Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 7 of 7 FirstFirst ... 567
Results 121 to 128 of 128

Thread: Article: Jared Burton, the case for dismissal.

  1. #121
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,706
    Like
    862
    Liked 843 Times in 539 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Hey, great points. But isn't projecting the future, 2015 in this case, all projection at this point anyway?

    We can look at talent, projection, depth all we want. But until the season ends, MLB and Milb, and FA occurs and next ST, it's all just projection and theory. Right?

    Imploring even a bit of logic along with projectables, current performance, stuff, and performance recently before this season, we can make a few strong educated guesses.

    First, can we at least agree that a MLB pitcher who is 30, or early 30's is not an over the hill albatross? If you disagree, then Perk, Duensing, Swarzak, Fien and Nolasco should be immediately be shown to the nearest turn style, handed a walker, and thanked for their efforts. Now, Nolasco hasn't lived up to expectation yet, but do we really jettison a veteran pitcher with a solid history after half a season? Do we dump an all star reliever because his counter clicked past 29? Fien has been anywhere from good to very good, if not better at times, since he came on board. But we're scared suddenly he'll need a Walker to take the mound next year? Some fans just have a dislike for Duensing that I just don't get. He's not perfect, but he's been a very solid LH reliever when allowed to concentrate on a role instead of being bounced around.

    I understand your numbers. I really do. And baseball is a game of numbers. But those numbers can also be fluid from week to week, month to month, and especially in the case of relievers, year to year.

    Correia will be gone. Barring another fountain of youth for the second half of the season, so should be Burton and Guerrier. This is where logic, diminishing talent meet. Along with talented prospects intrude. Pino and Deduno are what they are. And what they are are fill in players who's time has come. With the talent coming up, you think the Twins don't recognize this. Once again, this is a transition year. Or is it better, and more acurate to call it a bridge year?

    Logic and projection would show a rotation next year of Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, possibly May, and someone else. Someone else could be Meyer, Darnell, Pelfrey or Johnson. (Possibly Berrios at some point)

    Logic also dictates a pen of Perkins, Fien, a FA, Duensing, Thielbar, and 2 others that may include Pressly, Tonkin, Atcher, Swarzak, Oliveres and a few others.

    Best logical guess would be 5-6 pitchers on the staff that were 30 plus. And was pointed out, there is a difference from an effective 30 y.o. Compared to an end of the road mid to late 30 y.o.

    Hey, I want every top Twins prospect to hit the ML's tomorrow and just rock it! But if we have 40-50% of our total pitching staff at age 30 and effective, this is a bad thing? How? Because one or two of them are holding a spot solidly until a younger player is ready?
    Since 5.5 is the current AL average for over-30 pitchers, that would be a much better number and hopefully, we'd also match most of the AL and have 2-3 solid, contributing arms under 25, as well. But that will mean a lot of guys are going to get run off of the club, which is not usually the Twins MO.

    I just wish that they had paid more attention to the data before they let the situation get to this point.

  2. #122
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,706
    Like
    862
    Liked 843 Times in 539 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    Sigh. His current fastball on average is faster than what was clocked in 2009, 2010 and 2011. In terms of what makes Burton effective as a reliever do you really think it was a blazing 91-92 mph fastball? A fastball that averages 91 versus 91.5 versus 91.9 (as Burton effectiveness was not in dispute) really makes a difference
    But Burton's effectiveness is in dispute, in 2009, 2010 and 2011. It helps to add the full context to the numbers you cite. His velocity was at the lowest of his career in all three seasons. And- his velocity actually dropped 2.2 MPH from 2007 to 2009 (93.2 vs. 91.0), what you failed to mention, Burton pitched hurt most of 2009 and made multiple trips to the DL- and he ended up with the worst year of his career to that point in time. And you're comparing a lousy year in 2009 when he was pitching hurt, with a lousy year in 2014 when he's supposedly healthy.

    And he was hurt for all but but 3 innings in 2010 and 4 innings in 2011- his velo was at the low point of his career, but I'm not sure why would you even use those years as examples of anything.

    He regained his full health in his first year with the Twins in 2012 at age 30/31 ...and his velocity returned to at, or near, career-bests in 3 pitches (92.6 on his 4-seam FB, and career highs in velocity on his 2-seam FB- 93.0 and also on his CB- 92.9)

    His velocity dropped in 2013 at age 31/32, and his hit-ability and wildness increased.

