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Thread: Article: Jared Burton, the case for dismissal.

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I scanned the AL team list of pitcher's ages. The median number for pitchers over 30 is 5.5. The Twins are of course the oldest, with 10, Boston has 8, Texas has 7. Of the 3 current best teams in the AL, Toronto has 6, Oakland and Detroit, come in under the median number, with only 5.
    By accummulated WAR the Boston Old Farts are the best pitching team in the AL. Using a player's age and not performance as the determinant of what to with a player is poor. On 1-2 year contracts age should be insignificant. Unless you can't think of any other reason to diss on a player.

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  3. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by Bark's Lounge View Post
    Well, our first action would be to have them (Dairy Queen) change "Arctic Blast" back to "Mister Misty". It's a damn crime against humanity.
    Pro tip: Next time you go through the drive thru at a DQ, holler that you want a misty misty. if the person on the other end seems confused, keep hollering. Eventually they'll get someone on the horn that knows what a mister misty is, and you will get your sweet treat without suffering the indignity that comes with uttering the phrase, "Artic Blast."

    Artic Blast. What are we, shooting a skateboarding video or something?
    BYTO R.I.P.

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  5. #84
    No case to keep him. DFA him and bring up Tonkin or someone else from AAA who is deserving.

  6. #85
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    When did age become the be-all, end-all regarding baseball players? Did something need to fill the RBI void? And why are we lumping guys who are 35 in with guys who are 30, 31, and 32?

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  8. #86
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    When you are old and bad, that is a bad combination, and indicates you are not rebuilding for the next year, since you will either be even older, or relying on rookies. There was a good article on Fangraphs a couple of months ago on this topic. Also, it indicates your farm system is not succeeding at graduating guys, which of that is your main plan for getting better is a bad sign.

  9. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    By accummulated WAR the Boston Old Farts are the best pitching team in the AL. Using a player's age and not performance as the determinant of what to with a player is poor. On 1-2 year contracts age should be insignificant. Unless you can't think of any other reason to diss on a player.
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    When you are old and bad, that is a bad combination, and indicates you are not rebuilding for the next year, since you will either be even older, or relying on rookies. There was a good article on Fangraphs a couple of months ago on this topic. Also, it indicates your farm system is not succeeding at graduating guys, which of that is your main plan for getting better is a bad sign.
    Actually, notwithstanding your garbled declarative, using a pitcher's age is likely the most important determinant, all other things being equal. Feel free to defend the Twins, who are documented to be completely bucking the trend away from ever-increasing K% rates around the rest of baseball- and the graphs that show the fall-off for pitchers after 30 for injury, velocity and K-rates only exacerbates the Twins already untenable situation in that regard. (Note how the physical peak for arms with respect to velo and K/9 peaks around 25-26).

    The Red Sox are #1 in WAR, and it would totally be expected that as the defending WS champs, they would have the most veteran staff. But not surprisingly, they only have 7 pitchers over 30 to the Twins 10, and the Sox have 2 under 25, to the Twins Zero under 25- obviously, as Mikewantswins points out, someone in Boston is aware of the existing aging curve trends, and is developing and promoting the right way to reinvigorate the staff with youthful replacement arms- who are getting "on-the-job" training, ready to step in at a moment's notice.

    Last edited by jokin; 06-26-2014 at 09:42 AM.

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  11. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Beezer07 View Post
    When did age become the be-all, end-all regarding baseball players? Did something need to fill the RBI void? And why are we lumping guys who are 35 in with guys who are 30, 31, and 32?
    Exactly. 31 year old Glen Perkins seems to be doing OK. I don't think we win the World Series in '91 without 36 year old Jack Morris or the '87 World Series without 36 year old Bert Blyleven.

    Regarding Jarod Burton, he's been ok player during his time here, but he is trending in the wrong direction based on year over year (FIP, WHIP). I think he's on the bubble right now based on performance - not age. These things always work themselves out based on what they do on the field.

  12. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buck Nasty View Post
    Exactly. 31 year old Glen Perkins seems to be doing OK. I don't think we win the World Series in '91 without 36 year old Jack Morris or the '87 World Series without 36 year old Bert Blyleven.

    Regarding Jarod Burton, he's been ok player during his time here, but he is trending in the wrong direction based on year over year (FIP, WHIP). I think he's on the bubble right now based on performance - not age. These things always work themselves out based on what they do on the field.
    And adding those types of pitchers is what a team does that is one or two arms away from making a World Series run....last time I looked, rebuilding teams generally don't have the oldest pitching staff in baseball.

  13. #90
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    The issue isn't one or two old guys, it is that they don't have young guys at all. Hard to rebuild that way. Hard to manage your 25 man roster if all your RP are out of options. Hard to be ready for next year, or the year after. Also, anecdotes.
    Lighten up Francis....

