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Thread: Article: Twins Minor League Report (5/25): Vargas and Berrios Continue Their Strong Months

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Article: Twins Minor League Report (5/25): Vargas and Berrios Continue Their Strong Months

    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    Steve, thanks for the report.

    It's time for Vargas to go to AAA. He needs a better challenge and the organization would send good messages about opportunity and rewards. If he succeeds in AAA, he could play with the Twins in 2014.

    Achter should be the next pitcher up to the majors. I'd rather see what he can do against major league hitters than see the final puff of the cigar butt that remains of Matt Guerrier's productive years. (Depending on how Vargas does against AAA pitching, could probably say the same thing about Vargas vs. Kubel.)

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    What are they waiting for with Vargas?

    Is Brad Nelson, the 32 year old with a .527 OPS, too irreplaceable for Vargas to take his spot?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaykay View Post
    What are they waiting for with Vargas?

    Is Brad Nelson, the 32 year old with a .527 OPS, too irreplaceable for Vargas to take his spot?
    Patience. First run for Vargas through AA. See how he adjusts when pitchers adjust to him. Sano,Rosario andBuxton wern't promonted until post- all star game last year

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    Quote Originally Posted by orangevening View Post
    Patience. First run for Vargas through AA. See how he adjusts when pitchers adjust to him. Sano,Rosario andBuxton wern't promonted until post- all star game last year
    Vargas is older than Arcia and he's a grown man. And he's been adjusting and staying well ahead of EL pitchers since April 20. His K%=BB% since that date- both very, very good numbers at 12.4%, and his splits have remained consistently solid, as well. And he's doing it without support in the NB lineup. AA is supposed to be a potential launching pad to the major leagues for some prospects. He's ready to move up to AAA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Vargas is older than Arcia and he's a grown man. And he's been adjusting and staying well ahead of EL pitchers since April 20. His K%=BB% since that date- both very, very good numbers at 12.4%, and his splits have remained consistently solid, as well. And he's doing it without support in the NB lineup. AA is supposed to be a potential launching pad to the major leagues for some prospects. He's ready to move up to AAA.
    Jokin, you have to understand. The Twins Way now is that it is preferable to be disappointed by players who had a chance to be All-Stars five or six years ago than to take a chance on someone with the potential to be an All-Star sometime in the next five years. Generally, the only exceptions are when there is no other choice, like Hicks, or when someone is getting to be older than other teams' rookies, like Pinto and Dozier.

    A mediocre veteran doesn't play well: "He's good in the clubhouse." A young player with potential doesn't play well: "Rip him in the papers."
    "Where's the Crede?"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deduno Abides View Post
    Steve, thanks for the report.

    It's time for Vargas to go to AAA. He needs a better challenge and the organization would send good messages about opportunity and rewards. If he succeeds in AAA, he could play with the Twins in 2014.

    Achter should be the next pitcher up to the majors. I'd rather see what he can do against major league hitters than see the final puff of the cigar butt that remains of Matt Guerrier's productive years. (Depending on how Vargas does against AAA pitching, could probably say the same thing about Vargas vs. Kubel.)
    Thanks for stopping by!

    As others have said, there should be no rush with Vargas right now. He's going to get promoted at this rate, and I'm sure New Britain would appreciate having him around a little while longer!
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    "rush" is a loaded word, isn't it? It implies that moving him up is bad. We don't know that. Perhaps he is ready for AAA.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    "rush" is a loaded word, isn't it? It implies that moving him up is bad. We don't know that. Perhaps he is ready for AAA.
    Yes it is, and I'm not trying to use it in the way you're thinking! Could he be ready for AAA? Sure. Do they [ever?] know this for sure? I don't think so. Therefore you're not harming anything by being deliberate with and sticking to your process for promotions.
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    I don't accept that their process works, given the results lately. But I understand that others disagree with me on that.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    I think Vargas has made an adjustment. His walk to strikeout rate is very good. After a slow start, he's adjusted well to the Eastern League. Now, I would see if he can maintain it for a month and move him up. He's not coming to the Twins this year (at least until September), so let him get the 1/2 season in New Britain, then Rochester can release Nelson and call up Vargas for another half season of adjusting.