    His velocity further dropped in 2014 at age 32/33- to levels similar to his previous- mentioned lousy, but unhealthy year of 2009, and his strikeouts have also dropped, along with increased hit-ability and wildness.

    These numbers confirm the trends cited for all pitchers in the aggregate.

  3. #123
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    621
    Like
    12
    Liked 36 Times in 31 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    But Burton's effectiveness is in dispute, in 2009, 2010 and 2011. It helps to add the full context to the numbers you cite. His velocity was at the lowest of his career in all three seasons. And- his velocity actually dropped 2.2 MPH from 2007 to 2009 (93.2 vs. 91.0), what you failed to mention, Burton pitched hurt most of 2009 and made multiple trips to the DL- and he ended up with the worst year of his career to that point in time. And you're comparing a lousy year in 2009 when he was pitching hurt, with a lousy year in 2014 when he's supposedly healthy.

    And he was hurt for all but but 3 innings in 2010 and 4 innings in 2011- his velo was at the low point of his career, but I'm not sure why would you even use those years as examples of anything.

    He regained his full health in his first year with the Twins in 2012 at age 30/31 ...and his velocity returned to at, or near, career-bests in 3 pitches (92.6 on his 4-seam FB, and career highs in velocity on his 2-seam FB- 93.0 and also on his CB- 92.9)

    His velocity dropped in 2013 at age 31/32, and his hit-ability and wildness increased.

    His velocity further dropped in 2014 at age 32/33- to levels similar to his previous- mentioned lousy, but unhealthy year of 2009, and his strikeouts have also dropped, along with increased hit-ability and wildness.

    These numbers confirm the trends cited for all pitchers in the aggregate.
    Did you finally figutre out therer are other things that go on with a pitcher besides age that can change his velocity? By your reply you didn't connect the dots because everything happens because of age. How do you know there isn't something going on in his arm now that is a developing injury? I bet you can diagnose without seeing it . The diagnosis is old age.l
    There are more factors that come into play for an aging curve for an athlete. It is still up to gentics, injuries, training to determine how a player declines. It doesn't happen because they turn 30.
    Last edited by The Wise One; 06-27-2014 at 03:57 AM.

  4. #124
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    621
    Like
    12
    Liked 36 Times in 31 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Hall of Famers age well. Otherwise they wouldn't be Hall of Famers. The best players are usually the ones to be effective well into their thirties. The higher up the mountain you start, the longer you can ski before reaching the bottom. A 6 WAR player can lose 2 points due to age and still be a valuable player. A 2.5 WAR player cannot.




    Three of their four most valuable starters last season were under 29 years old in 2012, with Lackey being the sole exception. Peavy and Dempster combined for a net 0.4 WAR in 2013, which is pretty much Cole De Vries territory.

    Age, whether we like it or not, is a key factor in player performance prediction, especially after 30. Just because their are plenty of exceptions is no reason to disregard information that gives a relatively accurate estimate of regression in most players over thirty years old.
    1. Hawkins, Choate hall of famers?
    2 Pevey and Dempster a combined WAR of 0.4 in 2013? Recheck your stats. About a 3.7 or so FWAR combined

    Relative regression estimates are worthless, A player will regress, but nor necessarily between 31 and 35. Not at the same rate. There are so many other factors that come into play. Using age as anything other than a red flag to look hard at the player is shortsighted. The whole purpose of scouting and statistics is to ferret out the good player. Throw it away when they turn 30, they are going to regress. Doesn't make sense. Long term plans. Not every player on a roster is a long term plan. Most are not. Maybe the 84 Twins, but they even had Downtown Derrel Brown on the roster as well as only 4 quality pitchers,

  5. #125
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
    Posts
    2,813
    Like
    1,635
    Liked 1,674 Times in 836 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    1. Hawkins, Choate hall of famers?
    2 Pevey and Dempster a combined WAR of 0.4 in 2013? Recheck your stats. About a 3.7 or so FWAR combined

    Relative regression estimates are worthless, A player will regress, but nor necessarily between 31 and 35. Not at the same rate. There are so many other factors that come into play. Using age as anything other than a red flag to look hard at the player is shortsighted. The whole purpose of scouting and statistics is to ferret out the good player. Throw it away when they turn 30, they are going to regress. Doesn't make sense. Long term plans. Not every player on a roster is a long term plan. Most are not. Maybe the 84 Twins, but they even had Downtown Derrel Brown on the roster as well as only 4 quality pitchers,
    Pretty obvious that I was referring to Rivera, so I'm not sure why you're attempting to say otherwise. Yes, there are always non-star pitchers (like Choate and Breslow, many are lefty relievers) who age exceptionally well, but they're rare and fairly hard to spot in their early 30's.

