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Thread: Article: Moving Goalposts

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    Free agents who are good enough to look for long term deals aren't worried about prospects behind them.
    You don't think players and their agents do a critical analysis of an opportunity with massive career ramification?

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    And you wonder why some of us look like pessimists compared to you?

    The Twins would basically have to go something like 7-for-8 in converting their closest position player and starting pitcher prospects into MLB starters by 2016 in order for this to be true.

    As good as the farm system is, that would take an incredible amount of luck, particularly when only one of the prospects in question (Pinto) has appeared above AA, and in fact only 3-4 other key prospects have even played at the AA level so far.

    I'm pretty sure MLB free agents aren't counting on that (particularly those signing 1 to 3 year deals, which is the vast majority), and I hope that kind of outlook isn't driving our MLB-level decision-making either.
    spycake, I gotta call you on the 7 for 8 thing. Studies have been done. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Stewart have a beter than 75% shot. If, as appears quite likely, we draft a stud college pitcher, he goes in the same category and 2016 isn't out of the question. At this juncture, will you concede that among Arcia, Pinto, Hicks,Gibson, and Tonkin, we can go 3 for 5? And then, there is a group, maybe a half dozen or so, of at 50/50 and an equal number at about 25%.

    Plouffe and Parmelee were 25% types. We might have 20 prospects more highly regarded than they were in AA.

    FA's will regard the Twins as a viable option soon.

    And yes, I DO wonder why some of you look like pessimists compared to cmath.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Studies have been done. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Stewart have a beter than 75% shot.
    Gonna need a source on that one.

    Does this mean better than a 75% shot to ever make a Major League roster? Better than a 75% shot to be the superstars we all hope they'll be? Better than 75% shot to be above replacement level?

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I'm with Mr. Brooks. It isn't the FO job to try to make the team better, it is their job to make it better. Two years ago, I was told to quit being so pessimistic, that 2014 would be better. Last year I was told to be patient, that next year or 2015 would be better. Now people are saying 2016 or 2017 will be better. It's fine if some of you are happy about that. It's fine if some people will pay serious money to watch a terrible product because they love baseball. But its also fine if some of us don't.
    mikey, mikey, TRUST me, 2014 WILL be better.

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  6. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    At this point I think the backup plan is for the PR department to buy more lipstick!

    What PR department. If there's any area of the business at which the Twins are completely inept, it's in doing PR.

  7. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    btw, do people feel the goal posts have been moved back a year or two? Are they really now looking at 2017 to be good? Or are people contending, like they did last year, that they'll be contending in 2015 or 16 at the latest?
    you know my vote...
    A .500 type team and improving in 2015, along with KC, while Detroit hits the skids and the other two remain "competitive".

  8. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    spycake, I gotta call you on the 7 for 8 thing. Studies have been done. Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Stewart have a beter than 75% shot. If, as appears quite likely, we draft a stud college pitcher, he goes in the same category and 2016 isn't out of the question. At this juncture, will you concede that among Arcia, Pinto, Hicks,Gibson, and Tonkin, we can go 3 for 5? And then, there is a group, maybe a half dozen or so, of at 50/50 and an equal number at about 25%.
    75% shot of what, exactly?

    And you're already counting an as-yet-undrafted guy?

    I just eyeballed the top of this consensus prospect list, tossed out the rookie leaguers and Polanco, and added recent grads Pinto, Hicks, and Gibson I guess:
    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...p-61-prospects

    That's nine "top" prospects.

    As of now, the Twins basically have about 7 of 9 lineup spots, and 3 of 5 rotation spots, unclaimed for 2016. (And that's being pretty generous to Mauer, Dozier, Nolasco, and Hughes). That's 10 starting positions to fill.

    Looking at it closer, I guess that means we'd have to go 9 for our top 9. And SS would still be open.

    I hope to goodness that this kind of projecting isn't a driving force behind our FA decision making.

