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Thread: Article: Three-Bagger: Muted Mauer, Pelfrey's Problems & Pinto's Pop

  1. #21
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Mauer has been a slow starter in his career. He's also returning to play two months off in 2013 followed by an offseason where he didn't train much at all, if I remember correctly.

    It's not surprising that he's rusty. I'm a little concerned by how badly he's missing balls but I'll give it time and see if he comes around after being inactive for 6-7 months.
    Why were none of these things acceptable in the offseason when he was being pegged for a down season and you and many others were calling it absurd that he'd struggle?

    Now it's suddenly reasonable that he's WAY under even the pessimistic progressions?

  2. #22
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Why were none of these things acceptable in the offseason when he was being pegged for a down season and you and many others were calling it absurd that he'd struggle?

    Now it's suddenly reasonable that he's WAY under even the pessimistic progressions?
    It's three weeks into the season. If you can find one instance of me dismissing anyone who said Mauer would have a bad April, I'd love to see it.

    And during the offseason, I don't recall any of us knowing that he wasn't working out and was resting due to the concussion. I know I didn't find that out until just a few weeks ago.

  3. #23
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It's three weeks into the season. If you can find one instance of me dismissing anyone who said Mauer would have a bad April, I'd love to see it.

    And during the offseason, I don't recall any of us knowing that he wasn't working out and was resting due to the concussion. I know I didn't find that out until just a few weeks ago.
    No, you just aggressively went after anyone that pointed out he may be a regression candidate and a significant one at that. Many neutral projection systems put him at this as well and you were quick to dismiss them as "insane".

    As Nick points out - he's not hitting for even gap power at this point, his BABIP and K rate may be evidence of a weakening contact rate, and he's aging. My problem is how matter-of-factly you dismiss a legitimate concern after spending the offseason railing on anyone that was putting Mauer anyone near a .750 OPS. It's not particularly consistent to harp on people that there is "no reason" to expect that much regression from Mauer when there was, in fact, reasons. The very ones you laid out in this thread to take the exact opposite position you held earlier.

    Yeah, it's early, and I'm concerned. I was concerned this offseason as well. I'm hoping he starts doing some things to alleviate those concerns, that's all.

  4. #24
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    No, you just aggressively went after anyone that pointed out he may be a regression candidate and a significant one at that. Many neutral projection systems put him at this as well and you were quick to dismiss them as "insane".
    I still think predicting an OPS of .750 for Joe Mauer is way off-base. Three weeks of play, Levi. Three weeks of play.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    My problem is how matter-of-factly you dismiss a legitimate concern after spending the offseason railing on anyone that was putting Mauer anyone near a .750 OPS. It's not particularly consistent to harp on people that there is "no reason" to expect that much regression from Mauer when there was, in fact, reasons. The very ones you laid out in this thread to take the exact opposite position you held earlier.
    I didn't matter-of-factly dismiss anything. Here's the last sentence of my post, bolded in case you missed it:

    I'm a little concerned by how badly he's missing balls but I'll give it time and see if he comes around after being inactive for 6-7 months.


    There is absolutely nothing inconsistent with my opinion. I'm simply not lighting myself on fire and storming the town square over 19 games in April, no matter how bad he has looked thus far.

    But if you want to manufacture an opinion I never made about how Mauer would charge into 2014 with a 1.000 OPS through the first 20 games, have at it. Guys have bad months all the time and I'd be surprised if you can find one example of me getting either too excited or too dismayed over a 20 game stretch of play. This is no different.

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  6. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I think you have that backwards. HR are not included in BABIP, as they are not in play.
    But home runs are an indication of hitting the ball hard, correct? Home runs aren't in play, but would indicate he's hitting the ball well, just flying out at a higher rate than his career numbers would suggest he normally would.

  7. #26
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sconnie View Post
    But home runs are an indication of hitting the ball hard, correct? Home runs aren't in play, but would indicate he's hitting the ball well, just flying out at a higher rate than his career numbers would suggest he normally would.
    Absolutely, I just thought you may have misunderstood how BABIP is calculated.

    I agree with your general point that his BABIP should climb if he continues to hit like he has thus far this season.

  8. #27
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Ihere is absolutely nothing inconsistent with my opinion. I'm simply not lighting myself on fire and storming the town square over 19 games in April, no matter how bad he has looked thus far.
    Which no one did and if I had suggested the same degree of hyperbole to you would a little birdie be in my inbox? I said I was worried because he doesn't look like the old Mauer and with concussions this is a valid fear. One all Minnesotans should understand. Your "well duh!" response was in direct opposition to your aggressive offseason rejections of any worries about him. I don't believe Mauer's issues are a "well duh!" matter and frankly don't appreciate that approach to a valid concern.

