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Thread: Article: Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.1.0

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Simmons was a pop-up guy who spent one year at a JC and got less than 1000 minor league ABs. He's only 24 and has less than 1000 MLB plate appearances. There's still projection left. I don't see either as .300 hitters, but a little below.

    Heck, the easy comp to make is Dee Gordon, who's playing out of his mind, and only has a .750 OPS. Granted, Nick will have more pop and Dee will have more speed. Though it won't be big-time home run power and I'd think Dee's speed probably allows him to take extra bases and it might all even out in the end anyway.
    I do agree that Simmons has a little project left hut even if Simmons doesn't advance any more he was worth 6.9 WAR last year (baseball reference) and finished 14th in NL MVP voting. He would have been the best player on the Twins last year. 100 MPH pitchers and 30HR middle of the order batters are sexy but not more valuable.

    One other thing to note is while Dee is faster he has now been moved to second base because of his poor feel for the position/poor arm. Gordon won't have either of those problems.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I do agree that Simmons has a little project left hut even if Simmons doesn't advance any more he was worth 6.9 WAR last year (baseball reference) and finished 14th in NL MVP voting. He would have been the best player on the Twins last year. 100 MPH pitchers and 30HR middle of the order batters are sexy but not more valuable.

    One other thing to note is while Dee is faster he has now been moved to second base because of his poor feel for the position/poor arm. Gordon won't have either of those problems.
    Simmons WAR to date has been 8 defensively and 3.4 offensively (in 3 seasons). He is a once in a decade defensive talent. Nobody is saying Gordon is going to be a once in a decade talent defensively.

    So you are back to a ceiling of a .710 OPS. Here are my two cents, couldn't we trade for Didi and get this production? He is supposed to be a good defensive player with not a huge bat. What would we have to give up for Didi? I am guessing something good, but not equivalent to the 5th pick in the draft. So I would trade something less for Didi and take Jackson or a top arm.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-19-2014 at 12:32 PM.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Simmons' 2013 will go down as one of the all time greatest seasons in history from a defensive standpoint. Its not reasonable to project that sort of upside year in and out, even from Simmons I think.

    Going back to 2007, JJ Hardy leads SS's with 103 runs saved. Not even 15 per year. Brendan Ryan is next at 80.5.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Simmons WAR to date has been 8 defensively and 3.4 offensively (in 3 seasons). He is a once in a decade defensive talent. Nobody is saying Gordon is going to be a once in a decade talent defensively.

    So you are back to a ceiling of a .710 OPS. Here are my two cents, couldn't we trade for Didi and get this production? He is supposed to be a good defensive player with not a huge bat. What would we have to give up for Didi? I am guessing something good, but not equivalent to the 5th pick in the draft. So I would trade something less for Didi and take Jackson or a top arm.
    I don't believe I have ever compared Gordon to Simmons. I was just throwing in my two cents about the original post. If I was going to I would definitely agree with you that while Gordon profiles as a plus defender Simmons is a plus-plus defender. Still, if his offensive numbers are similar and he is worth half as much WAR on defense as Simmons that still makes him a 3.5+ WAR player.

    As for Didi, I was for a trade before the season and I'm for a trade now. Your guess is as good as mine to what he will cost but let's not act like they are similar players just because of OPS. Gordon should be a plus defender at SS while Didi was pretty much league average last year.

  5. #25
    Part of me is intrigued by Gordon, but I'm deathly afraid that if the Twins take him we'll be hearing about a SS prospect for four years instead of having a major league quality SS on the big club next year. Barring a miracle, SS needs to be the Twins #1 priority in Free Agency during the coming off-season.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I don't believe I have ever compared Gordon to Simmons. I was just throwing in my two cents about the original post. If I was going to I would definitely agree with you that while Gordon profiles as a plus defender Simmons is a plus-plus defender. Still, if his offensive numbers are similar and he is worth half as much WAR on defense as Simmons that still makes him a 3.5+ WAR player.

    As for Didi, I was for a trade before the season and I'm for a trade now. Your guess is as good as mine to what he will cost but let's not act like they are similar players just because of OPS. Gordon should be a plus defender at SS while Didi was pretty much league average last year.
    Here is my point, half of Simmons WAR last year would be 230th or so, of all time, for any position.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...f_season.shtml

  7. #27
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    What would we have to give up for Didi? I am guessing something good, but not equivalent to the 5th pick in the draft. So I would trade something less for Didi and take Jackson or a top arm.
    It took the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft for the Diamondbacks to get Didi.

    Anyway, I think we're splitting hairs over these comps. Maybe there's better ones out there, those were just the two that came to my mind. Feel free to throw any out there that you might have.

  8. #28
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    I dont think hoffman gets picked in top 20 picks. Too much risk and tommy john is not an automatic. He will lose this year And most of next meaning he would be in Cedar Rapids as a 25 year old college pitcher.

