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Thread: Jon Jay

  1. #1
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Jon Jay

    Never saw a thread on here, but apparently the Twins have some interest in Cardinals CF Jon Jay.

    Not the sexiest player alive, but Jay is a very consistent CF who would instantly improve this team at their weakest position.

    He will give you close to a .290 BA with a .750 OPS, and his CF defense, while not spectacular rates somewhere close to the league average for CF.

    Assuming the price is right, I imagine you have to explore bringing him in? Best case scenario is he preforms well this year, and can always be traded out again once Hicks/Buxton are ready for the position full time. Additionally he hits enough where he wouldn't kill your team in LF/RF for a time as well.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  2. #2
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    Yeah but St Louis won't give him away and I don't really want to give up anything of real value for him.

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    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    He was talked about in another thread here.
    Last edited by ChiTownTwinsFan; 06-05-2014 at 10:28 AM.

  5. #4
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Where did you hear? I can't find anything on MLBTR. Would love to swing a deal though.

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    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Fein and a prospect seems like a lot to give up for him. I guess that serves as a reminder as to just how valuable a decent CF is. This really was a failure of the front office. Hicks needs to be playing every day in AAA, and I'm not sure Fuld is an every day player. At this point, I'd strongly consider DFAing Guerrier and adding some CF to the 40 man to act as a place holder to get Santana more reps at SS and Hicks some time in AAA.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Fein and a prospect seems like a lot to give up for him. I guess that serves as a reminder as to just how valuable a decent CF is. This really was a failure of the front office. Hicks needs to be playing every day in AAA, and I'm not sure Fuld is an every day player. At this point, I'd strongly consider DFAing Guerrier and adding some CF to the 40 man to act as a place holder to get Santana more reps at SS and Hicks some time in AAA.
    I really think it depends on the prospect. Fien and a C prospect? Get it done. THe real question would be what to do with Jay after this season.

  8. #7
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    I think he'd be a good pickup and not just if he's free. Stuff that's cheap or free usually turns out to be worth just that. He has a few years of control and would improve what is a poor outfield defensively.
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Yeah but St Louis won't give him away and I don't really want to give up anything of real value for him.
    This is how I feel. On a team that is in flux, giving up pieces to shore up a temporary need seems foolish to me.

    Centerfield will not be a problem next season unless Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton collapse. The likelihood of that happening is pretty low.

  10. #9
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    This is how I feel. On a team that is in flux, giving up pieces to shore up a temporary need seems foolish to me.

    Centerfield will not be a problem next season unless Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton collapse. The likelihood of that happening is pretty low.
    It depends on what the exact ask is. As long as it isn't over the top I think you have to consider making the deal, as mentioned, you can always turn around and trade him again (for a similar package) a year away if Buxton etc are ready. Or you can have him play a pretty solid LF for you with Buxton in CF if Hicks totally bombs out.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  11. #10
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    It depends on what the exact ask is. As long as it isn't over the top I think you have to consider making the deal, as mentioned, you can always turn around and trade him again (for a similar package) a year away if Buxton etc are ready. Or you can have him play a pretty solid LF for you with Buxton in CF if Hicks totally bombs out.
    Sure, if the asking price is reasonable and you feel you can flip Jay next season for similar talent, you do that... But the Cards are a very well-run organization and they're smart as hell over there. They're not going to give up Jay for a price you can trade him away at next season. They'll probably start the bidding at Jose Berrios and fall back to Kennys Vargas-level talent (plus Fien) and not budge below that point.

    The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.

  12. #11
    Senior Member Triple-A whydidnt's Avatar
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    I think the Buxton injury changes things a bit. It's starting to look like a lost year for him, which pushes his debut back to late 2015, or 2016. Time for the Twins to start acting like a Major League team and get good major league players now. They can worry about what to do with Jay and CF if/when they actually have someone ready to play CF in the majors everyday. Of course it depends on the price, but a decent reliever and low level prospect won't do much long term damage....though I'm not sure I would include Fein.

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    Since they refuse to use them, I would think a bunch of AAA relievers and starters are available.