    Unless of course you have actual insight as to win his worrisome issues will abate. In which case please share that in whatever "well duh!" matter you'd like.

  9. #28
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    My post was "well, duh"? Really, Levi. Here's the post again.

    Mauer has been a slow starter in his career. He's also returning to play two months off in 2013 followed by an offseason where he didn't train much at all, if I remember correctly.

    It's not surprising that he's rusty. I'm a little concerned by how badly he's missing balls but I'll give it time and see if he comes around after being inactive for 6-7 months.


    Pretty hard to see a "well, duh" in there any way I look at it. I mention he's a slow starter, mention that his strikeouts are mildly concerning, and say that I'll reserve judgment until more games are played.

    I posted an opinion and did it respectfully. You then turned around and made the argument about me.

    Is this the part where I bring up your Kyle Gibson argument from early March? Is that appropriate?

  10. #29
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    My post was "well, duh"? Really, Levi. Here's the post again.
    That's exactly how it comes off. As has most of your Mauer-centric arguments lately. Your past tone on the same player and the same issue seem relevant to me.

    I'll feel better about Mauer when he starts to look like Mauer again. Right now he doesn't.

  11. #30
    Having some SP depth is not a bad thing. I don't scratch my head over signing Pelf. I scratch my head over worry about a lost investment when one pitcher doesn't pan out. The whole point of depth is insurance when someone inevitably fails.

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  13. #31
    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Which no one did and if I had suggested the same degree of hyperbole to you would a little birdie be in my inbox? I said I was worried because he doesn't look like the old Mauer and with concussions this is a valid fear. One all Minnesotans should understand. Your "well duh!" response was in direct opposition to your aggressive offseason rejections of any worries about him. I don't believe Mauer's issues are a "well duh!" matter and frankly don't appreciate that approach to a valid concern.

    Unless of course you have actual insight as to win his worrisome issues will abate. In which case please share that in whatever "well duh!" matter you'd like.
    Please tone this down and be less personal, lest that little birdie visit your inbox.

  14. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by wabene View Post
    Having some SP depth is not a bad thing. I don't scratch my head over signing Pelf. I scratch my head over worry about a lost investment when one pitcher doesn't pan out. The whole point of depth is insurance when someone inevitably fails.
    Except when, you know, a bad player blocks a good player, because that bad player is signe for more than 1 year, and is on the 40 man roster, which, btw, happens all the time with this team.
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #33
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    That's exactly how it comes off. As has most of your Mauer-centric arguments lately. Your past tone on the same player and the same issue seem relevant to me.
    And, again, 20 games of .680 OPS play don't invalidate my argument in any way. I'm not sure why you are blowing 20 April games out of proportion.

    Hey, it's possible that Mauer continues to flounder compared to his previous standard. It's also entirely possible that this is a minor blip in his performance and he'll be rocking an .800+ OPS by June 1st.

    Either way, it doesn't excuse the tone you took with me after I posted a quite reasonable post that, when looked at objectively, was not even remotely controversial.

  16. #34
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Glad I missed all the personal jabs. I'll let the moderators take care of that. I just don't understand why reasonable arguments in favor of giving guys the benefit of the doubt are greeted with flames, but arguments to the contrary are liked a dozen times (reasonable or not). How often must we cite the rule of small sample sizes to people who favor statistical analysis over any other form of evidence?
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  17. #35
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Glad I missed all the personal jabs. I'll let the moderators take care of that. I just don't understand why reasonable arguments in favor of giving guys the benefit of the doubt are greeted with flames, but arguments to the contrary are liked a dozen times (reasonable or not). How often must we cite the rule of small sample sizes to people who favor statistical analysis over any other form of evidence?
    A small sample size doesn't mean you can't worry. There are reasonable arguments to be made on both sides of his struggles so it is justifiable to be on either side of the issue. I don't dismiss people's confidence in him to rebound, but I don't think genuine concern about him should be dismissed either.

  18. #36
    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    A small sample size doesn't mean you can't worry. There are reasonable arguments to be made on both sides of his struggles so it is justifiable to be on either side of the issue. I don't dismiss people's confidence in him to rebound, but I don't think genuine concern about him should be dismissed either.
    And concern has been expressed on BOTH sides, but debates ensue as to 'how much' and that gets ridiculous. This kind of nitpicking gets things way off track very quickly and turns personal. So, for now, humour this moderator and leave the nitpicking aside, stick to your arguments, stick to the topic, and leave the personal stuff behind. And that goes for everyone, posters, moderators and admins.

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