Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 26

Thread: Colorado's Four-Man Rotation

  1. #1
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
    Posts
    1,674
    Twitter
    @nnelson9
    Like
    6
    Liked 77 Times in 29 Posts
    Blog Entries
    318

    Colorado's Four-Man Rotation

    With their starting pitching in shambles, the Rockies have made the decision to switch to a four-man rotation, implementing a 75-pitch limit on all of their starters with the goal of letting their bullpen (which has been much better) have a larger impact on games.

    What do you think? Good idea or bad? And if this approach shows results, is it something the Twins – who are in a very similar situation – should consider?

  2. #2
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    7,982
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    47
    Liked 1,492 Times in 782 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    With their starting pitching in shambles, the Rockies have made the decision to switch to a four-man rotation, implementing a 75-pitch limit on all of their starters with the goal of letting their bullpen (which has been much better) have a larger impact on games.

    What do you think? Good idea or bad? And if this approach shows results, is it something the Twins – who are in a very similar situation – should consider?
    Ooh, bold move by Colorado. How long ago was it that the Jays tried a four-man rotation? Five, six years ago?

    For the Rockies, it might not be a bad move. It's hard to pitch there... Allowing for bullpen-type concentration and pitch style from the starters might work for them, letting guys throw harder and ditch their usually subpar third and/or fourth pitch because they'll be facing fewer batters.

    For the Twins? I'm not really sold on the idea. Their problem is that they have lousy pitchers, not that they have too few pitchers.

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star James's Avatar
    Posts
    1,247
    Like
    261
    Liked 128 Times in 83 Posts
    Interesting idea. I do like when teams try something a little different from conventional baseball wisdom every once in a while. I am skeptical about this one though. Mainly because I'm skeptical about pitch counts in general. It seems to me that this type of rotation would require that you have some relievers that can go two or three innings on a very regular basis. Some pitchers just aren't built for that, so there is a chance that you just end up burning out you bullpen as well. So, the bullpen might have to be constructed a little differently (especially in the Twins' case). I'm interested in seeing how it works though.
    You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.

  4. #4
    During the draft there was some of talk - by me and others independently - about simply sending out three pitchers a day, roughly three innings each, and dissolving the distinction between "starting" and "bullpen" entirely. While traditional, when you think about it, it does seem kinda arbitrary that some pitchers throw 100 pitches, every five days, for a total of 200 innings in a season, and others throw twenty or so every few days for 50 innings a season. When it came up before, people noted a number of advantages and very few disadvantages. Nobody explained, I didn't think, in a satisfactory way why this is *never* seen, especially when "relievers" are a dime a dozen and quality starting pitchers are few and far between.

  5. #5
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
    Posts
    3,893
    Like
    75
    Liked 355 Times in 178 Posts
    If the Twins actually had a chance to compete I would be for it, but at this point you might as well keep testing out pitchers until you find a couple, also you don't want to over extended any of the young RP at this point.

  6. #6
    Of course until the late 1960s most teams used a four man rotation.

    I remember several years ago Jim Kaat proposed a unique alternative to the current pitching formula. He proposed that each team use 3 squads of 3 pitchers in a rotation for each game. Each pitcher would pitch three innings and which three innings he pitched would be rotated as well. This was to allow all the pitchers to get wins under the current rules. I don't remember if he ever discussed what you would do about extra inning games. Think about it, if you went this way and your squads did their job you might be able go with 10 or 11 pitchers instead of 12 or 13.

  7. #7
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,458
    Like
    64
    Liked 143 Times in 92 Posts
    Blog Entries
    30
    I think it is worth a try for the Rockies and the Twins should pay attention.

    Before I go further, this is not something that could benefit every team. If you have an ace like Verlander or Sabathia, I don't think you want to pull him after 75 pitches.

    Could it benefit the Twins?

    At 75 pitches, teams will get 5-6 innings out of a pitcher in a good start. Yesterday Liriano was at 75 after 6 innings of a very good start. Over 20 games, the burden on the bullpen will be about 20 more innings. Assuming the roster has the same number of pitchers, there will be one more pitcher in the pen that will take on about 1/2 those innings. The other 10 innings will need to be picked up by the rest of the bullpen. If those 10 innings go to the better arms in the pen, then I think it can be a success.

