JCTwins - 8 &9 are the most frustrating elements of the trade season, IMO. Neither would bring back a haul, but both could help JR rebuild the system.
    Last edited by crapforks; 06-29-2012 at 11:39 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by crapforks View Post
    2) Counting on an arm >18 months from TJ has been a pretty bad bet .
    Fairly sure you meant to have <? Gibson will be well past that by June of next year, if I'm not mistaken.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    Fairly sure you meant to have <? Gibson will be well past that by June of next year, if I'm not mistaken.
    Oops. You're right, my bad. And I was referring to Baker. Depending on Gibson to produce in the MLB rotation has its own folly.

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    I thought it was widely accepted that Baker was gone (unofficially). There is no way they will pay a pitcher coming off TJ 9 million. MLB ready middle infielders and minor league pitchers should be the primary acquisitions at the deadline.

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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    I thought it was widely accepted that Baker was gone (unofficially). There is no way they will pay a pitcher coming off TJ 9 million. MLB ready middle infielders and minor league pitchers should be the primary acquisitions at the deadline.
    I believe the Twins could decline Baker's option, making him a free agent, and offer him a more competitive deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Curt View Post
    I believe the Twins could decline Baker's option, making him a free agent, and offer him a more competitive deal.
    Possible, but my point is that pitchers, although ready to pitch 10-15 months after TJ, are rarely effective shortly after that time frame expires. I'll try and look up some numbers, but I readily admit that my stance is mostly anecdotal; read: Nathan, Liriano, Milton, etc.

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    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crapforks View Post
    Possible, but my point is that pitchers, although ready to pitch 10-15 months after TJ, are rarely effective shortly after that time frame expires. I'll try and look up some numbers, but I readily admit that my stance is mostly anecdotal; read: Nathan, Liriano, Milton, etc.
    In the case of Nathan and Liriano they depended on a hard slider for a strike-out pitch. Baker gets strike-outs with 3 pitches: curve, change-up and fastball. His delivery is deceptive, which is one of the major reasons he has success. Its impossible to say he will be as good as he was when he got injured, but I don't think its outlandish to think he will still be a quality MLB pitcher. I don't think the Twins will need him to be excellent, they need him to be a quality pitcher.

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    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    I thought it was widely accepted that Baker was gone (unofficially). There is no way they will pay a pitcher coming off TJ 9 million.
    Quite correct - which is why nobody else will offer him that either. The door is open to renegotiating his contract for next year.

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    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    In the case of Nathan and Liriano they depended on a hard slider for a strike-out pitch. Baker gets strike-outs with 3 pitches: curve, change-up and fastball. His delivery is deceptive, which is one of the major reasons he has success. Its impossible to say he will be as good as he was when he got injured, but I don't think its outlandish to think he will still be a quality MLB pitcher. I don't think the Twins will need him to be excellent, they need him to be a quality pitcher.
    On the other hand, Baker relies more heavily on command than Nathan or Liriano. Command is often one of the things TJ recipients struggle to recover immediately after the surgery.

    I think he'll be fine in the long run but 2013 is a huge question mark.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rocketpig View Post
    On the other hand, Baker relies more heavily on command than Nathan or Liriano. Command is often one of the things TJ recipients struggle to recover immediately after the surgery.

    I think he'll be fine in the long run but 2013 is a huge question mark.
    2013 will be Baker's age 31 season. 2014 will be his age 32 season. He is not a spring chicken. Not sure that there is a long run for him. He will be past his prime when he gets healthy. And nobody knows when he will be healthy.

    Any sort of a deal other than $1-2M base (plus the buyout of his option) with incentives for 2013 plus some sort of team-friendly based 2014 if he reaches those incentives would be nuts.

    As far as 2013 goes, looks like the ones under contract (and some of them will be MiLB FAs who would need to be re-signed) with possibilities for the rotation would be (alphabetical order) :

    Blackburn
    Deduno
    De Vries
    Diamond
    Duensing
    French
    Gibson
    Hendriks
    Hirschfeld
    Manship
    Swarzak
    Walters

    pick 5 might be what the Twins do.
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    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    During the All-Star break the Twins are going to have to make a decision on what direction to go with the rest of the season, and how to get better going into 2013. It's pretty obvious this team just isn't going anywhere. A couple things to keep in mind going into next year.

