Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: ELIZ #s cannot be trusted

  1. #1

    ELIZ #s cannot be trusted

    IMO, you cannot trust any players till they get to at least Beloit. That Lgs hitting #s are irrelevant.
    EX
    2005
    Age 21-Eric Lis 148ABs .315/.356/.577--barely made AAA
    2006
    21-Steve Singleton 144ABs .340/.368/.556--barely made AAA
    21-Danny Valencia 190ABs .311/.365/.505
    2007
    21-Ozzie Lewis 235ABs .323/.375/.523--gone from org after 1 more yr
    20-Deibinson Romero 247ABs .316/.406/.506---stuck in AA
    22-Ben Petsch 74ABs .311/.463/.473--gone after 1 more year
    2008
    20-Jonathon Waltenbury 263ABs .319/.382/.540---gone after 1 more yr
    18-Angel Morales 183ABs .301/.413/.623---cannot handle High A pitching
    21-Evan Bigley 213ABs .300/.360/.587---3rd yr in AA, finally putting up #s
    21-Alex Soto 116ABs .276/.344/.621--gone after 2 more yrs
    2009
    21-Tyler Ladendorf 61AB .410/.500/.721--stuck in AA after deal to OAK
    21-Steve Liddle 50ABs .360/.441/.520---only reason still in org is his dad (MN 3rd base coach)
    20-Danny Rams 62ABs .355/.444/.790---cant hit High A
    22-Brian Dozier 218ABs .353/.417/.431
    20-Josmil Pinto 205ABs .332/.387/.610---stuck in High A, moderate success
    21-Paul Michael Klingsbury 100ABs .320/.384/.500---hasnt played since
    21-Mike Gonzales 214ABs .304/.364/.477---cant hit High A
    21-Chris Hermann 236ABs .297/.391/.453---solid AA prospect
    2010
    19-Oswaldo Arcia 259ABs .375/.424/.672--solid AA prospect, never close to these numbers tho
    21-Nate Roberts 128ABs .336/.444/.547---decent yrs at Beloit
    20-Lance Ray 70ABs .314/.360/.414---under .200 @ High A
    2011
    19-Eddie Rosario 270ABs .337/.397/670---very solid Beloit yr
    20-JaDamion Williams 185ABs .324/.406/.465---under .250 in Beloit
    20-Kenny Vargas 174ABs .322/.377/.489---suspended
    18-Miguel Sano 267ABs .292/.352/.637--sub .240ave but great power in Beloit

    I didnt nitpick players either....took the highest performers.
    Also, lookin @ the #s.....nobody that couldnt hit there became anything of note.
    Last edited by greengoblinrulz; 06-29-2012 at 02:19 PM.

  2. #2
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    636
    Like
    0
    Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
    The need to add another short season league in the worst way. Either NYPL or NWL or something.

  3. #3
    Would you liken it then to not trusting spring training numbers? In my mind they share a commonality in the fact that i view pitchers to be at a disadvantage. In spring training they're just getting back into their throwing regimens and in rookie ball they're just facing more than maybe one quality hitter for the first time?

  4. #4
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Mr. Ed's Avatar
    Posts
    825
    Like
    0
    Liked 2 Times in 1 Post
    Steve Liddle 50ABs .360/.441/.520---only reason still in org is his dad (MN 3rd base coach)


    Not his dad.
    Father played baseball at Lipscomb ... Uncle, also named Steve, is the bench coach for the Minnesota Twins

  5. #5
    pretty much no low level minor league numbers can be trusted. Plus you're talking about an extremely small sample of at bats

  6. #6
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
    Posts
    3,999
    Like
    104
    Liked 392 Times in 206 Posts
    So your saying players generally start hitting worse as they move up the organizational ladder and start having to face better competition?

    Interesting...

  7. #7
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
    Posts
    1,925
    Twitter
    @jeremynygaard
    Like
    1
    Liked 121 Times in 67 Posts
    Blog Entries
    178
    I agree with your point greengoblinrulz.

    I think it's expected that college guys should perform really well in the Appy League. I would also think repeat guys - like Rhodes - should stand out.

    The difference between Romy Jimenez and the guys you listed, to me anyway, is that Jimenez was a DSL guy who essentially skipped over the GCL (because of injury). Yeah, there's a big talent difference between the Appy League and Beloit, but I can't imagine it's much greater (if at all) than the jump from the DSL to the Appy League. Add that to the fact - like Sano or Rosario - that Jimenez probably doesn't speak the language and you've got a pleasant surprise. Is it sustainable? Who knows... but if so, he's become a guy that's at least worth watching (a feat in itself for DSL hitters).

  8. #8
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    322
    Like
    0
    Liked 3 Times in 3 Posts
    What is missing from all of these numbers is the players age when in Elizabethton. If you add that, you will see a trend beginning to develop, ie, younger players with great numbers means the player has a real chance of being something. Older players have to have obscene numbers and even then only one of many will develop into something, ie, Dozier. Of the younger players, Sano, Arcia and Rosario all had big numbers at a young age and remain top prospects. So did Morales, thus, he proves that not all will make it. As for Jimenez/Trinidad, he didn't play much last year but is also older than Morales/Arcia/Sano/Rosario were at ETon.

