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Thread: You wanted Trevor May? You can't have Trevor May...(yet)!

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Your metaphorical conclusion is devoid of any evidence or common sense to support it...and 18, count them, eighteen ?s doesn't make your case any stronger. May's prospect ranking is entirely irrelevant to the case being made...and if anything, it is a direct argument AGAINST having May in the Futures Game at all. All prospects, Betts as well, are a work in progress to some degree, it's what they potentially offer to the team in the short-run and long-run that counts. And there is but one way to find out if they can do so.

    Betts, right now is the best prospect to fill the need in Boston. Gonzalez, the best prospect to fill the need in St Louis. May, the best prospect to fill the need in Minnesota.
    If you want to start a pitcher based on best pitching prospect, the best pitching prospect in the organization would not be May. If you wanted to base it on who was pitching best in AAA, that would be debatable as to who was better. May did not stand out above all others.
    St Louis has 4 starters on the dl. Lucky for them it wasn't their top 4. It fills a need to call up Gonzales, but with no quality in AAA or AA for the season thus far. They had to try Gonzales. About the closest thing I could compare the situation in St Louis to Minnesota is in 2011 if they would have promoted Hendriks because he was pitching well in AA that year. They are similar in that they are soft tossing control pitchers. I don't think it was a good idea to call up Gonzales. His call up was based on a desperate need in an organization that found their depth in major league starting pitchers was only 9 deep.

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  3. #22
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    I won't comment on the injury, but...I hope the Twins aren't making decisions based on May pitching in the futures game. If, in the normal course of events, he does, great. If they are keeping him from the majors specifically for that game...not great.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  5. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I don't detect anyone on here "freaking out". Instead, just "pointing out" that that's not how other teams do it. A big deal was made by Terry Ryan a few weeks ago, in his "why not us?" comment in regards to the Morales signing. Since then, the team has done practically nothing to follow up with that aggressive move- and their moves of late have been down-right head-scratching.
    Either: 1) We accept that the Twins are earnestly trying to win now while balancing that with player development, especially being conservative with pitching talent. The Twins may have specific plan for May that they believe is in his and the team's best interest. Or: 2) The Twins are secretly rebuilding and saving as much as they can, and the win-now mantra is a bit of hegemony for the fanbase. While they know May will succeed, they hold him back because it benfits their longterm cause (continued bamboozling the public with the mere specter of winning). The Twins, rather than winning, want to reward journeyman players because it gives them warm fuzzies (they got a really nice greeting card from grammy Pino).

    While the Twins may be wrong about their evaluation of May's future success, their delicate touch with pitching prospects is hardly head-scratching. And in my mind it's prudent, as May's success (and capacity to help the team win now) is hardly a forgone conclusion, much less at the start.

  6. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Either: 1) We accept that the Twins are earnestly trying to win now while balancing that with player development, especially being conservative with pitching talent. The Twins may have specific plan for May that they believe is in his and the team's best interest. Or: 2) The Twins are secretly rebuilding and saving as much as they can, and the win-now mantra is a bit of hegemony for the fanbase. While they know May will succeed, they hold him back because it benfits their longterm cause (continued bamboozling the public with the mere specter of winning). The Twins, rather than winning, want to reward journeyman players because it gives them warm fuzzies (they got a really nice greeting card from grammy Pino).

    While the Twins may be wrong about their evaluation of May's future success, their delicate touch with pitching prospects is hardly head-scratching. And in my mind it's prudent, as May's success (and capacity to help the team win now) is hardly a forgone conclusion, much less at the start.
    You don't rebuild with one of their oldest rosters in years and a franchise record number of players in their 30s so it must be option 1.

  7. #25
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    You don't rebuild with one of their oldest rosters in years and a franchise record number of players in their 30s so it must be option 1.
    Or just a muddled mess .... and that's what it is looking more and more like to me.

  8. #26
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    Or just a muddled mess .... and that's what it is looking more and more like to me.
    Or... waiting for the crop of new kids to be ready, and using older players to supplement until then. "Muddling through" isn't necessarily the same as "muddled mess".

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  10. #27
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    With the way the team is now playing and being managed "muddling through" and "muddled mess" is EXACTLY the same thing, how can anyone draw the conclusion differently?

  11. #28
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    With the way the team is now playing and being managed "muddling through" and "muddled mess" is EXACTLY the same thing, how can anyone draw the conclusion differently?
    One acknowledges that there's a plan in place and a light at the end of the tunnel. One doesn't.

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  13. #29
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    Frankly I do not think Twins' management recognizes the difference, do any of you?

  14. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    Frankly I do not think Twins' management recognizes the difference, do any of you?
    Seeing as how Ryan has successful rebuilt teams in the past, yes, I do think he recognizes the difference.

