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Thread: Twins more willing to trade Span

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Except it won't be Bundy or even close to a Bundy type guy..
    I know won't get Bundy but in reality you shouldn't ex players off the list just because they are 3 years away, that was my point.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    I really want Span to be traded because I think Revere is our leadoff guy and CF. However, if a trade were completed, I keep getting the feeling that whatever the Twins get in return will have me disappointed.

  3. #23
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    • Quote Originally Posted by glunn View Post
      Excellent analysis, Brian. A bidding war between contending teams would produce the best value,
    Thanks Glunn... It's just a bunch of names thown together quickly but I appreciate it. You have a good soul.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    Thanks Glunn... You have a good soul.
    Do you have the statistics to back that up? (That was the first time I've made myself giggle in a while.)

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    Do you have the statistics to back that up? (That was the first time I've made myself giggle in a while.)
    Riverbrian has a 1.72 KSFT (Kittens Saved from Trees). That's slightly above average (1.70) so I say he gets the call. That's also a new advanced sabermetric, so it took me a while to calculate.

  6. #26
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    There's just nothing special about Span that would make me want to give something up for him.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Ultima Ratio's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    There's just nothing special about Span that would make me want to give something up for him.
    Yep, we've already got you down for that. Let us know if anything changes.
    Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.

  8. #28
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Is having "something special" a requirement for making a trade now?
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    I would be very surprised if the return was a top 50 prospect. Perhaps a top 100 guy, but more likely a guy in that 100-200 range would be the headliner for Span. Span and Beltran are two very different classes of player on the offensive end, and that's where the primary prospect value was driven. The Giants also got two draft picks out of the deal as well, which has some value. Wheeler was not a top 50 prospect coming into 2011, so even Beltran didn't warrant a top 50 guy.

    Ummm...

  10. #30
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    The Giants also got two draft picks out of the deal as well, which has some value.
    Thats an interesting point. Will buyers give up less for potential free agents now that thy DON'T get back draft picks when they walk? Not that important for Span, but it is for others.

    JM$.02, I thnk Span is worth quite a bit. He has the solid D, good OBP, and is a true lead off guy that can play a defensive position. I wrote a story a few weeks ago finding teams & there are even more now.

  11. #31
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    Damn you guys.

    By most accounts in New York, Alderson pulled off a coup. It was apparent Beltran would leave as a free agent, but fans and media were skeptical that Alderson could acquire a big-time prospect for a two-month rental who contractually can't be offered arbitration and, therefore, won't generate compensatory draft picks.
    Remember how Verve (and others) were so upset that the Twinks didn't deal Cuddy at the deadline? Sure he doesn't have the name of Beltran, but at least that team would get a draft pick in return (which ended up being Berrios). Some GM would have caved in Billy Smith style and given the Twinks a real nice piece IMO.

    But I kinda like Berrios...who knows.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    Thats an interesting point. Will buyers give up less for potential free agents now that thy DON'T get back draft picks when they walk? Not that important for Span, but it is for others.

    JM$.02, I thnk Span is worth quite a bit. He has the solid D, good OBP, and is a true lead off guy that can play a defensive position. I wrote a story a few weeks ago finding teams & there are even more now.
    Draft picks have never been a big part of the equation when a player is signed for 2.5 seasons. The Twins should absolutely be expecting a top 50 prospect for dealing Span. I also understand that pitching is a big need but I would take the best prospect package instead of looking just for pitching. When you trade/draft for need you usually lose.

    FWIW - a draft pick is still possible if you offer arb and are willing to pay 10-12M if the player accepts.

  13. #33
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    There's Span the player and there's Span the contract. The sum of both is worth substantial pieces, whether at the deadline or next offseason. Given the public rumors over that last year, the Twins seem intent on capitalizing on Span's current value, which can only decrease over time...

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ultima Ratio View Post
    Yep, we've already got you down for that. Let us know if anything changes.

    OK, if you're a contending team why would you trade for him? About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.

  15. #35
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.
    Wow, are you serious?

