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Thread: Transactions ahead?

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    Trading Dozier right now would not be an A's move. They don't create holes by trading good players 4 years away from FA. They trade established players 2 years away from free agency when they have replacements ready or are receiving a replacement in return (hint hint).

    The only way you could justify trading Dozier would be if you are convinced he has peaked this year (I'm not - he should have another 2-3 years at this level) and you are receiving mlb talent at a position of need (which is not what was proposed). That type of trade can really only happen in the offseason.
    Trading Dozier isn't an A's move...the A's move under discussion was that the A's just emptied their farm by moving out the best SS prospect in all of baseball, plus a recent #1 draft pick, for 2 starting pitchers on soon-expiring contracts. The "A's move" under discussion here was for another contender (Jays? Orioles? in this case) acquiring an impact player at a major area of need and trading away a top prospect to do so. In this case, the Twins would be the Cubs.

  2. #42
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    I said it was an A's move. And I stand by that.......they don't wait until a player has 3 months of value left (or hold them and not deal them at all). They also deal really good players for more players, like, they move very good players that their team needs. I do agree, they might wait 2 more years or so.....Basically, they are willing to give up great players (ml and mil) to get other great players. We can quibble over doing it now or in two years makes it more A's like.
    Lighten up Francis....

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I said it was an A's move. And I stand by that.......they don't wait until a player has 3 months of value left (or hold them and not deal them at all). They also deal really good players for more players, like, they move very good players that their team needs. I do agree, they might wait 2 more years or so.....Basically, they are willing to give up great players (ml and mil) to get other great players. We can quibble over doing it now or in two years makes it more A's like.
    I, of course, have all along been referring only to the most recent A's move, and surmising the possibilities that teams like the Jays or Orioles would follow suit and trade top prospects in a blockbuster deal like the A's did with the Cubs. (As far as I can tell, Beane has never before moved the top SS prospect in all of baseball along with his recent #1 draft pick for such a short-term gain- including one player with only "3 months of value left").

  4. #44
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    Ya, I was referring to their willingness to move veterans still under control for more than a year (especially pitchers). His most recent move is a new one for him, I think though I'm not sure. There is an insider article about how the A's have never tanked, and always tried to win, and never had an early draft pick in this string of success (and not lost 90 games since the 70s).
    Lighten up Francis....

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I said it was an A's move. And I stand by that.......they don't wait until a player has 3 months of value left (or hold them and not deal them at all). They also deal really good players for more players, like, they move very good players that their team needs. I do agree, they might wait 2 more years or so.....Basically, they are willing to give up great players (ml and mil) to get other great players. We can quibble over doing it now or in two years makes it more A's like.
    The A's trade prospects for established players, and they trade players near free agency (usually two years away) to reload their system and acquire replacements. Trading Dozier at this time doesn't fit either of these categories.

    Two years of peak control at low cost amounts to more than a "quibble" in my mind, but you are free to interpret as you will.
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  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Ya, I was referring to their willingness to move veterans still under control for more than a year (especially pitchers). His most recent move is a new one for him, I think though I'm not sure. There is an insider article about how the A's have never tanked, and always tried to win, and never had an early draft pick in this string of success (and not lost 90 games since the 70s).
    It is a new move to trade a prospect that highly rated, but over the past several years he has traded decent prospects for decent mlb players.

    I think Beane was quoted as saying something to the effect that he had trouble acquiring prospects so he determined prospects were overvalued, so trading them for established mlbers was his new "moneyball".
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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I, of course, have all along been referring only to the most recent A's move, and surmising the possibilities that teams like the Jays or Orioles would follow suit and trade top prospects in a blockbuster deal like the A's did with the Cubs. (As far as I can tell, Beane has never before moved the top SS prospect in all of baseball along with his recent #1 draft pick for such a short-term gain- including one player with only "3 months of value left").
    I'm sure the O's and Jays would love to get Dozier, but I think you are undervaluing him with these types of proposals. I'm not sure either team has a prospect only package they could offer right now that would be enough. Trading Dozier would require a mlb player and no team is going to do that at the deadline.
    Papers...business papers.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Be very careful with this line of reasoning -- it basically nullifies all fan debate, which is why we're all here. We all know the Twins actions, and we all know the Twins actions are not always perfect. The interesting points are the "how" and "why" behind those.



