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Thread: Bowden - Hitters Who Could Be Dealt

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    My hope is that the Twins win 85 games this year and are part of the conversation until the end.

    Short of 85 wins, I hope they rebuild. I hope for a roster similar to 82-83 or 99-00. Suzuki would not be the catcher on the roster. Gardenhire would not be the manager.

    So my plan for Suzuki would be to continue to roll with him and assess in a month. If they are on pace for at least 85 wins, keep it going. If not, sell off decline phase players for the best deal offered. Pinto would catch the remainder of the year. Vargas would DH. Rosario would be in LF. May and Meyer (assuming health) would be in the rotation. Achter, Tonkin and Oliveras would be in the pen.
    I like that plan and my only quibble would be that I value Suzuki more than I did when the Twins first got him. Maybe he will tank shortly and I will change my mind again but right now he is a difference maker for this team and I don't see that we have anything better ready for the next couple of years.

    I like Pinto but is his defense any better than Suzuki's? Pinto has more power but his Batting average and OBP are quite a bit lower as well. I think SD Buhr is likely correct that he ends up more of a DH backup catcher than everyday catcher. I am not adamantly opposed to trading Suzuki but I would want something decent in return because I think he does make this team better for the next couple of years.

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  3. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    My hope is that the Twins win 85 games this year and are part of the conversation until the end.

    Short of 85 wins, I hope they rebuild. I hope for a roster similar to 82-83 or 99-00. Suzuki would not be the catcher on the roster. Gardenhire would not be the manager.

    So my plan for Suzuki would be to continue to roll with him and assess in a month. If they are on pace for at least 85 wins, keep it going. If not, sell off decline phase players for the best deal offered. Pinto would catch the remainder of the year. Vargas would DH. Rosario would be in LF. May and Meyer (assuming health) would be in the rotation. Achter, Tonkin and Oliveras would be in the pen.
    Well and good, but you still didn't indicate who you think the Twins would use as their primary starting catcher next year and in 2016. Seems like Pinto and, if so, I just don't think the Twins are likely to do that at this point.

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  4. #63
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SD Buhr View Post
    Well and good, but you still didn't indicate who you think the Twins would use as their primary starting catcher next year and in 2016. Seems like Pinto and, if so, I just don't think the Twins are likely to do that at this point.
    I would like to see the 82-83 or 99-00 type of rebuild that jorgenswest is referring too. That would mean a Pinto/Herrmann/Player C type of on-the-job, year long competition for catcher, similar to how Pierzynski developed.

    As it is, I don't think the troika of Ryan/Gardy/Antony have the courage to attempt a rebuild like that anymore. So with Mauer out of the picture expect to see a continuing parade of proven veterans signed to play catcher, starting with Doumit, and now Suzuki. So in that sense, I agree with you. As long as we've already got him and he likes it here, try to sign Suzuki on year to year contracts.

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    [QUOTE=Hosken Bombo Disco;248729]I would like to see the 82-83 or 99-00 type of rebuild that jorgenswest is referring too. That would mean a Pinto/Herrmann/Player C type of on-the-job, year long competition for catcher, similar to how Pierzynski developed.

    As it is, I don't think the troika of Ryan/Gardy/Antony have the courage to attempt a rebuild like that anymore. QUOTE]

    I tend to agree with you and the think one of the major differences is Target field (they feel a need to have a few veterans around). In that sense, I think the field has hurt the club a tad. Our payroll in 2000 was $16M. The Yankees were at $95M, so if you say $16M then equals $35M now...no way we go back to that type of payroll witha new staduim even if it means that we would be better off in 1-2 years.

  6. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Dman View Post
    I think the question many of us have is what value does Suzuki have on the trade market? Teams have been reluctant to give up much more than relievers or C level prospects for players to make a run. The exception being for solid pitching. If a team offered a solid B or A level prospect for Suzuki would pretty much everyone on the board be happy with that. I think so.

    The problem is that right now Suzuki is the best hitter on this team and he has been consistent since the beginning of the season. Would most teams trade their best hitter for a C level prospect or two? I don't think so. Most teams would try and lock that guy up.

    You are correct odds are he will regress this year and in the following years but he also could stay around the 270 or 280 level as well. Cuddeyer was supposed to be washed up and he won a batting title after leaving the Twins. Morneau looks to be having a better year than his last two after leaving. Hunter was supposed to be on the decline when he left the Twins and he performed better for several years after he left and is still playing well. So age doesn't always predict productivity.