    1) the payroll would allow for a big FA signing, even as big as Hammels (my preference)
    2) the starting rotation could include Baker and Gibson by June
    3) Span's trade value is as high as it will ever be
    3)b) Revere looks like he can play CF and be a productive MLB hitter
    4) they still need a 2b
    5) the bullpen is fine.... please don't trade for more relief pitchers
    6) Blackburn, Pavano, Duensing shouldn't be apart of any rotation ever
    7) Liriano is still a cock tease

    I agree that Duensing should be in the pen but would'nt hate him a s a 5th starter. They have to bit the bullet and swallow Blackies remaining contract and get rid of him. I'd even take a rookie ball prospect for him and pay his full salary to some team to take him just so we get something. I agree about Baker( I'd take a chnace on him at a reduced rate) and Gibson but if Gibson pitches this yr and has no setbacks he can be in the rotaion coming out of ST next yr. Span and Liriano to a lesser extent will definitely be traded or at least offered. It's Ben's time and yes we need more consistency at 2B and hope Dozier continues to improve and that Plouffe isn't a mirage. Plus sign a FA #1 starter.

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    1) I think Grienke is more likely, but either way I think they should go for it IF they can cover their other issues
    2) I wouldn't count on either Baker or Gibson next year, in the same way nobody really counted on Scott Diamond, PJ Walters, Liam Hendricks, or Cole De Vries to be in the rotation (or even with the major league club this year. It would be a wonderful surprise if Baker could spring back to form and Gibson could finally fulfill his potential, but we should be planning that they'll be pitching for the Red Wings or on rehab assignment all year long.
    3) Span is far more valuable to other teams than he is to the Twins right now, and his internal value will only decrease as guys like Benson, Hicks, and Buxton move up through the minors. Let's cash him in.
    4) I'm actually ok with Carroll/Casilla/Dozier covering the middle infield. It certainly could be improved, but it doesn't need to be for next year. Carroll and Dozier are both under contract for next year, and Casilla isn't eligible for Free Agency so he won't cost much. I'd rather we go with what we got right now and start looking to upgrade at the trade deadline next year (if we're competing) or the 2013 offseason.
    5) Trading for relievers wouldn't make sense. I'm all for them bringing in some low-investment FA's over the offseason though, if only just to create some competition in ST. We might stumble on another Burton, we might get another Zumaya. Worth a cheap gamble either way.
    6) I want to see Pavano pitch healthy this year. He has done well for us in the past, I'm not quite ready to give up on him entirely. Duensing is much more valuable to us as bullpen guy who can be a LOOGY, a long reliever, or a spot starter. Locking him into the rotation limits his usefulness to this club, and he isn't really much of an upgrade over De Vries or Walters.
    7) Had we gotten a native-spanish speaking sports psychologist (or team of them) on our staff in 2008, Liriano could have won three Cy Young's by now, and Casilla and Gomez could be perennial Gold Glove all-stars. I'm all for passing Liriano off to somebody else if they're willing to offer us something decent, but it does really bother me that we've had three guys in the past few years who had fantastic raw talent and have been maddeningly inconsistent, largely because of mental issues. I hope we keep seeking out young latino hot shots, but I hope the Twins really take a hard look at their organization and see if there are things that need to be changed so we don't have these situations come up again.


    I'm going to add to your list:
    8) Where does Plouffe play long-term? He largely landed at 3b because Valencia/Burroughs sucked, and Revere earned a starting spot. That doesn't mean it's the best spot for him long term though. Assuming Span gets traded, you end up with an opening in RF. If they want to go back to the "Plouffe as an OF" plan, that hole could shift to 3b. Right now I don't think we have anyone in the minors that we could even pencil in as an everyday player at RF or 3b. It may come down to which hole is easier to fill, rather than where Plouffe can actually play best.
    9) Capps is as good as gone as a closer. A lot of the bull pen decisions will hinge on how they plan to cover that role next year. Let's just hope they don't guy buy another closer.

  15. #15
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I wouldn't want to touch Baker with a ten foot pole for 2013. It will be his recovery year from TJ and I doubt he'll be effective during the season. I think the Twins should give Duensing the rest of this season to see how effective he can be as a starter. If yes, hey they filled a hole in a rotation full of holes and if no, he can go back and be an asset in the bullpen. Similarly, Casilla should be given an extended look at second base. He hasn't hit much but he seems to make an outstanding defensive play almost every game. He, like Revere, can make a difference on the bases and the Twins don't have anything besides possibly Florimon to help in the middle infield. Plouffe has certainly exceeded expectations as a third baseman and he has really hit well-again there isn't much in the minors that could move him off third base. My fondest hope is that Plouffe will add proficiency vs. RH pitching and better performance with runners on base for the rest of this year and into the next.

    It was noted in another thread that all of the position players are under team control through next year. Given the lack of performing talent at AA and AAA, the core of this team will likely stay pretty close to what it is right now. A Span trade wouldn't surprise me and looks like it would be worthwhile with Revere showing his ability to hit, run down balls and steal bases.

    I also hope that Capps gets back out there soon and is effective so that he can be dealt. If not, I'm not sure the Twins will let him go in the offseason. You can't have too much pitching and his contract is reasonable.

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