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Thread: Trade Likelyhoods

  1. #21
    If the Twins decide to be sellers in the next couple weeks, I would hope Terry Ryan would keep an open mind when other teams call. In my mind, you can put the trade pieces in 4 groups.

    Group A--Not under contract in 2015, Some Value, Most Likely to be Traded
    1. Morales: If he starts to hit, he would have the most value to a team with playoff aspirations. While he's struggled since joining the Twins, he has a history of being a solid major league hitter. Money could scare off a few teams, but most playoff teams won't be concerned if they think he's the missing piece. His lack of a position on defense eliminates a few teams as well. I just don't see him having a place on the Twins roster in the future. I have a hard time believing that Scott Boras won't be pushing hard to get him a multi-year deal after the fiasco this off-season and I don't see the Twins being willing to lock him up to DH with guys like Arcia, Sano, Pinto, and Vargas coming up. If I were Terry Ryan, I would push hard to trade him for mid-level prospects.

    2. Suzuki: I see him having the 2nd most value to other teams. He has been great for the Twins, but he's really only a fit for teams that have a need at catcher which limits potential fits. Gardenhire seems to love him, so I think the Twins value him as much as anyone else which may make an extension more likely. If I were Terry Ryan, I'd gauge interest in Suzuki and trade him if I felt the return was adequate and hope that we could possibly resign him in the off-season.

    3. Willingham: In my mind, he has the 3rd most value. His bat could play on a few playoff teams as a platoon player that plays some OF, DH, and a big bat off the bench. I don't think the return would be anything special, maybe an a class A prospect or two. I don't see him having a ton of value to the Twins, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him sign a 1-year deal with the Twins. If I were Terry Ryan, I'd try to trade him, but only if I'm getting someone of value. If not, I keep him as a decent bat and discuss a 1-year deal in the off-season.

    Group B: Not under contract in 2015, Little to No Value, More likely released than traded

    1. Correia: He would have to pitch much better to have any value as a #5 starter on a playoff team.

    2. Guerrier: Guys like him are a dime a dozen and can be picked up off the waiver wire.

    Group C--Under control beyond 2014, Little Value, May not have a place on 2015 roster

    1. Burton: I really doubt the Twins would pay him $3.6 million for 2015, so it looks like a $200,000 buyout in the off season. I doubt he has any value on trade market. I would guess he finishes out the season and is bought out.

    2. Duensing: Has some value, but Twins probably don't want to pay him close to $3 million through arbitration in 2015. May bring back a low-level prospect and that trade should be made if the Twins don't see him being part of the 2015 team.

    3. Pelfrey: What was Terry Ryan thinking?

    Group D: Under team control for a few years, Lots of value, Very, very unlikely to be traded

    1. Dozier: Dozier is a very good 2B that has an above average bat, speed, and solid defense. The return would have to be huge since the Twins have him under control for a few years.
    Potential fits: Orioles, Yankees, Giants

    2. Perkins: An above average closer always has value to playoff teams and being left handed won't hurt either. With a reasonable salary (for a closer) over the next 3 years I doubt the Twins are eager to trade him, but they should listen if someone wants to blow them out of the water.
    Potential fits: Orioles, Indians, Tigers, Angels, Pirates, Giants

    3. Plouffe: Not as valuable as the other two, but being a 3rd baseman could make him intriguing to a few teams with a need. Since he is under control for 3 years, I think the Twins would need to get a prospect that is close to major league ready.
    Potential fits: Royals, Angels, Yankees

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Nelson Cruz 2013: .833 OPS, 2.2 WAR
    Kendrys Morales 2013: .785 OPS, 2.8 WAR
    Carlos Beltran 2013: .830 OPS, 2.4 WAR
    Hammer 2014: .841 OPS, 1.0 WAR

    At this rate, it would be a mistake not to offer Hammer a QO

    Your comparisons are interesting. Clearly Cruz and Morales should have accepted the QO, so that would tell me that the teams probably overvalued them and/or wanted the draft pick compensation believing they'd decline the offers. Beltran did have a 2.4 WAR in 2013, but also had a 3.6 WAR in 2012, had been healthy, and found a team (Yankees) with money to spend and a big desire to win. Unless Willingham hits 20 home runs in the 2nd half, there is no way on earth that the Twins make him a QO. Looking at last year's free agent outfielders, here would be the most similar players in my mind (they don't all bring similar skills, but they're in their 30s and are borderline starters with some injury issues) and what they signed for.

