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Thread: Twins trade rumors

  1. #21
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    Everybody needs to prepare to be disappointed. The Twins will not get "blown away", they will not get any top prospects in return for any player on the roster, including Mauer. Teams do not trade top prospects any more. You can count on one hand the number of top shelf prospects that have moved in the last few years. Too much cost control for high production. Veterans are always overvalued. The Twins most moveable pieces, Willingham and Span, both have baggage. Willingham is in year 1 of 3, is 33 yrs old, can't defend, and is having one of the best starts of his career. Span has the concussion thing, along with some perceptions that he won't move from CF. No way the Twins will get top level prospects for these two.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Highabove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post
    Everybody needs to prepare to be disappointed. The Twins will not get "blown away", they will not get any top prospects in return for any player on the roster, including Mauer. Teams do not trade top prospects any more. You can count on one hand the number of top shelf prospects that have moved in the last few years. Too much cost control for high production. Veterans are always overvalued. The Twins most moveable pieces, Willingham and Span, both have baggage. Willingham is in year 1 of 3, is 33 yrs old, can't defend, and is having one of the best starts of his career. Span has the concussion thing, along with some perceptions that he won't move from CF. No way the Twins will get top level prospects for these two.
    Great Points
    An organization such as Tampa, built their Team with players that they developed through the draft. The Twins cannot turn their Organization around with a collection of C and D prospects.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post
    Everybody needs to prepare to be disappointed. The Twins will not get "blown away", they will not get any top prospects in return for any player on the roster, including Mauer. Teams do not trade top prospects any more. You can count on one hand the number of top shelf prospects that have moved in the last few years. Too much cost control for high production. Veterans are always overvalued. The Twins most moveable pieces, Willingham and Span, both have baggage. Willingham is in year 1 of 3, is 33 yrs old, can't defend, and is having one of the best starts of his career. Span has the concussion thing, along with some perceptions that he won't move from CF. No way the Twins will get top level prospects for these two.
    Let's see, top prospects moved the last few years. Here's a list of prospects traded since after the 2009 season (BA ranking in parenthesis). Zach Wheeler (35) for 3 months of Carlos Beltran. Brad Peacock (36), Derek Norris (72), AJ Cole (57) + Tommy Milone for Gio Gonzalez. Yonder Alonso (33), Yasmani Grandal (53) + 2 more including Edison Valquez for Mat Latos. Wilson Ramos (96) for Matt Capps. Jarred Cosart (50), Jonathan Singleton (34) + Josh Zeid for Hunter Pence. Brett Lawrie (40) for Shaun Marcum. Jake Ordorizzi (68), Alcides Escobar (12), + two more (including BA #100 the year before) for Zach Greinke. Casey Kelly (31), Anthony Rizzo (75) + two more for Adrian Gonzalez. Jesus Montere (6) for Michael Pineda. Kyle Drabek (25), Travis D'Arnaud (81) and Michael Taylor (29) for Roy Halladay. (Taylor was immediately traded for Brett Wallace (27)). Drew Pomeranz (30), Alex White (47) + two more for Ubaldo Jiminez. And that's also not counting some of the other deals for guys like Rasmus or the big Granderson trade that included Kennedy, Jackson, Schertzer (sp) etc.

    So clearly, top prospects are getting dealt. Span and Willingham are both established major leaguers with team friendly contracts. While they aren't the game changers that Halladay or Gonzalez are, they are also considerably cheaper (combined salary this year is 12.5m). They also (hopefully) will be dealt in the middle of a very competitive trading deadline with the additon of the fifth wildcard in each league. If the Twins don't get a comparable offer for either of them, they shouldn't trade them. They'll still have value at next years deadline.

  4. #24
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Let's see, top prospects moved the last few years. Here's a list of prospects traded since after the 2009 season (BA ranking in parenthesis). Zach Wheeler (35) for 3 months of Carlos Beltran. Brad Peacock (36), Derek Norris (72), AJ Cole (57) + Tommy Milone for Gio Gonzalez. Yonder Alonso (33), Yasmani Grandal (53) + 2 more including Edison Valquez for Mat Latos. Wilson Ramos (96) for Matt Capps. Jarred Cosart (50), Jonathan Singleton (34) + Josh Zeid for Hunter Pence. Brett Lawrie (40) for Shaun Marcum. Jake Ordorizzi (68), Alcides Escobar (12), + two more (including BA #100 the year before) for Zach Greinke. Casey Kelly (31), Anthony Rizzo (75) + two more for Adrian Gonzalez. Jesus Montere (6) for Michael Pineda. Kyle Drabek (25), Travis D'Arnaud (81) and Michael Taylor (29) for Roy Halladay. (Taylor was immediately traded for Brett Wallace (27)). Drew Pomeranz (30), Alex White (47) + two more for Ubaldo Jiminez. And that's also not counting some of the other deals for guys like Rasmus or the big Granderson trade that included Kennedy, Jackson, Schertzer (sp) etc.

