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Thread: The Twins and Their Supposed "Outfield Depth"

  1. #41
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    Wrong

    Souhan is wrong as usual. There's never any rigor to his argument. "Span is a wonderful guy. Get rid of him." Cheap, fatuous cynicism. That's his raison d'etre.

  2. #42
    Revere's batting .326/.361/.424 and is 8/9 on stolen bases this year in 92ABs. Do you really need a lot more than that for a speedy OF lead-off hitter?

  3. #43
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    Beauty

    Quote Originally Posted by Scheherezade View Post
    Revere's batting .326/.361/.424 and is 8/9 on stolen bases this year in 92ABs. Do you really need a lot more than that for a speedy OF lead-off hitter?
    That bunt hit he got last night was a beaut.

  4. #44
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montecore View Post
    That bunt hit he got last night was a beaut.
    Well no it wasn't a beaut at all. He just runs really fast.

    But Revere's performance this year has been fantastic.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scheherezade View Post
    Revere's batting .326/.361/.424 and is 8/9 on stolen bases this year in 92ABs. Do you really need a lot more than that for a speedy OF lead-off hitter?
    Obviously not, and if he continues to hit this way, then that changes the discussion a bit. However, it's only 92 AB. As mentioned I hope it's indictative of actual improvement and not due to small sample size. As eluded to, the Twins judged Parmelee on a similar sample size that included Spring Training and a short debut and he clearly wasn't ready. Dozier's big league potential at the plate was evaluated based on a season at AA (age 24 no less).

    So, while I'm definitely excited about how Revere is doing, he hasn't done enough to prove yet, IMO, that he's turned it around enough to be an MLB regular starter. Nor, in the context of this discussion, does success over 100 ABs suddenly alter the idea that the Twins have depth at OF.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montecore View Post
    Souhan is wrong as usual. There's never any rigor to his argument. "Span is a wonderful guy. Get rid of him." Cheap, fatuous cynicism. That's his raison d'etre.
    Ironically, I'm often critical of him for just the opposite, he focuses too much on the character of a player (Cuddyer, Slowey, Dozier) as a condition for which we should keep/move them. But, yes, he definitely lacks rigor on a regular basis.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    Ironically, I'm often critical of him for just the opposite, he focuses too much on the character of a player (Cuddyer, Slowey, Dozier) as a condition for which we should keep/move them. But, yes, he definitely lacks rigor on a regular basis.
    ---What's also interesting is that while that's consistently an issue for Souhan with the Twins (and in all fairness, he has a point on Slowey), he's completely the opposite on the T-Wolves. Every other month he writes a column railing on David Kahn for not drafting DeMarcus Cousins that includes a rant about how his talent justifies having to deal with his character issues.

  8. #48
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scheherezade View Post
    Revere's batting .326/.361/.424 and is 8/9 on stolen bases this year in 92ABs. Do you really need a lot more than that for a speedy OF lead-off hitter?
    Rickey Henderson brought all that plus power. There's nothing wrong with starting a game ahead 1-0. And the threat of power brings more walks, boosting the OBP that your leadoff hitter thrives on.

    If Revere is able to maintain this pace for his batting average then obviously he's an asset. If he drops to .279 then he's really not, whereas a more complete hitter like Henderson remained an asset (and then some) with his lifetime .279. I hope Revere can do it. It's rare to hit .326 in the majors, but it would be cool if he can be one of the few.
    Last edited by ashburyjohn; 06-09-2012 at 12:04 PM.

  9. #49
    I didn't read Souhan's article, but I agree with his premise as stated on this thread.

    The Twins do have good outfield depth to replace Denard Span.

    Of course, that statement makes certain assumptions that are certainly debatable. One, it assumes that Revere can replace Span's center field and lead off contributions. I firmly believe he can. Second, it assumes that right field will be at least as good without Revere. I think it can be.

    So, instead of:

    LF: Willingham/Plouffe/Parmalee
    CF: Span/Revere/Mastroianni
    RF: Revere/Doumit/Plouffe/Mastroianni

    The Twins would have:

    LF: Willingham/Plouffe/Parmalee
    CF: Revere/Mastroianni
    RF: Doumit/Plouffe/Mastroianni/[Arcia?]

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    Obviously not, and if he continues to hit this way, then that changes the discussion a bit. However, it's only 92 AB. As mentioned I hope it's indictative of actual improvement and not due to small sample size. As eluded to, the Twins judged Parmelee on a similar sample size that included Spring Training and a short debut and he clearly wasn't ready. Dozier's big league potential at the plate was evaluated based on a season at AA (age 24 no less).

