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Thread: Which Team Is The Real Twins?

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz View Post
    he had reached the point of no return with Rick Anderson tho. Andywas no longer getting anything out of him & they had to dump him for nothing......then he returned to form. Kind of like Jose MiJares this year also.....or Frankie Liriano next yr. Or how about not getting anything out of RA Dickey but repeatedly giving Nick Blackburn chance after chance (tho contract dictates that)
    I assume your claim is that Mijares is a much different pitcher in this third of a season than he was with the Twins...I think? How is that like Lohse who was almost exactly the same before and after? And how does either necessarily have anything to do with Anderson? Especially when Lohse has been with three organizations since leaving and has been the same guy across those three as he was here? Even more confused about the Dickey/Blackburn comparison in regard to this thread and my post.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    Definitely shouldn't have been in the washed up list, but speaking of distorted concepts of Lohse...this is one of those things that somehow has taken life with little basis in fact that he somehow became much better after the Twins. He's been remarkably similar as an ex-Twin as he was as a Twin.
    The statistical(ly significant) similar, but definitely improved across-the-board, life of its own:

    Lohse 2002-2007: OBA: .281/WHIP: 1.45/K-BB 1.91/HR-9: 1.27/GB%: 37/ERA: 4.80/FIP: 4.68

    Lohse 2008-2012: OBA: .268/WHIP: 1.32/K-BB 2.34/HR-9: .89/GB%: 44/ERA: 4.16/FIP: 3.99

    I think it's fair to say Lohse matured and blossomed in a new setting and would look a lot better in the Twins rotation in 2012 than Zach Ward.

  3. #23
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    And

    And, Dickey was competent plus while he was here and they just threw him away like garbage. Lohse showed signs of being good while he was here, but , again didn't fit the procrustean Twins mold and was junked. Who made these decisions? My guess is Gardenhire who has to have a player suck up to him to be considered good. He's a ****ing idiot.

  4. #24
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    I've set the first 36 games aside. That was the low point when you consider winning% (.278) combined with games under .500 (-16). The offense was hitting .235/.313/.350 with 3.3 R/G, pitching had 5.28 ERA and 5.4 K/9, Run Differential was -72. In game #37, Morneau came off the DL and brought some power back to the lineup. In the 20 games since the offense is hitting .264/.329/.425 with 5.2 R/G, the pitching has a 4.58 ERA and 6.7 K/9, and the Differential is +2 (due to too many unearned runs). Those numbers are sustainable. All things being equal, I'd expect the Twins to sit give or take 12 games under .500 for the rest of the season. The question is whether they'll hit a hot streak like the White Sox have been on recently, and how much such a streak would offset the hole they've dug themselves.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The statistical(ly significant) similar, but definitely improved across-the-board, life of its own:

    Lohse 2002-2007: OBA: .281/WHIP: 1.45/K-BB 1.91/HR-9: 1.27/GB%: 37/ERA: 4.80/FIP: 4.68

    Lohse 2008-2012: OBA: .268/WHIP: 1.32/K-BB 2.34/HR-9: .89/GB%: 44/ERA: 4.16/FIP: 3.99

    I think it's fair to say Lohse matured and blossomed in a new setting and would look a lot better in the Twins rotation in 2012 than Zach Ward.
    Lohse didn't play for the Twins in '07, nor half of '06. He moved from AL to NL where fewer runs are scored. Scoring has also been coming down in both leagues overall making post-move numbers lower than pre-move (the league change and the scoring trend account for about half the small ERA/FIP differences). And his best year post-Twins was 2011 (and thus far 2012 is following suit), which is five years after he left the Twins.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montecore View Post
    And, Dickey was competent plus while he was here and they just threw him away like garbage. Lohse showed signs of being good while he was here, but , again didn't fit the procrustean Twins mold and was junked. Who made these decisions? My guess is Gardenhire who has to have a player suck up to him to be considered good. He's a ****ing idiot.
    Well there were 3 f***ing idiots preceding Gardy who also dumped Dickey, give me a break, choosing him and Lohse as examples is convenient logic.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    Lohse didn't play for the Twins in '07, nor half of '06. He moved from AL to NL where fewer runs are scored. Scoring has also been coming down in both leagues overall making post-move numbers lower than pre-move (the league change and the scoring trend account for about half the small ERA/FIP differences). And his best year post-Twins was 2011 (and thus far 2012 is following suit), which is five years after he left the Twins.