    The reason most of us myself included didn't want Suzuki at the beginning of the year is that his bat was likely not much better than Pinto's and Pinto needed to learn by doing. It appears that the Pitching staff appreciates what Suzuki brings to the table and Pinto is injured and has a few things to work on yet. They can still split time if Suzuki were resigned for a couple of years and if Pinto takes off Suzuki could be traded later.

    I think the Twins will wait for a desperation offer at the deadline for Suzuki. If they get what they want they will trade him, if not they will have him sign an extension and likely overpay for his services, but that is what you do for the best hitter on your team.
    So if there is such a shortage of catchers, especially hitting the market, why are teams so reluctant to give up anything more than a C prospect for him? To the right team who is making a run and needs a hitter, I certainly could see a solid B prospect.

    While he could stay around 270 or 280 what happens when his BABIP falls to career levels? A .325 BABIP is not sustainable, especially for a player with his speed, that's 50 points higher than his career average. How valuable is he if he falls down to .255-.310-.375? In limted AB's Pinto was .222-.323-.407 with a measly .245 BABIP.

    The 3 players you named are not fair comparisons. They are all OF, not catchers, and all 3 weren't retained for different reasons. Cuddyer arguably had his best season in his last year as a Twin. He was not retained because the Twins were losing and couldn't afford a 8+M 33 year OF. I think everyone here still thought Justin had lingering concussion symptoms, which would be anyone's guess to if they would ever go away. They seem to and his $5M contract seems like a good one for Colorado. Hunter much like Cuddy, had a giant last season as a Twin. The contract he got from Anaheim was ridiculous in terms of Twins standards.

    If they are going to invest $7.5M a season for Susuki, I highly doubt he is going to split time with Pinto. That's starting money. If they aren't in contention what's the harm of letting Pinto come up and catch IF Suzuki is traded? Maybe I'm too high on Pinto? IDK.

    The "current" best hitter. Let's just call me a skeptic when a 30 year old with 3000+ AB is having his best season hitting of his career in the first half of the season.

  7. #66
    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    This is not a discussion of the manager leaving and who the next will be. Please stay on topic and start a new thread if that is the discussion you wish to have. Off-topic posts have been deleted. Thank you and I apologize for the interruption of the discussion.
    Last edited by ChiTownTwinsFan; 06-27-2014 at 01:14 PM.

  8. #67
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    I'm not willing to go through 2.5 years of "on the job" training for a catcher at this point.

    Suzuki's offense is not the issue. The issue is that he's getting credit from his pitchers for his handling of duties behind the plate and I believe that's an important consideration for a club that I hope to see being competitive in 2015-16.

    If you think the pitchers are full of crap with their praise and that Pinto would be just as good at that job because he gets similar "framing" scores, then ok. I just disagree.

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  10. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    I would like to see the 82-83 or 99-00 type of rebuild that jorgenswest is referring too. That would mean a Pinto/Herrmann/Player C type of on-the-job, year long competition for catcher, similar to how Pierzynski developed.
    2000 was actually an unmitigated disaster at the position (as bad as 2011 when Mauer was out), until AJ emerged at AA/AAA then came up in mid-August. A lot of scrambling around and wasted PAs with inadequate defenders and AAA rejects. The Twins would have been much better off trusting their doubts about LeCroy's catching abilities, and convincing Steinbach to stay another year (or finding a similar vet).

    1982-1983 is an interesting comp, although it should be noted that the Twins had at least two MLB ready youngsters going into that period (Laudner and Engle, adding Salas a few years later) both of whom they trusted with the starting job at one time or another.

    Unless someone else emerges quickly, Pinto looks to be about it, and right or wrong, the Twins already seem to view his defensive future at the position closer to LeCroy than that of a full-time catcher.

  11. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwainZag View Post
    So if there is such a shortage of catchers, especially hitting the market, why are teams so reluctant to give up anything more than a C prospect for him? To the right team who is making a run and needs a hitter, I certainly could see a solid B prospect.
    Prospects are much more valued today than what they once were. Teams have figured out that trading a blue chip prospect for a half season run doesn't typically work out in their favor.

    To be clear, I wouldn't trade Suzuki for anything. He's out played his contract this season and I have no problems letting him finish the season in MN if no good offers come. But given their play thus far, Suzuki and Willingham will be difference makers if they are offered up on the market. That, to me at least, works out well for the Twins. I doubt we will see top 100 prospects for either of them, but getting a 100-150 guy I think is very doable.

  12. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwainZag View Post
    So if there is such a shortage of catchers, especially hitting the market, why are teams so reluctant to give up anything more than a C prospect for him? To the right team who is making a run and needs a hitter, I certainly could see a solid B prospect.

