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Thread: Article: DRAFT DAY: Twins Myth #3448: Outfield Depth

  1. #1
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Article: DRAFT DAY: Twins Myth #3448: Outfield Depth


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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I think that you can look at this another way: Three out of your top 7 prospects are outfielders, a forth (the Twins' second best prospect) is being converted to 2B from the OF, and the fifth, the top prospect, might as well end up at the OF.

    Given than, at least as far as prospects go, the Twins do have indeed a lot of OF depth and are top-heavy in OFs. This does not mean that it is bad, because they can always trade some to fill a need...
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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Haha, yeah, the Benson/Tosoni situation this year makes for a herd at A+ and AA instead of a clear line of depth through AAA. I would still say that other than middle relief types, the OF situation is better than everything else in the system, though. Nate Roberts, JD Williams, and Dereck Rodriguez are also involved down at A-/A+ for 2013.

    The Best Player Available approach relies on there being a clear best player available, and what "best" even means (higher ceiling, lower floor, etc?). Just between *position players* it isn't clear between Buxton and Correa, and maybe Zunino as well. Add in the pitchers from Appel to Giolito (and, I would add in Fried as well), and I just don't see much clarity about the best player available.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Dilligaf69's Avatar
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    Just Grab the best Pitcher available! We need someone who can make an impact in 1 or 2 yrs not wait 4-6 for an OF.

  5. #5
    Great post Seth, and I'll add this: Let's say for the sake of argument that Benson and Hicks do materialize into the everyday MLB starters we hope they can be; or that Span stays a Twin and Revere adds more plate discipline to his game, and the Twins suddenly have a glut of very, very good outfielders at the MLB and minor league levels.

    The worst case, then, if the Twins take Buxton, is that he becomes a tradeable asset in the event the Twins do look for front-line pitching (or another area that needs filling) in the next few years.
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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    The biggest thing TwinsDaily followers don't put much thought into is how many of the outfielders will pan out. Does everyone really expect Hicks, Morales, Kepler, etc. to all reach the MLB and have good careers? Byron Buxton is only a HS kid and 18 years old. It will take at least 3 years to develop him and probably longer than that. The Twins of 2016/2017 may not have this kind of outfield depth. This is the reason you go BPA because the minor league is so unpredictable.

    For example, if Buxton has a 15% chance of "success" and every other player has a 14% or less, you take that extra percent. Most may say he IS more risky than the other choices and this is a losing point, but I think upside/natural talent makes prospects more likely to reach the majors.

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    Senior Member Double-A Cap'n Piranha's Avatar
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    No mention of Arcia in this article. Are we assuming it is DH or bust for him at the Major League Level?

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    YHIMH, true, but the "panning out" situation is worse at every other position! That's the thing, maybe the OF depth isn't really deep, but everything about this is relative. It's deeper than everything else except middle relief pitching.

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cap'n Piranha View Post
    No mention of Arcia in this article. Are we assuming it is DH or bust for him at the Major League Level?
    I noticed that right away too. But this statement from the article made me refrain from commenting about it.

    "Obviously there are several more outfielders in the system, four to five per team, but for people to say that the Twins have huge outfield depth is, unfortunately, no longer the case."

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    YHIMH, true, but the "panning out" situation is worse at every other position! That's the thing, maybe the OF depth isn't really deep, but everything about this is relative. It's deeper than everything else except middle relief pitching.
    I see what you mean, but I'm really just trying to say I'd rather draft a 1st tier OF (at a position of "no need")than a 2nd tier SP (position of need).

  11. #11
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Mr. Ed's Avatar
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    Hicks and Arcia should be stopped from Switch-Hitting. Start working the side that they're most effective at.

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    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Thank you! This is the point I've been trying to make and why I think you take Buxton if he's available.

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Ed View Post
    Hicks and Arcia should be stopped from Switch-Hitting. Start working the side that they're most effective at.
    Arcia only bats left-handed.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    I see what you mean, but I'm really just trying to say I'd rather draft a 1st tier OF (at a position of "no need")than a 2nd tier SP (position of need).
    Oh, yeah, I understand. If the Twins really have it shaking out that way and that Buxton is in a tier of his own, than ok. I just can't imagine how that should be the case. At this point, I just want them to make the damn pick.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    Arcia only bats left-handed.
    And he MURDERS RH A+ pitching. Those numbers are crazy. Jacque Jones+??? (offensively).

    I would like to see them experiment with Hicks and see if he hits RH from the right side better than from the left side. They really need to commence that experiment immediately though. If it doesn't work, maybe he goes back to switch-hitting in 2013 and starts the year at New Britain again? Seems worth the chance at improving his hitting somewhat significantly, right?

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    You must be dealing with 'bus lag,' eh? Didn't mention probably the best outfield prospect in the organization, Oswaldo Arcia?

  17. #17
    The best player in the draft is Carlos Correa. John Sickels, a Twins fan, is almost beside himself with the possibility the Twins will pass on him. (Note: you'll find a mock draft where John takes Appel, but the draft where he got to choose who he wanted, he took Correa).

  18. #18
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Fan From Afar View Post
    The worst case, then, if the Twins take Buxton, is that he becomes a tradeable asset in the event the Twins do look for front-line pitching (or another area that needs filling) in the next few years.
    I hesitate to even comment on this article because I genuinely don't care who the Twins pick because it really is such a crapshoot anyway. That said, I totally agree that, in theory, you go ahead and take the BPA even if it's at a position of relative depth, because you can always trade that depth for front line pitching.

    The problem with that theory, however, is that the Twins have not historically been willing to do that. And even when they have been willing to, a sizable number of their fans go bannanas. It was almost exactly two years ago that the Twins reportedly had offered Hicks and Ramos to Seattle for a couple months of renting Cliff Lee. People went nuts. Those are two of our top five prospects, you can't do that!!! Fine... so Lee goes to Texas and the Rangers go to the World Series, while the Twins, without anything resembling a front line pitcher, bend over and allow the Yankees to spank them three straight games and haven't sniffed .500 baseball since. Instead, the Twins get Matt Capps for Ramos and still have Hicks trying to bat his way out of AA two years later.

    Point is, it's absolutely right to draft the best player available regardless of position IF you're willing to part with legitimate prospects to fill important (and expensive) needs at critical times. But if you're NOT willing to do that, then you'd better forget drafting BPA and focus on the pitcher with the best upside, because it's the only way you'll ever get a top of the rotation pitcher.
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanewahl View Post
    ...I would like to see them experiment with Hicks and see if he hits RH from the right side better than from the left side. They really need to commence that experiment immediately though. If it doesn't work, maybe he goes back to switch-hitting in 2013 and starts the year at New Britain again? Seems worth the chance at improving his hitting somewhat significantly, right?
    This is a lot bigger deal than most realize. I don't know his history but, I think he's 22 yrs old, and he's very likely not seen a RH slider from the RH box since preteen years. And some kids in AA can crack 90 MPH with a slider. The best of them can start it at your ribs and run it off the plate. Unless Hick has terrible uncorrectable mechanics from the LH side, or left eye dominant vision to the degree he can't see in the LH box, this needs to be an absolute last resort.

  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    It was almost exactly two years ago that the Twins reportedly had offered Hicks and Ramos to Seattle for a couple months of renting Cliff Lee. People went nuts.
    Part of the reasons for that were because a. they were renting Lee for 2 months b. a single pitcher would had not make them WS contenders and c. Lee is a first class $@&%8$&

    If they traded their top 2 OF prospects for the top 2 SP prospects of another organization, it would be a totally different story.
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