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Thread: Worley to the Pirates

  1. #101
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    I have 0 issues with letting Worley walk for nothing, obviously if a single other team thought so they would have moved even a C level prospect for him.
    That's a false choice. It presumes that Worley or any other Twin has no value to the organization if they can't get a C prospect for them. That's empirically not true.

    All Worley had to do to have value for the Twins was to have more upside than a Rochester pitcher who is older or who has never succeeded at the MLB level or who has never even profiled as major leaguer. My guess is that Rochester will employ at least one pitcher in 2014 who fits all three of those criteria.

  2. #102
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    My guess is that Rochester will employ at least one pitcher in 2014 who fits all three of those criteria.
    How about at the start of 2014? Because that's when the decision had to be made. Hanging on to someone because he might excel a scrubini in July isn't a reason to keep him.

  3. #103
    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Bill Pohlad does produce Hollywood movies... maybe Worley will be indirectly responsible for funding the sequel "Another 12 Years a Slave"
    You must mean "12 Years a Slave: Age of Ultron."

  4. #104
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    How about at the start of 2014? Because that's when the decision had to be made. Hanging on to someone because he might excel a scrubini in July isn't a reason to keep him.
    See your point. Was thinking of the rotation eventually but yeah, probably at the start there will be a middle reliever who nobody sees as having a major league career.

    In fact, if you increase the threshold to 'likely to contribute to a contender', there's already a familiar name who everybody is pulling for but expecting virtually nothing from down the road: Guerrier.

    Obviously expectations were minimal after last season, but the failure to employ Worley in a bullpen role to try to salvage him will still puzzle me even if he's out of baseball in a year or two, which is probably not a whole lot less likely than him resurrecting his career.
    Last edited by LaBombo; 03-26-2014 at 01:18 PM.

  5. #105
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    After he cleared waivers, they said Worley would go to Rochester to pitch in the bullpen. Then they signed Guerrier back. Then they sold Worley to the Pirates. I don't think that chain of events is an accident. They have no room for him in the Rochester bullpen. That's how little they think of him. If you can name one pitcher slated for that bullpen who has less upside than Vance Worley, you might have a point. I cannot. These are the six relievers they have (assuming no promotions from AA):

    Tonkin
    Ibarra
    Pressly
    Raley
    Guerra
    Guerrier
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  6. #106
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by savvyspy View Post
    While the Twins FO might be one of the worst in professional sports from just about every measure
    Hyperbole much? The Twins front office certainly deserves some condemnation for the past three seasons but this same group of people is what brought the city playoff seasons six years out of ten.

    I'm not sure how you can even compare them to the perennial doormats of the sporting world.

    For example, the team that plays 41 home games about 200 yards from Target Field.

  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    That's a false choice. It presumes that Worley or any other Twin has no value to the organization if they can't get a C prospect for them. That's empirically not true.

    All Worley had to do to have value for the Twins was to have more upside than a Rochester pitcher who is older or who has never succeeded at the MLB level or who has never even profiled as major leaguer. My guess is that Rochester will employ at least one pitcher in 2014 who fits all three of those criteria.
    I don't quite understand the false choice wording but if no other team is even willing to claim him & he's not good enough to make the Twins roster. What value does he have? Not enough to take up a roster spot & continue to get scorched by AAA hitters even.

    Honestly it seems somewhat obvious they wanted to put him in AAA & he was going to have to earn a starting spot there even & he had no interest so he asked to be traded/released. Otherwise why even try to reassign him after he cleared waivers over just outright cutting him.

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    If you can name one pitcher slated for that bullpen who has less upside than Vance Worley, you might have a point. I cannot. These are the six relievers they have (assuming no promotions from AA):

    Tonkin
    Ibarra
    Pressly
    Raley
    Guerra
    Guerrier
    Deolis Guerra has less upside. He has been in the minors for 8 years now and is coming off a significant shoulder surgery. He does not crack prospect lists anymore:

    http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/24...spects-Summary

    I would absolutely prefer starting Deolis in AA or dumping him outright over selling Worley to the Pirates.
    Last edited by jharaldson; 03-26-2014 at 02:43 PM. Reason: Spelling

  9. #109
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jharaldson View Post
    Deolis Guerra has less upside. He has been in the minors for 8 years now and is coming off a significant shoulder surgery. He does not crack prospect lists anymore:

    http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/24...spects-Summary

    I would absolutely prefer starting Deolis in AA or dumping him outright over selling Worley to the Pirates.
    Guerra is younger, throws harder, and, unlike Worley, has an out pitch. Worley does not have on plus pitch. He's done.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  10. #110
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    If you can name one pitcher slated for that bullpen who has less upside than Vance Worley, you might have a point. I cannot. These are the six relievers they have (assuming no promotions from AA):

    Tonkin
    Ibarra
    Pressly
    Raley
    Guerra
    Guerrier
    To me, in this context at least, 'upside' means potential to show lasting improvement, not have a better season than last year or career norms. Otherwise, what's the point of the discussion? One good year in AAA relief has very little value to the future of the franchise.

    So looking at your list in that regard, Guerrier is obviously off, and I would argue as jharaldson did that after last year's derailment and 8 years in the minors without earning a look in the majors, Guerra is too.

    Raley looks to me as if the Twins had lost Diamond in the Rule V and wanted to go out and get the next closest thing, so that's a no.