    In my initial post, I need to point out I plainly stated I wasn't doing a Twins-Cards comparison, I was suggesting that it was a matter of Lohse finding the right franchise and then a comparison vs. all the rest. There are ways to adjust for the league differences and the relative decline in overall scoring ( FYI, as an aside- The difference between the leagues' ERA was 4% from 2002-2007 and it remained 4% from 2008-2012). There are 1.5 years of NL pitching stats embedded in Lohse's 02-07 stats, negating a good chunk of the AL/NL differential. For example, Lohse's ERA in the first half of his career is 7% above league average ERA (4.5 yrs. AL/1.5 yrs. NL), while his second-half career ERA is only 2% above NL averages for the same period- but that's not all. Adjusting and coupling that number with his improved FIP relative to ERA of the NL average (another 1.6% increase relative to his first half career relative ERA/FIP ratio, indicates that Lohse is close to league average in ERA, indicating a just-under 7% improvement in his pitching performance relative to the league he played in, from the first half of his career.

    Again, this may have just been a matter of maturity, and I think we may be talking past each other. By all accounts, Lohse is very happy in his mid-end starting role in St Louis, in contrast to the Twins and fans giving up on him, followed by the Twins giving him away for nothing, they simply didn't know what they had and dumped him at the EXACT LOW POINT of his career (WHIP: 1.65/ERA: 7.07). I freely admit to being among the frustrated while he was here, but he obviously had a healthy arm that had unappreciated value to a low-budget team replete with a lack of pitching depth. Can we agree that his subsequent career has merited being worth more than Zach Ward?
    Last edited by jokin; 06-07-2012 at 10:44 PM.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    In my initial post, I need to point out I plainly stated I wasn't doing a Twins-Cards comparison, I was suggesting that it was a matter of Lohse finding the right franchise and then a comparison vs. all the rest. There are ways to adjust for the league differences and the relative decline in overall scoring ( FYI, as an aside- The difference between the leagues' ERA was 4% in 2007 and it remains 4% in 2012). There are 1.5 years of NL pitching stats embedded in Lohse's 02-07 stats, negating a good chunk of the AL/NL differential. For example, Lohse's ERA in the first half of his career is 7% above league average ERA (4.5 yrs. AL/1.5 yrs. NL), while his second-half career ERA is only 2% above NL averages for the same period- but that's not all. Adjusting and coupling that number with his improved FIP relative to ERA of the NL average (another 1.6% increase relative to his first half career relative ERA/FIP ratio, indicates that Lohse is close to league average in ERA, indicating a just-under 7% improvement in his pitching performance relative to the league he played in, from the first half of his career.

    Again, this may have just been a matter of maturity, and I think we may be talking past each other. By all accounts, Lohse is very happy in his mid-end starting role in St Louis, in contrast to the Twins and fans giving up on him, followed by the Twins giving him away for nothing, they simply didn't know what they had and dumped him at the EXACT LOW POINT of his career (WHIP: 1.65/ERA: 7.07). I freely admit to being among the frustrated while he was here, but he obviously had a healthy arm that had unappreciated value to a low-budget team replete with a lack of pitching depth. Can we agree that his subsequent career has merited being worth more than Zach Ward?
    No, you did not plainly state that you were talking about Cards vs. pre-Cards. You made comments both about the Cardinals and about the time and circumstance of Lohse leaving the Twins. And quoted a post about Lohse leaving the Twins. As long as I'm here, the difference in AL/NL ERA was not 4% in 2007, although I'm not sure what your point in bringing that up is. But I would agree that it's clear you're talking about something different than I am (I'm still not sure what point that is), which makes me wonder why you keep quoting my posts to talk about a different thing.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    No, you did not plainly state that you were talking about Cards vs. pre-Cards. You made comments both about the Cardinals and about the time and circumstance of Lohse leaving the Twins. And quoted a post about Lohse leaving the Twins. As long as I'm here, the difference in AL/NL ERA was not 4% in 2007, although I'm not sure what your point in bringing that up is. But I would agree that it's clear you're talking about something different than I am (I'm still not sure what point that is), which makes me wonder why you keep quoting my posts to talk about a different thing.
    It's called a smokescreen.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    No, you did not plainly state that you were talking about Cards vs. pre-Cards.
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    All it took was a good managerial and coaching staff at the Cardinals for Kyle to realize his full potential.

    There is an apparent reading comprehension problem in understanding a fairly straightforward comment. I am coming to the conclusion that this isn't a comprehension problem, as you write quite well, the only conclusion I can come to is you are employed by the Twins or take your loyalty to new levels of extremes.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    As long as I'm here, the difference in AL/NL ERA was not 4% in 2007, although I'm not sure what your point in bringing that up is. But I would agree that it's clear you're talking about something different than I am (I'm still not sure what point that is), which makes me wonder why you keep quoting my posts to talk about a different thing.
    OK, I'm going back on my comprehension theory back to the original supposition. My point was pretty straightforward about Lohse's improvement as he matured, demonstrated conclusively, adjusting for the AL/NL differences.