  9. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    We'll have to agree to disagree. You can't always trade people. And, as we have discussed in numerous threads, managers tend to favor veterans. I could cite a half dozen cases in which the better player was blocked by the veteran. The two most egregious are Castro/Bartlett and Bautista/Cuddyer. But there were many others. It leads to worse teams, not better. I don't care about dollars. I want that "clear path to the majors" (to use Antony's phrase) for the best players.

    Maybe it's bad GMing. But it has ever been that way for the Twins.
    You can almost always trade people if you are willing to eat salary.

    And if you are paying them peanuts on short term deals like Castro and Batista, you don't even have to trade them, you can just cut them.

    And Batista didn't really block Cuddyer -- they had already moved Cuddy off third.

    If you want to cite more cases, go ahead. If these are your most egregious, I don't think it's that big of an issue.

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  11. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by S. View Post
    Gonna need a source on that one.

    Does this mean better than a 75% shot to ever make a Major League roster? Better than a 75% shot to be the superstars we all hope they'll be? Better than 75% shot to be above replacement level?
    Can't give you the exact info, but I'm sure others can. I recall BA as being one source, maybe BPro another. The gist in one was tiering the draft, and finding that Players drafted #'s 1-10 were at 75%, 11-20 at just under 50%, and 21-30 a ways below 25%. A second focused on an historical review of past BA Top 100, with breakdowns. I'm basing part of my own optimism on placing 10 prospects still with us on various Top 100 lists over the last two years, all ranked higher than #52 on at least one list, and none of them were named Thorpe, Kepler, Tonkin, May, Santana,Melotakis, Harrison, Polanco, Goodrum, Walker, Jorge, or Gonsalves, all of whom have made somebody's Top 10 Twins prospect list. Add our #5 pick to my reasons for optimism....not immediate wins...optimism.
    Last edited by birdwatcher; 03-27-2014 at 01:19 PM.

  12. #90
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    I believe one of the studies looked at 2WAR as its threshhold, but don't recall specifics.

  13. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    75% shot of what, exactly?

    And you're already counting an as-yet-undrafted guy?

    I just eyeballed the top of this consensus prospect list, tossed out the rookie leaguers and Polanco, and added recent grads Pinto, Hicks, and Gibson I guess:
    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...p-61-prospects

    That's nine "top" prospects.

    As of now, the Twins basically have about 7 of 9 lineup spots, and 3 of 5 rotation spots, unclaimed for 2016. (And that's being pretty generous to Mauer, Dozier, Nolasco, and Hughes). That's 10 starting positions to fill.

    Looking at it closer, I guess that means we'd have to go 9 for our top 9. And SS would still be open.

    I hope to goodness that this kind of projecting isn't a driving force behind our FA decision making.
    But the Twins aren't talking about improving the team strictly through the farm system, and I certainly am not. Yes, they have a boatload of holes. One of my favorite memories of all time was living downtown and savoring the 1987 WS championship. And that team had a lot of holes, so don't think in terms of complete perfection here.
    Last edited by birdwatcher; 03-27-2014 at 01:22 PM.

  14. #92
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    Twins waived Parmelee and Presley (claimed by Astros). Looks like Bartlett might actually make this team. Genius...

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  16. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    But the Twins aren't talking about improving the team strictly through the farm system, and I certainly am not. Yes, they have a boatload of holes. One of my favorite memories of all time was living downtown and savoring the 1987 WS championship. And that team had a lot of holes, so don't think in terms of complete perfection here.
    If a team like the Twins, with ~2 decent position players under contract for 2015, is passing on free agents to hold roster spots for minor leaguers, then yes, that is counting too much on improvement through the farm system.

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  18. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    You can almost always trade people if you are willing to eat salary.
    I disagree. A lot of times, you have to just release them. Even after Correia had a career year, the Twins couldn't find any takers, according to Ryan. I don't know if he was willing to eat salary. But it is not always easy. You have to find a team that needs the player enough to make the trade.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  19. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I disagree. A lot of times, you have to just release them. Even after Correia had a career year, the Twins couldn't find any takers, according to Ryan. I don't know if he was willing to eat salary. But it is not always easy. You have to find a team that needs the player enough to make the trade.
    Pretty sure TR wasn't trying to give away Correia, they didn't need to clear his spot or salary. He was almost certainly looking for value back.