    So clearly, top prospects are getting dealt. Span and Willingham are both established major leaguers with team friendly contracts. While they aren't the game changers that Halladay or Gonzalez are, they are also considerably cheaper (combined salary this year is 12.5m). They also (hopefully) will be dealt in the middle of a very competitive trading deadline with the additon of the fifth wildcard in each league. If the Twins don't get a comparable offer for either of them, they shouldn't trade them. They'll still have value at next years deadline.
    I love this post so much I want to marry it. Thanks for the research.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post
    Everybody needs to prepare to be disappointed. The Twins will not get "blown away", they will not get any top prospects in return for any player on the roster, including Mauer. Teams do not trade top prospects any more. You can count on one hand the number of top shelf prospects that have moved in the last few years. Too much cost control for high production. Veterans are always overvalued. The Twins most moveable pieces, Willingham and Span, both have baggage. Willingham is in year 1 of 3, is 33 yrs old, can't defend, and is having one of the best starts of his career. Span has the concussion thing, along with some perceptions that he won't move from CF. No way the Twins will get top level prospects for these two.
    It depends on what would cause disappointment. Personally, I would be disappointed if they gave away our best talent for prospects of uncertain future. If we can't get a top prospect for Willingham or Span (and perhaps we can't) then I say keep them. A repeat of the Santana trade we do not need.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Let's see, top prospects moved the last few years. Here's a list of prospects traded since after the 2009 season (BA ranking in parenthesis). Zach Wheeler (35) for 3 months of Carlos Beltran. Brad Peacock (36), Derek Norris (72), AJ Cole (57) + Tommy Milone for Gio Gonzalez. Yonder Alonso (33), Yasmani Grandal (53) + 2 more including Edison Valquez for Mat Latos. Wilson Ramos (96) for Matt Capps. Jarred Cosart (50), Jonathan Singleton (34) + Josh Zeid for Hunter Pence. Brett Lawrie (40) for Shaun Marcum. Jake Ordorizzi (68), Alcides Escobar (12), + two more (including BA #100 the year before) for Zach Greinke. Casey Kelly (31), Anthony Rizzo (75) + two more for Adrian Gonzalez. Jesus Montere (6) for Michael Pineda. Kyle Drabek (25), Travis D'Arnaud (81) and Michael Taylor (29) for Roy Halladay. (Taylor was immediately traded for Brett Wallace (27)). Drew Pomeranz (30), Alex White (47) + two more for Ubaldo Jiminez. And that's also not counting some of the other deals for guys like Rasmus or the big Granderson trade that included Kennedy, Jackson, Schertzer (sp) etc.

    So clearly, top prospects are getting dealt. Span and Willingham are both established major leaguers with team friendly contracts. While they aren't the game changers that Halladay or Gonzalez are, they are also considerably cheaper (combined salary this year is 12.5m). They also (hopefully) will be dealt in the middle of a very competitive trading deadline with the additon of the fifth wildcard in each league. If the Twins don't get a comparable offer for either of them, they shouldn't trade them. They'll still have value at next years deadline.
    Noted. But if you look at list you provided, virtually every trade involves a game changer. The only move I would say not involving a "game changer" would be the Capps/Ramos deal. The rest of that list involves all-stars for prospects, or essentially prospects for prospects. Span and Willingham are no where near the level of any of those considered to be the centerpiece of those deals. Unless some team is incredibly stupid (ie Bill Smith), there is no way we would get anything of value back by trading either one of those. The only true game changer the Twins have is Mauer. His contract and iffy health situation make him unmoveable.

    I am all for rebuilding the system, but we have to be realistic about what we are talking about.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post
    Noted. But if you look at list you provided, virtually every trade involves a game changer. The only move I would say not involving a "game changer" would be the Capps/Ramos deal. The rest of that list involves all-stars for prospects, or essentially prospects for prospects. Span and Willingham are no where near the level of any of those considered to be the centerpiece of those deals.
    That's a bit unrealistic, too. WAR has lots of problems but it'll work for our purposes. In three months, Beltran amassed about 1 WAR for the Giants (who gave up uber-pitching prospect Wheeler). Pence is fairly comparable to our guys. Avg about 3 WAR/season, low of 2.1 high of 3.7, traded at 28 so you knew what you'd get over the next few years. Span is a fairly safe bet to be a constant 3 WAR guy (and much cheaper) over his remaining deal. Latos, Marcum and Gonzalez are considered up and coming guys but none are all stars and all had some baggage - either injury concerns or failing to rack up innings or questions about pitching outside of a pitching haven. The three had combined for 4 3+ WAR seasons before they were traded and were traded based on hope that they'd continue to improve (Marcum probably wasn't worth Lawrie, Latos isn't doing well, Gonzalez is), whereas Span and Willingham are already established. Those teams are hoping those guys turn into consistent 3+ WAR guys. Jiminez was traded based on two seasons several years past and had been really struggling when traded (and still is). Gonzalez, Halladay are game changers but also had significant salary baggage that limited the number of teams that could bid on them. Something that won't affect Span and Willingham. (Incidentally, Capps has amassed more WAR than Ramos, the one "incredibly stupid deal" in your words).

