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Thread: Expectations for Brian Dozier

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Expectations for Brian Dozier

    I am glad that we'll finally get a look at the much-hyped prospect in the majors. If his position teeters on Morneau's health, it is fairly likely that he will be with the club for a good amount of time. What are are your predictions for Dozier following his callup? After a month, I think his slash line will be about .245/.305/.380 with a pair of dingers and 3 or 4 SB. Quite a few errors also seem likely given his pretty unflattering fielding percentages as a minor league shortstop.

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    Ok. Here are my expectations for this season in one line:

    - he will put at least the same numbers that Jamey Carroll would have put both on offense and defense.

    Also I think that he will better the career slash line of the single short stop in the Twins Hall of Fame (.254/.302/.382 - yes Gagne was THAT bad). And I think that Gagne is about the floor as far as I see it for Dozier.

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Jamey Carroll is simply masterful on defense. He has a .987% Fielding in his career at the most difficult position in the field. If Dozier were to replicate that I would be in a state of euphoria and would proceed by pinching myself until my skin turns purple. As long he doesn't go the Plouffe route with his glove, it can't be too bad. Offensively, I agree. I think he'll be a little more valuable than Carroll. Enough so that it evens out.

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    How about Jason Bartlett for a comp? They have similar skill sets and Jason Bartlett was also 25 in his rookie year. His slash line that year was .241/.316/.335 in 252 plate appearances.

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Bartlett was actually one of the first names to come to mind. Hopefully he can produce a little more offensively, because like I said, I don't trust him at SS.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    I'm a huge fan of Brian Dozier, and he is as classy as it gets within an organization full of classy people.

    I have pretty moderate expectations for 2012. I really think that if he can post a .670-.680 OPS this season (Maybe .260/.320/.360), it would be a solid start, assuming he plays solid defense.

    I think his ceiling is about an .800 OPS. Definitely a guy you can be happy starting through the arbitration years.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    Bartlett was actually one of the first names to come to mind. Hopefully he can produce a little more offensively, because like I said, I don't trust him at SS.
    I've been told by a few people that several errors that shold have been easily picked up by an average 1B. I've never hard a negative thing about his defense as far as making routine plays.

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    Honestly, I would be amazed and incredibly happy if he actually stays at the major league level for the rest of the year, either as a starter or a bench guy.

    What I expect is that he'll be slightly better on defense than Plouffe, and be EXTREMELY streaky at the plate. Like, he'll bet .600 with a bunch of runs his first four games, and then strike out for a week, and then hit again.

    Barring an injury to Valencia, Carroll, or Casilla, I think he'll end up back down in AAA when Morneau comes back unless the Twins feel he's doing good enough to risk losing Plouffe on waivers. It will help his case immensely if Eric K (or whoever the next OF kid that comes along) does well enough to keep Plouffe out of the OF entirely.

  9. #9
    I'm excited to see Dozier play. I'm new to Baseball fandom -- can someone remind me what the implications are of the date of this call-up on Dozier's contract? I know there is a significant date related to how long the Twins control him, but don't remember what it is or why.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OrangeDisk View Post
    I'm excited to see Dozier play. I'm new to Baseball fandom -- can someone remind me what the implications are of the date of this call-up on Dozier's contract? I know there is a significant date related to how long the Twins control him, but don't remember what it is or why.
    By waiting until now to call up Dozier, the team will keep him under control for the extra season. (A player needs 6 years of service time to be a free agent. If Dozier stays up from now til then, he'll be a free agent at the end of the 2018 season instead of the 2017 season if they had started the season with him) HOwever, the Super 2 line is typically in early-to-mid June, so it is likely, again, if he stays up the whole time, that Dozier will be Super-2 arbitration-eligible after the 2014 season. IF they had waited 3-4 weeks, he wouldn't have been arbitration-eligible until after the 2015 season.)

    Hope that helps.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I've been told by a few people that several errors that shold have been easily picked up by an average 1B. I've never hard a negative thing about his defense as far as making routine plays.
    I have watched about half of Rochester's games this year and you are right Seth. Just the other day he was deep in the hole and made a long throw to first. It was a one hopper to the first baseman that bounced about three feet in front of the first baseman and was 6-8" off the ground when it got to Rizotti's glove. He didn't make the pick, a pick even mediocre first basemen should have made. Dozier got the error on a play!