    For one thing, he has the 7th highest WAR of any CF this year, trailing guys like Hamilton, McCutchen, Trout and Bourn. Fan Graphs has him as the 3rd best defensive CF this year as well, trailing only Bourn and Trout and also ranks in the top ten for .BA and OBP for all CF, his .BABIP is about 30 points lower then his career average which indicates he is getting a bit unlucky at the plate and his average, obp and sulgging should all continue to improve as well. He has the 3rd lowest K rate which is exactly what you want out of a leadoff or #2 hitter type guy, hes going to put the ball in play.

    Through on top of it that you would have Span for 3+ years and you have yourselves a nice little ball player. Hell I could even see a non contending team like Seattle trading for Span.(Maybe not at the deadline obviously, but heading into next season)

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Wow, are you serious?

    For one thing, he has the 7th highest WAR of any CF this year, trailing guys like Hamilton, McCutchen, Trout and Bourn. Fan Graphs has him as the 3rd best defensive CF this year as well, trailing only Bourn and Trout and also ranks in the top ten for .BA and OBP for all CF, his .BABIP is about 30 points lower then his career average which indicates he is getting a bit unlucky at the plate and his average, obp and sulgging should all continue to improve as well. He has the 3rd lowest K rate which is exactly what you want out of a leadoff or #2 hitter type guy, hes going to put the ball in play.

    Through on top of it that you would have Span for 3+ years and you have yourselves a nice little ball player. Hell I could even see a non contending team like Seattle trading for Span.(Maybe not at the deadline obviously, but heading into next season)
    I thnk you're argument is just as strong for keeping him as opposed to moving him. For a team that needs good players on team friendly contracts, Span fits that bill. He could be one of those guys the Twins view as core for the next big push. I personally don't see them trading him unless some team decides to vastly overpay.

  17. #37
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post
    I thnk you're argument is just as strong for keeping him as opposed to moving him. For a team that needs good players on team friendly contracts, Span fits that bill. He could be one of those guys the Twins view as core for the next big push. I personally don't see them trading him unless some team decides to vastly overpay.
    I'd have no problem holding onto Span, and honestly will be sad if he is traded. However if a team offers you a true high ceiling pitcher or like Kab said a high ceiling prospect of any position then you have to think seriously about trading him. I'd prefer its a major league ready or close to major league ready #2 pitcher, but that's (think Gio Gonzalez prior to this year) but that is just my preference.

    Revere appears to at least be a serviceable stop gap at CF until one of Hicks, Arcia, Buxton or Benson pushes the issue.

  18. #38
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    OK, if you're a contending team why would you trade for him? About the only thing he has going for him is a cheap contract.
    Take a look around the majors at some of the guys contending teams are running out in the leadoff spot. Now look again and see who some of those same contending teams are running out in centerfield.

    A .700+ OPS guy with speed, a decent OBP, and good centerfield defense isn't that easy to come by. Add in the fact that he's under 30 and is cost-controlled for over two more seasons and you have a guy that teams want on their rosters.

    Hell, I'll do it for you:

    http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/...39;&extended=0

    The Reds' leadoff men are getting on base 23% of the time. The Dodgers are getting on base 28% of the time. The Orioles are getting on base 25% of the time, the Pirates 27%.

    You don't think those teams would love to have a table setter that gets on base 34-35% of the time?

    I keep saying it over and over again but this is not 2004. Baseball is a different game. While we used to be a little meh about guys who get on base 34% of the time in 2004, they're a real and valuable commodity in 2012 and they're well above the MLB average.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Yeah its a good argument, honestly you prob just take the best arm available, but I would feel alot better if said pitcher was less than 1 year away from the majors as every top pitching prospect has had some bad luck in the Twins system the past 4-5 years. Guerra, Gibson, Whimmers, Hunt,etc
    The twins really have had awful luck with pitching prospects. I don't know what is more frustrating.....having all our prospects go down with TJ or finally landing a true ace and watching him leave once he gets those dollar signs in his eyes.

  20. #40
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    If we trade Span and move Revere, who do we have ready to go into RF for 2013? Parmelee? Benson? We can't count on Arcia to be ready.

    Free agency? Take a look at the available free agent outfielders. Who will sign for the money they are paying Span?

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...s/?page_id=177

    Hardly any. We can probably get Delmon back.

    Let's keep the below market value we have in Span and overpay a pitcher in the winter.

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