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Thread: Yohan Pino to start Thursday / Deduno moved to pen

  1. #101
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Uhhh, why aren't these assets pitching and helping a team in the major leagues right now?
    Because they worked perfectly fine as stop gaps and were never viewed or counted on to do more. Im just pointing to the results, you blast the Twins for calling those guys up and giving them starts and I simply point out that they put up a 100 ERA+ which means they provided assets for the Twins while they were up in the majors. What they did or where they are now after the fact has no barring on the fact they gave the Twins good results in their limited time in the majors.

    If anything this proves the Twins know when to cut bait on pitchers like this, get some good early results out of them, then once the league figures them out/starts hitting em hard, cut em and bring up someone more long term or another stop gap.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  2. #102
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WLFINN View Post
    I'll say it here first....gotta throw in Duensing if you want anything of real value
    You could probably trade Duensing for Trout straight up if you also offered to take on the remaining $400 mil or so on Gary Matthews's contract.

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  4. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    At what point did I ever say that luck wasn't playing a part in Pino's numbers?

    At what point did I eve say Pino would bring back a "good" player in a trade? I just simply said if he succeeds in the MLB he would indeed have trade value.

    I think FIP is a better indicator of future success but it is far from perfect as well. You are distoring this debate, under no circumstance am I saying Pino is better for the Twins long term or more talented then Meyer/May etc. I am saying that he has earned his shot at a spot start on the Twins due to his ERA (which is some luck driven), WHIP (Some luck driven, but his k rate and bb rate help) and his great k/bb rate (is this luck as well?)

    If we are not getting a good player for Pino, why would we plan on bringing him up in hopes of trading him?

    If luck plays a role, why are you pointing towards ERA and definitively saying he has pitched the best?

    So FIP is the best predictor, yet we should be OK with promoting a 30 year old with the 4th best FIP on the AAA staff? How has Pino then earned a shot?

  5. #104
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    If we are not getting a good player for Pino, why would we plan on bringing him up in hopes of trading him?

    If luck plays a role, why are you pointing towards ERA and definitively saying he has pitched the best?

    So FIP is the best predictor, yet we should be OK with promoting a 30 year old with the 4th best FIP on the AAA staff? How has Pino then earned a shot?
    Sigh.

    You aren't bringing him up with the sole purpose of trying to trade him, you are bringing him up because it was his day in the rotation and is a superior option then DeDruno at this point.

    His ERA, WHIP and k/BB rate show that he has had the best results by far of anyone at AAA, at the end of the day results are what matter and win ball games.

    I answered your last question with my first answer and my second answer. May and Meyer will be up soon enough, I actually have some insight in to when Meyer will be brought up and why he isn't up yet.. but I am not going to waste a source arguing with you guys on a message board
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  6. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Sigh.

    You aren't bringing him up with the sole purpose of trying to trade him, you are bringing him up because it was his day in the rotation and is a superior option then DeDruno at this point.

    His ERA, WHIP and k/BB rate show that he has had the best results by far of anyone at AAA, at the end of the day results are what matter and win ball games.

    I answered your last question with my first answer and my second answer. May and Meyer will be up soon enough, I actually have some insight in to when Meyer will be brought up and why he isn't up yet.. but I am not going to waste a source arguing with you guys on a message board
    Forgive me, when someone says "he has trade value", I thought that meant you expected a decent player in return.

    The ERA line doesn't make sense. If you think FIP is the best projector, a players FIP over the last 3 months is what you should go off, no?

  7. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    His ERA, WHIP and k/BB rate show that he has had the best results by far of anyone at AAA, at the end of the day results are what matter and win ball games.
    What Pino has done in Rochester will win the Twins 0 ballgames. It is of literally no relevance at all.

    The only thing that matters is how well a pitcher will do in the Majors. There is no reason to think Pino is a better MLB option than the alternatives.

    Making false statements over and over does not increase their validity.

  8. #107
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Forgive me, when someone says "he has trade value", I thought that meant you expected a decent player in return.

