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Thread: Article: Jared Burton, the case for dismissal.

  1. #61
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pleiss View Post
    Mostly I just can't stand Jared Burton.
    Well, the one thing I will give you, is that Burton seemed to have a Nathan-esque meltdown against the Yankees last summer, so hopefully we use Burton a little more discreetly in that long Yankees series coming up. But honestly Burton's doing good right now.

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    My reasoning is: let's hope we can catch lightning in a bottle! Look what Santana has done. His play has created an excitement we haven't experienced in years. With Burton and Guerrier, you know what to expect. Their ceiling is extremely low. My reaction when they enter the game is,"oh no, don't screw it up." Yes, Burton might have been good in 2012, but that's ancient history to me.

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    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Here's how I look at it.

    In Gardy's mind, the bullpen pecking order looks like this

    Perkins
    Fien
    Burton
    Guerrier
    Duensing
    Swarzak
    Theilbar
    Deduno

    If you dump Burton, then all those game breaking spots are going to fall to Duensing and Guerrier. Is that what we want?

    No no no no no. We had a decade of watching those two choke in big spots. Burton may not be the best setup man in the game but he is a better big-time pitcher than Gardy's two favorites.

    Guerrier Duensing Burton
    Leverage BB% K% OPS BB% K% OPS BB% K% OPS
    High Lvrge 6.01% 15.10% 0.741 7.73% 14.35% 0.787 8.83% 19.57% 0.644
    Medium Lvrge 11.84% 17.85% 0.671 6.86% 14.42% 0.752 9.46% 21.28% 0.741
    Low Lvrge 7.16% 15.50% 0.667 7.31% 17.06% 0.733 9.08% 20.39% 0.658
    Last edited by Willihammer; 06-24-2014 at 12:58 AM.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Kirby_Waved_At_Me's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I would say that I loved how Gardy played that situation. Knowing Perkins wasn't available, he let his best bullpen arm (Fien) pitch to the White Sox top hitters in the 8th inning, and then brought Burton in for the ninth inning.
    Ah, but Gardy was not managing the team at the time (he was ejected), so... we're both wrong?
    Do pitching changes fall to Anderson, or was it Molitor's call? I do think Fien is better than Burton, so it does stand to reason to use him against the opponent's best hitters in late innings. We agree there 100%.

  6. #65
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Kirby_Waved_At_Me's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Here's how I look at it.

    In Gardy's mind, the bullpen pecking order looks like this

    Perkins
    Fien
    Burton
    Guerrier
    Duensing
    Swarzak
    Theilbar
    Deduno

    If you dump Burton, then all those game breaking spots are going to fall to Duensing and Guerrier. Is that what we want?

    No no no no no. We had a decade of watching those two choke in big spots. Burton may not be the best setup man in the game but he is a better big-time pitcher than Gardy's two favorites.

    Guerrier Duensing Burton
    Leverage BB% K% OPS BB% K% OPS BB% K% OPS
    High Lvrge 6.01% 15.10% 0.741 7.73% 14.35% 0.787 8.83% 19.57% 0.644
    Medium Lvrge 11.84% 17.85% 0.671 6.86% 14.42% 0.752 9.46% 21.28% 0.741
    Low Lvrge 7.16% 15.50% 0.667 7.31% 17.06% 0.733 9.08% 20.39% 0.658
    yep - the other thing is the guy that replaces Burton (assuming that move is made) slides in somewhere between Deduno, Thielbar, and Swarzak - the new guy is not going to immediately be used in all the situations that Burton is being used now.

    I'm still on the fence about Burton - I think he's a useful guy to have on the team (no really) assuming that the team is contending for a playoff spot this year. If they fall out of the race, it is a roster space better spent on allowing a young arm to take his lumps.

  7. #66
    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby_Waved_At_Me View Post
    Ah, but Gardy was not managing the team at the time (he was ejected), so... we're both wrong?
    Do pitching changes fall to Anderson, or was it Molitor's call? I do think Fien is better than Burton, so it does stand to reason to use him against the opponent's best hitters in late innings. We agree there 100%.
    Or Steinbach, as he took over when Gardy was ejected. (At least I thought that's how it was.)

