07-02-2014, 02:36 PM #1
No one wants to be next year's Kendrys Morales (or Drew)
Dave Cameron (of fangraphs fame) explores just how poorly Morales and Drew have played and further its possible ramifications on free agency.
We all know how bad Morales has been, but Cameron really rubs it in:Things haven't gone much better for the other free agent who waited until midseason to sign; despite collecting three hits last night, Kendrys Morales is hitting just .238/.270/.333 since joining the Twins, and unlike Drew, he doesn't have any defensive value to fall back on. As strictly a designated hitter, Morales' entire value is tied up in how well he hits, and in 89 plate appearances in Minnesota, his .262 wOBA is lower than the career mark set by defensive specialists like Darwin Barney or Brendan Ryan.
But what I find interesting is Cameron's point about the impending market next winter, a winter the Twins should have money to spend.If a team makes a marginal free agent a qualifying offer this winter, $15 million and a guaranteed job might look a lot more enticing than being next year's Stephen Drew or Kendrys Morales.
Last edited by PseudoSABR; 07-06-2014 at 02:42 AM.
07-02-2014, 02:48 PM #2
I think teams are going to be much more wary about offering 1/15 mil deals to guys that they would prefer would "turn it down"
I think it balances out in the end."You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald
07-02-2014, 02:48 PM #3
This logic (that more players will accept a QO) could just as easily have the effect of teams not making as many QO to players.
Before, with so many of them turning them down, teams viewed it as an opportunity to pick up a draft pick for someone that might not have been in their future plans anyway.
Having less mid-tier FA tied to draft pick compensation could actually benefit the Twins, who have been reluctant (never) to give up a draft pick to sign a FA.
07-02-2014, 03:46 PM #4
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As far as the player is concerned it could get frustrating not being able to get a long term contract but you are probably making more year by year if you keep accepting the QO offer. This is a fun topic for the offseason.
07-02-2014, 03:58 PM #5
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How many people think that the Twins will be offering anybody a QO this offseason? I sure don't think so!
07-02-2014, 09:42 PM #6
Morales has had a whopping 84 at bats. Shouldn't we wait a little longer before a judgement is made on Morales?
07-02-2014, 10:39 PM #7
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Othr than lester, Shields and Scherzer, is there anyone without an option worth 15m/yr that is going to be a free agent?
07-02-2014, 10:44 PM #8
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Personally, if he enjoys his time with the Twins this season, I'd make signing Morales a high priority. I know not everyone agrees with this approach, but not every top prospect in the Twins system is going to be ready for a full time gig at the start of 2015. And we already have to sort out CF, at least in the short term, and probably LF as well. Forget that Morales has struggled so far. Not only is the sample size small, but he virtually came off the street and was plugged in the lineup. His career track history is of a solid hitter with legit power and RBI production. And he's not some mid-30 year old trying to hang on either.
Work with me here. Dozier hits in one of the top spots next year. The other spot could be Santana, or Escobar, or a decent, solid, fill-in ML CF option that they MUST sign for temp/and or 4th OF work, with Rosario being a possible option if he has a strong second half of the year this year. (That 50 game suspension continues to hurt and haunt) Mauer has finally been rescued from the body snatchers that held him the first months of this season to hit like he should be, before his recent injury. UGH! But the real Mauer hits 3rd in 2015. And let's say it begins to really click for Arcia, which it could just any day now, truth be told.
Look, I want Vargas to be our full time DH and backup 1B yesterday, just like everyone else. And I don't care that he's struggled the last week or so. There are always ebbs and flows to a season. But he's young, in AA, and even if promoted to Rochester for most of the second half of the season, and even if he rakes, are we comfortable he's ready for 500 ML AB's just like that?
