Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 27

Thread: Article: Grading In A Void

  1. #1
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
    Posts
    2,429
    Twitter
    @twinsgeek
    Like
    1
    Liked 157 Times in 93 Posts
    Blog Entries
    240

    Article: Grading In A Void


  2. #2
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Posts
    6,436
    Twitter
    @sethtweets
    Like
    64
    Liked 347 Times in 183 Posts
    Blog Entries
    515
    ... and in 7 years, we'll be able to adequately judge what happened today. Great article, John. Great job of laying out what we don't know.

    I don't see anything cheap about their picks. I do think that we could see some negotiating strategies based on the new set up. The onlyt hink I would disagree with would be that Berrios and Bard "don't have that high bonus expectations others might have had." I would argue that they, and their representatives, will believe that they are worth, at least, the spot's slot numbers.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Triple-A TwinsGuy55422's Avatar
    Posts
    244
    Like
    0
    Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    As you pointed out, I think it is human nature to want to label and categorize things into neat little rankings, especially if you're a type A personality which a lot of stats people are. It's difficult to accept the unknown and that answers may not come for a while. I've tried to let go of grading things prematurely and just enjoy the process of watching the players develop.

  4. #4
    Drafting is not just about picking the right guy, it's about picking the right guy in the right place. Bard may surprise, but the Twins almost certainly could have taken him later and had a much better chance at a quality player with their third pick. While that is a simple concept, I honestly don't believe Terry Ryan understands the absolute basics of game theory.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    640
    Like
    5
    Liked 28 Times in 13 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Here are some IFs:
    If Bard signs for under slot and
    If they draft HS arms tomorrow and
    If they sign for over slot
    Then we can say that Ryan was smart for picking Bard
    If Bard does not sign for underslot and
    If they only pick other college type guys that also sign for slot
    Then we can scratch our heads and hope Twins Scouts see something in Bard others do not.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    Here are some IFs:
    If Bard signs for under slot and
    If they draft HS arms tomorrow and
    If they sign for over slot
    Then we can say that Ryan was smart for picking Bard
    If Bard does not sign for underslot and
    If they only pick other college type guys that also sign for slot
    Then we can scratch our heads and hope Twins Scouts see something in Bard others do not.
    I'm betting on the last three lines being more correct.

  7. #7
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
    Posts
    2,429
    Twitter
    @twinsgeek
    Like
    1
    Liked 157 Times in 93 Posts
    Blog Entries
    240
    Quote Originally Posted by twinstalker View Post
    Drafting is not just about picking the right guy, it's about picking the right guy in the right place. Bard may surprise, but the Twins almost certainly could have taken him later and had a much better chance at a quality player with their third pick. While that is a simple concept, I honestly don't believe Terry Ryan understands the absolute basics of game theory.
    Why would you think that the other 29 GMs are all in sync with the rankings of Baseball America, etc? I suppose one could surmise that Baseball America gleans their info from BA, but why would they share the picks they really like?

  8. #8
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,625
    Like
    1,121
    Liked 535 Times in 354 Posts
    Slightly? So your whole post is, no need to really discuss the draft? One or both of those guys would be there in round 2. Revere was a good pick because their other picks suck? I'm not sure I understand this blog post, unless the point is, we should just trust the scouts because they have jobs. How'd that work out in Pittsburgh lately? Or for the the Detroit Lions when Millen was the GM?
    Last edited by mike wants wins; 06-05-2012 at 08:05 AM.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Slightly? So your whole post is, no need to really discuss the draft? One or both of those guys would be there in round 2. Revere was a good pick because their other picks suck? I'm not sure I understand this blog post, unless the point is, we should just trust the scouts because they have jobs. How'd that work out in Pittsburgh lately? Or for the the Detroit Lions when Millen was the GM?
    So what should they have done instead?

    I think that the point of the article was that there are a plethora of variables that go into draft picks that lay people like you and I have no comprehension of, and we are going to have to wait patiently to see if these particular picks pan out, regardless of where we think that they should have been picked.

    Oh, and we don't have the Pirate scouts, or Matt Millen so your comparison of them to the Twins is irrelevant.

  10. #10
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,625
    Like
    1,121
    Liked 535 Times in 354 Posts
    Not really. The logical argument being made is that we should trust the scouts because they have the job. I showed that isn't true, so the logic does not hold. I do not know what they should have done, but if we are going to discuss the draft, shouldn't we use the information we have to do that? Not sure what people want out of a discussion on the draft if they do not want to discuss positives and negatives.

  11. #11
    No, the logical argument being made is that there are far more unknowns than there are knowns, that draft picks more often than not don't work out, and that the people commenting at this site (and every other baseball blog in America) have less information than do the people making the draft picks. That's not "trust the scouts," it's "we're not in a very good position to know anything whatsoever so we'll see what happens perhaps not before 7 years is up."

