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Thread: Article: The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    I don't think there should be a rush to ink a 5/40 extension, but from Dozier's perspective I certainly understand the "rush" to get a long term deal in place. Obviously knowing you're getting _,000,000 per year for 5 years regardless of injury or regression is a huge thing for him and his family.

    5/40 might be a fair market deal but it's about 39.5M more guaranteed dollars than he has right now.

    Unless you are buying out a bunch of FA years for a probable star player, there's rarely much incentive (in my opinion) for a team to get into these 5/40 type deals.

    Dozier's got to give something to get something. 5/30 Seems like a place we can agree is:
    a) a chunk less than he will likely get over the next 5 years if he continues to play the way he is playing, and
    b) enough money to incent Dozier to potentially leave some money on the table to guarantee the security I'm sure that he wants.

    At 5/30 both sides have some incentive

  2. #22
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    He is a free agent a long time from now. I don't understand the rush.
    The sooner you do it, the more team friendly the contract as the team is assuming more of the risk. If Dozier continues to improve, that also makes it more of a Span like contract where he can be flipped for something of need if say Rosario/Polanco force the issue.

  3. #23
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    This notion just baffles me. It makes absolutely zero sense under any circumstances. I'm sure his agent wants a nice extension - he knows that getting the Twins to overpay now is the best move for Dozier's finances (and the agent's of course). The reality is that Dozier has zero leverage... the Twins can keep him through his prime with no downside to the club.

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    Winston Smith (05-13-2014)

  5. #24
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    "no downside".....sure there is.

    Bad feelings on not getting an extension.
    Lack of certainty on where he will be after his FA, meaning they need to plan more for the possibility he leaves.
    Possible insane inflation that skyrockets his cost.
    lack of predictabiliy of the budget
    etc.

    The list is actually quite endless for why you MIGHT want to do this.
    Lighten up Francis....

  6. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    "The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier" should actually read The potential rising cost of Brian Dozier. They have this year and next before arbitration kicks in, no reason to be in a hurry. Let him prove himself for more than a year. A lot of baseball and a lot of bad things can happen before he even reaches his first year of arbitration.
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  7. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    If I owned the team, I would throw in nice little performance bonuses in these "cheap" years. I know that isn't realistic in this scenario. Anyway, he isn't even in his arb years yet. One way to deal with this might be to see what he wants in his first year of arbitration and instead of coming up with their own amount and then bargaining or going to arbitration, just giving him that amount.

  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    "no downside".....sure there is.

    Bad feelings on not getting an extension.
    Lack of certainty on where he will be after his FA, meaning they need to plan more for the possibility he leaves.
    Possible insane inflation that skyrockets his cost.
    lack of predictabiliy of the budget
    etc.

    The list is actually quite endless for why you MIGHT want to do this.
    So what's he going to do, quit baseball? The rules are the rules. His "bad feelings" aren't a downside.

    The Twins have him under contract through what, 2018? They don't need to plan 2B for 2019 - they have enough problems already.

    The chances of Dozier turning into one of the game's elite players is close to zero. That's the only scenario where an extension makes sense.

  9. #28
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    You don't give non-elite players deals like this. The day may come to smartly buy out some FA years, but it sure as heck isn't now.

  10. #29
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    If I owned the team, I would throw in nice little performance bonuses in these "cheap" years. I know that isn't realistic in this scenario. Anyway, he isn't even in his arb years yet. One way to deal with this might be to see what he wants in his first year of arbitration and instead of coming up with their own amount and then bargaining or going to arbitration, just giving him that amount.
    It would be interesting to base this on that player's WAR (or some other internal metric).

    When you're in you're rookie contract WAR 1.0 to 1.9 gets you $50k, 2.0 to 2.9 gets you another $50k, and so on.

    Not enough to break a team's budget, obviously, but enough, when you're "only" making 500k per year to significantly incent that young player.

  11. #30
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    In writing my two posts in this thread I have discovered that "incent" is not really a word (according to Merriam/Webster).

    Well, I'm going to keep using it, but now I'm going to feel like a rebel when I do.

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  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    You don't give non-elite players deals like this. The day may come to smartly buy out some FA years, but it sure as heck isn't now.
    Depending on how you define elite. Gyorko looks promising, but I'm not sure that he's elite. Kipnis isn't a traditional "elite" guy but positionally, he sure looked elite last year.

  14. #32
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    Kipnis is a year ahead of Dozier, service-time (although just about the same age). He got his big deal AFTER his "breakthrough" year (2013: 133 OPS+, 5.9 rWAR). That would put Dozier on track for something equivalent AFTER 2014, if 2014 proves to be his full-season breakout. Then you can also adjust the relative value based on Dozier's 2014 performance.