    I see the cubs takin a college arm who is healthy. I still think top 3 pitchers are off the board and twins choice comes down to nola (if cubs dont nab him), Jackson, or Gordon. Gordon plays premium position and Jackson might play premium position. I think Gordon is the choice...as do many of the pundits who hear rumors about an underslot deal. I would be ok with all 3!

  9. #29
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    Relooking over your draft mock and looking at Garrioch's/Crawford's today it just reminds me of how deep this draft is. While there are guys I prefer at #5 I honestly would be fine with about 10+ players. As you noted with Pentecost pick, teams are going to get a few steals. Also, more than last year I'm truly interested with who the Twins take in the second round. Could definitely get a first round type talent. Only 17 more days!

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I dont think hoffman gets picked in top 20 picks. Too much risk and tommy john is not an automatic. He will lose this year And most of next meaning he would be in Cedar Rapids as a 25 year old college pitcher.
    He had surgery in early May, I'd think he'd be able to pitch most of next year. In fact the start of the rookie leagues would line up pretty good with a return.

    I'm not advocating a Hoffman pick but I wonder how much underslot you could get him for now. I want BPA, but those who like the idea of going underslot and saving money for a high upside HS kid in round 2, Hoffman may be your guy.

  11. #31
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Relooking over your draft mock and looking at Garrioch's/Crawford's today it just reminds me of how deep this draft is. While there are guys I prefer at #5 I honestly would be fine with about 10+ players. As you noted with Pentecost pick, teams are going to get a few steals. Also, more than last year I'm truly interested with who the Twins take in the second round. Could definitely get a first round type talent. Only 17 more days!
    I'm curious to see if players try to make deals early instead of falling and costing a couple millions. The gap between #5 and #25 is much greater in money than it is in talent.

  12. #32
    Aaron Nola is the best pitcher in this Draft!! Take him and don't even think Twice!

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexTwinsFan View Post
    Part of me is intrigued by Gordon, but I'm deathly afraid that if the Twins take him we'll be hearing about a SS prospect for four years instead of having a major league quality SS on the big club next year. Barring a miracle, SS needs to be the Twins #1 priority in Free Agency during the coming off-season.
    Santana? Lotsa variables to be sure, but he just might be adequate.

  14. #34
    If the Twins go with pitching, I like Nola since Rodon and Aiken likely will not be there at #5. I get the sense a lot of people get scared off by the words: safe, low-to-mid 90's and control. He may not be the pitcher with the greatest velocity but there is no denying his dominance in college. He has three good pitches that he can control, pitches deep into games while maintaining velocity (7.1 per start and 2 CG), and has been consistent. There is a lot to like.
    I would be just fine with either Jackson or Gordon. Cannot have enough athletic up the middle players or power hitters.

  15. #35
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    I'm starting to think the Twins will be choosing between Nick Gordon and Tyler Kolek. I'm less sure of Kolek's landing place than ever.

    I believe it was Jim Callis today who said Aaron Nola is a top-end #3, better than Mike Leake.

    But Nola might be the preferred choice of the Cubs.... Rodon, Jackson, Aiken, Nola... Twins on the board.

  16. #36
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    With Kolek I wonder how much it's concern over his secondary pitches. Throwing 100 is nice but if he's a one trick pony, he's a flame out. That pick would kill.

  17. #37
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    With Kolek I wonder how much it's concern over his secondary pitches. Throwing 100 is nice but if he's a one trick pony, he's a flame out. That pick would kill.
    I know there is concern over what else he brings to the table. That is fact. I believe that line was something about his fastball being a good start, but there being a question about his mix.

  18. #38
    Talking about the risk of drafting a college pitcher with TJ surgery... Is it more risky than the floor of a high school position player? The more I think about it, the more reasonable it sounds to target Hoffman (provided Rodon, Aiken, and Kolek are gone). What is Hoffmans floor now? Is it similar to Nola's? Hoffmans ceiling is still much higher.

  19. #39
    One must remember we play at Target Field. A pitchers heaven and a left handed hitters hell. Granted the Twins have some RH bats with pop on the horizon (Buxton, Sano, Walker) it might be wise to continue with Alex Jackson. I think it's safe to say he is going to end up in RF but the Twins wouldn't have anyone to block him. He will move fast as long as his bat projects. Gordon could be a potential all star at SS but his bat scares me enough to think we can wait for something better. I personally would take Turner before Gordon. More polish, good speed, ability to stick at SS, line drive leadoff type guy who brings a sense of leadership. Kolek looks too much like Stetson Allie. All power and no control. Someone better hope he can hit like Allie in the case where he never finds his command. The Twins most glaring hole is for a #1 starter, but they don't grow on trees. I think they go the safe route and take the bat (Jackson) and hope they already have their ace in Meyer lined up.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I know there is concern over what else he brings to the table. That is fact. I believe that line was something about his fastball being a good start, but there being a question about his mix.
    I don't think his mix is very good, but what are people expecting, he's a HS kid who throws 100 MPH, obviously he's going to throw what he knows. His secondary stuff will need development but it seems odd that such an obvious concept is only now a concern of front offices around MLB.

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