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Thread: Moustakas demoted

  1. #61
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    That's not what a contending team does though. We spent a decade doing what you suggested and we had some fun seasons and good division winning teams, but we also never went over the top and made a move to make a difference. You know I don't believe in the idea that big trades make for World Series wins, but I do believe big moves at the right time can catapult a team to the next level.

    The reason why you play Pokemon with prospects is because they often fail. So dealing one good one and some decent ones for a healthy, known commodity isn't the villainous move you are making it out to be.

    For all the bluster on this move you've put on here, you're advocating a system of doing thing that yielded less than a handful of playoff wins and eventually bled dry into the awfulness we know now. So the real risk here was whether the guys they believed in would pan out vs. continuing a cycle of hopelessness.
    You're strawmanning my argument. Ryan's passivity during the Twins' years when they posted 94, 90, 92, 83, 96, and 79 wins is nothing like Moore trying to catapult a team from 72 wins to the 90+ wins it takes to make the playoffs.

    The Twins were already a good team. They won 90 games four times during that stretch of play and never won less than 79, which is still seven more games than the Royals won in 2012.

    I've said multiple times in this thread that if you have an 85 win team, go for it if you need one more piece. You're trying to saddle me with an argument I never made.

  2. #62
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    The concept is the same, it's about risk. I'd also point out that the Royals had a player in Cain they may have liked better (and so far this year has been better) and that you're judging this trade completely out of context for most deals.

    Teams often give up as much or more than this for LESS than 2 years of Shields. Hell, sometimes they give up more for 2 months of someone roughly equal to Shields.

    They didn't kill their franchise, they gave up a blue chip CF for two years of a blue chip starter. (When they already had a promising young CF) You're acting like this is on the same level as Babe Ruth for cash.

  3. #63
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    They'd be better positioned to win in the long term with Myers on the roster right now.

    That's why you collect prospects like Pokemon, not flip them for vets on a rebuilding team. Some of those prospects will inevitably fail but it's almost impossible to predict which ones will falter and which will thrive.

    Safety in numbers. The Royals (and most other teams) cannot afford five Shields on the roster. They need to succeed through internal prospect success.
    Many of the vets will inevitably fail too. Baseball is no sure thing.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    In 2012, the Royals drew 1,739,000 fans.

    In 2013, the Royals drew 1,750,000 fans.

    Adjusted for league attendance, they actually went backward in attendance.

    Yeah, they stunk up the joint early in the year. But when they started making noise and playing good ball, the place was full. That was refreshing to see.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Swap out Myers for Shields last year and the Royals are an 84 win team according to the WAR adjustment, as opposed to the 86 games they actually won.
    I'm pretty sure you can't draw that conclusion just by comparing WAR. WAR is a nice way to compare two players in a context neutral setting, but it tells us very little about how their performance actually matters to a particular team, specifically when the two players play different positions.

    Myers plays RF and produced 2.5 fWAR. David Lough and Justin Maxwell platooned in RF for basically the same games that Myers was up, and they combined for 3.1 fWAR. So the Royals actually would have been slightly worse off having Myers in the outfield last year.

    Shields, on the other hand, made 34 starts and pitched 228 2/3 innings. These starts and innings would have had to been replaced by somebody, and it seems likely that somebody would have been more Luis Mendoza (who pitched 94 innings with a -1.0 bWAR anyway in 2013) and some pitcher(s) worst than Mendoza. So it seems very likely that Shields was worth every bit of his 4.1 bWAR, and I would even venture to say that he was probably worth more since his actual replacement would probably have been well below "replacement level".

    So swapping out Myers for Shields is at least a 4 win difference, and probably closer to 5 or 6 wins.

  6. These 3 users like markos's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    gunnarthor (05-25-2014), mike wants wins (05-24-2014), notoriousgod71 (05-26-2014)

  7. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    I'm pretty sure you can't draw that conclusion just by comparing WAR. WAR is a nice way to compare two players in a context neutral setting, but it tells us very little about how their performance actually matters to a particular team, specifically when the two players play different positions.

    Myers plays RF and produced 2.5 fWAR. David Lough and Justin Maxwell platooned in RF for basically the same games that Myers was up, and they combined for 3.1 fWAR. So the Royals actually would have been slightly worse off having Myers in the outfield last year.

    Shields, on the other hand, made 34 starts and pitched 228 2/3 innings. These starts and innings would have had to been replaced by somebody, and it seems likely that somebody would have been more Luis Mendoza (who pitched 94 innings with a -1.0 bWAR anyway in 2013) and some pitcher(s) worst than Mendoza. So it seems very likely that Shields was worth every bit of his 4.1 bWAR, and I would even venture to say that he was probably worth more since his actual replacement would probably have been well below "replacement level".

    So swapping out Myers for Shields is at least a 4 win difference, and probably closer to 5 or 6 wins.
    If Moore had not traded for Shields he could have signed another pitcher that could have worked out. KC committed 22 mil over 2 years for Shields. The money could have been spent elsewhere. You might not have Shield's numbers but would be far above replacement level.

