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Thread: Mid Season: Time to Examine 2015 Rotation

  1. #21
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    Clearly the best scenario now would be if May or Meyer come up in the second half and put no doubt in the front office's mind that they will be a member of this rotation come 2015. If both of them could do it, the Twins have a real nice problem on their hands trying to find rotation spots for everyone.

    For a couple of years the Tigers were rumored to be open to moving Rick Porcello, as he was once a highly thought of prospect who the team barely had room for in the rotation. They never pulled the trigger, but I'll bet the Twins have the same situation with Kyle Gibson if May, Meyer and Berrios are all options by some point in 2015.

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  3. #22
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    At some point you need to bring up your great prospects and pay them, otherwise, why have them? May and Meyer should be in the rotation next year. Hughes and Gibson also. Not sure I care which vet is the last one, assuming it is someone on the roster today.

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  5. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    I'll offer a dark horse addition this offseason - James Shields.

    Shields
    Hughes
    Nolasco
    Gibson
    Pelfrey/Meyer/May battle it out for the last spot.
    While I would love to see it, this guy is going to command huge money and I don't see us doing it. I think the Royals may give him a deal because they gave up Wil Myers for him. If Homer Bailey is worth 6/100, this looks like a 6-7 year deal in excess of $150M to me.

  6. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    While I would love to see it, this guy is going to command huge money and I don't see us doing it. I think the Royals may give him a deal because they gave up Wil Myers for him. If Homer Bailey is worth 6/100, this looks like a 6-7 year deal in excess of $150M to me.
    Well, he'll be 34 so he won't get that many years but he'll get too many. Not a great class of FA pitchers next year. Billingsly, Lester, Masterson, Scherzer ... meh. Brett Anderson would be interesting depending on his health, which is always a problem.

  7. #25
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    My thoughts are:
    Hughes (Lock)
    Gibson(Lock barring epic collapse)
    Nolasco(unfortunately likely a lock because of contract or he figures it out in the 2nd half)
    May(who I believe will be up in Minnesota before August)
    Meyer(he definitely is up in September assuming he doesn't hit his innings limit and shows he can get big league hitters out).

    This leaves Pelf as a swingman along the lines of Sam Deduno right now, where he can give a spot start or do long man duty.

    At least this is what I am hoping will occur. I don't believe that the Twins will sign another FA this season, they don't have the spots currently for some of the prospects, why add another FA in the offseason to further clog the rotation? Unless you are going to sign David Price.

  8. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    We need to buy Pelfrey a nice cabin and have a long talk about the beauty of retirement.
    Big time. Pelfrey in the rotation next year makes absolutely no sense to me. He will have one year left. He has been horrible and hurt while here and the last time he was good was 2010, when luck played a role. He is not apart of the next contending team and he absolutely no shot at starting a playoff game.

    He actually makes less sense next year as Corriea does this year. But unfortunately I would not be surprised. A veteran, even a bad one helps Gardy sleep well at night.

  9. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Well, he'll be 34 so he won't get that many years but he'll get too many. Not a great class of FA pitchers next year. Billingsly, Lester, Masterson, Scherzer ... meh. Brett Anderson would be interesting depending on his health, which is always a problem.
    Good call. 4-95 or 5-120. Seems unlikely to me.

  10. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    While I would love to see it, this guy is going to command huge money and I don't see us doing it. I think the Royals may give him a deal because they gave up Wil Myers for him. If Homer Bailey is worth 6/100, this looks like a 6-7 year deal in excess of $150M to me.
    Though it didn't work out as planned, the Twins did give out the second biggest FA pitcher contract last year and they will certainly have plenty of money to work with along with a young and cheap offensive core emerging.

    I'm not predicting it, just suggesting a possible candidate. Shields fits the mold the Twins would like and competition might not be was heavy as one might expect. I suspect he would prefer signing with a team that has had more recent success.
    Papers...business papers.

  11. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    He actually makes less sense next year as Corriea does this year. But unfortunately I would not be surprised. A veteran, even a bad one helps Gardy sleep well at night.
    This meme is really getting ridiculous. Gardy has had a bunch of young rotations and plays lots of young players in key situations. Cripes, down the stretch in 06, he was relying on Boof and Mijares probably more than he was on anyone else. He gave Baker 48 starts thru his age 25 season, Slowey got 54. Lohse 114. In 08, 139 starts were by players 26 and under. In 09, 150 by players 27 and under. And, except for the 32 starts he gave Panano in 10, every start was by someone 28 and under. He plays the guys the FO gives him.

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  13. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    I'm not predicting it, just suggesting a possible candidate. Shields fits the mold the Twins would like and competition might not be was heavy as one might expect. I suspect he would prefer signing with a team that has had more recent success.
    I agree that, in many ways, Shields seems like a Twins-type pitcher. Sorta like Pavano did. Durable, lots of innings, no BS type. But I don't think the Twins will win any bidding on him. And I was mistaken, he'll be 33 next year so someone will give him a few too many years.