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    Why can't he come to MN this year? If that is true, they have zero plans to bring him here, I guess I don't care when he gets to Rochester.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
    Yes it is, and I'm not trying to use it in the way you're thinking! Could he be ready for AAA? Sure. Do they [ever?] know this for sure? I don't think so. Therefore you're not harming anything by being deliberate with and sticking to your process for promotions.
    I would think that Vargas' agent would have a bone to pick with you on this one. And the only way to know "for sure" is to find out, particularly when the player has reached physical maturity, and that mastery has been demonstrated at the current level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Why can't he come to MN this year? If that is true, they have zero plans to bring him here, I guess I don't care when he gets to Rochester.
    I care, in the context that it kicks out one more rung of support from under the Twins go-slow approach. What are the Twins afraid of? Presumably, they put Vargas on the 40-man roster in the offseason for good reasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I would think that Vargas' agent would have a bone to pick with you on this one. And the only way to know "for sure" is to find out, particularly when the player has reached physical maturity, and that mastery has been demonstrated at the current level.
    This is how it works in every organization. They all spell out goals and milestones for players. Yes, there are cases where players push those timetables (Buxton did last year), but this is not the norm. I also think you vastly overestimate the power an agent has for a Minor League player in influencing when these things happen (literally zero).
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    I do find it funny that the two big topics of conversation today appear to be Aaron Hicks and Kennys Vargas. Aaron Hicks had a full season at AA and was moved up to the big leagues, yet the conversation is that the Twins moved him up too quickly. Kennys Vargas has had five tremendous weeks at AA and he's being held back. There's just no harm in letting him prove his numbers and prove that plate approach.

    And yeah, maybe he could move up to the Twins a little bit before September, but they have to figure out what they're doing with Willingham and Suzuki/Pinto and several others before they push Vargas up there.

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    I would like him in AAA sooner, to get more data on if our when he could be ready. I am not arguing he should be in the majors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
    This is how it works in every organization. They all spell out goals and milestones for players. Yes, there are cases where players push those timetables (Buxton did last year), but this is not the norm. I also think you vastly overestimate the power an agent has for a Minor League player in influencing when these things happen (literally zero).
    I disagree with you here. Other organizations get their best players in a position to help the team as soon as possible- challenging them at times and pulling them back when it's obvious that pulling back on the reins is warranted, but all along with the intent on maximizing their peak years for the major league team, as is humanly possible. Vargas isn't going to change anymore, physically, his approach at the plate in AA has proven to be very successful, mature to the point of almost being uniquely good. The Twins should have him in a position to take a spot on the big team as the Willinghams, Kubels, Colabellos and Parmelees potentially fall by the wayside, due to whatever circumstance (trade, DFA, retirement or ineffectiveness) makes the move necessary. There is a load of dead weight in Rochester, that wouldn't be missed when Vargas is promoted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Other organizations get their best players in a position to help the team as soon as possible- challenging them at times and pulling them back when it's obvious that pulling back on the reins is warranted, but all along with the intent on maximizing their peak years for the major league team, as is humanly possible.
    Oh...
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
    Oh...
    Incredulous? Do you need actual examples from other teams? I can supply a bushelful.

    Vargas will be 24 in just 2 months. Is it wrong to have a guy going full-bore in his major league career at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 (ie, his physical peak years) when he's demonstrating minor league competence, other smart teams have the apprenticeship years of many of their top prospects practically completed by age 25. I fear that Vargas won't get serious consideration for even sticking on the roster full-time and just beginning his "apprenticeship" until some time in 2016, just short of his 26th birthday. He's already years behind where Ortiz was called up, I'd like to see him become a stud reminiscent to Ortiz before his 30th birthday, not after (that would put his career track to studliness to around the year 2020).

    And utmost, I prefer that the Twins pursue all means to avoid their version of the fan-suffering involved in "The Long March" of the prospects, reminiscent to the early 80s and late 90s.

    Let's increase the pace of the rebuild, severely cut back on the over-30 veteran signings, and turn this thing over to the future team leaders, whomever they turn out to be.

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