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  16. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Either: 1) We accept that the Twins are earnestly trying to win now while balancing that with player development, especially being conservative with pitching talent. The Twins may have specific plan for May that they believe is in his and the team's best interest. Or: 2) The Twins are secretly rebuilding and saving as much as they can, and the win-now mantra is a bit of hegemony for the fanbase. While they know May will succeed, they hold him back because it benfits their longterm cause (continued bamboozling the public with the mere specter of winning). The Twins, rather than winning, want to reward journeyman players because it gives them warm fuzzies (they got a really nice greeting card from grammy Pino).

    While the Twins may be wrong about their evaluation of May's future success, their delicate touch with pitching prospects is hardly head-scratching. And in my mind it's prudent, as May's success (and capacity to help the team win now) is hardly a forgone conclusion, much less at the start.
    In my mind, the chance for "success (and capacity to help the team now)" of anyone else they are using in that #5 spot is actually much less than May's "forgone conclusion hardliness", at the start, middle or finish of their tenure with the Twins. Again, your best prospects have to start getting major league experience, somewhere, at some point in time. May is soon 25, it would be nice for him to get established in the majors, at some point, before he begins his physical decline phase- which draws ever closer. They need look no further than to the guy they delayed calling up last year, and then "failed" when he was finally called up- referring to Kyle Gibson of course.
    Last edited by jokin; 06-29-2014 at 07:46 PM.

  17. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    If you want to start a pitcher based on best pitching prospect, the best pitching prospect in the organization would not be May. If you wanted to base it on who was pitching best in AAA, that would be debatable as to who was better. May did not stand out above all others.
    St Louis has 4 starters on the dl. Lucky for them it wasn't their top 4. It fills a need to call up Gonzales, but with no quality in AAA or AA for the season thus far. They had to try Gonzales. About the closest thing I could compare the situation in St Louis to Minnesota is in 2011 if they would have promoted Hendriks because he was pitching well in AA that year. They are similar in that they are soft tossing control pitchers.

    I don't think it was a good idea to call up Gonzales.
    You don't think it was a good idea to call up Gonzales, but the Cardinals do think it was a good idea. I'm going to go with the appeal to proven successful track record and authority on this one.

  18. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    If you want to start a pitcher based on best pitching prospect, the best pitching prospect in the organization would not be May.

    If you wanted to base it on who was pitching best in AAA, that would be debatable as to who was better. May did not stand out above all others.
    St Louis has 4 starters on the dl. Lucky for them it wasn't their top 4. It fills a need to call up Gonzales, but with no quality in AAA or AA for the season thus far. They had to try Gonzales. About the closest thing I could compare the situation in St Louis to Minnesota is in 2011 if they would have promoted Hendriks because he was pitching well in AA that year. They are similar in that they are soft tossing control pitchers. I don't think it was a good idea to call up Gonzales. His call up was based on a desperate need in an organization that found their depth in major league starting pitchers was only 9 deep.
    I'm wondering where your evidence is that May does not stand out above the others? It's pretty well-known that May is the 2nd best pitching prospect in AAA, and the best performer in Rochester. He has the lowest FIP @ 2,99, and unllike Pino (FIP 3.71), he isn't relying on impossible-to-maintain Strand (92%) and BABIP (.222) rates to support his low ERA. Do we even have to mention that May's stuff should obviously translate better to the majors than Pino? If the opposite were true, wouldn't Pino have stuck with one of his many previous teams as a viable prospect, and been called up to the majors by one of those numerous previous teams before he reached the age of 30?
    Last edited by jokin; 06-30-2014 at 02:41 AM.

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  20. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    One acknowledges that there's a plan in place and a light at the end of the tunnel. One doesn't.
    The Twins have never acknowledged that they were in rebuild mode or win-now mode, by default then, they've chosen a "muddling" middle ground mode.

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  22. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm wondering where your evidence is that May does not stand out above the others? It's pretty well-known that May is the 2nd best pitching prospect in AAA, and the best performer in Rochester. He has the lowest FIP @ 3.12, and unllike Pino (FIP 3.71), he isn't relying on impossible-to-maintain Strand (92%) and BABIP (.222) rates to support his low ERA. Do we even have to mention that May's stuff should obviously translate better to the majors than Pino? If the opposite were true, wouldn't Pino have stuck with one of his many previous teams as a viable prospect, and been called up to the majors by one of those numerous previous teams before he reached the age of 30?
    First of all, On Gonzalez. St Louis had no choice but to call him up. They had no one else. Without a plus fastball, with a very poor curve, all he really has is his change up. One pitch pitcher that don't have a fastball do not fare well in the majors as starters. St Louis does not deserve praise for promoting him. That is the point you keep missing.
    You compare Pino to May. I never said Pino was better than May. Compare May's numbers with Hendrik's AAA numbers. Hendrik would appear to be the superior pitcher. Did the numbers translate to the majors for Hendriks? I do not put much stock in AAA numbers. It is a different game.

