04-06-2014, 08:09 PM #1
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DISCLAIMER: I UNDERSTAND WE ARE ONLY 6 GAMES INTO THE SEASON. I UNDERSTAND SMALL SAMPLE SIZES ARE IN PLAY.
I AM NOT MAKING, NOR ATTEMPTING TO MAKE ANY "BROAD", "SWEEPING", OR "FINAL" CONCLUSIONS.
(IT'S SAD THAT I HAVE TO POST THIS DISCLAIMER SIMPLY BECAUSE I WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS BASEBALL BEFORE JUNE)
So given the bad performances we've seen so far from the pen, how soon do you think we could possibly see a move? And who do you think would be the first one up?
Tonkin looked great during his call up last year, looked even better in ST, and he just threw another 2 hitless innings with a 2:0 K/BB ratio today.
I was a little (only a little though) surprised he didn't make the club out of ST, given Antony's comments about guys stepping up and winning a job. Of course, in hindsight those comments seem a little hollow given some of the players we did take north.
If he keeps putting up numbers in AAA, and guys in the MLB pen keep struggling, how soon do you think we could see a move? I'd really like to see him up here.
04-06-2014, 08:18 PM #2
End of April at the earliest. Bullpens are volatile creatures; it's bad form to cast judgment on the 3-5 innings a single guy might get in two weeks' time.
04-06-2014, 08:52 PM #3
Let's consider who he (Tonkin) would replace (assuming no injury):
Perkins - No.
Burton - Long Leash, not being demoted.
Duensing - Long Leash, not being demoted.
Fien - has an option, but after 1 1/2 strong seasons, should get a long leash.
Swarzak - Out of options, strong last year, should have a long leash.
Thielbar - has two options, but after last season, should be given time to make adjustments, at least end of April, maybe longer.
Deduno - remains a starting option, out of options, I would think he'll get at least a month.
They could go to 13 pitchers, but I would think they'll want to go through the rotation again a couple of times and hope they'll be getting through 6-7 most nights.
So, my deduction is that it'd be at least 4-6 weeks.
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04-06-2014, 08:57 PM #4
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End of April to mid May sounds fine to me, I was fearing the answers were going to be later than that.
Outside of hoping he gains trade value though, I guess I don't understand why Burton should have such a long leash.
Sure, he was pretty good in '12, but he wasn't very good last year, and his career numbers are pretty mediocre, at best. On top of that his age means its unlikely he'll be a significant part of our next contending team, where as Tonkin hopefully will be.
04-06-2014, 09:25 PM #5
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After last season's bullpen "success", it makes sense that there isn't much room for Tonkin. However, it should be anticipated that there will be regression to the mean in this group. Because they aren't a really hard-throwing group, there isn't a lot of margin for error, because their peripherals were not as good, it should be expected they slip some, and then there is age--Perkins, Fien, Burton, Deduno, and Duensing are all over 30. I don't know if that makes them candidates to regress or candidates to be injured, but it will be tough to sustain above average performance. Swarzak, to me, represents a classic case for regression. He far outperformed expectations and projections and was used a ton last year. Tonkin will get his shot, probably sooner than later. I really liked what I saw of Guerra in the spring, as well. I hope he gets a chance.
04-06-2014, 09:45 PM #6
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There's not much intrigue in this area. Since Deduno is the 6th starter, Tonkin comes up when either a starter or reliever hits the DL. And pitching being what it is, that means he will spend most of the year with the Twins (assuming he himself is healthy and pitching OK).
04-07-2014, 08:57 AM #7
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It's way to early to see any trends with the bullpen as some of the arms are struggling, and the weather has been cold. However, if I were running this organization a couple of things I'd of been leary of coming into spring training would have been at the forefront. First, I'd never swallowed Perkins sales pitch for an extension. There was no need for it, and that will come back to bite us in the end. Secondly, I'd have been concerned with Burton. Last year wasn't so good. He seems to be either on, or way off. As the setup man, that's not a good situation. A week in and it looks to be the same. If it continues, Tonkin should get a chance to show what he can do in that spot. Burton's long leash is growing shorter in my book.
04-07-2014, 09:02 AM #8
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The longer they can have guys from their own system not on the MLB roster, the better I guess......it would be great if they used the bullpen as the low cost place, and promoted guys from their system, and spent more mone on, you know, hitters and fielders......but that strategy seems to be lost on them.Lighten up Francis....
04-07-2014, 09:24 AM #9
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Bring up Meyer
04-07-2014, 10:07 AM #10
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Not a fan of Burton at all. He's not dependable. Especially in an 8th inning role. Fien had a lousy 2nd half of 2013 and IMO hasn't looked good this year.
Would really like to see Tonkin take Burtons role.....soon.
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mike wants wins (04-07-2014)
04-07-2014, 11:18 AM #11
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The Twins roster has built-in flexibility here. I like the versatility of having Tonkin, Pressly, Guerrier, and even Ibarra in the bullpen down in Rochester. Over the course of the month we may see a starter stretch a hammy, or some other minor/major injury. Enter Deduno into the rotation, methinks, if he's stretched out enough.
I would also expect to see 13 pitchers on the roster when the schedule tightens and days off become more rare. For example, there are 13 games over 13 days coming up at the end of the month (4/29 to 5/11). If weather postponements stack up into doubleheaders, we could see another arm on the roster sooner rather than later.