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Thread: No one wants to be next year's Kendrys Morales (or Drew)

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    My point, nor I think Cameron's, was to cast judgment on Morales. But as little as 84 at bats are, they have added weight when Morales, if healthy, may only have an additional 300; his season is already one-forth over. Morales', and Drew's, value heading into the next offseason will be depreciated as a result. I think this may work in the Twins favor, as they may be able to resign him cheaply (though that would block Vargas).

    In the 2014 case study, you have Drew, Morales, and Nelson Cruz. All turned down thinking 1/14 was not enough. Cruz bit the bullet and signed a 1 year $8M deal. He has played great this year, has 26 HR so far and will be handsomely rewarded next off-season.

    The two guys that sat out have seen their stock plummet.

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  3. #22
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    The two guys that sat out have seen their stock plummet.
    Right. I think it's interesting to note that both Drew and Morales are getting paid more for their shorten seasons than Cruz is for his entire one. Cruz may have taken a short term loss, but he'll likely receive a much more significant return.

    What's so surprising is that Boras not only mismanaged the market he undervalued the worth of team's offseason programs for players including spring training; seemingly he believed his own facilities and people could replace such programs.

  4. #23
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    The problem is punishing teams (even bad ones) for trying to get better. The compensation part of the qualifying offer I see as a positive. It allows for teams to retain star players without the future commitment, and be compensated if they leave. That the QO was set too high (at 14) was also a problem, and I wonder if we'll see that number go down this year.
    The problem is that all the risk lies with the player. I'd argue that Morales could have gotten a multi year deal at a similar amount (Drew as well for that matter) had there been no draft pick compensation tied to it. Instead, two guys who were above average players ended up not playing because of this rule. Making it lower isn't going to make the problem better, it makes it worse putting more players into this situation. I don't see it happening.

    I think compensation for smaller market teams with FAs leave is a good thing, but it is not good for baseball when players when good players are unemployed.

  5. #24
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    This is totally off the cuff, and I haven't put strategic thought into it, but what about two levels of QO?

    A) 15mil (or whatever number gets calculated) - Costs the new team it's 1st round pick.... with the same top 10 exception as now

    B) 7.5 mil (half) - Old team gets a sandwich pick, but new team gives up nothing.

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  7. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    What's so surprising is that Boras not only mismanaged the market he undervalued the worth of team's offseason programs for players including spring training; seemingly he believed his own facilities and people could replace such programs.
    I am sure all the GM's and front office folks are pretty sad that Scott's image has taken a hit this year.

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  9. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
    This is totally off the cuff, and I haven't put strategic thought into it, but what about two levels of QO?

    A) 15mil (or whatever number gets calculated) - Costs the new team it's 1st round pick.... with the same top 10 exception as now

    B) 7.5 mil (half) - Old team gets a sandwich pick, but new team gives up nothing.
    That would be more interesting. I think MLB will attempt to come up with a solution that does not hurt the player as much. The draft pick comp has killed guys like Lohse, Drew, etc. We can say Drew could have taken $15M, but the market probably had him at 3/30 or 4/40 or more without the pick attached.

  10. #27
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    It's the guys that are looking (hoping) for those 3/25 to 4/40 deals that the current system hurts the most. Having a mid-level QO would mostly help those players old teams, but not hurt the player at all.

    Think about Suzuki. For the sake of argument, lets say he keeps playing close-ish to his current high level. He probably be looking to cash in over the offseason with a 2/15 or 3/20 type deal.

    7.5 is a fair yearly salary and a Mid-QO it would behoove the Twins to make. If he accepts, great. If he turns it down, which he probably would, we probably get a sandwich pick out of it.

    It's those type of guys (old Type B) that teams used to get a little something for losing, that end up getting hurt in the new system.

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  12. #28
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Both Drew and Morales are represented by Scott Boras, and both players trained at a facility provided by Boras during the offseason and after the season began, with both unemployed because of their contractual asking prices.
    Cameron kinda brushes over the Boras factor. Maybe if he had lowered his sights just a little his clients could have signed before ST. As it is, all of the 13 QO-offered players, including the Boras clients, got at least as much guaranteed money as a QO (prorated in Boras' two cases).

  13. #29
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    The problem is that all the risk lies with the player. I'd argue that Morales could have gotten a multi year deal at a similar amount (Drew as well for that matter) had there been no draft pick compensation tied to it.
    The problem wasn't the compensation, per se, it was the forfeiture of a draft pick; there'd be nothing prohibitive (in signing such a player) about compensating the former team as long as the signing team gives up no draft-pick.