  8. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownTwinsFan View Post
    Or Steinbach, as he took over when Gardy was ejected. (At least I thought that's how it was.)
    Could have been Steinbach - I was at the game but was sitting far enough back that I wasn't sure who was in charge after Gardy left.

  9. #68
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Exactly how are burton and Guerrier bad players? Burton has been effective as of late and in 2012/2013, Matt has been effective for sure this year.

    And yes, currently the twins are contenders, if they find themselves 10 games out 5 weeks from now then I will likely change my tune.
    They are not "exactly" bad players, but they are approximating them by being the age where non-stars usually fall of the face of MLB, posting pretty bad peripherals, and filling the most easily replaceable position in baseball for a rebuilding franchise.

    As for the contention thing... well, the Twins are... the Twins. Until well after the break, team wins and losses matter about as much as pitcher wins and losses.

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  11. #69
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post

    As for the contention thing... well, the Twins are... the Twins. Until well after the break, team wins and losses matter about as much as pitcher wins and losses.
    Oh yeah, I forgot those April/May wins only count for .5 wins...

    I think it is clear the Twins have the SP to contend, the bullpen to contend and the hitting to potentially contend.

    Of course this all assumes the Twins remain relatively healthy down the stretch, but it isn't absurd to think the Twins could be within 5 or so games heading into Sept for both the Wild Card and/or Division.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


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    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Oh yeah, I forgot those April/May wins only count for .5 wins...
    Small samples of team wins and losses -yes, like in April and May- don't tell as much about the competitiveness of the team as individual player performances and run differential. It's common for a mediocre team to dramatically outperform its pythag for a month, or even two, but not for a whole season.

    It's great that the Twins are doing better than last year, and are more fun to watch. But the Twins simply didn't do enough in the off-season and haven't shown enough this season, for me at least, to sell the notion of contention.

    And if they're not in the race for real, that means that dead wood like mid-30's, 5.00+ xFip middle relievers need to be cleared out eventually. It's business, not personal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Small samples of team wins and losses -yes, like in April and May- don't tell as much about the competitiveness of the team as individual player performances and run differential. It's common for a mediocre team to dramatically outperform its pythag for a month, or even two, but not for a whole season.

    It's great that the Twins are doing better than last year, and are more fun to watch. But the Twins simply didn't do enough in the off-season and haven't shown enough this season, for me at least, to sell the notion of contention.

    And if they're not in the race for real, that means that dead wood like mid-30's, 5.00+ xFip middle relievers need to be cleared out eventually. It's business, not personal.
    Eventually? How about taking a couple (metaphorical) Thompson's to the whole lot, sooner rather than later, Tom Hagen. Yeah, "business is going to suffer" for a little while, but it's something they gots to do.

    10 pitchers over 30 on the 25-man/DL.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    10 pitchers over 30 on the 25-man/DL.
    Yeah. That's a concern on a .500-ish team coming off of three 90+ win seasons. It's bordering on a front office clean sweep after three 90+ loss seasons.

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  18. #73
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    I don't know that I buy in to the arguement that the Twins didn't do enough to contend this season. And I say this for 2 reasons:

    1) The team is, in fact, arguably, in contention for the central and possibly a wild card. Not saying they are a serious contender, but we have gone from three seasons of disappointing and downright awful to a fun team hovering around .500 and a chance for better with just a little more consistency, and, perhaps a softer schedule the second half if you believe prognosticators.

    2) While they may have fallen flat on their faces in a couple well hashed and re-hashed areas, they did make some serious moves. And other than simply breaking the bank to stock FA's up and down the roster, or trade off a multitude of quality and top prospects, what more could they have accomplished after three such awful seasons?

    Remember, we are in transition, we are rebuilding, and we are sooo much better this season. And despite the injury bummers to Sano and Buxton, the 50 game suspension or Rosario, and the lesser bummer of Meyer's recent struggles, we have a large group of youngsters still standing up to be noticed. And a couple of them are already on the roster.