    While he could stay around 270 or 280 what happens when his BABIP falls to career levels? A .325 BABIP is not sustainable, especially for a player with his speed, that's 50 points higher than his career average. How valuable is he if he falls down to .255-.310-.375? In limted AB's Pinto was .222-.323-.407 with a measly .245 BABIP.

    The 3 players you named are not fair comparisons. They are all OF, not catchers, and all 3 weren't retained for different reasons. Cuddyer arguably had his best season in his last year as a Twin. He was not retained because the Twins were losing and couldn't afford a 8+M 33 year OF. I think everyone here still thought Justin had lingering concussion symptoms, which would be anyone's guess to if they would ever go away. They seem to and his $5M contract seems like a good one for Colorado. Hunter much like Cuddy, had a giant last season as a Twin. The contract he got from Anaheim was ridiculous in terms of Twins standards.

    If they are going to invest $7.5M a season for Susuki, I highly doubt he is going to split time with Pinto. That's starting money. If they aren't in contention what's the harm of letting Pinto come up and catch IF Suzuki is traded? Maybe I'm too high on Pinto? IDK.

    The "current" best hitter. Let's just call me a skeptic when a 30 year old with 3000+ AB is having his best season hitting of his career in the first half of the season.
    A shortage of catchers has nothing to do with a possible deadline trade. The team that wants him only gets him for two or three months tops and they might not be able to resign him as FA. The deal they are making is short term thus they might not want to give up much more than a C level prospect. He might be worth a B level it is just hard to say as he does have defensive short comings.

    His BABIP will fall there is no question but he is good at making contact and making pitchers work and he has been consistent for three months now. There is a decent chance he won't fall all the way back to his career norms.

    I am lazy about coming up with examples of players who have successful years after 30. I would guess there are plenty of examples for catchers who do well after 30. Certainly older age brings decline but it varies from player to player. Isn't AJ 37 and the Twins wanted him this year.

    Maybe he wouldn't split time with Pinto it is just a thought or opinion of something they could do. Catchers typically get days off and someone has to fill in.

    He might not end up the best hitter for BA on the team at the end of the year but he is by a pretty significant margin right now. What does that say about the rest of the hitters on this team?

  13. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by Dman View Post
    A shortage of catchers has nothing to do with a possible deadline trade. The team that wants him only gets him for two or three months tops and they might not be able to resign him as FA. The deal they are making is short term thus they might not want to give up much more than a C level prospect. He might be worth a B level it is just hard to say as he does have defensive short comings.

    His BABIP will fall there is no question but he is good at making contact and making pitchers work and he has been consistent for three months now. There is a decent chance he won't fall all the way back to his career norms.

    I am lazy about coming up with examples of players who have successful years after 30. I would guess there are plenty of examples for catchers who do well after 30. Certainly older age brings decline but it varies from player to player. Isn't AJ 37 and the Twins wanted him this year.

    Maybe he wouldn't split time with Pinto it is just a thought or opinion of something they could do. Catchers typically get days off and someone has to fill in.

    He might not end up the best hitter for BA on the team at the end of the year but he is by a pretty significant margin right now. What does that say about the rest of the hitters on this team?
    I don't mean for the rest of the year. I mean for the next 2-3 years with this big money extension talk. He would have to tank pretty hard to get his numbers to career norms at this point, but what does that say about next year and the years after that? This is the same guy who hit .235/.276/.328 just two short seasons ago. I know this board unrealistically heavy on the "what have you done for me lately" wagon, and I have enjoyed what Suzuki has done this year, but come on......look at the BABIP, look at career averages......very few players just turn around their career at 30 after 3000 AB. Signing extensions at the absolute high point is just dumb, at least in my opinion.

  14. #72
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Kirby_Waved_At_Me's Avatar
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    here are the catchers that are likely free agents in 2015:

    Catchers
    John Buck (34)
    Ryan Doumit (34)
    Nick Hundley (31) – $5MM club option
    Gerald Laird (35)
    Russell Martin (32)
    Jeff Mathis (32) – $1.5MM club option
    Wil Nieves (36)
    Miguel Olivo (36)
    A.J. Pierzynski (38)
    David Ross (38)
    Geovany Soto (32)
    Kurt Suzuki (31)

    in a word, yuck.

    If the Twins are not sold on Pinto for 2015 and they are looking for a player outside the organization to be the catcher more than 40% of the time, I think Suzuki is probably the best choice on the list.

    Yes, Suzuki is a trade candidate. At the moment, though, Pinto is on the DL in AAA, so it's Fryer/Herrmann that would be taking over and the Twins would be getting "something" in return - not sure it would be worth it.