  9. #9
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,790
    Like
    236
    Liked 491 Times in 236 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by DPJ View Post
    The need to add another short season league in the worst way. Either NYPL or NWL or something.
    I think this is the right answer. The Twins and the Braves have tradionally fielded strong teams in the Appy League as neither org has a team between this advanced rookie league and Low A.
    Chris Hermann solves everything. hat tip to jokin

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
    Posts
    3,999
    Like
    104
    Liked 392 Times in 206 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by GCTF View Post
    I think this is the right answer. The Twins and the Braves have tradionally fielded strong teams in the Appy League as neither org has a team between this advanced rookie league and Low A.
    I would be thrilled if the Twins got an NYPL team.

  11. #11
    Added the ages cause I think that matters also as MN starts their guys in ELIZ who are too old for that league IMO
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Ed View Post
    Steve Liddle 50ABs .360/.441/.520---only reason still in org is his dad (MN 3rd base coach)


    Not his dad.
    Father played baseball at Lipscomb ... Uncle, also named Steve, is the bench coach for the Minnesota Twins
    Stupid error by typing too fast.....knew that but my mistake

    pretty much no low level minor league numbers can be trusted. Plus you're talking about an extremely small sample of at bats
    Dont agree as you can start trusting numbers once low A starts.....tried to give most players 100ABs @ ELIZ, but some stood out.

    Arcia, Rosario & Sano are only ones ,IMO, as they were 18/19yrs old.....but none were even remotelly close to their ELIZ numbers cause the numbers cannot be trusted
    There is absolutely no reason for a 21 yr old college guy to be in ELIZ for a full yr
    Last edited by greengoblinrulz; 06-29-2012 at 02:29 PM.

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
    Posts
    3,999
    Like
    104
    Liked 392 Times in 206 Posts
    Even 100-150 ABs is a relatively small sample size,
    Last edited by SpiritofVodkaDave; 06-29-2012 at 05:25 PM.

  13. #13
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
    Posts
    4,178
    Twitter
    @thrylos98
    Like
    36
    Liked 446 Times in 273 Posts
    Blog Entries
    200
    Kind of hard to tell. The real test is AA (for hitters) because the pitchers to make it there throw much more and better off-speed and breaking stuff. A not so much so. A+ little more, but AA is the key. And the big differentiator is not how well you are doing per se, but how well you are doing in comparison to the competition. I think that it would be very hard to have a player in AA with an OPS of 900 or more that will not make it to the big leagues sooner or later. Similar with pitchers. If you got a WHIP around 1 or less in AA, you should be able to make it to the majors. The other leagues are pretty much developmental. AAA is the garage...
    -----
    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @thrylos98

  14. #14
    Scouting reports almost always trump stats in the minor leagues. Though they probably always trump at the Major League level as well. Anyway, the pitching becomes progressively worse, the Appy League puts up big numbers, the Midwest league puts up the least amount of runs of any league in the minors etc. So obviously, when you're going to a reduced season league that favors hitters like the Appy League, into the most difficult hitting league in the minors, in the Midwest league clearly you're going to see some significant differences in their hitting numbers.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Even 100-150 ABs is a relatively small sample size,
    No question, but the only data I (we) have to go on.

    Agree AA is the league to actually judge a player. For MN, Ft Myers is such a great pitchers league....that is hard also, but if you can hit there......

    There are 5 players in ELIZ, this yr, who are 19/20 who are right age to judge.....Walker, Harrison, Goodrum, Polonco & Keplar. 21 yr olds are too old & cant be judge there till Beloit.

  16. #16
    I wouldn't trust low A stats as far as I can throw them. And since you can't throw numbers as far as I know that should tell you how trustworthy low A stats are.

  17. #17
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Posts
    6,520
    Twitter
    @sethtweets
    Like
    68
    Liked 380 Times in 201 Posts
    Blog Entries
    515
    Good thread. I don't know if E-Town stats are meaningless as much as you just have to take them for what they are. The further away from the big leagues that a minor league is, the less important the actual numbers are. It's more about development.

    I actually like that most of the college guys that the Twins draft go to Elizabethton. It's a terrific coaching staff and a great atmosphere to spend 2 months at the start of their careers. They can adjust to wood bats, to bus rides, to getting paid and all those things.

    The age factor is very important in all of this, and yet it still isn't everything. Since Morales, I've been pretty cautious about looking at the E-Town stats too much as opposed to counting on scouting reports. For instance, Sano had solid numbers last year at ET, but he showed some things like 1.) lots of power with legit HR even in a smallish ball park, 2.) a lot of strikeouts, 3.) lots of errors. As for Eddie Rosario, the reports I got were that he had really quick hands and gap power and lots of those scouting things that made me believe that although he wouldn't hit as many home runs as he moved into the bigger ball parks, he could hit for average, etc.

    A college hitter or pitcher, unless the scouting report shows some pretty impressive things, I won't rank a 21 year old very high even if they hit .350. For guys like that, I won't rank them too high until they get to Ft. Myers usually. Obviously there are exceptions to everything.

    In the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2012, Roger wrote a good article on what E-Town numbers mean. I came up with a list of the Top 15 OPSs in E-Twins history. The list shows a few guys that had big league time and success, but most of them never came close.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.