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Thread: Official 2014 Draft Day Thread, Day 1

  1. #81
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    Can someone shed light on what would be the disappointment in drafting Nola? I liked his numbers, stuff seems good (from reports), and he seems to be a fast mover with #2 upside and a higher floor than the Kolek's of the world. I'm all for Gordon or Nola, assuming the big 3 are off the board by the Twin's pick.

  2. #82
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    If we want to compare hitters and pitchers over a full season, why not just use WAR.

    A quick look at the top 30 pitchers and hitters last season by fWAR shows that the hitters averaged about 25% more WAR. So a good hitter is more valuable.

    If we want to look at a single series or playoffs I would agree with John that WPA would be the place to start. I'm not sure where to get a good handle on this data but I would imagine that pitchers would come out a little ahead since the aces often pitch 3 times in a 7 game series.

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    Ok, here we go:

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...-added-leaders

    So pitchers seem more valuable in the playoffs.

    At any rate, a team needs both to make it all the way to the World Series and if you rate regular season and post season equally they are probably pretty close to equally valuable.

    So yeah, let's just hope the Twins draft the player that ends up having the best career.

  4. #84
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    On Nola, you covered why some would be disappointed, lower ceiling than some others, probably. Most value ceiling over floor at pick five.

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    Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd
    The Carlos Rodon bonus demand hammer has dropped. I'm told its $6 million plus. Aiken heavy favorite to go 1-1 now.
    Till I Collapse

  6. #86
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    I'd sign him for whatever amount, almost.....he's a future Ace. And could start in A ball and make high A this year.....not sure what $6MM would do to the Twins' pool.....
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Yes, John, I realized after the last post we may be too specific on one topic......either way, I would be happy. I admit Kolek makes me nervous, seems like a guy needing a ton of coaching, and a one trick pony.
    It is a pretty awesome trick though.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    It is a pretty awesome trick though.
    it is, I wouldn't be mad if they took him, but I also would not be shocked if he doesn't work out of being worth a top 20 pick at all.....
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #89
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    Cubs boards are all saying Gordon at 4, based on who's on the Cub's short list and who they like, but they're as informed as we are and don't want the Cubs to go with a under-slot pick.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by crapforks View Post
    Can someone shed light on what would be the disappointment in drafting Nola? I liked his numbers, stuff seems good (from reports), and he seems to be a fast mover with #2 upside and a higher floor than the Kolek's of the world. I'm all for Gordon or Nola, assuming the big 3 are off the board by the Twin's pick.
    Nola is a very polarizing prospect. At the beginning of the year there were questions if he was going to be a SPer or RPer because of his size/unorthodox delivery. His college performance this year has shown that he will be a future starter but the question is how good of one. There is no question he should move quickly, experts have been wrong on this before though, but does he project to be a #2 or #3? Experts are split on his try ceiling.

    If you believe Nola's ceiling is a safe quick to the bigs #2 then he is deserving of the #5 pick. If you believe he is a future #3 then the argument can be made that with the #5 pick in the draft you should be aiming for someone with more ceiling. Obviously we won't know for years if Nola or any other prospect drafted in the top 5-10 were worthy of their drafted spot.

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    gunnarthor (06-05-2014)

  12. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I'd sign him for whatever amount, almost.....he's a future Ace. And could start in A ball and make high A this year.....not sure what $6MM would do to the Twins' pool.....
    My quick, back-of-the-envelope calculations makes it seem like the Twins would need to save $1.4 million from their later picks in order to not lose their #1 pick next year.

    MN Total Pool: $7.52M
    #5 pick allocation: $3.85M
    Remaining picks: $3.67M

    $6.00M
    - $3.85M
    -------------
    $2.14M additional needed to sign Rodon.

    They can go an addition $750K without losing a pick.

    $2.14M
    - $0.75M
    -------------
    $1.39M The amount they need to save on their remaining 9 picks.

    The is roughly 40% of their pool dedicated to those picks.
    Last edited by markos; 06-05-2014 at 02:56 PM. Reason: added more info.

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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    My quick, back-of-the-envelope calculations makes it seem like the Twins would need to save $1.4 million from their later picks in order to not lose their #1 pick next year.
    Which means they might draft one of us in the 2nd round and pay us in Arby's coupon's.

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    maxisagod (06-05-2014)

  17. #94
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    Crawford's draft chat is also up:

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/l...-chat-400-est/

  18. #95
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    Ok, that baseball prospectus chat is great
    Lighten up Francis....

  19. #96
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    Can you tell me about Nick Gordon's offensive potential?
    Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Potential plus hit tool, maybe better depending on how you view the added strength this spring, with a chance for average power if he gets a little more loft in the barrel. Could sacrifice some average for power, or pump the hit in exchange for closer to 40/45 pop on the 20-80 scale. Solid range of outcomes and has the feel for the game and make-up to take in instruction and reach that potential.

  20. #97
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    I like this one....

    Shawnykid23 (CT): How would you compare the top 3 arms in this year's draft to last year's? Basically, ignoring MILB performance, only coming into the draft how would you rank Appel, Gray, Stewart, Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek?
    Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I'd strike Kolek and add Nola as third best arm in this class. Then give me Gray, Aiken, Rodon, Appel, Nola, Stewart. I could be talked into arranging the last three in basically any order. Also I could be talked into Aiken over Gray without much effort. How's that for hedging my bets?
    Lighten up Francis....

  21. #98
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    Flash (Texas): Does Dee Gordon's long awaited development into a major league regular have any impact whatsoever on Nick's draft status? Does it give teams a little more to dream on, now that Dee looks like (for two months, anyway), a solid major league 2B.
    Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Their games aren't really similar, nor is their physical makeup, so it's unlikely the developmental path of one will much affect opinions on the other. Nick is a more refined player is more physical than his brother, with a lot less speed.
    Lighten up Francis....

  22. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Which means they might draft one of us in the 2nd round and pay us in Arby's coupon's.
    Arby's! Their food taste more like paper money than you know... food.

  23. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by crapforks View Post
    Can someone shed light on what would be the disappointment in drafting Nola? I liked his numbers, stuff seems good (from reports), and he seems to be a fast mover with #2 upside and a higher floor than the Kolek's of the world. I'm all for Gordon or Nola, assuming the big 3 are off the board by the Twin's pick.

    The disappointment I think stems from his (seemingly) limited upside compared to others available. Obviously - all things equal - you want to pick the guy with #1 upside over #2 upside, and I think that many posters here see other candidates as having that #1 upside that Nola lacks.

    I look at it as a "well, if you're all out of lobster, I guess I'll have the filet" situation. Nobody is disappointed that we're not drafting Aiken because we all know that we won't get him. I guess what it comes down to is that "disappointment" is relative. I'd put Nola in my minor league system in a heartbeat. I just wouldn't do it if it meant I couldn't have my top choice.

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