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Thread: Jon Jay

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by whydidnt View Post
    Span's WAR in 5 years with the Twins was 17.8, and coming off of a 5.0 WAR season, on a very different realm. I don't agree with the comparison at all and I think at this point Berrios is comparable to where Meyer was when the Twins dealt for him. When Jay is dealt, we'll see, but the Cards aren't getting anything close to Berrios or Vargas for him.
    I just don't see how getting a decidedly mediocre CFer for a .500-at-best team is worth a prospect of Meyer's or Berrios's value.

  2. #22
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whydidnt View Post
    I think at this point Berrios is comparable to where Meyer was when the Twins dealt for him.
    No, he's not. Meyer was a consensus top-50 prospect in all of baseball and is a beast of a human being at 6'9", 220 lbs.

    Berrios might not crack the top 50 this season even if he continues pitching like he has this season. Despite his nasty stuff, he's still a little guy and little guys often struggle at higher levels of MiLB, much less MLB.

    And even if Berrios is as projectable as Meyer (and he's not), that's still where I'd start the bidding if I was the Cardinals.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Prospects are prospects and certainly not sure things. To always worry that bringing in a good/decent player that would improve your team is somehow going to muck up the entire flow of great players coming up makes no sense. If prospects were sure things Joe Benson and Hicks would be playing every day and we wouldn't even need to talk about Jay.
    Get as many good players as you can, figure it out as you go. Having an extra good player is much better than playing shorthanded for a half season or more.
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  4. #24
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    I think the Cardinals will have a hard time moving him because as mentioned several times, they will ask for a lot. However it seems to me that the players value still comes more from perception that from numbers.

    The perception of Jay is that he is losing his job to a rookie and while he can play CF, he's better in the corners where his bat doesn't profile as well. I don't think the Cardinals will get a fair offer they like and Jay will stay.

  5. #25
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    If we're going after a St Louis outfielder, let's go after the younger guys stuck behind Taverez like Randall Grichuk or James Ramsey.

  6. #26
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    Prospects are prospects and certainly not sure things. To always worry that bringing in a good/decent player that would improve your team is somehow going to muck up the entire flow of great players coming up makes no sense. If prospects were sure things Joe Benson and Hicks would be playing every day and we wouldn't even need to talk about Jay.
    Sure, that'd make sense if the Twins weren't in the middle of a rebuild and didn't have three young centerfielders, any of which may take the CF reins in Minnesota in 2015.

    Giving up a guy like Vargas for a guy like Jay who will almost certainly be supplanted by one or more of Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton as early as Opening Day 2015 doesn't make a lot of sense. The Twins need guys like Vargas as either trade bait or to fill a position as early as next season, they shouldn't consider trading him in a season where they almost certainly won't make the playoffs.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Centerfield will not be a problem next season unless Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton collapse. The likelihood of that happening is pretty low.
    Um... Hicks has already collapsed, right? In terms of counting on him as a MLB starter in 2015, at least.

    The other two guys haven't had that chance to fail yet, but neither has played CF above A-ball yet either. And one of them can't even swing a bat at the moment.

    I guess it is still possible one of those guys could win the MLB CF job in spring training 2015, but it's not looking terribly likely at the moment. So acquiring another CF somehow should be a priority.

    I agree that trade might not be the best way, though -- it would help earlier than waiting for a free agent this offseason, and immediately lessen our dependence on Hicks/Santana, but it could cost more. Do we have any trade assets that aren't key pieces, other than bullpen guys or already failed prospects? Maybe not...

  8. #28
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    I guess it is still possible one of those guys could win the MLB CF job in spring training 2015, but it's not looking terribly likely at the moment. So acquiring another CF somehow should be a priority.

    I agree that trade might not be the best way, though -- it would help earlier than waiting for a free agent this offseason, and immediately lessen our dependence on Hicks/Santana, but it could cost more. Do we have any trade assets that aren't key pieces, other than bullpen guys or already failed prospects? Maybe not...
    For the record, I'm not against pursuing a CF. I think it's a prudent decision. I simply do not believe the Twins currently have the open pieces to make such a trade without hampering their real goal, and that's sustained success from 2015-2020.