    I don't see lowering the qualifying offer as realistic either; but certainly the way the market played out last winter indicates it probably should be, if such a system is going to work.

    And I agree, the system isn't working if it leaves marketable, good players unemployed.
    Last edited by PseudoSABR; 07-03-2014 at 05:46 PM.

  14. #30
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    The simple answer from the player's perspective is to accept the QO. Both Drew and Morales could have had one yr, $14M contracts this year. They (and their agent) misjudged, and ended up with one year deals for less money. That's on them.

    There is nothing wrong with the system in place. Teams have to consider making a QO, players have to judge accepting one. That one or the other misjudges once in a while doesn't mean the system is broken. In fact, it seems to me that is an indication the system is working as it is designed.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  16. #31
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I think Boras might be inclined to have his clients accept a QO next time. The agents always want the years and a QO gives only one year, but some times what is best might be the short contract.

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  18. #32
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Sometimes things have to go wrong before they right themselves.

    This offseason, teams will not offer QO because players will accept.

    But it's hard to deny that this CBA has some pretty gaping holes in it.

  19. #33
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    Norichika Aoki
    Emilio Bonifacio
    Melky Cabrera
    Nelson Cruz
    Michael Cuddyer
    Rajai Davis
    Chris Denorfia
    Jeff Francoeur
    Jonny Gomes
    Franklin Gutierrez
    Tony Gwynn Jr.
    Scott Hairston
    Torii Hunter
    Raul Ibanez
    Reed Johnson
    Darnell McDonald
    Mike Morse
    Colby Rasmus
    Nate Schierholtz
    Grady Sizemore
    Seth Smith
    Alfonso Soriano
    Ichiro Suzuki
    Ryan Sweeney
    Vernon Wells
    Josh Willingham
    Chris Young
    Delmon Young

    That is the list of FA outfielders coming up this winter. More if options are not exercised. If they were a good player their options are generally picked up. I think I wouldd rather have an outfield of Santana and the rest of the shortstops and sign Hardy.
    Respectfully, I'm going to disagree with you here. Now, you're right that there are some names on that list that don't thrill me either. But there are some names I like as say, 1 year stop gaps, in the right scenario, possibly for 2 or 1 with a workable option. For example; while his numbers are down this season, how about Hunter "coming home" for an encore and taking one of the corner spots to replace Willingham. He'd replace his RH bat, still has HR power and RBI potential. And I doubt salary demands would be large. Cuddyer could be a similar option, for the same reasons, though I'm not sure if Colorado will let him go, of if he'd want to leave at this point.

    And NOT picking up an option doesn't necessary mean a player is washed up or worthless, especially as the aforementioned stop-gap option. It might simply be the option year is too pricy to pick up, or the team in question may have budgetary concerns, or a top prospect ready to take over.

    It's certainly not about blocking young Twins prospects who may be part of a long and successful run with the rebuilt Twins. It's about fill-in options to keep the Twins viable, help the young kids up maintain a winning attitude and approach, and even supporting the pitching staff. We must be realistic, especially with some of the unfortunate events that have slowed some of the Twins young talent this season. Walker is at A ball, Vargas at AA for the moment, Sano rehabbing, Rosario getting back in to form, Buxton trying to get 100% and back on track. To pencil in any of these youngsters as key components for 2015, ready to go day 1, or May 1st, etc, is just not realistic.

  20. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Respectfully, I'm going to disagree with you here. Now, you're right that there are some names on that list that don't thrill me either. But there are some names I like as say, 1 year stop gaps, in the right scenario, possibly for 2 or 1 with a workable option. For example; while his numbers are down this season, how about Hunter "coming home" for an encore and taking one of the corner spots to replace Willingham. He'd replace his RH bat, still has HR power and RBI potential. And I doubt salary demands would be large. Cuddyer could be a similar option, for the same reasons, though I'm not sure if Colorado will let him go, of if he'd want to leave at this point.

    And NOT picking up an option doesn't necessary mean a player is washed up or worthless, especially as the aforementioned stop-gap option. It might simply be the option year is too pricy to pick up, or the team in question may have budgetary concerns, or a top prospect ready to take over.

    It's certainly not about blocking young Twins prospects who may be part of a long and successful run with the rebuilt Twins. It's about fill-in options to keep the Twins viable, help the young kids up maintain a winning attitude and approach, and even supporting the pitching staff. We must be realistic, especially with some of the unfortunate events that have slowed some of the Twins young talent this season. Walker is at A ball, Vargas at AA for the moment, Sano rehabbing, Rosario getting back in to form, Buxton trying to get 100% and back on track. To pencil in any of these youngsters as key components for 2015, ready to go day 1, or May 1st, etc, is just not realistic.
    It pains me to type this. The stringers at fangraphs have Parmelee as a better right fielder than Hunter this year. Hunter's power numbers are going down as well.