    And no, Peavy and Dempster didn't contribute much to the Red Sox in 2013, and their .6 and -.2 WARs from ESPN really do add up to 0.4. Fangraphs puts them both at 1.3, and like ESPN, shows they contributed a small fraction of what the four best starters did. As I mentioned, three of those were under 30, including the two best, so the Red Sox are not an example of a team built to contend around a staff full of 30+ pitchers. They had some, but outside of Lackey and Uehara, they just didn't do much.

    Nobody is implying that 30+ pitchers' age regression is either precisely calculable or the only factor in evaluating them, or that the Twins should jettison all over-30 pitchers. People are primarily asking why a rebuilding team would stock up on over-30 non-star pitchers when history and stats tell us they're unlikely to contribute when the team is good again, especially when Ryan himself has acknowledged the high risk they incur.

  6. This user likes LaBombo's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (06-27-2014)

  7. #126
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,706
    Like
    862
    Liked 843 Times in 539 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by SwainZag View Post
    I honestly think there are some on this board that if they took over the team would DFA Correia, Burton, Deduno and Matty G tomorrow and call up 4 prospects just because the Twins are "rebuilding."

    Let's face it, the Twins probably aren't going to win this year.....BUT they are in the hunt still. Why just DFA and get rid of guys who have value and are pitching decent because "they are above the league average in age." Who cares? Everyone knows those 4 and above 30 players Willingham and possible Susuki will be gone next year all replaced by 20-somethings. What's the rush? Why not see how they do as a team and see if they have value at the deadline than just get rid of them?

    What if you call up May and Meyer and they both struggle? I really think some people think that couldn't happen. Let's look at Kyle Gibson.

    The whole age thing mystifies the hell out of me. We know the core of the future is in the minor leagues right now and that's the major part of the rebuild.
    Kyle Gibson gained valuable experience from pitching last year (and might have gained more if he had been called up when his arm was still fresh).

    As far as your being mystified....refer back to the pitcher aging curve chart. Playing the odds is only the most logical, and cost-effective thing to do here- it's how you better position yourself to have sufficient young, fresh and effective arms in their prime when all the young position players are established and ready to make their mark in the majors.

    It's not at all unreasonable to suggest that it's time to at least make a move to league average in pitcher age.... and make the move on from at least some of the guys who clearly aren't part of the future, and give a few looks at the guys, a la Gibson last year, who have a good chance to become a part of the future.
    Last edited by jokin; 06-27-2014 at 11:59 PM.

  8. #127
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,706
    Like
    862
    Liked 843 Times in 539 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    The Cardinals started yet another 22-year-old this evening against the Dodgers. Carlos Martinez had been a starter throughout his minor league career after signing as an undrafted FA from Puerto Rico in 2009.

    Martinez made one major league start out of 21 appearances in 2013, after being called up after 13 starts in AAA. Tonight's start for the Cards was his first in 2014- after 32 relief appearances. The Cardinals are showing the way as to how you rebuild, er...check that...skip the rebuild and instead, reload your pitching staff with a string of young arms at the ready when injuries or ineffectiveness forces the issue.

  9. #128
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The Cardinals started yet another 22-year-old this evening against the Dodgers. Carlos Martinez had been a starter throughout his minor league career after signing as an undrafted FA from Puerto Rico in 2009.

    Martinez made one major league start out of 21 appearances in 2013, after being called up after 13 starts in AAA. Tonight's start for the Cards was his first in 2014- after 32 relief appearances. The Cardinals are showing the way as to how you rebuild, er...check that...skip the rebuild and instead, reload your pitching staff with a string of young arms at the ready when injuries or ineffectiveness forces the issue.
    Just like the Twins have been doing along with every other team - forever. It seems pretty obvious that Meyer/May will be getting innings starting this year and/or next. Unfortunately, not every young pitcher works out. Here are the historical # of pitchers age 25 and under that pitched each season for the Twins the last 10 years:
    2013 - 7
    2012 - 5
    2011 - 6
    2010 - 4
    2009 - 8
    2008 - 5
    2007 - 9
    2006 - 7
    2005 - 4
    2004 - 7

Page 7 of 7 FirstFirst ... 567

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.