    If the Twins can get a CF whose contract expires this season and doesn't cost more than Levi Michael or someone of his ilk, I'd be all for it. Then they can either extend that CF or pick up a stop-gap this offseason.

    Jon Jay is going to cost more than Levi Michael. A lot more than Levi Michael.

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  10. #29
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    You don't have to look at the metrics if you trust the Cardinals assessment of his defense. Look at the Cardinals decision to replace him with Peter Bourjos. Bourjos is a poor hitter and has more starts in center in spite of an OPS over 100 points less than Jay. It has to be the glove.

    I don't think the Cardinals feel Jay has enough defense to be an every day CF or enough bat to be an every day corner OF. He is in his best role now of 4th OF.

    I wouldn't trade a good starting pitching or up the middle prospect for him. I might sell high on Vargas, but I would want to see what happens when Fuld comes back. Jay might be a one win improvement over Fuld, the Twins really need to be contenders to give up any significant prospect.

  11. #30
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    I am going to go with a proposal of Max Keplar and Deunsing for Jon Jay. that seems fair to me or if St Louis would rather go with Darnel Logan for depth I could do that too.

  12. #31
    It's hard to gauge what kind of value the Cards really expect for Jay. But here's the question — where do the Twins think they are? If they legitimately think they can go over .500 in 2014, they should consider Jay (but it will cost more than we think it should). If the Twins are a year away from contending, then you wait. If Jay is a corner OF with Buxton around, the Twins don't need him.

  13. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    or if St Louis would rather go with Darnel Logan for depth I could do that too.
    Darnel Logan? Can we trade alter egos? That opens up some possibilities...

  14. #33
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Buy low on Bourjos!!!!!

  15. #34
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    I would rather trade Logan for Corriea

  16. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Buy low on Bourjos!!!!!
    The cardinals like him better in CF. Why would they trade him and have to play Jay full

  17. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The Cardinals like him better in CF. He has a much better May. Who would the Cards have to at in CF?
    Well, they'd play Jay. From the way Bourjos has been played this season I think you could make a case he's deep in the doghouse.

  18. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Well, they'd play Jay. From the way Bourjos has been played this season I think you could make a case he's deep in the doghouse.
    OK. He did have a terrible April with the bat and continued getting starts. They could have handed the job to Jay full time. If they didn't after his April, I am not sure why they would now unless somebody have them a great offer for Bourjos.

  19. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    OK. He did have a terrible April with the bat and continued getting starts. They could have handed the job to Jay full time. If they didn't after his April, I am not sure why they would now unless somebody have them a great offer for Bourjos.
    You're right that things have turned the corner, I'm just saying there are reasons to think they both might be available.

  20. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    For the record, I'm not against pursuing a CF. I think it's a prudent decision. I simply do not believe the Twins currently have the open pieces to make such a trade without hampering their real goal, and that's sustained success from 2015-2020.

    If the Twins can get a CF whose contract expires this season and doesn't cost more than Levi Michael or someone of his ilk, I'd be all for it. Then they can either extend that CF or pick up a stop-gap this offseason.

    Jon Jay is going to cost more than Levi Michael. A lot more than Levi Michael.
    Yeah, we had this discussion when it first heated up about the Twins interest in Jay. I would be stunned if the Twins tried to go head to head in negotiation with the Cards out of sheer CF desperation.

    Here's the list of expiring or option-related contracts for CF:

    Emilio Bonifacio (30)
    Colby Rasmus (28)
    Grady Sizemore (32)
    Denard Span (31) – $9MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Chris Young (31)


    See a deal in there? The 2 names that stand out are Rasmus and Span. I can envision scenarios that might work for both teams, without mortgaging the Twins future.

  21. #40
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    It'd be all sorts of hilarious if the Twins somehow ended up with Span again.

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