    Hunter is getting 14 million this year. With his career earnings and pride, I doubt he would be playing for less than 10m. I don't think he would come cheaply to a team that might be losing.

    It is rare that an above average free agent signs a one year contract. One year contracts for outfielders that switched teams the last 3 years looks like dumpster diving with Morse coming out as the only rose. Nelson Cruz is a special category that I don't think will happen again. Many of these players as a 4th outfielder option might be preferential to what the Twins have now. I wouldn't argue that one. The question is regarding looking for the starters for next year. In looking for someone to hold down an outfield position for a year I just don't think you will find much.
    Last edited by The Wise One; 07-04-2014 at 02:24 PM.

  21. #35
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    It pains me to type this. The stringers at fangraphs have Parmelee as a better right fielder than Hunter this year. Hunter's power numbers are going down as well.

    Hunter is getting 14 million this year. With his career earnings and pride, I doubt he would be playing for less than 10m. I don't think he would come cheaply to a team that might be losing.

    It is rare that an above average free agent signs a one year contract. One year contracts for outfielders that switched teams the last 3 years looks like dumpster diving with Morse coming out as the only rose. Nelson Cruz is a special category that I don't think will happen again. Many of these players as a 4th outfielder option might be preferential to what the Twins have now. I wouldn't argue that one. The question is regarding looking for the starters for next year. In looking for someone to hold down an outfield position for a year I just don't think you will find much.
    Oh Wise One, I do not disagree with a single point made here.

    But a few points:


    In regard to Hunter, while an option, and a favorite player of mine, I offer him as an example. Pride be damned, he's reaching the end of the line, and he knows it. And the last year of any contract is no indicator of true market value unless the player is in top form, and usually 30 or younger, or early 30's to be sure, as teams are paying for what's to come, and not what might be left in the tank. The Tigers didn't give Hunter the contract they gave him expecting a 14M all star player in 2014. It's the way contracts are simply positioned. You end up getting value, hopefully, the first couple seasons, and often overpay the last season or two. It's common practice and we all know this. No matter my love of Hunter, I'd rather have Cuddyer if available. But again, these are just examples.

    I also mentioned 2 year and 1 year with an option as other examples of potential signing contracts. The reality is, once you get past the big name FA's every year, there are always bargains to be had. Some are poor, some OK, and some steals. It's up to the FO of any team to try to make that determination. And also, every year, for various reasons, there are those veteran players who are available on 1 year make good contracts.

    The Twins have money to spend without blowing budget, and also shave nearly 12M just with Willingham and Correia alone being gone. I am certainly not opposed to the Twins spending big money on a big FA signing, but I doubt, for various reasons, that this will happen or prove prudent. And while I greatly value the depth of talent in our milb system, and feel we're a good year away from trading any top prospects for that final piece or two, I would not be opposed to a trade for a young or young-ish, productive corner OF. Logic and personal preference simply dictate to me to go the FA route on 1-2 year deals to supplement and bridge.

    And I believe and advocate we look at the best available FA options for a year or two to provide those options at CF, (where Rosario, and maybe even Santana and even Hicks might compete until Buxton is ready), and especially an OF corner where we need a productive and solid player until CF is settled, and another talented prospect, possibly even Plouffe, is ready to take over.

  22. #36
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    I fear a continuation of the "half-in, half-out" management philosophy. This inevitably leads to a mediocre season and the FO saying "all fixed", just allow the young players to mature (while pocketing huge amounts of cash).

  23. #37
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Hunter and Cuddy are both going to fall into the QO territory, both of whom would be wise to accept it if offered.

  24. #38
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Hunter and Cuddy are both going to fall into the QO territory, both of whom would be wise to accept it if offered.
    Hunter? The Tigers would be have to be completely nuts to give him a QO.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  25. #39
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    Hunter? The Tigers would be have to be completely nuts to give him a QO.
    Which is why he'd be wise to accept!

    In all seriousness, I doubt either Cuddy or Hunter gets a QO this winter.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  27. #40
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Which is why he'd be wise to accept!

    In all seriousness, I doubt either Cuddy or Hunter gets a QO this winter.
    And if you're right, the whole QO market suddenly shifts to sensibility, for a single off season.

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