    It's precisely because the 2014 Twins are on their way to 74 wins, and we still have Correia, Pino, Johnson etc. as interesting alternatives/backups, that I'd like to see Meyer and May get some experience this year:
    - better to adjust to the league in a lost season than next year's hopefully better season (think Gibson 2013)
    - better to inform our rotation needs this winter -- do we need to bring back Correia or a similar veteran starter for 2015? should we target a higher-upside arm in trade/FA or may we already have some?
    - also we will need 40-man spots this winter, and while it's good to sort through Pino, Johnson, etc. now, we also should know how many of these AAAA swingmen types we really need going into 2015. If Meyer and May can show us now whether they can legitimately win rotation spots in spring training next year, we can afford fewer AAAA swingmen on the 40-man

    This is where Burton/Guerrier are questionable roster choices right now (also Swarzak/Deduno) -- they are collecting innings in a lost season when odds are low that either is worth much in trade, and they are taking spots where Johnson, Pino, and Darnell could audition for their 40-man futures while Meyer and May get acclimated to future rotation roles.
    I hardly think this line of reasoning has any chance to nullify debates with any of us.
    We often nullify the notion that there's some reasoned answer we haven't been exposed to from the Twins. That's my point. The Twins blunder at times, like all other teams, and we as fans are often wrong too.

    I'm with you on wanting to see a Gibson-like intro to MLB for both Meyer and May, although I don't think it's the only way to skin the cat. I agree that it would be advisable to find roster room, at least for September call ups.

    You know, at the end of each season, the Twins gather every important development staff member for a week to hash out this stuff about all this stuff, and I just don't grasp how these July 10th decisions about Johnson and Pino versus an injured May and a non-roster Meyer factor into them being more informed about those off-season decisions.

  9. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Be very careful with this line of reasoning -- it basically nullifies all fan debate, which is why we're all here. We all know the Twins actions, and we all know the Twins actions are not always perfect. The interesting points are the "how" and "why" behind those.



    It's precisely because the 2014 Twins are on their way to 74 wins, and we still have Correia, Pino, Johnson etc. as interesting alternatives/backups, that I'd like to see Meyer and May get some experience this year:
    - better to adjust to the league in a lost season than next year's hopefully better season (think Gibson 2013)
    - better to inform our rotation needs this winter -- do we need to bring back Correia or a similar veteran starter for 2015? should we target a higher-upside arm in trade/FA or may we already have some?
    - also we will need 40-man spots this winter, and while it's good to sort through Pino, Johnson, etc. now, we also should know how many of these AAAA swingmen types we really need going into 2015. If Meyer and May can show us now whether they can legitimately win rotation spots in spring training next year, we can afford fewer AAAA swingmen on the 40-man

    This is where Burton/Guerrier are questionable roster choices right now (also Swarzak/Deduno) -- they are collecting innings in a lost season when odds are low that either is worth much in trade, and they are taking spots where Johnson, Pino, and Darnell could audition for their 40-man futures while Meyer and May get acclimated to future rotation roles.
    Spycake is right. the Twins gave this group a chance and its become clear it isn't good enough to contend. The rest of this season should be sued to see what they have and how ready their players are for next year so the team can go into the offseason with an actual plan. They don't have to make major changes this week, but within the next three weeks the team needs to get Willingham, Guerrier and Correia traded, make a longer term decision on Suzuki, Duensing and Burton (the only choices are stay for a couple more years or go now; makes no sense to keep them just for this season) and reach closure with Morales so you know if you can keep him (best result) or trade him for value (not a bad result; again keeping him just for this year makes no sense). Once that's done, you have to start the parade of AAA and AA guys to see what you have while playing Arcia, Santana, Escobar, Coalbello and Parmalee (yes, even Colabello and Parmalee) as close to every day as possible so you know where you are for next year. I'd also start Deduno every 5th day if you can. It's time to have the tryouts now so you have a chance to fill in holes and maybe even compete next year.

  10. #50
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    "quibble" was a bad choice of words, sorry
    Lighten up Francis....

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    You know, at the end of each season, the Twins gather every important development staff member for a week to hash out this stuff about all this stuff, and I just don't grasp how these July 10th decisions about Johnson and Pino versus an injured May and a non-roster Meyer factor into them being more informed about those off-season decisions.
    It's not just the July 10th decision -- being more informed comes with more (or even some) MLB transition data on Meyer and May, which they can only accumulate after a promotion. Don't you think that end-of-season staff meeting could come to a more confident consensus with such data? Seems like every offseason decision becomes riskier without it (trusting Meyer/May too much vs too little).

    I will agree that today probably isn't the flashpoint, though. I think we had one flashpoint already in mid-June when the Twins chose Pino for a permanent rotation opening and tabbed May for the July 13th minor league exhibition game. I think we'll have another flashpoint next weekend after the all-star break and the whole rotation can be re-made anew.

    The final meaningful flashpoint could be the July 31st trade deadline, although there's already a permanent rotation spot open, and Florimon/Fryer still occupy 40-man roster spots, so I don't think the trade deadline is all that important in regards to Meyer/May promotions. (This could extend into the August waiver trade period too, although the later the promotion, the less data we get, and the data becomes less meaningful too as September rosters expand and the pitchers themselves get fatigued.)