  12. #12
    I think the original premise of the article was correct...we can discuss all we want...we will know the results of this draft in 2017. There will be busts, there will be injuries, somebody picked later than round 10 will be a superstar. Do we know who any of these will be?? NO!!!

    When I was a college kid many years ago, the NY Mets had a chance at a 5 tools OF with the first overall pick of the draft. They didnt take him. They went with a catcher instead to fill a need--there was also an argument about being cheap. Did the NY Mets make the right choice?? NO!!! Their catcher--Steve Chillcott got hurt and did nothing. The 5 tools OF turned out to be Reggie Jackson. The Mets fans were split on the choice...we just have to wait and see.

    I hope Buxton turns out to be Kirby or Torii or at least better than Revere. But we need to wait. Would I have picked him?? NO!! I would have gone with Appel--we need good pitching...but lets wait and see.

  13. #13
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
    Posts
    2,429
    Twitter
    @twinsgeek
    Like
    1
    Liked 157 Times in 93 Posts
    Blog Entries
    240
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I do not know what they should have done, but if we are going to discuss the draft, shouldn't we use the information we have to do that? Not sure what people want out of a discussion on the draft if they do not want to discuss positives and negatives.
    That's the point of the story. Given next to no information, and given the need to discuss this, we take what little info we have, add to it broadher perceptions about the organization, and create a reality behind the scenes.

    For the record, I have no problem with doing this. In fact, I like to do this. I just think that after we do this we need to acknowledge the mine-sized grain of salt it should come with. We're basing our view of reality on almost nothing. It's far more likely to tell us something about ourselves than about the team.

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
    Posts
    1,094
    Like
    15
    Liked 122 Times in 61 Posts
    Blog Entries
    77
    I find it highly entertaining that so many fans just assume Baseball America and other similar sites know more about every draftable ballplayer than the teams do. Seriously... why should teams even employ scouts? Just draft based on BA's rankings, right? Oh... and of course factor in bloggers' rankings, too.

  15. #15
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,534
    Like
    61
    Liked 339 Times in 216 Posts
    Then perhaps we need to see a new thread detailing the 06-08 drafts seeing that the theory is that we have had enough time to evaluate those players. Just a guess but pretty sure the tone for that thread would be as negative if not more so than the current mood of this forum.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    I find it highly entertaining that so many fans just assume Baseball America and other similar sites know more about every draftable ballplayer than the teams do. Seriously... why should teams even employ scouts? Just draft based on BA's rankings, right? Oh... and of course factor in bloggers' rankings, too.
    Amen to that.

    It always amazes me the press the socalled draft experts like Mel Kiper JR get--but nobody looks back to see 5 years later to see how bad Mel's choices were.

  17. #17
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,625
    Like
    1,121
    Liked 535 Times in 354 Posts
    I'm (I won't talk for others) not assuming BA or ESPN know more than the Twins' scouts. I'm assuming they know more than I do, or anyone else on this site does. Since the Twins are not willing to share their analysis and decision making with us (rightly so), the only data I have is the data from BA and ESPN (and similar sites). So I base my thoughts on the draft on that information. I suppose I could change my personality, and just go "well, we won't know for 7 years, so I won't even think about it", but that's not likely to happen. At this point, I'm really done talking about whether or not we should analyze the draft or not, it's not going to change anyone's mind one way or the other. If there are threads talking about how well we think the Twins did, I'll comment on those, continuing to do so based on what little knowledge we are able to scrape up on the interwebs and tv and radio. It's really no different, imo, than talking about whether or not we think Hicks will ever be good or not, or whether or not the trade for Scott Diamond was a good idea at the time it was made.
    Lighten up Francis....

  18. #18
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,625
    Like
    1,121
    Liked 535 Times in 354 Posts
    IN defense of "so called draft experts", they do usually do an article or three assessing how well they did 2-4 years ago. Absolutely those articles are on web sites, every single year. Kiper does it, others do it. It simply isn't fair to accuse them of not talking about their past mistakes, because they do.
    Lighten up Francis....

  19. #19
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    153
    Like
    0
    Liked 8 Times in 7 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    That's the point of the story. Given next to no information, and given the need to discuss this, we take what little info we have, add to it broadher perceptions about the organization, and create a reality behind the scenes.

    For the record, I have no problem with doing this. In fact, I like to do this. I just think that after we do this we need to acknowledge the mine-sized grain of salt it should come with. We're basing our view of reality on almost nothing. It's far more likely to tell us something about ourselves than about the team.
    Ahhh...A kindred spirit.

  20. #20
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    153
    Like
    0
    Liked 8 Times in 7 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    ...the only data I have is the data from BA and ESPN (and similar sites). So I base my thoughts on the draft on that information...
    Mike, there's data...and there's opinions. Information can be either, but there is an important distinction to be made.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.