    Again, I feel arguements about the pen are very similar to feelings about the rotation. That being we all want the kids to come up and do will and pave the way for the future. But at the same time, cutting a veteran loose who's performing at least adequately is difficult.

    For what it's worth, I believe Burton will be gone after this season sans a big second half. I believe Guerrier is also on borrowed time. Next season will see Perkins as closer, Duensing and Thielbar as the LH's. The Twins will spend Burton's money slot for another, younger, vet to team with Fien from the right side.

    That locks up 5 of what will once again be a 7 man pen. Now, Darnell (if not in the rotation), Johnson and possibly Ibarra and Thompson will provide some competition for a LH spot, but more than likely, they make the club only if the Twins decide to keep a 3rd LH in the pen. (Not counting Perkins because he's not a "LH" he's a closer regardless) The last two spots are open competition between Tonkin, Achter, Swarzak, and possibly each of Pino and Deduno. Further, Hamburger and Oliveras may be ready to challenge. Not sure yet about Johnson at New Britain, but he is having a darn good year.

    I think I'd feel good going in to ST next year with that collection. And a couple of the younger candidates should be up at some point this season to audition, even if it's September.

  19. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Yeah. That's a concern on a .500-ish team coming off of three 90+ win seasons. It's bordering on a front office clean sweep after three 90+ loss seasons.
    I scanned the AL team list of pitcher's ages. The median number for pitchers over 30 is 5.5. The Twins are of course the oldest, with 10, Boston has 8, Texas has 7. Of the 3 current best teams in the AL, Toronto has 6, Oakland and Detroit, come in under the median number, with only 5.

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  21. #75
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Interesting stat for sure. But a little perspective.

    Lets assume some easy speculation that Correia, Burton and Guerrier are gone next season. Let's also assume the Twins sign a solid veteran FA to replace Burton, as I have speculated. But let's just say he's 30 or 31. So we've lowered our "over 30" crowd by 2. So now we have 8 players at 30 or older.

    Do we dump Perkins because he's over 30? Do we dump Fien or Duensing because they are over 30? Or Nolasco? (OK, he's been a little disappointing so far this season, but he's still relatively young for a MLB SP) Deduno and Pino may also be gone, and probably will.

    Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Nolasco, and maybe a vet FA. That could easily be only 5 pitchers over 30. Not only does that out us in line with the rest of the league, but there is no rule that says a pitcher is done at 30.

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    Thread confusion.

    Happens to to me all the time when I'm driving.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I scanned the AL team list of pitcher's ages. The median number for pitchers over 30 is 5.5. The Twins are of course the oldest, with 10, Boston has 8####, Texas has 7. Of the 3 current best teams in the AL, Toronto has 6, Oakland and Detroit, come in under the median number, with only 5.
    #### Boston DFAs Capauno, Sox now down to 7 pitchers over 30.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Interesting stat for sure. But a little perspective.

    Lets assume some easy speculation that Correia, Burton and Guerrier are gone next season. Let's also assume the Twins sign a solid veteran FA to replace Burton, as I have speculated. But let's just say he's 30 or 31. So we've lowered our "over 30" crowd by 2. So now we have 8 players at 30 or older.

    Do we dump Perkins because he's over 30? Do we dump Fien or Duensing because they are over 30? Or Nolasco? (OK, he's been a little disappointing so far this season, but he's still relatively young for a MLB SP) Deduno and Pino may also be gone, and probably will.

    Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Nolasco, and maybe a vet FA. That could easily be only 5 pitchers over 30. Not only does that out us in line with the rest of the league, but there is no rule that says a pitcher is done at 30.
    No arguments that Correia, Burton and Guerrier should be gone next year....BUT.... the problem with ALL of them is why are they here this year?

    Deduno's and Pino's track records are indicative of the fact that they really have no business as anything but AAA filler/emergency depth.

    As is obvious if you look at all of the young arms 25 and under in the AL (KC has 5, Chicago and Detroit have 4)...most other teams would be using their innings for either helping their teams now, or for developmental time for guys that actually will be of help for them when they are more ready to contend.

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