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Thread: Report: Astros To Select Appel

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    Report: Astros To Select Appel

    This is according to Jim Bowden of ESPN. I hope this means the Twins decide to draft Kevin Gausman, RHP from Louisiana State. I hope they decide to pass on Byron Buxton, who is being compared to Matt Kemp and BJ and Justin Upton. I woould hate to see another HS OF taken since Aaron Hicks has still not shown much upside. Bottom line is they need pitching help that would be on the fast track and Kevin Gausman might be better than Appel.

  2. #2

    But...

    What if Buxton is a lot better than Hicks... Draft position tends to suggest this. But, yes, Gaussman would be good too. I just don't want another UCL tear.

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    Senior Member Double-A PMKI's Avatar
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    I was a big Buxton believer but lately have became very nervous about drafting him. I just feel a lot safer drafting Correa even though he is also a big unknown but the fact that he is almost a year younger than Buxton is impressive.

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    I appreciated this study over at Puckett's Pond.

    http://puckettspond.com/2012/05/15/w...e-twins-draft/

    It leaves me concerned about drafting college pitchers in hopes of getting an all star player. They appear to be the least safe pick when drafting number 2.

  5. #5
    They should draft Buxton. There is too much risk with drafting a pitcher that high for the amount they will have to pay. Pitching injuries have hurt us too much lately--we should try to acquire pitching via trade or free agency instead.

  6. #6
    The Puckett Pond study is well done but still essentially meaningless. Its the old small survey size syndrome. Over 18 years, there is about 100 guys per category. If a few college pitchers make it out of this class, or don't make it, as seems more likely given the reports of the strength of the class, the whole percentage ranking could change. They still have to draft based on the tools and makeup of each guy. I don't know anything about the personalities and talents of Buxton, Corea, Gausman et al.. I hope the actual draft guys do.

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    Has there been a perception that a college pitcher is a safe pick? If so, does it change that perception?

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    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    If he's available, you take Buxton. The upside is to much to pass on, and right now, to be blunt, while we have a number of OF prospects, this year they have been somewhat underwhelming. Benson is mired in AA after slumping miserably in Rochester, Hicks is showing promise but is not lighting up the league in AA and has been advancing slowly, and Arcia is looking good at high A, but it is still uncertain he will fully mature like the Twins hope. If we can get a better bet on an OF prospect, I say take it, especially if people are right and Span is trade-bait.

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sbknudson View Post
    If he's available, you take Buxton. The upside is to much to pass on, and right now, to be blunt, while we have a number of OF prospects, this year they have been somewhat underwhelming. Benson is mired in AA after slumping miserably in Rochester, Hicks is showing promise but is not lighting up the league in AA and has been advancing slowly, and Arcia is looking good at high A, but it is still uncertain he will fully mature like the Twins hope. If we can get a better bet on an OF prospect, I say take it, especially if people are right and Span is trade-bait.
    Well said. There is just no explanation or reason for the Twins to pass on Byron Buxton if he's available. He's the best player in the draft and has crazy upside. If the Astros are too stupid to realize it, the Twins should give them the finger, take Buxton, and laugh all the way to the bank.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer J-Dog Dungan's Avatar
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    If the Twins do take Buxton, I would assume that they would be thinking that they would try to sell one or more of their minor league outfielders to get pitching or that they are hoping they get lucky with who is left over in the compensation rounds.

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    From the little I know if its vs Buxton & Correa I go Correa. If the twins don't take a pitcher he looks to be the best.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pjnelly View Post
    They should draft Buxton. There is too much risk with drafting a pitcher that high for the amount they will have to pay. Pitching injuries have hurt us too much lately--we should try to acquire pitching via trade or free agency instead.
    OMG that was hilarious! The Twins acquiring a pitcher via trade or FA. You just gotta love a rotation made up of all #4 or 5 starters or even worse AAAA.

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    I'm just curious from the Buxton backers, why do you feel he is such a safe bet?

    Either way, making "safe" decisions is how a club wins multiple division championships but gets trounced annually in the playoffs. Congratulations Twin's front office you have finally conditioned the fan base to think taking chances is a bad thing.

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    Everything I read on Buxton is that he's the risky hitter pick, huge upside, but "hitting is his least advanced skill", sounds like Hicks to me.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    NOBODY is a safe bet - not Buxton, and not a college pitcher. No matter who they pick, you're taking a risk. The risk with a high school outfielder as that he never becomes more than a career minor-leaguer. The risk with a college pitcher is he blows out his elbow the first year he's in your organization (sound familiar?). You weigh that against the potential reward. Everybody will balance those differently, but the consensus top prospect nationwide is Buxton. Whether he's top of the Twins thinking, we'll find out.

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    Senior Member Double-A PMKI's Avatar
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    Anybody wish we would draft Giolito?

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    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I appreciated this study over at Puckett's Pond.

    http://puckettspond.com/2012/05/15/w...e-twins-draft/

    It leaves me concerned about drafting college pitchers in hopes of getting an all star player. They appear to be the least safe pick when drafting number 2.
    I enjoyed the research... It was a very interesting read. This isn't a slam of the research because I do appreciate it, but I wouldnt place much credence in it.

