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Thread: The hottest team in baseball..

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by mikeee View Post
    Are we still sellers!?!?!
    Too early to tell. If we can play .500 ball til the trade deadline, I doubt we will make any drastic trades like a Mourneau, Willingham, or Span trade. They want to appease to the fans so we keep coming and buying $8 beers.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    A strong case for why the Twins have to stare cold reality in the face and rebuild. In this crazy division, even 87 wins could sneak a team in, but what's the point in even trying? It doesn't make business or competitive team sense to pretend to contend, if it hurts the team's chances in the intermediate and long-term, as was proven last year.

    ---I agree with you on the rebuild. (Though as a guy who follows the T-Wolves in the winter, I kinda bristle at the word. It can be a slippery slope.) We should absolutely be sellers at the deadline, and making moves for next year and beyond.

    But even if we hold a fire sale and move Capps, Span, Carroll, etc., who knows what the remaining guys might be able to do in this division. Just because the front office has turned its attention to the future doesn't mean the coaches and players should. It's highly unlikely the Twins will win it, but it would be nice to at least see them make it a bit interesting. If nothing else, it would be good experience for Dozier, Diamond and some of the other young guys to play some semi-meaningful second-half games.

    Like you said, it's a crazy division. I wouldn't be surprised to see the eventual AL Central winner have even less than 87 wins. The Whities are facing a much tougher second-half schedule, Cleveland is thoroughly mediocre, Detroit hasn't shown any signs of figuring it out, and the Royals are, well, the Royals - they're the team of the future and they always will be.

    So while I'm all for building for the future, I'm not ready to concede this year yet. (Some may call it naive optimism, but it's really just old-fashioned Irish stubborness.)

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeee View Post
    Are we still sellers!?!?!
    I would say that no one on this team for the right price is safe from trades. On the other hand, no one on this team at this is worth selling for much. Except for Capps, the players with expiring contracts would be bit players at best on another team. A Liriano that could pitch to potential would either be untouchable or sold for a high price. History is against Liriano. Moving anyone with more than other year left on their contract would be either salary dump or trading a decent overpaid player for another player of similar caliber Span would be the exception. If they move Span it would hopefully be for something like a potentially stud starting pitcher with good mechanics and other prospects. He is the one Twin that should bring a large return
    Last edited by old nurse; 06-10-2012 at 04:14 AM.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    3 or 4 more wins in April/early May and we're right in this thing, 3 o4 wins does'nt sound like alot but it is in this division..Crazy but true!

  5. #25
    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    I don't see a fire sale...Span/ Capps and maybe Liriano are still the most likely to get moved. I think they try to extend Doumit before the deadline and if not then try to trade him. I think Willingham is here to stay and Justin too unless they get a offer to good to pass on but I don't see that with $13+ mil left on his contract and his injury concerns.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dilligaf69 View Post
    3 or 4 more wins in April/early May and we're right in this thing, 3 o4 wins does'nt sound like alot but it is in this division..Crazy but true!

    ---Yeah, if we'd managed just a bad 14-22 start instead of a horrific 10-26 start, there would probably be a bit of a different feeling about this season.

  7. #27
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    I don't think we're buyer or sellers yet - because nobody is buying or selling yet. When the all-star break comes around, that's about when a decision needs to be made. That's still 27 games away.

    BUT, one could play some hypothetical games to help serve as a reality check later. Certainly, if the Twins will all 27 and ar 17 games over .500 at the All-Star break, they aren't sellers. So there is some number at which the team - if not becoming a buyer, at least doesn't sell. Where do people think that line should be?

    For instance, if the Twins go 18-9, are one game under .500 at the ASB and are 3.5 GB of a division leader, I gotta think they aren't sellers. Or do people think they still should be? It is looking more and more like the AL Central will be won with a total of something like 87 wins. And the Twins have a ton of game versus their own division left. Hell, they have 15 games left against the division leader.

  8. #28
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm not sure if you're comment was tongue in cheek or not. But it is striking, and possibly unprecedented, at how truly awful the members of the original Twins starting staff have performed this year. Believe it or not, according to Fangraphs: The Twins original starters are ranked #1(Hendriks 9.00) #2 (Blackburn 7.73) #3 (Marquis 7.65) #5 (Liriano 6.65) and #12 (Pavano 6.00) in worst ERA in all of the SPs in baseball. As of today (before including today's game), the ERA is still the worst in baseball at 6.11, lower even than the lowly Rockies who play in the launching pad that is Coors Field, who check in at 5.85. That Cole DeVries comes in as a breath of fresh air to the rotation is telling at how abysmally bad this staff has been.