  20. #96
    I'm a first time poster here but have read the comments for a long time. I'm a 45 year fan of Minnesota sports, but it is getting to be tough to be a Twins fan anymore. I live in Greater Minnesota but have purchased a 20 game 4 tix pack for the past several years and spent the time and effort to go to the games. I dropped it this year.

    I just don't know what the administration's hang-up with the young players is. I understand keeping players under team control as long as possible, etc. such as when Washington waited 6 weeks into 2012 to bring up Harper which allowed them to keep him under team control for another year. However, the Twins don't seem to want to bring up anybody with the exception of Hicks last year.

    The Wild are fun to watch this year with the excitement of young guys like Coyle, Granlund, Kuemper, Haula, Brodin, etc. They make mistakes, but they add excitement. The Twins just keep recycling the same old guys through the system which doesn't give me much incentive to buy tickets. I read on here that we fans were worried about which pitcher would be left off the team and we had to keep certain guys 'cause they were out of options. Face the facts, we have had the worst starting staff in the world. . who is going to claim Diamond and Worley, guys that cannot make that staff.

    I did some checking, free agency aside, players that could play were brought up under former administrations and let play. Here are some ages and minor league At Bats (prior to being called up) of some prominent Twins of the past -- Wynegar (20-659ab), Hrbek (21-1100 ab) Gaetti (23-1400 AB), Carew (21-940 Ab), Gagne (21, 1900Abs) and pitchers Viola (22-156 minor league innings) and Blyleven (19 - 194 IN). Here's a couple from other organizations such as Bryce Harper (19-450ab) and Mike Trout (19-1100 AB)

    Now we have guys in the minors who have already thrown their arms out such as Trevor May (677 minor league innings) and Kyle Gibson (425 minor league innings). Rosario 1400 abs, Sano 1400 abs) I say bring 'em up and let 'em play. I'm aware of the situations of Rosario and Sano now but when ready let 'em play see what they can do -- it can't be much worse than it is today.

    Anyway, you get how I feel!

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  22. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    If a team like the Twins, with ~2 decent position players under contract for 2015, is passing on free agents to hold roster spots for minor leaguers, then yes, that is counting too much on improvement through the farm system.
    But I believe it's a fallacy to pass that off as the logic. Saying they passed on free agents to hold roster spots for minor leaguers, spycake, is at best simple not true. And also your "2 decent position players in 2015" is a bit ungenerous, don't you think? Of the 9 positions, I count 5 that may very well be held by "decent" (in most observers' view) players in 2014, let alone 2015, although I grant you that one or two might fizzle. I'm not sure who YOUR two guys are. Mine are Mauer, Dozier, Arcia, Hicks, and Pinto, so that's 5, with Plouffe and Willingham and Kubel being really long shots. And yes, I'm banking on Sano, Buxton and maybe Rosario in 2015, so I'll take my chances with Kubel and Willingham for 2014 and say no to the likes of Kendry Morales, who solves little in the long run. Next off-season? There'll be room for another addition or two that make sense like Nolasco does.

  23. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakeside View Post
    I'm a first time poster here but have read the comments for a long time.
    Not to divert from the thread-topic or anything, but: Welcome!

  24. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by troyhobbs View Post
    Twins waived Parmelee and Presley (claimed by Astros). Looks like Bartlett might actually make this team. Genius...
    And that, along with Kubel have got me not buying any tickets and I have been a fan since 1961 (10 yrs. old back then).
    I believed the front office when they spoke of "no scholarships" any more....Bartlett and Kubel got exactly that

  25. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    But I believe it's a fallacy to pass that off as the logic. Saying they passed on free agents to hold roster spots for minor leaguers, spycake, is at best simple not true. ... And yes, I'm banking on Sano, Buxton and maybe Rosario in 2015, so I'll take my chances with Kubel and Willingham for 2014 and say no to the likes of Kendry Morales, who solves little in the long run. Next off-season? There'll be room for another addition or two that make sense like Nolasco does.
    Am I misreading? Or did you contradict yourself within the same post?
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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