    The ERA line doesn't make sense. If you think FIP is the best projector, a players FIP over the last 3 months is what you should go off, no?
    I didn't say it was the best I said it was better, but I also said its not perfect. Luck plays a role in FIP as well, take Trevor May for example: Do you think his 0.36 HR/9 rate is going to continue? Or do you attribute some of that to luck?
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  9. #108
    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Moderator note: Let's stop with the 'absolutes' of opinions here. We are all entitled to view this differently, but let's drop the rhetoric and referring to other poster's views as from 'outer space' or '3rd grade like' or whatever. Keep your differences respectful.

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  11. #109
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    What Pino has done in Rochester will win the Twins 0 ballgames. It is of literally no relevance at all.

    The only thing that matters is how well a pitcher will do in the Majors. There is no reason to think Pino is a better MLB option than the alternatives.

    Making false statements over and over does not increase their validity.
    They aren't false statements and frankly I think you should watch your tone a bit and be respectful of posters who you disagree with.

    The Twins needed a pitcher to replace DeDuno for tomorrows start, Pino on normal rest etc is a better option then May who just pitched Monday. Meyer is/was not an option to bring up at this point due to other factors.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  12. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownTwinsFan View Post
    Moderator note: Let's stop with the 'absolutes' of opinions here. We are all entitled to view this differently, but let's drop the rhetoric and referring to other poster's views as from 'outer space' or '3rd grade like' or whatever. Keep your differences respectful.
    There is an important distinction here: not all comments are statements of opinion.

    It is a fact that, in a small sample, defense-independent metrics are superior to ERA. It has been studied and proven statistically. It does not involve my "view" or "opinion." Likewise, it is a fact that high strand rates are not sustainable. My personal views have nothing to do with it at all.

    Indeed, I'm not convinced posters should be allowed to argue otherwise. If something is indisputable - meaning if it is equally certain to 2 + 2 =4 - then arguing against it seems like trolling.

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  14. #111
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Pino's FIP is actually higher than 3.69 that if you only consider his work as a starter. In 19 relief innings, 29 strikeouts. In 42 innings as a starter, 31 strikeouts, 11 walks. Completely ordinary.

    It is absolutely false to say he has better stats than May and Meyer. In small samples, fielding independent metrics are superior. And in those, Pino trails other Rochester starters.
    FIP is not a stat. It's a projection or predictor

    He has better stats than those other two.

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  16. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
    FIP is not a stat. It's a projection or predictor

    He has better stats than those other two.
    Stat, short for statistic. Noun.

    "a numerical fact or datum, especially one computed from a sample. "

    FIP is a stat.

  17. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Because they worked perfectly fine as stop gaps and were never viewed or counted on to do more. Im just pointing to the results, you blast the Twins for calling those guys up and giving them starts and I simply point out that they put up a 100 ERA+ which means they provided assets for the Twins while they were up in the majors. What they did or where they are now after the fact has no barring on the fact they gave the Twins good results in their limited time in the majors.

    If anything this proves the Twins know when to cut bait on pitchers like this, get some good early results out of them, then once the league figures them out/starts hitting em hard, cut em and bring up someone more long term or another stop gap.
    What is it about DeVries 5.42 FIP and now being completely out of baseball that can be classified as "good results"?.... and also, that says having him pitch any innings for a rebuilding team is somehow, some sort of "madskillz stop-gap strategizing" over the rest of baseball? There was nothing in his pedigree before his call-up that suggested he had a prayer of major league success. Why waste a moment of time on a 1 in 10,000 chance of sustained success? A good financial reason to deem this type of move a "success" is by pre-emptively cutting bait on guys like this? Really?

    And regarding the excuse you have used for not bringing up May, the Twins knew what was coming with Deduno and could have withheld May from his Monday night appearance.
    Last edited by jokin; 06-18-2014 at 01:05 PM.

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  19. #114
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    I don't agree about the small sample.

    FIP uses home run rate which needs a very large sample to stabilize.

    xFIP uses fly ball rate which does stabilize more quickly but assumes a league average home run rate.

    SIERRA is promising and adjusts for environment and thus needs a large sample.

    At this point, looking at anything beyond the basic rate statistics of strikeouts, walks, ground balls and fly balls in the 2014 data has little predictive value. For relievers, strike out rate may be the only data that is useful.

    The Twins really need to rely of the expertise of their minor league staff and scouts and their observations. There is little to learn from the numbers to help make decisions in a partial season.