    On a string of positive notes: 1) Blackburn and Liriano are back, showing at least a pulse in Blackie's case and a case for hope in Frankie's. 2)Hendriks, barring one anomalous performance, has been lights out in Rochester 3)Pavano has a history of bouncing back from the brink of extinction 4) Can't say this enough, Marquis is out of his, and our, misery, 5) Diamond appears to be the real deal, completely reversing most of his negative patterns from last year (at or near the top in ERA, BB/9 and GB%). Probably not sustainable, but even a regression to the mean of his two years combined in the majors qualifies for Ace on this staff.
    It was meant seriously - I was noting that over the last few weeks they've lowered their starting ERA from 6.60+ to under 6.00 - that's a good accomplishment and shows a rotation that is starting to put out competitive starts.

    Naturally, I'd like the trend to continue - let's get it under 5.00 if we can.

  9. #29
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    I don't think we're buyer or sellers yet - because nobody is buying or selling yet. When the all-star break comes around, that's about when a decision needs to be made. That's still 27 games away.

    BUT, one could play some hypothetical games to help serve as a reality check later. Certainly, if the Twins will all 27 and ar 17 games over .500 at the All-Star break, they aren't sellers. So there is some number at which the team - if not becoming a buyer, at least doesn't sell. Where do people think that line should be?

    For instance, if the Twins go 18-9, are one game under .500 at the ASB and are 3.5 GB of a division leader, I gotta think they aren't sellers. Or do people think they still should be? It is looking more and more like the AL Central will be won with a total of something like 87 wins. And the Twins have a ton of game versus their own division left. Hell, they have 15 games left against the division leader.
    I think that's the same thing Soucheray was talking about in a column recently, hoping the club wouldn't go down that road again. Then again, I don't agree with Soucheray often, so...

    I think if you're 4 games under .500 or less, and within 8 games of the division leader, you don't sell. At that point with 2 months left I figure you can make up realistically about 1 game/week on the leader over that whole time. I wouldn't necessarily buy unless we were above .500 and within 4 games of the lead.

    I know there are some who will say just seeking to win the division is not good enough and we should stock up on prospects in the hopes of a world series run in a few years and forget about the division, but I am not one of those. I'd love to win the series again, to be sure, but I don't think that's realistic under any scenario given the size of our media market and the importance local TV contracts now plays in total revenue.

  10. #30
    John,

    I believe there is an old axiom about baseball that says that if a team is .500 at All Star break, anything can happen.

    Anyway, if the Twins are a .500 team at All Star, I suspect the Twins become buyers, if they can get a front line pitcher. However, I think the Twins will also weigh short term interests against the long term. I don't think the Twins will give up the farm for a rental arm.

    Which takes me to my second thought..I think the Twins are really on the horns of a dilemma. The Twins, as you pointed out in another post, have what appears to be an excellent core of position players that should be enable the team to win over the next few years, if the starting pitching comes around. But, can the Twins afford to give up any of the core players for anything less than a haul of front line prospects? I just don't see it happening for less than several pitching prospects. (Calvin Griffith, if memory serves, always said you never trade position players straight up for a pitcher, because position players are every day players, whereas pitchers pitch once every 5 days)

    I think the Twins stand pat this year (Liam Hendricks is waiting in the wings) and let a lot of salary go (Capps, Pavano, Marquis, Liriano) and do something they're not known to do: go after a top of the line free agent starting pitcher.

    Of course, I can see the Twins completely blowing up the team if this team doesn't play at least .500 ball this year.

  11. #31
    62 gms into the year & we're 25-37 with 100 to go.
    CHI is in first w/ 34-29 record... .540 winning percentage which leads to 88 wins.
    Mn needs to go 63-37 to reach 88 wins. Nobody in the majors is even playin at .630% right now.
    Can we please just enjoy the season & development of players than thinking there is ANY shot at contention??

  12. #32
    Head Moderator All-Star glunn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz View Post
    62 gms into the year & we're 25-37 with 100 to go.
    CHI is in first w/ 34-29 record... .540 winning percentage which leads to 88 wins.
    Mn needs to go 63-37 to reach 88 wins. Nobody in the majors is even playin at .630% right now.
    Can we please just enjoy the season & development of players than thinking there is ANY shot at contention??
    I can. I just hope that they throw some bones to the fans.

    In September, I would like to see a game where Mauer and Butera each play all 9 positions in the same game -- a double of what Cesar Tovar did. This could be scheduled against a team that then has no postseason chances, so it would no affect any pennant races. I predict that such game would be sellout, TV ratings would soar, the players would have a good time, and lots of fans would appreciate how fun this would be.

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