    So, while I'm definitely excited about how Revere is doing, he hasn't done enough to prove yet, IMO, that he's turned it around enough to be an MLB regular starter. Nor, in the context of this discussion, does success over 100 ABs suddenly alter the idea that the Twins have depth at OF.
    The sample size is much greater than 92 ABs. Without even looking at his impressive minor league numbers, he got 400+ ABs as a 23-year-old rookie. Now, the numbers weren't all that great, but they were certainly something that coaches expect to built upon. Which he's done so far.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by CharacterGroove View Post
    The sample size is much greater than 92 ABs. Without even looking at his impressive minor league numbers, he got 400+ ABs as a 23-year-old rookie. Now, the numbers weren't all that great, but they were certainly something that coaches expect to built upon. Which he's done so far.
    I agree, the sample size is much bigger, but as you mentioned it isn't good when you include those other 400. My point was the sample size of his success is small.

    As for other thoughts, for Revere to equal Span's contributions at leadoff, he has to hit around .330 unless he starts taking more walks.

    Plouffe , Mastroianni, Parmelee in right (if Span is traded) don't really equal a quality MLB starter unless they get significantly better.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by CharacterGroove View Post

    The Twins do have good outfield depth to replace Denard Span.

    Of course, that statement makes certain assumptions that are certainly debatable. One, it assumes that Revere can replace Span's center field and lead off contributions. I firmly believe he can. Second, it assumes that right field will be at least as good without Revere. I think it can be.



    The Twins would have:

    LF: Willingham/Plouffe/Parmalee
    CF: Revere/Mastroianni
    RF: Doumit/Plouffe/Mastroianni/[Arcia?]
    Your proposed depth chart belies your opening declarative supposition. Leaving the Twins with only one proven full-time ML outfielder (Willingham) and "belief" and "assumptions" about your starting CF and RF usually cost a GM his job, if those beliefs and assumptions don't work out (Revere DOES look better the third time out, but it's probably too soon to dump Span with his team-friendly contract without a great haul in return-of-trade). In addition, it appear the Twins are headed in the direction of using Plouffe and Doumit in other more primary roles, and neither are good defensively in the OF. Mastroianni is a defensive replacement/PR 4th/5th OF, at best and Parmelee might morph into Kubel at some point, but still relies on belief and assumption in the short-term, looking out this and next season. I like fast-tracking Arcia, but you'd still be heavy on belief and assumption.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Your proposed depth chart belies your opening declarative supposition. Leaving the Twins with only one proven full-time ML outfielder (Willingham) and "belief" and "assumptions" about your starting CF and RF usually cost a GM his job, if those beliefs and assumptions don't work out (Revere DOES look better the third time out, but it's probably too soon to dump Span with his team-friendly contract without a great haul in return-of-trade). In addition, it appear the Twins are headed in the direction of using Plouffe and Doumit in other more primary roles, and neither are good defensively in the OF. Mastroianni is a defensive replacement/PR 4th/5th OF, at best and Parmelee might morph into Kubel at some point, but still relies on belief and assumption in the short-term, looking out this and next season. I like fast-tracking Arcia, but you'd still be heavy on belief and assumption.
    Being that we're prognosticating on future events, I'm comfortable making assumptions and statements based on belief. For instance, I'm assuming Span will not fall into a tailspin and end up with numbers like in 2010 and 2011 - mediocre at best. Projections go both ways. If you want to have a conversation void of assumptions and beliefs, and just stick to the hard numbers, start a thread about the 2011 Twins.

    I'm also not making any suggestion that we should "dump" Denard Span. I'm not even sure why that's a point of discussion. The entire point is about getting a great "return-of-trade" in the context of the Twins' strengths and weaknesses. It's my position - and apparently Souhan's - that the Twins have good outfield depth as it applies to their 40-man roster. What the Twins do not have is good starting pitching.

    As I mentioned, it's certainly debatable but I believe that Revere is good replacement for Span in centerfield and the combination of Plouffe/Doumit/Parmelee can adequately replace Revere in right. I do not think the Twins are better in the outfield without Denard Span, of course, but that's how trading works. The other team wants value too. The goal is to have a better team (either in the short or long term - or both), not a better outfield.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by CharacterGroove View Post
    Being that we're prognosticating on future events, I'm comfortable making assumptions and statements based on belief. For instance, I'm assuming Span will not fall into a tailspin and end up with numbers like in 2010 and 2011 - mediocre at best. Projections go both ways. If you want to have a conversation void of assumptions and beliefs, and just stick to the hard numbers, start a thread about the 2011 Twins.

    I'm also not making any suggestion that we should "dump" Denard Span. I'm not even sure why that's a point of discussion. The entire point is about getting a great "return-of-trade" in the context of the Twins' strengths and weaknesses. It's my position - and apparently Souhan's - that the Twins have good outfield depth as it applies to their 40-man roster. What the Twins do not have is good starting pitching.