  14. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Clearly the best scenario now would be if May or Meyer come up in the second half and put no doubt in the front office's mind that they will be a member of this rotation come 2015. If both of them could do it, the Twins have a real nice problem on their hands trying to find rotation spots for everyone.

    For a couple of years the Tigers were rumored to be open to moving Rick Porcello, as he was once a highly thought of prospect who the team barely had room for in the rotation. They never pulled the trigger, but I'll bet the Twins have the same situation with Kyle Gibson if May, Meyer and Berrios are all options by some point in 2015.
    Agreed. Until the oblique pull injury, May was next in line to be called up (after the Futures game). In fact I still think he gets the call in August pending how long it takes him to recover from that injury, which isn't serious by the way.

    Not so sure about Meyer though. Alex is under a strict innings limit this season and could be shutdown in late August. I just don't see the Twins calling him up this year given the limits and options in AAA (Johnson, Darnell and GilMartin).

    At this point with the season all but lost, I DO see the Twins possibly dumping Willingham and Correia for prospects which opens up another slot in the rotation. Given the Nolasco injury the rotation will see new faces soon.

    Hughes
    Gibson
    Pino / Deduno? (have not completely given up on Deduno yet)
    Darnell
    Johnson / May (when he returns from DL)


    Both Berrios and Meyer will be challenging for major league callups at some point next season, just my opinion.

  15. #32
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    Here's an interesting story in the making going on right now for a starter for next year. Pino was 1 out away from a quality start 2 starts ago when he gave up a hit and the 4th run. that out would have him with 3 quality starts out of 4 starts. something to build on.... Yes I know he is 2 out of 4 in quality starts but if he continues to show he belongs then..... we could have the next Bob Tewksbury on our hands.

  16. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    Here's an interesting story in the making going on right now for a starter for next year. Pino was 1 out away from a quality start 2 starts ago when he gave up a hit and the 4th run. that out would have him with 3 quality starts out of 4 starts. something to build on.... Yes I know he is 2 out of 4 in quality starts but if he continues to show he belongs then..... we could have the next Bob Tewksbury on our hands.
    How soon we forget that PJ Walters started his Twins career with 4 straight quality starts (including a CG).

    This is the kind of thinking that got us into rotation trouble in 2012-2013. Pino should not be part of 2015 rotation planning at all, except on the fringes as potential depth out of AAA or the pen.

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  18. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    This meme is really getting ridiculous. Gardy has had a bunch of young rotations and plays lots of young players in key situations. Cripes, down the stretch in 06, he was relying on Boof and Mijares probably more than he was on anyone else. He gave Baker 48 starts thru his age 25 season, Slowey got 54. Lohse 114. In 08, 139 starts were by players 26 and under. In 09, 150 by players 27 and under. And, except for the 32 starts he gave Panano in 10, every start was by someone 28 and under. He plays the guys the FO gives him.
    I think this line of thought has a lot of merit.

    Gardy loves his veterans and it seems like our GM goes out each year and supplies him with at least one veteran pitcher. The best $5M he can spend on the free agent market. I am guessing they do this because they feel better with one veteran. Outside of Pavano and one year of Correia, this strategy does not appear to make sense and in almost every case a rookie could put up similar numbers.

    2007 - Ramon Ortiz 5.14 ERA and Sidney Ponson 6.03 ERA. I don't think either finished the year here

    2008 - Livan Hernandez - 5.48 ERA here, did not finish the year.

    2009 - RA Dickey 4.62 ERA

    2010 and 2011 - Carl Pavano 3.75 ERA and 4.30 ERA

    2012 - Jason Marquis 8.47 ERA, did not finish the year

    2013 and 2014 - Mike Pelfrey (5.19 and 7.99) and Kevin Correia (4.18 ERA and 4.79 ERA)

    It appears to me it is not out of the question that Pelfrey starts out next year in the rotation, which would not be based on talent or upside. If Nolsaso needs TJ or is battling another major injury, it would seem more likely in my opinion that Pelfrey starts out the year here and then is DFA'd after management gets sick of him

  19. #35
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    Pelfrey seems like he should be in the bullpen next year, to me, assuming he's even healthy. Before he was signed we had Hughes, Nolasco, and Correia guaranteed in the rotation, needing to fill two spots with a choice of Deduno (decent numbers, inability to pitch deep into games due to high pitch counts), Diamond (pretty bad in 2013), Worley (awful in 2013), Gibson (decent AAA, terrible MLB), May (mediocre in AA, hadn't even pitched at AAA), Meyer (hadn't pitched above AA, missed much of 2013 with shoulder injury) and Kris Johnson (all of 4 games and 1 start in MLB previous). Not hard to see why he felt the need to find another pitcher even if most of us feel Pelfrey for 2 years was the wrong answer.