    Name Age Contract
    Marlon Byrd 36 2yrs/$16 million
    Nate McLouth 32 2yrs/$10.75
    Michael Morse 32 1yr/$6
    David Murphy 32 2yrs/$12

    If the Twins value bringing Willingham back (which I think they may), I would guess a 1 year deal in the 6-8 million dollar range to DH and play some outfield. I really can't see a team giving him more than 2 years or more than $8 million annually.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    You want to pay Josh Willingham at 36 years old 15M?

    Attachment 8096

    There is such a thing as a "bad 1-year contract"!

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    They can't. He would have had to have been on the roster day 1 for this to happen.
    Forgot about that. He's as good as gone, as is Willingham. I'd like to trade the rest, except Suzuki, but I doubt there are any takers.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I think that what the Twins will do and what they should do might be two different things.

    What they should do is simple:

    a. sell high (Group A)
    b. buy low
    c. try to get something from free agents to be whose contracts you will not renew (Group B).

    Sell high group (Group A):

    Perkins, Dozier, Suzuki, Fien, Thielbar, D. Santana (maybe even Parmelee.)


    Get some value group (Group B) :

    Willingham, Morales, (these 2 could be on group A as well, if they turn it around fast) Correia, Burton, Guerrier. If you do not think that the Twins can get any moving parts, remember the trades the Twins did for Guardado, Randy Flores, Brian Fuentes. Someone got something out of nothing (re: current relievers in this list)


    Pretty simple as far as I am concerned.

    What they will do is a different story.
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  6. #26
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Perk, Dozier, Santana, and (maybe even Parmelee) are all a part of the future. Why on earth would they sell on them? I could see Perk simply b/c relievers tend to collapse abruptly, but the rest are young and cost controlled for quite some time.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Perk, Dozier, Santana, and (maybe even Parmelee) are all a part of the future. Why on earth would they sell on them? I could see Perk simply b/c relievers tend to collapse abruptly, but the rest are young and cost controlled for quite some time.
    Because all are likely at peak value. Do what the Rays do. You cannot sell players with low value (or give them away for nothing) and expect to compete just using the draft after 4 seasons of mess. A 90+ loss team does not need Perkins. Perkins is 31+ & starting his declining phase. I doubt that Santana is anything more than a UT type of player and the Twins have many better SSs in the pipeline, starting with the gentleman who got a cup of water last week. Dozier is a good player on top of his value. He might look like a star compared to this mess of characters, but he is not. .234 batting average and about .180 IsoP. Remember Ploufe a couple seasons ago? If one can get a high return for Dozier, it is a no brainer, as far as I am concerned.

    Got to sell high and cannot have untouchables in a 99+96+96+??? Team.
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  9. #28
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    Unless they somehow get back to .500 before 7/31, Willingham and Morales should absolutely be traded. So should Corriea and Burton if they have any value. Suzuki should either be traded or signed to an extension, I strongly prefer trading him. He'll never hit this well again, and Pinto is not nearly as raw as he's being portrayed.

    As for Plouffe/Duensing, neither is a FA and both have value to the 2015 Twins. Further, neither will bring much in return. I'd keep both, Plouffe for sure.

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  11. #29
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    You want to pay Josh Willingham at 36 years old 15M?

    Attachment 8096
    No one wants to Kendrys Morales, and Hammer took much less than that per year the first time.
    "If I knew the world would end tomorrow, I would still plant a tree today."

  12. #30
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Nelson Cruz 2013: .833 OPS, 2.2 WAR
    Kendrys Morales 2013: .785 OPS, 2.8 WAR
    Carlos Beltran 2013: .830 OPS, 2.4 WAR
    Hammer 2014: .841 OPS, 1.0 WAR

    At this rate, it would be a mistake not to offer Hammer a QO
    So the answer is "yes I want to give Willingham 15M for 2015"

    Because there is literally zero chance he doesnt take that. I cant think of anything more irrational to do with him next year
    Holy cow.