And what about LF? Unless it's a cheap 1-year deal, Willingham is gone. So who plays LF and provides offense from that spot? Parmelee has been teasing us this year that the lightbulb might slowly coming on, a dimmer switch that someone keeps messing with. But at least we're seeing something. Rosario? Maybe. But he could also be in the running for a CF option. And for now, he's still in AA, behind due to his suspension, and even with a quick promotion to Rochester, and a couple really good months and outstanding ability, like Vargas, we're talking about a very young player with little AAA experience that we'd be counting on.
The Twins have the finances to sign that decent CF option to help out. And with guys like Willingham and Correia gone, they also have the finances to sign a quality corner OF to fill a spot in the middle of the lineup. With financial flexibility, and future trade possibilities, the Twins can afford to bring back Morales, sign that decent CF option, AND a vet corner OF without blocking the future for Buxton, Rosario, Vargas and Walker a bit further down the line.
This would give them a mix of veterans and youngsters to build a solid lineup to go along with a solid pitching staff, further fortified with a large group of young pitchers nearly ready to supplement and contribute, and still allow the young kids mentioned, and Sano, to work themselves one by one in to the lineup in 2015, and early 2016 at worse.
This user likes DocBauer's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:
07-02-2014, 11:01 PM #9
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Morales missed spring training. Hard to jump in at mid season
07-02-2014, 11:48 PM #10
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This month will tell the tale for Morales. He's got a history of being a fine hitter and run producer. If he shows those skills again, he'll likely make out all right in the free agency next year, although the market for bat-only mid-30s guys isn't that great.
I agree with Doc. If Morales shows he still has it, and is willing to stay, I say sign him up. The Twins have shown for the last several years that offensive holes develop and having a sure thing in the middle would stabilize the lineup long term.
07-03-2014, 12:35 AM #11
I think guys like Morales, Drew, Oswalt, have honestly lost touch with reality and their good fortune for being pro baseball players when they start turning down reasonable contract offers (reasonable, like, you know, multimillions of $$$ for a single summer) and then go into a season without a contract.
Speaking of Morales, he never really excited me. I'd trade him or let him walk. Give the at bats to young guys next year. So what if his numbers are down this year because he missed spring training or doesn't have many at bats yet. That's his fault alone, per article.
07-03-2014, 03:49 AM #12
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Tony Gwynn Jr.
That is the list of FA outfielders coming up this winter. More if options are not exercised. If they were a good player their options are generally picked up. I think I wouldd rather have an outfield of Santana and the rest of the shortstops and sign Hardy.
07-03-2014, 08:18 AM #13
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Not interested in signing a bunch of 35 year olds. It is time to move on. at some point, they need to bit the bullet and move on. I have zero interest in Willingham coming back, that is insane. He can't field at all. MAYBE as a DH, but then you don't sign Morales. At least Willingham has SOME positional ability.
For the OP....interesting points on both sides, does this make it more likely people take offers, and then less likely they are made? No idea. I do think it shows the value of the more certain present vs. the possibility of a better future (to a player making money).Lighten up Francis....
07-03-2014, 09:15 AM #14
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I'm guessing this gets adjusted in the next CBA. It isn't good for the players or baseball as a whole. It either gets done away with altogether, or there's going to be a way for players to sign by ST with a lesser compensation pick or a way to punish the team offering the QO to make them think twice about offering a QO. I'm not sure guys like Drew or Morales should have been offered one at all.
What I do think is that if a guy like Trout was in that position, no one would think twice about giving up the first rounder... They just need to find the balance.
07-03-2014, 12:50 PM #15
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07-03-2014, 01:04 PM #18
07-03-2014, 01:07 PM #19
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That is the key. Not working out or not having access to MLB facilities, trainers, or frankly maybe not having someone checking in on you has hurt these guys. It almost always happens. You see it in football when rookies or even veterans hold out and miss training camp. Whether it is guys taking the qualifying deal or taking less after they gauge the market is not what they thought, I think you see next to nobody sitting out for months on end. This has definitely been a what not to do lesson.
07-03-2014, 01:11 PM #20