    So the questions a team will have to ask...

    - Are our current starters less effective from 80-100 pitches?
    - How will the innings redistribute?
    - Will we get 20 better innings (over 20 games) by giving 10 to the new arm in the pen and distributing the other 10 to arms current in the pen?
    - Can we utilize the arms in our pen better to get more innings out of our better relievers?
    - Is there any data that points to the health risks or benefits to pitchers in the rotation and pen?

    Many think that the arms in major league bullpens are not utilized well. If this change causes a team to better utilize those innings, it could be a hidden benefit that really drives the success of the 4 man/75 pitch rotation.

  8. #8
    even with a 4man rotation/75 pitch limit....we would still have Rick Anderson & he trumps anything.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    240
    Like
    0
    Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
    "It is easier to find four starting pitchers than five."
    - Earl Weaver's Seventh Law

    Grabbed from here ("Doctoring the Numbers: The Five Man Rotation" in Baseball Prospectus by Rany Jazayerli)

  10. #10
    weaver also believed a 3 run homer was more beneficial than a sacrifice bunt

  11. #11
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
    Posts
    4,132
    Twitter
    @thrylos98
    Like
    34
    Liked 432 Times in 262 Posts
    Blog Entries
    200
    I think that the results show that it might not be a good idea: the Rockies lost 12 of their last 13 games... Plus not all MLB pitchers can pitch effectively on one less day of rest.
    -----
    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @thrylos98

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
    Posts
    1,074
    Like
    10
    Liked 204 Times in 95 Posts
    I like outside-the-box thinking. Just not when that kind of thinking decreases pitch counts by 25%.

    I'd rather see a six-man rotation and stretch them out to 115 pitches each. But I don't think this is a long-term philosophical change for the Rockies, anyway - more like an on the fly adjustment.

  13. #13
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
    Posts
    1,674
    Twitter
    @nnelson9
    Like
    6
    Liked 77 Times in 29 Posts
    Blog Entries
    318
    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    I think that the results show that it might not be a good idea: the Rockies lost 12 of their last 13 games...
    This new arrangement was not implemented over the last 13 games. In fact, it is very likely a response to the last 13 games.

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
    Posts
    3,893
    Like
    75
    Liked 355 Times in 178 Posts
    The problem with a 75 pitch limit is a guy like Liriano (who is now our de facto "Ace") might only last 3-4 innings in a decent chunk of his starts. I don't care how good your bullpen is, any team you are asking 5+ innings out of them on something even close to a regular basis is a recipe for disaster.

    Also top to bottom I'm not sure the Twins have the pen to be able to do this, Capps, Perkins, Burnett and Duesning have all been swell, but how many innings can they possibly go in a week?

    Gray is terrible, Burnett is liable to get shelled at any moment now and the rest of the guys are ho hum or unproven as well.

  15. #15
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
    Posts
    3,893
    Like
    75
    Liked 355 Times in 178 Posts
    The problem with a 75 pitch limit is a guy like Liriano (who is now our de facto "Ace") might only last 3-4 innings in a decent chunk of his starts. I don't care how good your bullpen is, any team you are asking 5+ innings out of them on something even close to a regular basis is a recipe for disaster.

    Also top to bottom I'm not sure the Twins have the pen to be able to do this, Capps, Perkins, Burnett and Duesning have all been swell, but how many innings can they possibly go in a week?

    Gray is terrible, Burnett is liable to get shelled at any moment now and the rest of the guys are ho hum or unproven as well.

    I would be more open to a 4 man rotation with a 100 pitch cap.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    The problem with a 75 pitch limit is a guy like Liriano (who is now our de facto "Ace") might only last 3-4 innings in a decent chunk of his starts. I don't care how good your bullpen is, any team you are asking 5+ innings out of them on something even close to a regular basis is a recipe for disaster.