    Also, Kipnis got 6/52 plus an option, or if you lop off the final year, it was 5/38. So if Dozier was to sign now, 3/4 of a season earlier than Kipnis, we'd probably get a discount compared to that, no? 5/30? Dozier should probably be at a bit of a disadvantage compared to Gyorko and Kipnis -- both of them were more highly regarded as prospects (both top 100) and haven't yet had the down stretch that was Dozier's 2012 (although Gyorko is starting slow this year), so they both might be more safely projected.

  15. #33
    Would someone please do the math on what he would get in his arbitration years before offering him a free agent offer. Sure 5/40 would be a good offer IF HE WAS A FREE AGENT. But he is not a free agent and won't be until 2019 when he is 31. You need to compare ARBITRATION awards for similar players, not contract extentions by teams with more revenue. The Twins have a good record in arbitration. They usually settle before the cases are heard. Let's WAIT until after Dozier submits his first arbitration offer before overpaying him needlessly.

    Right now he is in line to make $550k-600k next year, $1-2.5M in his first year of arbitration and maybe $3-5M in his third year. In no way do these numbers approach an average $8M per year over 5 years.

    And just so it's clear, the Twins cannot lose him until his free agent year of 2019. He is not going anywhere.

  16. #34
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    Ok good idea*

    edit:
    *that would have been way more fun if caps locks was not turned off
    Lighten up Francis....

  17. #35
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    I'd be thinking about it but I don't think I do it yet.

    Thank Goodness that there is time to think about it.

  18. #36
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    5/$40M feels like way too much, but I'm not sure I have a good idea of what his arbitration baseline is. Chris Johnson received $2.3M his first year, and he hadn't performed like Dozier has the past year. I bet Dozier makes at least $3M his first year and maybe $15M-$20M overall. Of course, if he keeps playing out of his mind the next two seasons (say, flirts with 30-30 seasons, makes an all-star team or two, wins a gold glove), then it is quite possible that his first arbitration year will end up at $5M or more. Dan Uggla got almost $6M his first year, and that was back in 2009. At that point his arbitration baseline is probably closer to $30M total.

    If I were to offer a contract, this is how it would be structured:
    4 years, $18M guaranteed (basically locks in arbitration value for a good but not great player)
    Team options for years 5 ($12M) and 6 ($15) (two free agent years)
    Total value: 6 years, $45M

    Twins get cost certainty for the next four seasons, as well as the option to keep him around for his age-31 and age-32 seasons.
    Dozier avoids risk of injury or becoming bad.

    Unfortunately, Gyorko already signed for more than this, and Dozier is a better player (so far). I'm not he would take this offer.

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  20. #37
    Senior Member Triple-A Jerr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    Free agent in 2019 no reason to be in a hurry.
    Exactly!!!
    I thought baseball fans are usually patient fans

  21. #38
    Senior Member Triple-A Jerr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DuluthFan View Post
    Would someone please do the math on what he would get in his arbitration years before offering him a free agent offer. Sure 5/40 would be a good offer IF HE WAS A FREE AGENT. But he is not a free agent and won't be until 2019 when he is 31. You need to compare ARBITRATION awards for similar players, not contract extentions by teams with more revenue. The Twins have a good record in arbitration. They usually settle before the cases are heard. Let's WAIT until after Dozier submits his first arbitration offer before overpaying him needlessly.

    Right now he is in line to make $550k-600k next year, $1-2.5M in his first year of arbitration and maybe $3-5M in his third year. In no way do these numbers approach an average $8M per year over 5 years.

    And just so it's clear, the Twins cannot lose him until his free agent year of 2019. He is not going anywhere.
    Very good, end of agrument!!!!

  22. #39
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Dozier is neither Gyorko (career .321/.386/.530 in the minors, twice in top 100 prospects) nor Kipnis (career .297/.378/.486 in the minors, once in top 100 prospects, All Star in the majors, career 118 OPS+ in the majors.) Those guys are more similar to Longoria than they are to Dozier (career .298/.370/.409 in the minors, career 94 OPS+ in the majors.)

    If the Twins are smart, they will look into their talent pipeline in middle infield (Rosario & Polanco mainly who are like the 2 guys mentioned, plus Goodrum possibly) and sell really high on Dozier. But that is not the "Twins' way".
    .

  23. #40
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    Allowing him to go to arbitration and the Twins risk he performs at an all star level and earns a large salary.

    Sign him long term and the Twins risk making a long term commitment to a middling or worse 2B.

    The Twins can afford to risk he will step up to all star level. They are a mid market team. A small market team might need to the cost control.

    The Twins can't afford to make more long term commitments to players to players without near certainty that they will be among the better players at their position.

    They need to act like a midmarket team. Let him earn his big dollars in arbitration and happily pay for top performance.

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