    I did speak with insufficient clarity about the 4% difference in ERA. As I was computing Lohse's stats for the two eras of his career relative to the league he played in, I meant to say that there was a 4% difference between the leagues over the 2002-7 span and also the 2008-12 span. I apologize for my mischaracterization. Here are the actual breakdowns in the year 2007, the difference in ERA that year was only 1.8%:

    LEAGUE AVERAGES GP W L ERA SV CG SHO IP QS ER R BB SO BAA
    American League 162 82 80 4.51 40 5 8 1441 78 721 781 531 1064 .269
    National League 162 80 82 4.43 40 3 8 1453 77 714 774 540 1081 .267



    IMO, your original point was that Lohse is the same pitcher as he was when the Twins dumped him, if that was true, would the Cards trade him for Zach Ward's clone on June 7, 2012? I showed why that isn't categorically true, adjusting for league and park differences he has improved, incrementally to be sure. You also are stubborn in being unwilling to admit that Lohse was dumped at his absolute lowest value possible as a Twin, and that his numbers overwhelmingly suggest he would look pretty good on the Twins staff in 2012.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    There is an apparent reading comprehension problem in understanding a fairly straightforward comment. I am coming to the conclusion that this isn't a comprehension problem, as you write quite well, the only conclusion I can come to is you are employed by the Twins or take your loyalty to new levels of extremes.
    Neither of those conclusions is true, so you appear correct in your diagnosis of reading comprehension shortcomings.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    It's called a smokescreen.
    Facts aren't cigars and I don't smoke.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    You also are stubborn in being unwilling to admit that Lohse was dumped at his absolute lowest value possible as a Twin, and that his numbers overwhelmingly suggest he would look pretty good on the Twins staff in 2012.
    Do I also need to "admit" that the sky often appears blue? OK...I'll quit being stubborn. I'll admit something is true that I never ever ever ever suggested might not be true...the sky DOES often appear blue.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    Do I also need to "admit" that the sky often appears blue? OK...I'll quit being stubborn. I'll admit something is true that I never ever ever ever suggested might not be true...the sky DOES often appear blue.
    It's called acknowledging the facts on the table. The Twins and Lohse failed to reach his full potential during his time here, took a disastrous step backward at the end and got nothing in return for the time and money spent on his development. You say he is the same pitcher then as now, the Cardinals say he is worth $11.8 Million and stuck with him during his disastrous 2010 season, the Twins concluded he was worth nothing and got nothing in return.

  16. #36
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    We'll stick with the 2002-2007 and 2008-2012 time frames because I see the idea of pre-Dave Duncan and post-Dave Duncan type argument. (Data from Fangraphs)

    2002-2007 ERA- 105/FIP- 100/xFIP- 104
    2008-2012 ERA- 106/FIP- 101/xFIP- 104

    So basically the same slightly below average pitcher in both time frames adjusted for league and park.

    This does not change the fact that he would be a welcome addition to the rotation, but that has more to do with the rotation than anything Lohse has done.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Facts aren't cigars and I don't smoke.
    Are facts convenient bits of truth, cherry picked to support your theory and supported entirely by hindsight?

    I wish they were beer, I could use one after reading this s**t.

  18. #38
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    And yes, in hindsight I would still like to have Lohse.

  19. #39
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    This team is more than capable of playing .500 baseball the rest of the year. In fact, I think they'll do just that. The lineup should have been bright spot all along and has been adequate, the bullpen a surprising bright spot for sure, especially in comparison to yesteryear, but starting pitching will continue to be a roller coaster. Starting pitching is the most important thing is baseball. Period. Look at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Horrible offense, but they win many games 2-1 3-1.
    Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.

  20. #40
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    I went out on a limb before the season and said that the Twins would surprise a lot of people. A ceiling of ~85 wins, but I predicted around 80 or so. I got a lot of laughs through April and much of May.

    That said, I think the "real" Twins are only a piece or two away from respectability (to avoid a virtual shouting match with jokin, please note that all I said was "respectability"). They may yet get to 80 wins, but that would be a pretty impressive run. If the pitching call-ups keep producing, we'll be just fine. The bats have never been a problem - there's enough firepower throughout the lineup to keep opposing defenses honest through spotty injuries and the inevitable streaks. And the bullpen has been an incredible surprise to me. What seemed like a weak link before the season has been lights out. Show me a #1 starter, and I'll show you a team that can win.

    One thing that I think we can all agree on is that last year's Twins were not the "real" Twins. Not when 7 of 9 positions were a patchwork of injury-replacements.

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