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  15. #91
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    Also, is Perkins actually better than the median "closer" right now, or do we just think that?
    Lighten up Francis....

  16. #92
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    Age is important if all other factors are equal. There were few pitchers in their 20s that were as good as Morris or Blyleven were in their mid-30's. It's not a problem to have a 33 year old guy in your rotation - but there's Randy Johnson at 33 and then there's Kevin Correia. I'd still take the Hall Of Famer first.

    If it's a Kevin Correia - level 25 year old pitcher, I'd probably want to give the starts to the younger guy - he might still get better.

  17. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Also, is Perkins actually better than the median "closer" right now, or do we just think that?
    Almost right on schedule with the pitcher aging curves, Perk's FB velo has dropped ~2 MPH year over year.

  18. #94
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    btw, I checked FG, and Perkins is still a top 10 reliever.....so I might have been wrong about his abiliy (but still think he's not untouchable for a non-contendor like the Twins). I'm on the fence on Perkins, frankly.
    Lighten up Francis....

  19. #95
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    Perkins has a contract that is an asset - it's fairly team friendly assuming the wheels don't fall off. So that's both a reason to keep him and a reason to trade him sooner than later. I think he should be retained as long as he's still the best pitcher in the bullpen.

  20. #96
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    Guys go from crappy to god and back in the bullpen all the time. I'm OK with waiting until Burton and Guerrier go back to crappy before dumping them. Same with Correia. As long as he pitches like this, he's the best option. I look for May to replace Pino in the near term. Then let's see. There's no urgency on getting rid of guys just because they are relatively old.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  21. #97
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    Other than trying to get better this year and in the future......

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  23. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Other than trying to get better this year and in the future......
    It's just a difference of opinion. You and Jokin have some valid points. But the question is: Does the extra time in the minors help or hurt the top prospects? I think each player/situation is different. Bringing Hicks up early didn't seem to do him any good. Meyer is exciting, but he seems inconsistent at AAA and coming off arm trouble - maybe it's better to keep a lid on him vs. having him amped up for a few meaningless starts in the bigs. May seems ready and I'm pretty confident he'll get a shot this year. Tonklin was up earlier this year and got sent down based on performance. With the addition of Morales, it seems to me that they are going to run with it this year in a weak division. If that's the case - would you rather have vets or rookies playing?

  24. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buck Nasty View Post
    It's just a difference of opinion. You and Jokin have some valid points. But the question is: Does the extra time in the minors help or hurt the top prospects? I think each player/situation is different. Bringing Hicks up early didn't seem to do him any good. Meyer is exciting, but he seems inconsistent at AAA and coming off arm trouble - maybe it's better to keep a lid on him vs. having him amped up for a few meaningless starts in the bigs. May seems ready and I'm pretty confident he'll get a shot this year. Tonklin was up earlier this year and got sent down based on performance. With the addition of Morales, it seems to me that they are going to run with it this year in a weak division. If that's the case - would you rather have vets or rookies playing?
    Exactly. I want wins right now. Hopefully we can get closer in the next month and maybe add to rather than subtracting from the current roster. If not, sell. But it's too early to dump useful pieces when we are this close to contention.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  25. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buck Nasty View Post
    It's just a difference of opinion. You and Jokin have some valid points. But the question is: Does the extra time in the minors help or hurt the top prospects? I think each player/situation is different. Bringing Hicks up early didn't seem to do him any good. Meyer is exciting, but he seems inconsistent at AAA and coming off arm trouble - maybe it's better to keep a lid on him vs. having him amped up for a few meaningless starts in the bigs. May seems ready and I'm pretty confident he'll get a shot this year. Tonklin was up earlier this year and got sent down based on performance. With the addition of Morales, it seems to me that they are going to run with it this year in a weak division. If that's the case - would you rather have vets or rookies playing?
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Exactly. I want wins right now. Hopefully we can get closer in the next month and maybe add to rather than subtracting from the current roster. If not, sell. But it's too early to dump useful pieces when we are this close to contention.
    Exactly wrong, what's offered here will soon become obvious, it's a false choice.

    The AL averages 2.53 pitchers on the roster that are age 25 or younger. There is only one team that has zero arms under 25, of course, that is the Twins. Even a fringe contender should have some arms capable of contributing at the major league level who career-wise are just before the average physical peak for the typical pitcher.

    If you don't have that cycle in place, you end up in the situation the Twins find themselves in now...ie, up until very recently (we hope), they have either been unwilling, or unable, or both, to find, sign, develop and promote a recurring supply of young arms that can be called upon to reliably contribute at the major league level. This puts them in a dangerous downward cycle relative to the rest of the League, and explains a lot about why they are annually the worst team for K% and K/9.
    Last edited by jokin; 06-26-2014 at 12:07 PM.

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