    As I mentioned, it's certainly debatable but I believe that Revere is good replacement for Span in centerfield and the combination of Plouffe/Doumit/Parmelee can adequately replace Revere in right. I do not think the Twins are better in the outfield without Denard Span, of course, but that's how trading works. The other team wants value too. The goal is to have a better team (either in the short or long term - or both), not a better outfield.
    Agree with most of your reasonable conclusions, but the point of Souhan's article is based on the erroneous assumption that the Twins possess OF depth. It's fairly demonstrable that they do not. Again, Plouffe and Doumit appear destined to be playing large roles elsewhere (and the Twins must re-sign Doumit) and Parmelee is a big question mark, it might take him 2+ seasons to firmly establish himself in RF, and there's a good chance a trade for Morneau occurs, leaving 1B open.

  15. #55
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Doumit is going to seek money and years. Chris Herrmann may be able to fulfill much of his role (so hopefully they get around to promoting him to Rochester very soon instead of stalling on him). Doumit may be a trade candidate. Plouffe is hopefully making Danny Valencia irrelevant. So RF is still a question mark. Benson and Tosoni were DEMOTED. The system has some OF depth, but the Twins strictly as the MLB team do not.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    Doumit is going to seek money and years. Chris Herrmann may be able to fulfill much of his role (so hopefully they get around to promoting him to Rochester very soon instead of stalling on him). .
    100% agreed. JR Towles is hitting a Buteresque .193/.242/.295 at Rochester and he needs to go. Promote Herrmann to AAA, Pinto to AA, Koch to Fort Myers, add one of the EST Cs to Beloit (Quintera?) and call it a day.

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Agree with most of your reasonable conclusions, but the point of Souhan's article is based on the erroneous assumption that the Twins possess OF depth. It's fairly demonstrable that they do not. Again, Plouffe and Doumit appear destined to be playing large roles elsewhere (and the Twins must re-sign Doumit) and Parmelee is a big question mark, it might take him 2+ seasons to firmly establish himself in RF, and there's a good chance a trade for Morneau occurs, leaving 1B open.
    Some fair points. My reply is that your conclusion is only demonstrable if you assume the destinies of Plouffe and Doumit and assume that Parmelee does not improve on his Spring 2012 form. You may be right. Going beyond this year, it also assumes the growth of our top outfield prospects. It's possible I'm just much more optimistic than you about our outfield options moving forward.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by CharacterGroove View Post
    Some fair points. My reply is that your conclusion is only demonstrable if you assume the destinies of Plouffe and Doumit and assume that Parmelee does not improve on his Spring 2012 form. You may be right. Going beyond this year, it also assumes the growth of our top outfield prospects. It's possible I'm just much more optimistic than you about our outfield options moving forward.

    Nothing wrong with being optimistic.

    My perspective,though, was that these players haven't shown evidence (except in very small stretches) that there is reason to. Taking a look at their development, they don't have the same record that potential ML OF show in the minors. In fact, most of their limited success in the minors has come when they are more experienced than the competition. Until one of them shows that they have made some significant change, the Twins can't pretend they have even a single future starting caliber OF of the bunch.

    BTW, the minor point regarding Souhan's comment was that he believed Span should be traded due to outfield depth.

    So, my point is that if any decisions are made now about perceived outfield depth, those decisions are being made far to hastily.

    Hope that makes sense.

  19. #59
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    The Twins are in Dire Straits. We have a rebuilt bullpen that is doing alright and yet no one has faith in it. The pitching rotation is being led Diamond and Walters. A pair who have been cast aside by other clubs... The other guys have been inconsisentant at best or downright terrible.

    On offense we have a couple of superstars who get injured frequently. An infield is led by a 38 year old journeyman... The 185th ranked prospect at SS and a kid out of options that was recently hitting .120 something before his recent resurgence.

    Look at the team... Willingham, Span and Revere is the best thing happening on the MLB Twins. Down on the farm, our highest rated prospects are outfielders. 3 out of the top 6 are outfielders yet none of them are top 60 in ranking. The one guy we have that is near the top ten in Sano Is years off from helping and projected to a possible move to the OF and our 2nd pick overall is a Projected Eric Davis type OF.

    If you polled 30 General managers and asked them where the Twins organization was the strongest 28 of them would say OF. 1 of them would break out into a laughing fit at the consideration of the question and the other would decline to participate because he is currently running the Twins and doing a price check on a physician to help him with his growing ulcer caused by the fact that the Twins have no depth anywhere.

    I'm a Span Fan but if he can fetch anything that will turn this ship around. Away he should go for a good package of players. If no trade like that is possible... He's welcome to stay but it won't matter WITHOUT pitching. Trade Span and give Carson a spin for awhile... It won't matter without PITCHING.

    We don't have depth anywhere... Not even close but OF is as deep as we can get. People can talk about keeping Span and wouldn't it be nice but I hope to God someone in the front office is getting really serious about bringing some serious arms into the organization.

    Its hard to do because everyone wants pitching. It will take a Span to get some potential pitching and thats about all we got right now.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 06-10-2012 at 11:31 PM.

  20. #60
    I love span, the guy can hit, and draws a lot of walks. He is solid in center. You gotta think that some teams would be interested in that. Maybe a contender who needs a leadoff guy. Kind of like the Shannon Stewart trade for the twins in 03.

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