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Thread: Eureka!

  1. #1
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    Eureka!

    Here how Suzuki becomes expendible:

    move Mauer back to catcher - frankly, his offensive numbers at 1st are below pathetic. At least he can be elite behind the plate.

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    Hosken Bombo Disco (06-27-2014)

  3. #2
    Senior Member All-Star
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    I think that ship has sailed. Assuming Joe's offensive troubles are going to correct themselves simply because of another position change sounds more like superstition if there is no reasonable data to back it up.

  4. #3
    Senior Member Triple-A raindog's Avatar
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    Great idea! Well besides the small problem of Mauer having a history of serious brain injuries that he's had a hard time recovering from.

    Get real. The guy has a family to think about.

    Besides, he's been heating up lately. No way his numbers don't get closer to career norms.

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  6. #4
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    He'll be back in the low .300s by the end of the year. We sure miss having Plouffe and Santana in the lineup

  7. #5
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    Sorry - this is what happens when you log on to Twins Daily after a night at the boozer.




    I'm not a Mauer hater, and if he is still post-concussion strapped, I'm sorry for him, but I remember Mientkiewicz being criticized for his power numbers, in spite of outrageous gold glove defense, so I do feel given what he is paid, his numbers are waaaaay short, recent surge included.

    Yeah, raindog, you are 100% right.

  8. #6
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Joe Mauer: .320/.401/.461/862 133 OPS+
    Tony Gwynn: .338/.388/.459 132 OPS+
    Kirby Puckett: .318/.360/.477 124 OPS+
    Paul Molitor: .305/.369/.448 122 OPS+
    Rod Carew: .328/.393/.429 131 OPS+
    Derek Jeter: .311/.380/.444 116 OPS+
    Johny Bench: .267/.342/.476/.817 126 OPS+
    Pete Rose: .303/.375/.409/.784 118 OPS+



    Can we please put the notion that Joe Mauer was only a good hitter for a "catcher" to bed? His bat clearly plays anywhere, and at this point he is a sure thing hall of famer as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  9. #7
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    Just crunched some numbers... to finish this season with his career slash line pre-2014, Mauer would have to go roughly .375/.466/.589 from here on out -- which highlights how remarkable his whole 2009 season was (.365/.444/.587). (Although we are in a notably worse offensive environment now: 4.82 runs/game in 2009, down to 4.27 so far this year, making this level of performance even less likely now.)

    Slighty more useful: if from now until the end of the season, Mauer hits at his pre-2014 career averages, he will finish at approximately .297/.373/.408, for a .782 OPS or roughly a 118 OPS+ (roughly what Dozier is hitting so far this season). Actually that is just shy of his preseason ZIPS of .292/.378/.414 (.792 OPS). Not a lot of evidence to suggest that is going to happen either, though (his 10 game hitting streak is mostly BABIP, only 2 walks and below career average ISO during that time too).

    The fairly optimistic Steamer projections have him hitting roughly that sub-career average level (.794 OPS) for the rest of the season, meaning he finishes at a .743 OPS, or a ~108 OPS+. That's 2014 Suzuki territory, notably ahead of only Mauer's lost 2011 season (which is still, as a 102 OPS+, notably ahead of Mauer's 2014 so far).

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  11. #8
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
    Sorry - this is what happens when you log on to Twins Daily after a night at the boozer.


    YES! I KNEW IT!

  12. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Can we please put the notion that Joe Mauer was only a good hitter for a "catcher" to bed? His bat clearly plays anywhere, and at this point he is a sure thing hall of famer as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff.
    To tie my post back to yours, out of the players in your list, I think Jeter might be the most hopeful comparison for Mauer's 2014. None of the others ever really rebounded from a similar performance drop, post-30.

    Even then, Jeter only had ~2 plus seasons after his drop at age 34.

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