  14. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Sure, if the asking price is reasonable and you feel you can flip Jay next season for similar talent, you do that... But the Cards are a very well-run organization and they're smart as hell over there. They're not going to give up Jay for a price you can trade him away at next season. They'll probably start the bidding at Jose Berrios and fall back to Kennys Vargas-level talent (plus Fien) and not budge below that point.

    The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.
    Pino and Levi Michael/Polanco for Jay. Book it.

  15. #14
    Senior Member Triple-A whydidnt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Sure, if the asking price is reasonable and you feel you can flip Jay next season for similar talent, you do that... But the Cards are a very well-run organization and they're smart as hell over there. They're not going to give up Jay for a price you can trade him away at next season. They'll probably start the bidding at Jose Berrios and fall back to Kennys Vargas-level talent (plus Fien) and not budge below that point.

    The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.
    I disagree. He is not that good and is taking up space on their roster. If the price is truly Berrios or Vargas, then I say no way, but if that's the case the Cardinals will be burning a roster spot on the guy all year for nothing. He's not a top flight starter and the league knows that.

  16. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Sure, if the asking price is reasonable and you feel you can flip Jay next season for similar talent, you do that... But the Cards are a very well-run organization and they're smart as hell over there. They're not going to give up Jay for a price you can trade him away at next season. They'll probably start the bidding at Jose Berrios and fall back to Kennys Vargas-level talent (plus Fien) and not budge below that point.

    The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.
    Well I certainly didn't say it was do-able, if I were the Twins though I'd be hard pressed to give up anything more than that with the current OF in the system.

  17. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNTwinsFan View Post
    Pino and Levi Michael/Polanco for Jay. Book it.
    Michael and Polanco aren't exactly interchangable as far as prospects go. I'm guessing hardly anyone here would want to give up Polanco in this deal while nearly everyone here would give up Michael without hesitation.

  18. #17
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whydidnt View Post
    I disagree. He is not that good and is taking up space on their roster. If the price is truly Berrios or Vargas, then I say no way, but if that's the case the Cardinals will be burning a roster spot on the guy all year for nothing. He's not a top flight starter and the league knows that.
    Jon Jay is roughly a 10 WAR player in five years of service time. The Cards are rightly going to ask a significant price for him. He's Denard Span-lite and the Twins got Alex Meyer for Span.

    If I was the Cards, I'd start at Berrios and work down from there, but not very far down from there.

    It's going to take real talent to get Jay, just as it took considerable talent to get Span. Maybe not a top 100 prospect but it's going to take more than Fien and a C prospect.

  19. #18
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    The best part about Jay is the nickname shown on his b-r.com page: The Federalist.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    The offer of Casey Fien and a C prospect is laughable. It's going to take a lot more than that to get Jay.
    A lot? Nonsense. I just fired up Out Of The Park 15 and got him for Florimon, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz... and of course Duensing.

  20. #19
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    A lot? Nonsense. I just fired up Out Of The Park 15 and got him for Florimon, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz... and of course Duensing.
    Hah! It's really easy to vet a trade.

    Let's pretend the Twins have Jon Jay on their roster. A team offers them Casey Fien and Levi Michael in trade.

    Do you make that trade? No? Then neither will the Cardinals, who might be the most well-run organization in Major League Baseball.

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  22. #20
    Senior Member Triple-A whydidnt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Jon Jay is roughly a 10 WAR player in five years of service time. The Cards are rightly going to ask a significant price for him. He's Denard Span-lite and the Twins got Alex Meyer for Span.

    If I was the Cards, I'd start at Berrios and work down from there, but not very far down from there.

    It's going to take real talent to get Jay, just as it took considerable talent to get Span. Maybe not a top 100 prospect but it's going to take more than Fien and a C prospect.
    Span's WAR in 5 years with the Twins was 17.8, and coming off of a 5.0 WAR season, on a very different realm. I don't agree with the comparison at all and I think at this point Berrios is comparable to where Meyer was when the Twins dealt for him. When Jay is dealt, we'll see, but the Cards aren't getting anything close to Berrios or Vargas for him.

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