    Going into next season we should theoretically have Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson guaranteed, so again needing to fill 2 spots, but with options from May and Meyer (who hopefully get their callup this year so that there actually aren't even openings next year), Logan Darnell and Kris Johnson (who both look adequate with slight hopes for a bit better), Deduno and Pino (not exciting but capable of starting games with a modicum of competence) and maybe Gilmartin as a wildcard, and maybe even Berrios looking like a midseason possibility. Pelfrey doesn't serve any purpose anymore because the options to fill those last rotation spots look better. Put him in the bullpen where he can throw his hittable fastball a little bit faster and not stretch a 3 hour game into a 3.5 hour game.

    So naturally he'll be in the rotation next year, of course.

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  21. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think this line of thought has a lot of merit.

    Gardy loves his veterans and it seems like our GM goes out each year and supplies him with at least one veteran pitcher. The best $5M he can spend on the free agent market. I am guessing they do this because they feel better with one veteran. Outside of Pavano and one year of Correia, this strategy does not appear to make sense and in almost every case a rookie could put up similar numbers.

    2007 - Ramon Ortiz 5.14 ERA and Sidney Ponson 6.03 ERA. I don't think either finished the year here

    2008 - Livan Hernandez - 5.48 ERA here, did not finish the year.

    2009 - RA Dickey 4.62 ERA

    2010 and 2011 - Carl Pavano 3.75 ERA and 4.30 ERA

    2012 - Jason Marquis 8.47 ERA, did not finish the year

    2013 and 2014 - Mike Pelfrey (5.19 and 7.99) and Kevin Correia (4.18 ERA and 4.79 ERA)

    It appears to me it is not out of the question that Pelfrey starts out next year in the rotation, which would not be based on talent or upside. If Nolsaso needs TJ or is battling another major injury, it would seem more likely in my opinion that Pelfrey starts out the year here and then is DFA'd after management gets sick of him
    I find it hard to go from Ramon Ortiz got 10 starts = Gardy loves veteran pitchers. The reality of baseball rotations means that every season you're probably going to have 10 or more guys make a start. They had 8 players last year and 9 the year before that make at least 10 starts each season. So to get that depth there is always going to be some old vet to be got for a million or two. But when 70% of your starts are coming from 27 and younger home grown pitchers, it's tough to say that Gardy is giving starts to old vets.

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  23. #37
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    I don't see any more FA pitcher signings. The only way the Twins add a veteran starter is by trading one of our projected 2015 starters -- there is already going to be a log jam. For example, Berrios is the real deal, and if he burns up AAA like he's been doing in the lower minors, we will all be clamoring for him to get promoted next summer. For another example, Pelfrey was once a really good pitcher, and might win a starting job out of spring training.

  24. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I find it hard to go from Ramon Ortiz got 10 starts = Gardy loves veteran pitchers. The reality of baseball rotations means that every season you're probably going to have 10 or more guys make a start. They had 8 players last year and 9 the year before that make at least 10 starts each season. So to get that depth there is always going to be some old vet to be got for a million or two. But when 70% of your starts are coming from 27 and younger home grown pitchers, it's tough to say that Gardy is giving starts to old vets.
    My point is this, we start out every season with at least one spot in the rotation set aside for a veteran starting pitcher. Historically signs for $3-$5M a year, i.e. not a good one. The fact that a majority of the starts end up going to young pitchers is proving my point, that in almost every case the 3-5M is wasted and we would have been better off not signing the guy.

    I would not be shocked if Pelfrey starts out 2015 on scholarship, just like he started 2013 and 2014 on scholarship because it makes the FO and Gardy more comfortable, not because he is one of the best 5 pitchers. I would be shocked if he was on the team by the end of the year. The odds of this happening increases if Nolasco needs TJ, not because Peflrey is then a top 5 pitcher, because we have fewer vets around.

    I would go out on a limb as well and say it is a generally accepted thought on these boards that Gardy favors veterans and it is not limited to just Ramon Ortiz.

  25. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I would go out on a limb as well and say it is a generally accepted thought on these boards that Gardy favors veterans and it is not limited to just Ramon Ortiz.
    Maybe, but it doesn't it mean it's correct. My guess is that a bunch of people on these boards think Gardy didn't like Slowey b/c he "hates smart people". A look at most of his rosters show that he has often played younger players - in key roles - than is believed.

    The fact that the team might give a spot to a vet out of ST instead of a young guy with options isn't surprising or that unusual. It happens all around baseball. If you end up needing 10 starters, you aren't going to be able to stash a vet in the minors.

  26. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Maybe, but it doesn't it mean it's correct. My guess is that a bunch of people on these boards think Gardy didn't like Slowey b/c he "hates smart people". A look at most of his rosters show that he has often played younger players - in key roles - than is believed.

    The fact that the team might give a spot to a vet out of ST instead of a young guy with options isn't surprising or that unusual. It happens all around baseball. If you end up needing 10 starters, you aren't going to be able to stash a vet in the minors.
    I buy into the Gardy favoring veterans line of thought. 1-2 veteran pitchers without much talent per year. The likes of Guerrier, Kubel, and Bartlett to name a few just this year.

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