  12. #52
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    Since we're talking trade deadline, I think I'll be as equally upset with this team if it does nothing as I was thrilled with them this offseason.

    Another dud of a deadline would be unacceptable for me this year.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    I'm sure the O's and Jays would love to get Dozier, but I think you are undervaluing him with these types of proposals. I'm not sure either team has a prospect only package they could offer right now that would be enough. Trading Dozier would require a mlb player and no team is going to do that at the deadline.
    A player like Dozier would demand a top 20 prospect in return. No question. He's 27 years old with four years of control and looks to be a 3 WAR player if healthy.

    That's a combined 12 WAR, probably more like 15 WAR if he keeps it up. That's a really valuable player, more valuable than Span due to length of control.

  14. #54
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    I'm 100% in favor of putting for sale signs on virtually every player for whom we have an adequate replacement or can acquire one cheaply. The trade deadline is the best opportunity to prey on a desperate team willing to overpay to fill a need. If the player doesn't fetch a decent return, don't sell. I'd always be a seller of surplus, if possible, at the deadline. I'd have a sign on every reliever, except Perkins. I'd quietly advertise Suzuki. For sure Hammer, Correia, and Morales. I'd see how teams view Dozier, Plouffe, Parmelee just in case a stupid offer is out there.

    I don't view the Meyer/May situations as relevant to all this other than the fact that they are in the longer-term plans and are part of the surplus that allows you to move pitching for value now.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Since we're talking trade deadline, I think I'll be as equally upset with this team if it does nothing as I was thrilled with them this offseason.

    Another dud of a deadline would be unacceptable for me this year.
    I'm in the same camp. The most glaring and damaging deficiency with the Twins is that it appears they have no philosophy and discipline in place regarding the disposition of moveable assets. They fail to sell when the opportunities ate there way too often. They get in binds a la Hunter and Santana, and those types of failures set a franchise back big time.

    Having said that, I'm tempering my optimism that, even if they DO move Hammer and Correia, for example, that the return will make me catch my breath.

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  17. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Having said that, I'm tempering my optimism that, even if they DO move Hammer and Correia, for example, that the return will make me catch my breath.
    Oh I completely agree, I won't be someone who bashes a Willingham trade because we "didn't get enough". Just the act of moving some of these guys that are done with this team in three months will be positive enough for me.

    Doing nothing with them? I'm not sure I have an adequate adjective for my emotions in that scenario.

  18. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Oh I completely agree, I won't be someone who bashes a Willingham trade because we "didn't get enough". Just the act of moving some of these guys that are done with this team in three months will be positive enough for me.

    Doing nothing with them? I'm not sure I have an adequate adjective for my emotions in that scenario.
    I can agree with that. Willingham and Correia are at that "take what you can get" stage.

    It doesn't mean you trade them today if no good offers exist but you trade them if the package is even somewhat reasonable. They're actually a hindrance to the roster down the stretch.

  19. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    A player like Dozier would demand a top 20 prospect in return. No question. He's 27 years old with four years of control and looks to be a 3 WAR player if healthy.

    That's a combined 12 WAR, probably more like 15 WAR if he keeps it up. That's a really valuable player, more valuable than Span due to length of control.
    I think he is even more valuable than one top 20 prospect. For thought experiment, I don't think I would be happy if they traded him for Bundy, or for a more recent example, if they traded him straight up for Russell (or probably even the entire package the Cubs just got).
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  20. #59
    This is also going out on a limb, but come August with the hopes that Nolasco has pitched a few good games, run him out on the waiver wire and let him go if anyone bites, then sit back and after trading a third of the roster away, think about how you can resspend $40 million dollars on some offense with Hughes and Gibson anchoring your bullpen and Pelfrey taking up a spot in 2015, leaving two solid openings for the guys who deserve a shot for the future, and not just placeholders like Deduno, Johnson and Pino. If you can rid yourself of Nolasco, you have money for 3-5 offensive free agents, if you need. it. No need to overpay Suzucki, by the way. The Twins got him for a bargain. They can find another catcher of equal value to alternate with Pinto or hold down the fort next year (A.J. perhaps). Or maybe the Twins and Mauer WILL agree on his value behind-the-plate, rather than elsewhere, after this season. Oh, another trading chip is NUNEZ...people looking for infield backup. I hate to thought of another 90-loss season, but the promise of a high draftpick when you are going nowhere overshadows the need to TRY and play .500 ball with a club that is overmatched at times.
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  21. #60
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Just a point of caution, but teams making more than 2 or 3 trades at the deadline is pretty rare. I'd imagine that a lot goes into this. I would expect some trades, and I think there are a number of candidates (Correia, Morales, Hammer, Suzuki, Duensing, Burton, and Guerrier come to mind), but I dont' think it's fair to get upset if most of these guys are still wearing a Twins uniform on August 1.

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