    Also top to bottom I'm not sure the Twins have the pen to be able to do this, Capps, Perkins, Burnett and Duesning have all been swell, but how many innings can they possibly go in a week?

    Gray is terrible, Burnett is liable to get shelled at any moment now and the rest of the guys are ho hum or unproven as well.
    If the Twins were to go to a 4 man rotation Gray would be out and one of Slama/Guerra/Waldrop/Oliveros would be up...

    It would be an interesting way to give these kids an early tryout for next year's club.

  17. #17
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
    Posts
    8,662
    Like
    4,695
    Liked 2,183 Times in 1,235 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    The problem with a 75 pitch limit is a guy like Liriano (who is now our de facto "Ace") might only last 3-4 innings in a decent chunk of his starts. I don't care how good your bullpen is, any team you are asking 5+ innings out of them on something even close to a regular basis is a recipe for disaster.

    Also top to bottom I'm not sure the Twins have the pen to be able to do this, Capps, Perkins, Burnett and Duesning have all been swell, but how many innings can they possibly go in a week?

    Gray is terrible, Burnett is liable to get shelled at any moment now and the rest of the guys are ho hum or unproven as well.

    I would be more open to a 4 man rotation with a 100 pitch cap.
    I think you kind of made the point on why the Rockies are trying this without realizing it. "a guy like Liriano might only last 3 4 innings".

    Look at it this way... If I'm a starting pitcher for the Rockies. I can't mess around. I got 15 pitches an inning to work with... just to get 5 innings in. I'd have to pound the strike zone or be done after 3 or 4 innings. The game should move along and the D will be sharper without the long innings. Less walks and less errors and you can let the percentages work in your favor with less free bases and extra outs.

    I think the move is brilliant and time will tell if Tracy is right. If it blows up in his face. I'll deny typing this and blame it on auto correct.

    Every once in awhile someone comes up with something that ends up being copied. This could be the next pitching evolution. It's possible.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 06-22-2012 at 08:20 AM.

  18. #18
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
    Posts
    1,927
    Like
    240
    Liked 182 Times in 105 Posts
    I'm not sure how this can be successful. Their four man rotation consists of: Jeff Francis, Christian Friedrich, Alex White, and Josh Outman. More than that it devalues Gutherie, who they might be able to trade for some a shot in the dark if he ever put together a string of starts. The Rockies are throwing spitballs against the wall and calling it baseball.

  19. #19
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
    Posts
    1,674
    Twitter
    @nnelson9
    Like
    6
    Liked 77 Times in 29 Posts
    Blog Entries
    318
    Quote Originally Posted by Pseudofool View Post
    I'm not sure how this can be successful. Their four man rotation consists of: Jeff Francis, Christian Friedrich, Alex White, and Josh Outman. More than that it devalues Gutherie, who they might be able to trade for some a shot in the dark if he ever put together a string of starts. The Rockies are throwing spitballs against the wall and calling it baseball.
    Guthrie has been unbelievably bad – the worst in the Rockies rotation and that's saying something. There's no devaluing him at this point. He was never going to fetch anything of value.

    You're right that the starters they have to work with are pretty awful, but I don't see the harm in lowering the pressure on them and maybe coaxing them to throw a little harder for 75 pitches. Worth a shot at this point. I dig it.

  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
    Posts
    3,137
    Like
    1,218
    Liked 1,171 Times in 686 Posts
    Can you explain how limiting the pitcher to 75 pitches improves his first 3 innings? Just glancing through box scores it looks to me like Twins pitchers are often getting in trouble early in the game. How does this change that?

    We already have Capps who seems to come in and give up a run or 2 before he "settles down" for the save. Are the starting pitchers going to be that much different knowing that they only have 75 pitches instead of 100 or so?

    I'm all for trying something different and I suppose in a lost season, experimenting makes sense but I'm not really sure what this accomplishes unless you really think it is an alternative for long-term success not just a filler for the season. Unless you think it may work long-term, I think SpiritOVD has a good point above - the Twins are going to need starters next year --might as well see what they have. (Unfortunately I think the answer to that question is "not much".)

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.