    The main difference in the handful of trades I listed (and it wasn't a comprehensive list and it only went back a couple years) is that Willingham and Span are more "what you see is what you get" guys, like Pence. Teams aren't going to trade for them and hope they get better and they should be fairly (as much as you can be) consistent in their production over the life of their contracts. Span has had one bad year, which was mostly bad luck, and has racked up 4.5 WAR over his last 130 games. Willingham is a solid slugger making 7m/yr and has a 130 OPS+ since 2009. Both are among the cheapest players listed, as well. The other advantage (hopefully) that the Twins will have will be more teams trying to be buyers with the extra wildcard and tight races in several divisions.

  8. #28
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    I mentioned this in another post, but if the Twins are to move Morneau or Willingham or even Capps for middling minor leaguers I fully expect their opened up salary to be spent on at least one high end free agent. That would free up $20M+. I think a high end talent could be had for $20M. But I doubt it will happen. The Twins will load up on 4 aging Jason Marquis/Rondell White type players and pay them $5M each only to have them be out of the rotation/lineup by June. That's the "Twins Way".

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loosey View Post
    I mentioned this in another post, but if the Twins are to move Morneau or Willingham or even Capps for middling minor leaguers I fully expect their opened up salary to be spent on at least one high end free agent. That would free up $20M+. I think a high end talent could be had for $20M. But I doubt it will happen. The Twins will load up on 4 aging Jason Marquis/Rondell White type players and pay them $5M each only to have them be out of the rotation/lineup by June. That's the "Twins Way".
    Well, the public backlash at trading Morneau for a pu-pu platter won't let that happen. And while this thread is discussing moving guys like Span and Willingham, remember that the Twins got Diamond for Bullock. There are a lot of pitchers like that out there that the Twins might target and get. Other teams tend to de-value soft tossing, control guys whereas the Twins have gotten some good bang for their buck with them. I could see Ryan trying to making small moves like that and keeping Span/Willingham. He said he needs pitching but he never said he needs flame throwers.

  10. #30
    Here are the only players I see us moving right now that will bring some sort of decent return...Liriano, Capps, Span, and Willingham. Doumit and Pavano are a pipe dreams in my opinion. I see Span as the piece which would have the highest return, and Capps as the most likely to be dealt. I would be shocked if Liriano is not traded, but I'm not sure what he will bring in return. Willingham is a power RH bat, and probably the most valuable of the 4 for the Twins, so I have a difficult time believing he will be moved.

  11. #31
    Senior Member Double-A PMKI's Avatar
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    The Nationals would probably be interested in Doumit.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    That's a bit unrealistic, too. WAR has lots of problems but it'll work for our purposes....
    I took a similar tack on this question in a blog entry a little more than a week ago. My conclusion was similar to the "prepare to be disappointed" theme here.

    The problem is that what you get in return goes down pretty sharply as the talent you are unloading gets closer to average. Take Pence versus Span, looking at WAR from baseball-reference.com
    Age Pence Span
    24 3.3 4.2
    25 2.1 3.7
    26 3.7 1.5
    27 2.8 2.3
    28 3.2 2.3

    (The age-28 seasons are both partial and thus somewhat comparable, a little to Span's detriment.) Span's career started out stronger but the recent track record favors Pence, and there would also be the lingering concern over the concussion.

    I do think you can expect one can't-miss prospect plus maybe another middling prospect in return for Span, but not a haul like Pence fetched. Based on WAR I saw Span as a trading asset as somewhat matched (ironically) to a pitcher, Zambrano. Would you like a Span-for-Kazmir type of trade? I probably would, but that's about the limit - you won't restock the starting rotation with Span as the bait, and he's about the best/only trading asset we've got.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    I do think you can expect one can't-miss prospect plus maybe another middling prospect in return for Span, but not a haul like Pence fetched. Based on WAR I saw Span as a trading asset as somewhat matched (ironically) to a pitcher, Zambrano. Would you like a Span-for-Kazmir type of trade? I probably would, but that's about the limit - you won't restock the starting rotation with Span as the bait, and he's about the best/only trading asset we've got.
    You make some good points but I think their are two issues that will add to Span's attractiveness. First, unlike Pence, he is cost controlled and therefore more teams can afford him than Pence. Second, with the additional wild card, more teams will (hopefully) be buyers at the deadline. That said, I'm not sure the Twins move Span at all. I think it's more likely that the Twins don't make a major move and instead try and make more Bullock for Diamond trades and wait a year before moving anyone of significance.

  14. #34
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    So the Braves are scouting Liriano. I say that we don't settle for anything less than Julio Teheran! haha

  15. #35
    Or Vizcaino or Gilmartin
    Or both...
    STRONG ARM THEM

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