  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Because all are likely at peak value. Do what the Rays do. You cannot sell players with low value (or give them away for nothing) and expect to compete just using the draft after 4 seasons of mess. A 90+ loss team does not need Perkins. Perkins is 31+ & starting his declining phase. I doubt that Santana is anything more than a UT type of player and the Twins have many better SSs in the pipeline, starting with the gentleman who got a cup of water last week. Dozier is a good player on top of his value. He might look like a star compared to this mess of characters, but he is not. .234 batting average and about .180 IsoP. Remember Ploufe a couple seasons ago? If one can get a high return for Dozier, it is a no brainer, as far as I am concerned.

    Got to sell high and cannot have untouchables in a 99+96+96+??? Team.
    You don't dig out from 90 losses by trading your best young players for prospects you hope might be as good one day. We are not the Rays. The Rays = the Twins in the Metrodome. We don't need to trade every young player before they get 'expensive' to compete. Trade guys who are pending FA's, sure. But not Dozier, Santana, Hughes, etc.

    I can see the argument for trading Perkins. But he just signed an extension with a home town discount. They're not trading him right now. I think he may even have gotten a no-trade for at last the first couple years of the deal.

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  15. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I think the Twins are in a strong position with Hammer. If he stays healthy, he's a QO candidate and I for one would hope he accepts. He is by far the most productive outfielder in the system, and maybe the most productive batter period.

    If they can get a haul in trade, great. A comp round pick would be a good outcome too. So they should be very picky about what sort of offers they are willing to entertain IMO.
    Why even risk paying him $15M in a QO? He will be 36, he has had injury concerns the last two seasons, his defense will just keep dwindling and if they were ever going to get anything for him in a trade, the time is now.

    This is the type of player you deal at the deadline if you are a team like the Twins.

  16. #33
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    I try to keep Suzuki. First one's out to pasture are Plouffe and Nolasco on my list.

  17. #34
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    You don't dig out from 90 losses by trading your best young players for prospects you hope might be as good one day. We are not the Rays. The Rays = the Twins in the Metrodome. We don't need to trade every young player before they get 'expensive' to compete. Trade guys who are pending FA's, sure. But not Dozier, Santana, Hughes, etc.

    I can see the argument for trading Perkins. But he just signed an extension with a home town discount. They're not trading him right now. I think he may even have gotten a no-trade for at last the first couple years of the deal.
    Yeah, I could kind of see Perkins, but that ship sailed last year. With what's coming up through the minors, there's no way Dozier, Santana, and Parmelee (not that he'd net much right now) shoudl be traded. They are all young and under team control for some time. They will pair nicely with Meyer, May, Hughes, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Pinto, and Mauer.

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  19. #35
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    To the poster saying sell high on a bunch of players, what does that say to the fans and the organization? I think selling Suzuki would be smart as he hasn't proven to be that great over the years. Dozier has been a good player for over a year and isn't expensive. As for the relievers sure but to trade a player like Dozier with no easy replacement makes no sense. Especially since prospects are a crapshoot

  20. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    The only 'hiccup' I can see with trading or cleaning house...is will it deter players from signing here going forward?

    I can Willingham or Morales being traded quite easily. Not sure about Suzuki...kinda have a feeling he may want to stay and the Twins may feel the same.

    I'm fine with listening to any offers on anyone besides Dozier and Hughes.
    I don't see that as being a problem. Players in their final contract year or on a one-year contract expect to be traded and like being in a pennant race. They are playing for the next contract. If you traded Nolasco, let's say, that might be a bigger issue.
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  21. #37
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Even if the Twins fall off a cliff, and for the record, I maintain we are a possible .500 team with the potential for a few wins above, not a real playoff contender, I'm not sure we're a selling team per se'.

    I seriously doubt Suzuki goes anywhere, and it has little to do with his resurgent bat, that will almost assuredly regress next season. And it's not because of his arm or the still early and debatable stat of framing pitches, but rather his experience handling a staff, and the way he has gained the confidence of our staff and coaches. As he has done throughout his career, he has proven the most important quality of being a C, and this is simply the ability to handle a staff. Guys like throwing to him. Even when he hasn't hit well, he's a far better hitter than the likes of a Butera. And he's always made decent contact if nothing else. Despite speculation regarding Pintos future, other than stating he needs some work, nobody with the Twins has ever said anything negative about the kid. They gave him a long audition last season, and while it would have been nice to see him get more starts behind the plate when he was up earlier, the Twins though enough of him to take him north out of ST. I don't know who what the starting splits will be next season, but we need 2 catchers regardless. And I don't know that there's a better option than Suzuki available next off season.