  23. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The Twins have never acknowledged that they were in rebuild mode or win-now mode, by default then, they've chosen a "muddling" middle ground mode.
    I don't see where they are required to acknowledge that they are rebuilding... or not rebuilding. They aren't accountable to you and me, just as you aren't required to buy tickets or watch their product. I think their actions pretty much speak for themselves, as does the record over the last 3 seasons. You cannot buy your way out of 90+ loss seasons through free agency. The odds are heavily against them, and they are far more likely to end up with a ton of bad contracts then they are a division championship.

    In that scenario, the only thing the Twins can do is to start acquiring young talent via the draft and trading off tradable pieces for more young talent. The draft everyone gets to do, though their draft position obviously plays a role into the types of talents they get in the first couple of rounds. The trades have been even more obvious picking up much needed pitching help (Meyer, May, Worley, Gilmartin, Hernandez, Sulbaran, and Johnson) and potentially useful pieces (Escobar, Nunez) by trading off Span, Revere, Doumit, Morneau, and Liriano. Some of those guys have failed (Worley and Hernandez in particular) as is going to happen with young talent, but thus far the rest look to be useful pieces. Meyer, May, and to a lesser extent Escobar, look like they could be well above average components.

    I don't see how this is choosing a 'muddling' middle ground. They looked at the system and put a plan in place to repair it... Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but the results so far are promising.

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  25. #37
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    5) By your own logic, why not keep all of the AAA pitching options down? From your line about pitching success being hardly a foregone conclusion, perhaps the Twins should have gone the entirely "conservative, prudent" route with all of the AAA guys and just signed every major league DFA and FA as they became available and plugged them in, instead. That certainly would have aided the Twins even more in keeping "their delicate touch" intact with these oh-so-fragile AAA flowers.
    I don't think anyone is arguing for this. No one would have expected May to be in the rotation this spring. His AA numbers didn't exactly scream that he was ready. They showed hope that he was turning the corner.

    Of course, at the same time, people were screaming for them to go out and get pitching help... so they did. You were pretty happy about that as I recall, as was I. May would be in the rotation right now had the Twins not gone after free agent pitching.

  26. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm wondering where your evidence is that May does not stand out above the others? It's pretty well-known that May is the 2nd best pitching prospect in AAA, and the best performer in Rochester. He has the lowest FIP @ 3.12, and unllike Pino (FIP 3.71), he isn't relying on impossible-to-maintain Strand (92%) and BABIP (.222) rates to support his low ERA.
    Minor league fip numbers are pretty useless. In a recent chat, KLaw said as much. Here are the AAA fip leaders among starters from 2007: Kevin Slowey, Yovani Gallardo, Dallas Braden, Jason Hammel, Matt Garza, Aaron Laffey, Jae Kuk Ryu, Rob Bell, Kurt Birkins, Mark Difelice. Couple decent starters in there but a lot of jetsum as well.

    May's problem has never been stuff but command. Nothing wrong with giving a few starts to Pinto (and he was excellent in his first one). May will be up eventually.

  27. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Minor league fip numbers are pretty useless. In a recent chat, KLaw said as much. Here are the AAA fip leaders among starters from 2007: Kevin Slowey, Yovani Gallardo, Dallas Braden, Jason Hammel, Matt Garza, Aaron Laffey, Jae Kuk Ryu, Rob Bell, Kurt Birkins, Mark Difelice. Couple decent starters in there but a lot of jetsum as well.

    May's problem has never been stuff but command. Nothing wrong with giving a few starts to Pinto (and he was excellent in his first one). May will be up eventually.
    Except the FIP numbers mostly all confirm the other peripheral stats, and the Rochester pitchers as a group are performing under similar conditions, adding to the general validity of the FIP number when used in context.

    Regarding Pino, there's nothing wrong with giving Pino these starts......if....one doesn't mind using up those opportunities for development to journeyman over to pitchers who will actually be a part of the long-term plans for when the Twins finally have their newer, younger lineup in place.

  28. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    So the Futures Game is more of a concern to the Twins than May pitching in place of Pino on Monday, or next Saturday, or July 10. (At more than one point in time on TD, there was scoffing and scolding on this site when it was suggested that the Twins might withhold May until after the Futures Game).
    Yeah...you have to question the motives here. I will be glad when this all star stuff is done and the game moves someplace else next year.

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