    1. High School Pitchers would logically be more apt to reach the elite status because the elite arms are being drafted and paid money to not attend college. College guys are later bloomers (not in all cases).

    2. Hitters are a safer bet because pitchers tend to have their arms fall off. The research was interesting but fairly predictable.

    The baseball draft is a crap shoot. Every team has missed and missed a lot. If you want the safe pick. I doubt that he is available or has a neon sign flashing safe over his head.

    Personally, I would not shy away from pitching because they are injury risks. They are and that means you need more to cover. Everybody is searching for pitching because it is critical to a teams fortune.

    The Twins pitching hole is about as steep as it gets. If you think you can trade Arcia for pitching... Umm...good luck with that. You can trade Arcia for soon to be free agent pitcher X but the Twins won't be looking for that guy.

    The college guy gets here quicker... Time is an issue... and if TR isn't factoring in time when determining the BPA for us... He is failing as Deron Johnson's boss.

    Im ok with Buxton being the draftee but damn it... He better be safe. He can't be a miss cuz we will be waiting for him and while we are waiting. Our team will be trying to figure out how to overcome 5 runs a game. We need to draft a hundred pitchers and hope that 10 percent work out.

    If Buxton is the guy and his learning curve is like Hicks. Tack on some more years to our comeback.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PMKI View Post
    Anybody wish we would draft Giolito?
    I would like that. The only problem would be how the Twins would make him pitch to contact and quit trying to blow hitters away with gas.

  19. #19
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Jim Callis of Baseball America says the Astros are still considering five names.

    About Buxton, yeah, there's risk... but with him, there is a chance for a huge reward. The Twins could take Correa. They've had a lot of luck with that island. But it's more about his bat.

    Law's ranking of each:
    Hitting: Both presently 35. Future for Buxton 70, Correa 60.
    Power: Correa presently 45, Buxton 35. Future Correa 65, Buxton 60.
    Speed: Buxton present/future 80; Correa present/future 60.
    Range: Buxton 50/70; Correa 40/60.
    Arm: Buxton 70/70; Correa 60/60

    Law has Buxton #1 on his board and Correa #2.

    I would love to be a fly on the wall in that draft room. Obviously, Hector Otero (the P.R. scout) has a feather in his cap for Eddie Rosario. The Georgia scout, Jack Powell, was the guy that recommended Shooter Hunt. Take a look below and tell me which guy you'd be more likely to listen to... obviously there's more to it than just these two scouts, but interesting nonetheless.

    (Signed picks only)

    2011: Otero - Boyd (1s), D. Rodriguez (6), Montanez (15), Torres (45)
    Powell - Gruver (7), Higginbotham (26), Leachman (37)

    2010: Otero - Rosario (4), D. Gutierrez (18)
    Powell - Goodrum (2), Fawbush (21)

    2009: Otero - Herrmann (6), Ahorrio (45), Calacano (49)
    Powell - Tootle (3)

    Players of note in 07 and 08
    2008: Otero - C. Gutierrez (1), Ortiz (4)
    Powell - Hunt (1s)

    2007: Otero - Rams (2), Morales (3)

  20. #20
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Jim Callis of Baseball America says the Astros are still considering five names.

    About Buxton, yeah, there's risk... but with him, there is a chance for a huge reward. The Twins could take Correa. They've had a lot of luck with that island. But it's more about his bat.

    Law's ranking of each:
    Hitting: Both presently 35. Future for Buxton 70, Correa 60.
    Power: Correa presently 45, Buxton 35. Future Correa 65, Buxton 60.
    Speed: Buxton present/future 80; Correa present/future 60.
    Range: Buxton 50/70; Correa 40/60.
    Arm: Buxton 70/70; Correa 60/60

    Law has Buxton #1 on his board and Correa #2.

    I would love to be a fly on the wall in that draft room. Obviously, Hector Otero (the P.R. scout) has a feather in his cap for Eddie Rosario. The Georgia scout, Jack Powell, was the guy that recommended Shooter Hunt. Take a look below and tell me which guy you'd be more likely to listen to... obviously there's more to it than just these two scouts, but interesting nonetheless.

    (Signed picks only)

    2011: Otero - Boyd (1s), D. Rodriguez (6), Montanez (15), Torres (45)
    Powell - Gruver (7), Higginbotham (26), Leachman (37)

    2010: Otero - Rosario (4), D. Gutierrez (18)
    Powell - Goodrum (2), Fawbush (21)

    2009: Otero - Herrmann (6), Ahorrio (45), Calacano (49)
    Powell - Tootle (3)

    Players of note in 07 and 08
    2008: Otero - C. Gutierrez (1), Ortiz (4)
    Powell - Hunt (1s)

    2007: Otero - Rams (2), Morales (3)
    You'd listen to Otero but you can't handicap Buxton cuz he's in the Powell region. With this high of a pick... Serious cross checking has to be happening. Powell may be the better snake oil salesman but here's to hoping that the Twins have more then Powell's ratings and advocacy.

    Great post though. I was not thinking about that angle. I'm gonna put you down on my smart poster list. You got me thinking now.

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