    I think the Twins have some very good, and some solid/decent C prospects in the minors, but they are all AA and below. I'm one of those who is a Herrman supporter, as a solid and versatile backup, but don't think he's ready just yet. Suzuki will end up re-signing, and it won't cost much.

    Regardless of how he finishes, this will turn out to be a bit of a lost season for Morales. That in itself may bode well for a possible re-signing by the Twins, assuming he enjoys his time with our favorite team and Target field. He's had a few injuries here and there, but is also only 31, 32 June of next year, and has a career slash of: .277/.329/.473/.802. He switch hits, and can be a consistent 30 doubles and 20 HR guy with 500 AB's. There is no question that Vargas has the potential to be as good or better, but he's also young, still in AA as of now, and a veteran of Morales' ability hitting somewhere in the heart of our lineup would be a real asset until Vargas proves to be ready. Now, Vargas May have some trade value, especially if he heats up. And the Twins could still sign him in the off season if they wish following said trade. But if he enjoys it here, and both parties are interested in continuing the relationship, you have to look at 2 important factors: 1) what kind of return can the Twins really receive if traded? 2) and once you answer point #1, are they better served having his production the rest of this season, and would that also make re-signing him easier?

    Some of the points made in regard to Morales also applies to Willingham. I don't know that the Twins are interested in bringing him back for 2015. In fact, I believe there may be better options that would serve us better. A strong second half to the season for Hammer vs what might be available next off season has to be correlated, along with what, if anything more than a 6 pack and a bag of balls Hammer might bring in trade this year. To be clear, I do not advocate bringing Willingham back for 2015. But if offers for him are generally worthless, I'd be in favor of letting him play the year out, contribute, and then let him walk, knowing we got all out of him we can, OR, if we strike out on anyone and everyone else to play LF next season, I suppose he could be a fall back option on a 1 year deal. But again, I think it's time to replace him. The question is, is it worth replacing him in July or next off season?

    Unless Burton continues what he's done the last couple of weeks, and even better, he just isn't going to have any real trade value IMO, unless someone believes and is desperate. I know there are those who don't like Duensing, but by himself, as opposed to part of a package, he doesn't offer enough to trade straight up, unless like Burton, you have a team who believes and is desperate. Now, I like Duensing, and think he's proven to be a pretty solid LH in the pen that a lot of teams would love to enjoy in their pen. But by himself, he's just not dominate or special enough to bring much return solely.

    Which leaves Correia as the one trade option that might actually bring something in return. Personally, after his performance last season, (peripherals and not W-L), I thought his best value was during ST when it seemed SP's were dropping like flies. SP is always a premium need, and it is almost assured that someone in either league will be looking for one more starter to fill up their rotation for the last couple of months of the season. And truthfully, despite mediocre ability overall, Correia is pitching quite well after a slow start, and a team looking for needed depth, or injury replacement, might be enticed by a solid veteran. I doubt the return would be high, but if the Twins lower their expectations, and accept a talented player in A ball, they might actually gain a decent prospect in a deal.

    To me, that's it, that's the reality of us as traders at the deadline. One decent trade option, one potentially decent option in Morales that we might be better keeping, and one "meh" option in Willingham.

  22. #38
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    Twins need to look and say we will not be competitive until 2017, therefore any players who will not be key contributors by 2017 should be traded if the deal is correct. Dozier is the one player that will bring a big return, Perkins could bring a big haul, but relievers tend not to. Plouffe should be traded if the return is good. Any of the rest of the players are more clear space salary dumps and am more in favor of trading the pitchers rather than the player mentioned above.

  23. #39
    I'd be happy trading any player who's not part of the future. As much as I like Suzuki, Pinto is the future. His defense will be fine. He just needed to catch more than once or twice a week. Suzuki could really fetch some talent in a trade. They'd be crazy not to atleast explore this option.

    I think Morales is great. In my perfect world they trade Mauer and re-sign Morales to play 1st base, and Vargas can take over at DH. Not that I don't like Mauer, he's just not giving them anywhere near $23 million of production.
    Last edited by Marta Shearing; 07-04-2014 at 10:18 PM.

  24. #40
    2016:
    CF Buxton
    2B Dozier
    3B Sano
    RF Arcia
    1B Morales
    DH Vargas
    C Pinto
    LF Rosario
    SS Polanco or Santana


    Meyer
    May
    Berrios
    Gibson
    Hughes or Nolasco

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