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    I would be ecstatic if Dozier ends up having a career as good as Greg Gagne's. I'm sure Dozier would be too. He'll retire a wealthy man if he does. He's a little behind GG right now as, by Dozier's age, GG was in his third season as starting shortstop for the Twins. I look forward to the World Series championships too.

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    My guess is he will struggle in the field and struggle at the plate, like most any rookie would.

    He's far from a sure thing.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    By waiting until now to call up Dozier, the team will keep him under control for the extra season. (A player needs 6 years of service time to be a free agent. If Dozier stays up from now til then, he'll be a free agent at the end of the 2018 season instead of the 2017 season if they had started the season with him) HOwever, the Super 2 line is typically in early-to-mid June, so it is likely, again, if he stays up the whole time, that Dozier will be Super-2 arbitration-eligible after the 2014 season. IF they had waited 3-4 weeks, he wouldn't have been arbitration-eligible until after the 2015 season.)

    Hope that helps.
    Are the Twins REALLY playing the Super-2 arbitration game with BRIAN DOZIER? That made me laugh/throw up in mouth a little bit. Dozier's about to turn 25 and he hasn't seen a game in the bigs yet. This is not "prodigy" or elite-level prospect like Justin Upton, Evan Longoria, or Hosmer, where you KNOW the guy will be in the majors at some capacity in 5 years. Dozier could be terrible. But if there's a chance he can help this team now, even marginally, then they really should have been looking at guys like this last September in the majors BEFORE going out and signing Jamey Carroll to 2 years.

    Also, I think it should be noted that for everyone who loved the Carroll signing (including some very respected bloggers), the guy is now essentially being benched only a month into the season, and it wasn't even because of his defense.

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    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    Are the Twins REALLY playing the Super-2 arbitration game with BRIAN DOZIER? That made me laugh/throw up in mouth a little bit. Dozier's about to turn 25 and he hasn't seen a game in the bigs yet. This is not "prodigy" or elite-level prospect like Justin Upton, Evan Longoria, or Hosmer, where you KNOW the guy will be in the majors at some capacity in 5 years. Dozier could be terrible. But if there's a chance he can help this team now, even marginally, then they really should have been looking at guys like this last September in the majors BEFORE going out and signing Jamey Carroll to 2 years.

    Also, I think it should be noted that for everyone who loved the Carroll signing (including some very respected bloggers), the guy is now essentially being benched only a month into the season, and it wasn't even because of his defense.
    Yeah, I have to agree, I like Dozier and I wish him well but this whole thing smacks of desperation, yes things are looking bad but it's still early May and I'm not sure that's in order (except if it involves our starting rotation). This is at least the 4th move I'd classify as knee-jerk so far and that is disappointing, Hughes released so early, signing Clete Thomas, reassigning Burroughs and now this. There are moves that are made because they are considered and deliberate and there are moves that are made just for the sake of making them in order to keep up appearances.

    If the original intent was to sign Carroll for depth and have him serve as a utility player further on into the season until Dozier was more prepared, then that should still be the plan in my mind. Now I'm not really sure what the plan was, granted the injury to Baker, poor hitting by Carroll and indifferent play from Valencia has altered the plan some but it had to have been a pretty thin plan if this is now being offered up as an alternative.

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    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    If he has a UZR north of 0, an OBP of at least .340 and looks good enough to hold down the starting job throughout the year, I'll be happy. (Oh, and healthy. PLEASE stay healthy.)

    I'm very surprised that Dozier is being called up now. The arbitration thing is one reason, and I don't understand why his age makes it less so. Either way, I want him cheaper, longer, and I don't see the urgency in calling him up. It also seems weird that they're doing so when they know he's struggling. It all has the faint whiff of panic.

    And again - I like him. I just don't understand the timing of this move.

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    About the "arbitration thing" and the super 2 or not super 2 for Dozier:

    He is not a Spring Chicken. This is his age 25 season. Super 2 or not, he will be entering his prime when arbitration-eligible. So if good, the Twins will probably lock him in at that point anyways. If not, oh well....

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