  8. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    If Moore had not traded for Shields he could have signed another pitcher that could have worked out. KC committed 22 mil over 2 years for Shields. The money could have been spent elsewhere. You might not have Shield's numbers but would be far above replacement level.
    except maybe he thought shields at that price was way better than a FA he could afford, like compared to Pelfrey, for example.
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #68
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    22 million is the same we spent for Pelfrey and Correia. So, no, not far above replacement level.

    Shields at 11M is a bargain.

  10. #69
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    Wow 4 pages.

    When did Moustakas become a Twin?

  11. #70
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    Bringing some of this discussion back up but does anyone think the Rays were wrong to make the trade? I'm not arguing they didn't get the better longterm deal - or at least should have - but rather they gave up a win-now chance for an unknown future. Myers was OK for them in part time play but they probably could have gotten roughly equal production or so from other areas. And this year Myers is slumping and now hurt. Meanwhile, without Shields in their rotation, they had to give 170+ innings (and negative WAR) to Jeremy Hellickson, who also got a playoff start.

    Maybe the Rays could have beaten the Red Sox if they had Shields for game 1?

  12. #71
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    In my eyes the Royals have slaughtered the Rays in terms of on-field value the last two years from this trade.

    Ultimately it won't be decided until we see how Myers' career plays out.

  13. #72
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    There is value in certainty vs risk. There is value in present day results over a future that may never come. It isn't some one sided deal that everyone thought it was, imo.
    Lighten up Francis....

  14. #73
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    It isn't some one sided deal that everyone thought it was, imo.
    I don't think it was one-sided. I think it was badly timed. There's a significant difference there.

    If the Royals were an 88 or 90 win team and picked up Shields, I'd applaud the move as going all-in on a good team in pursuit of a ring.

    I still wouldn't want to lose Myers but you have to give up talent to get talent.

  15. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I don't think it was one-sided. I think it was badly timed. There's a significant difference there.

    If the Royals were an 88 or 90 win team and picked up Shields, I'd applaud the move as going all-in on a good team in pursuit of a ring.

    I still wouldn't want to lose Myers but you have to give up talent to get talent.
    I think that's a fair assessment from the Royals side but how about the opposite? The Rays were 90+ win team giving up a front end starter when they were (arguably) trying to win a WS.

    Would you give up 2006 Santana for Delmon Young (BA #1 prospect)? Obviously not but it would have been a comparable trade at the time - Santana was slightly better than Shields, of course, but Young was a better prospect than Myers. And Young's ETA was the same year. Twins, like Rays, knew they couldn't hang onto Santana in a few years.

  16. #75
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Hard to say. The Rays had just missed the playoffs with 90 wins and maybe they felt their window was closing. They are eternally up against a budget wall and maybe felt that the only way to stay relevant is to flip short term security for long term gain with risk. Given their payroll ceiling it's not a terrible idea and it worked out for them last year, as they ended up with 92 wins and six more years of Wil Myers in the outfield.

  17. #76
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    I think we are going to look back and see that Myers was a bit overrated. He carried certainty but is probably more destined to be a Cuddyer level player than an elite player. That type of player is obtainable using other avenues (trades or FA).

    Shields has been outstanding this year and last regardless of what a particular WAR stat told you. And most importantly he doesn't have zero future value to the Royals. He is going to be one of the most sought after deadline trade options or certainly a comp pick. That won't equal Myers but it certainly has value.

    This trade should only be an example of what not to do because the Royals overpaid in the trade to start with and Shields was only signed for 2 years. Rebuilding teams should be looking at spinning off prospects for good veterans preferably with 3+ yrs before FA. For example the Garza trade worked well for the Cubs. They traded Hak Ju Lee and Archer for Garza 3+ yrs ago and got back Edwards and Olt. Garza was a very good pitcher and Archer is finally providing some value while and it could be a couple more years until Lee does anything. Or you could look at the Gio Gonzalez trade.

  18. #77
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Shields has been outstanding this year and last regardless of what a particular WAR stat told you.
    No one is arguing whether Shields has been a good pitcher and WAR agrees with that statement. I'm not sure what you're getting at there... My only point regarding WAR was that Myers was a very valuable player last season and not far off Shields' pace for the season (but Myers only played a partial season).

    Looking again at Shields' bWAR, it's currently at 0.0.

    *scratches head*

    That doesn't make much sense. He hasn't been particularly good this season but he's definitely above replacement level.

  19. #78
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Looking again at Shields' bWAR, it's currently at 0.0.

    *scratches head*

    That doesn't make much sense. He hasn't been particularly good this season but he's definitely above replacement level.
    His defense hasn't done him any favors. 10 unearned runs allowed, which get included into the WAR calculation on Bref.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  20. #79
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    His defense hasn't done him any favors. 10 unearned runs allowed, which get included into the WAR calculation on Bref.
    Ah, good catch.

  21. #80
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    royals currently in the playoffs, I believe......
    Lighten up Francis....

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