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  16. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwainZag View Post
    I don't mean for the rest of the year. I mean for the next 2-3 years with this big money extension talk. He would have to tank pretty hard to get his numbers to career norms at this point, but what does that say about next year and the years after that? This is the same guy who hit .235/.276/.328 just two short seasons ago. I know this board unrealistically heavy on the "what have you done for me lately" wagon, and I have enjoyed what Suzuki has done this year, but come on......look at the BABIP, look at career averages......very few players just turn around their career at 30 after 3000 AB. Signing extensions at the absolute high point is just dumb, at least in my opinion.
    I agree with you that he won't have as good a year next year or the year after or at least it is very unlikely. I am going against statistics which in the end will likely make me look silly but it seems like he has figured something out and I have a feeling that he won't regress all the way back to his career norms. I think he will end up somewhere in between where he is now and his career norms. I have no numbers on my side just a hunch. Not that he is a catcher but to use Cuddy as an example I don't think his career numbers ever indicated that he would win a batting title and yet he did.

    You have the statistical evidence on your side no question but with Suzuki massively over achieving for this long it seems hard to believe he would fall all the way back to where he was even in the next couple of years.
    Last edited by Dman; 06-27-2014 at 03:07 PM.

  17. #74
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    I would argue that even his career norms would be reason enough to keep him around another year. Better than Fryer, Herrmann, and the younger guys like Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver are a couple years away at least.
    If Suzuki turns into a pumpkin, then the Twins can make Pinto the everyday catacher with Suzuki as his backup next season.

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  19. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby_Waved_At_Me View Post
    here are the catchers that are likely free agents in 2015:

    Catchers
    John Buck (34)
    Ryan Doumit (34)
    Nick Hundley (31) – $5MM club option
    Gerald Laird (35)
    Russell Martin (32)
    Jeff Mathis (32) – $1.5MM club option
    Wil Nieves (36)
    Miguel Olivo (36)
    A.J. Pierzynski (38)
    David Ross (38)
    Geovany Soto (32)
    Kurt Suzuki (31)

    in a word, yuck.

    If the Twins are not sold on Pinto for 2015 and they are looking for a player outside the organization to be the catcher more than 40% of the time, I think Suzuki is probably the best choice on the list.

    Yes, Suzuki is a trade candidate. At the moment, though, Pinto is on the DL in AAA, so it's Fryer/Herrmann that would be taking over and the Twins would be getting "something" in return - not sure it would be worth it.
    That is the key for me, the next best option. Couple other pieces of additional information. AJ took less money with a winner last off-sesaon, doubt he comes here. Soto had a few good years, basically played about 80 games over the last three seasons and he tore his miniscus this year and hasn't played. So in my eyes we either get Russell Martin somehow in a weak off-sesson for catchers (not holding my breath) or we have a drop in production from that position unless we somehow hand the reigns over to Pinto who we let catch about once a week this year. I just don't see it.

    The other option is we trade Suzuki and then re-sign him. That just doesn't happen very often.

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  21. #76
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    There is a big difference between what the Twins should do and what they will do.

    I just don't see them trading Suzuki. They almost never sell high. I see them signing him to an extension, and regretting it when he reverts to his career norms.

    I'd trade him and give Pinto a shot.

  22. #77
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    Simple stuff here as regards the two - Suzuki can field, Pinto cannot. With many young pitchers soon to be in the rotation in years to come a prudent organization opts for Suzuki.

  23. #78
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    One big thing that I think isn't being discussed here is that Suzuki plays a big role in this. He's having a career year. I doubt he's going to want to sign a 1 or 2 year extension. He's likely going to want a bigger deal, and rightfully so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    One big thing that I think isn't being discussed here is that Suzuki plays a big role in this. He's having a career year. I doubt he's going to want to sign a 1 or 2 year extension. He's likely going to want a bigger deal, and rightfully so.

    Yeah that could be a problem if he wants to go more than 2 years. It makes the risk greater as each year he ages the odds of him performing well decrease. Age is an uphill climb. If he continues to be consistent I like him for two more years but I can't see going beyond that. I guess as things stand the Twins have room for dead money so maybe it isn't that a big deal but I like him for two otherwise I go with the trade him crowd.

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    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Personally, I don't like the line of reasoning that says that the Twins have room for dead money. I don't like it about as much as I don't like the idea that if everyone else does their job, player X doesn't have to perform, or games in April don't mean much. These strike me as reasons to justify a bad decisions/play that will eventually have long term ramifications. I get that the Twins have room to spend, but it doesn't take a whole lot of bad money contracts for them to suddenly be unable to make a smart move when the time comes. Just my 2 cents.

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