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  21. #115
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    What is it about DeVries 5.42 FIP and now being completely out of baseball that can be classified as "good results"?
    He started a good number of games for the Twins and gave them a respectable ERA and ERA+ that is the definition of good results.

    His FIP is/was irrelevant, his results are relevant.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  22. #116
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    The point we are apparently missing, jokin, is that luck is relevant, while skill is irrelevant.

    Though DeVries career numbers are bad across the board. So that one is still hard to follow.
    Last edited by drivlikejehu; 06-18-2014 at 01:37 PM.

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  24. #117
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    The point we are apparently missing, jokin, is that luck is relevant, while skill is irrelevant.

    Though DeVries career numbers are bad across the board. So that one is still hard to follow.
    You really need to cool it with distorting everything I am saying, you are putting words in my mouth in order to make me look like some sort of idiot. Seriously, drop it.

    I said DeVries results for the Twins were satisfactory, results are ultimately what wins games. Whether it was 100% or 100% skill the fact is that DeVries giving the Twins an ERA+ of 100 while he was with them, was an asset at the time due to those results (regardless of how he got there)
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  25. #118
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    The point we are apparently missing, jokin, is that luck is relevant, while skill is irrelevant.

    Though DeVries career numbers are bad across the board. So that one is still hard to follow.

    No, the point that you are missing is that the Twins feel that Pino deserves this due to hard work.

    Per Gardenhire:

    “(Pino) pitched fantastic in spring training,” Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. “Locates the ball, has deception. Not overpowering at all: 87-88 miles an hour, big curveball, really changes speeds well, gets hitters out. That’s what baseball is all about. He’s been getting them out.”

    ,,,

    "He’s done it there at Triple-A now as well as anybody in that league,” Gardenhire said. “Can he do it here? Only one way to find out. We’re going to put him up here and see.”'



    Nobody is saying he'll find great success at the ML level. But he has had enough success at AAA to warrant the OPPORTUNITY to show what he can do at the major league level.

    And frankly, to deny him that opportunity based upon predictors, would be unfair.

    Personally, I'm wishing him well. Maybe he'll defy the odds and do better than the predictors would indicate. Maybe the predictors will be dead on and he'll be an abysmal failure.

    Predictors and statistics, however you may want to categorize or define them, are interesting but I'd like to see actual results.

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  27. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    You really need to cool it with distorting everything I am saying, you are putting words in my mouth in order to make me look like some sort of idiot. Seriously, drop it.

    I said DeVries results for the Twins were satisfactory, results are ultimately what wins games. Whether it was 100% or 100% skill the fact is that DeVries giving the Twins an ERA+ of 100 while he was with them, was an asset at the time due to those results (regardless of how he got there)

    I am not trying to distort your words either, but saying someone has the best stats based on ERA, etc., then acknowledging FIP is the best predictor, yet defending the move based on ERA, etc. seems off base to me.

    If FIP is the best predictor, we should go off of FIP. Plain and simple. Let's not have different goal-posts. Define what is most important, use that as a tool in decision making.

  28. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post



    No, the point that you are missing is that the Twins feel that Pino deserves this due to hard work.

    Per Gardenhire:

    “(Pino) pitched fantastic in spring training,” Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. “Locates the ball, has deception. Not overpowering at all: 87-88 miles an hour, big curveball, really changes speeds well, gets hitters out. That’s what baseball is all about. He’s been getting them out.”

    ,,,

    "He’s done it there at Triple-A now as well as anybody in that league,” Gardenhire said. “Can he do it here? Only one way to find out. We’re going to put him up here and see.”'



    Nobody is saying he'll find great success at the ML level. But he has had enough success at AAA to warrant the OPPORTUNITY to show what he can do at the major league level.

    And frankly, to deny him that opportunity based upon predictors, would be unfair.

    Personally, I'm wishing him well. Maybe he'll defy the odds and do better than the predictors would indicate. Maybe the predictors will be dead on and he'll be an abysmal failure.

    Predictors and statistics, however you may want to categorize or define them, are interesting but I'd like to see actual results.
    Leave it up to Ronnie. Hard work over a predictor of future success. We are in good hands guys. Pino is going to "battle his tail off", I can just tell.

    In Gardy's defense, Rudy did get a sack on that one play.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 06-18-2014 at 01:58 PM.

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