    Ibarra is a marginally better prospect than Raley, and probably makes the cut just because he's a lefty.

    Pressly barely makes it as well, primarily on the strength of a good 2013 despite weak peripherals.

    So basically half that group looks to me to have little to no upside relative to what Worley has done or even relative to the high end projection of a Worley converted to relief.

    Not everybody turns into Glen Perkins just by going to the pen, but it's not rare for failed starters to succeed in relief.
    Last edited by LaBombo; 03-26-2014 at 03:18 PM.

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Guerra is younger, throws harder, and, unlike Worley, has an out pitch. Worley does not have on plus pitch. He's done.
    Can you provide any data to show Guerra throws harder than Worley? Fangraphs has Worley at 94 max and 89.4 average as a starter which normally increases when moved to a relief role (compare to Perkins):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...435&position=P

    I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013

    Guerra no longer has much upside and has lost velocity since his teenage peak
    http://aarongleeman.com/2013/01/24/t...0-39-38-37-36/

    Worley has had over 260 innings of major league success and has more upside than an 8 year minor league free agent coming off life threatening shoulder surgery.

    In an effort to forge an agreement I will stipulate that both guys are unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors again and that we are splitting hairs over who has a 5% chance and who has a 2% chance.

  12. This user likes jharaldson's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    LaBombo (03-26-2014)

  13. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Guerra is younger, throws harder, and, unlike Worley, has an out pitch. Worley does not have on plus pitch. He's done.
    I tend to agree with you here. Guerra actually has movement on his pitches and he looked great in spring training. I think that if his shoulder stays healthy he is going to make his doubters look foolish. If he stays healthy I would not be surprised to see him get called up this year.

  14. #113
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jharaldson View Post
    I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013
    Speaking of Gleeman, he isn't terribly high on Ibarra either. From this past fall:

    "Speaking of left-handers with nice-looking ERAs and poor secondary numbers, the Twins added 24-year-old reliever Edgar Ibarra to the 40-man roster. He posted a 1.93 ERA this year between Double-A and Triple-A to convince the Twins he needed protecting from the Rule 5 draft, but he's not a hard-thrower and a 54-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 innings was unimpressive. Ibarra also had a 4.69 ERA with poor control and just 69 strikeouts in 79 innings last season."

    As far as I can see, neither Guerra or Ibarra cracked his top 40 prospect list.

  15. #114
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GCTF View Post
    Any word if the Pohlads will be using the cash to fund a Broadway play?
    Or the movie studio

  16. #115
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jharaldson View Post
    Deolis Guerra has less upside. He has been in the minors for 8 years now and is coming off a significant shoulder surgery. He does not crack prospect lists anymore:

    http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/24...spects-Summary
    I would absolutely prefer starting Deolis in AA or dumping him outright over selling Worley to the Pirates.
    I think Guerra will pitch for the Twins sometime this year. He looked very good in Ft. Myers and he is reportedly healthy, which is the reason why he has struggled and also why he isn't considered much of a prospect.

  17. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by jharaldson View Post
    Can you provide any data to show Guerra throws harder than Worley? Fangraphs has Worley at 94 max and 89.4 average as a starter which normally increases when moved to a relief role (compare to Perkins):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...435&position=P

    I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013



    http://aarongleeman.com/2013/01/24/t...0-39-38-37-36/

    Worley has had over 260 innings of major league success and has more upside than an 8 year minor league free agent coming off life threatening shoulder surgery.

    In an effort to forge an agreement I will stipulate that both guys are unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors again and that we are splitting hairs over who has a 5% chance and who has a 2% chance.
    Gleeman is wrong as often as he is right, but thanks just the same for your own voice of reason, I put much more stock in how well you properly parse out this situation mathematically.

  18. #117
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jharaldson View Post
    Can you provide any data to show Guerra throws harder than Worley? Fangraphs has Worley at 94 max and 89.4 average as a starter which normally increases when moved to a relief role (compare to Perkins):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...435&position=P

    I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013



    http://aarongleeman.com/2013/01/24/t...0-39-38-37-36/

    Worley has had over 260 innings of major league success and has more upside than an 8 year minor league free agent coming off life threatening shoulder surgery.

    In an effort to forge an agreement I will stipulate that both guys are unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors again and that we are splitting hairs over who has a 5% chance and who has a 2% chance.
    I was at the game last Tuesday. Worley hit 91 a couple of times and mostly sat at 88. He did not get one swinging strike in two plus innings of pitching. 11 hits, 7 outs. Even the outs were loud. Guerra came in and sat at 93. Struck out two swinging in one inning of pitching. I counted eight swinging strikes for five hitters.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  19. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Speaking of Gleeman, he isn't terribly high on Ibarra either. From this past fall:

    "Speaking of left-handers with nice-looking ERAs and poor secondary numbers, the Twins added 24-year-old reliever Edgar Ibarra to the 40-man roster. He posted a 1.93 ERA this year between Double-A and Triple-A to convince the Twins he needed protecting from the Rule 5 draft, but he's not a hard-thrower and a 54-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 innings was unimpressive. Ibarra also had a 4.69 ERA with poor control and just 69 strikeouts in 79 innings last season."

    As far as I can see, neither Guerra or Ibarra cracked his top 40 prospect list.
    In this case, I concur with Gleeman on Ibarra, Ibarra had a really strong scoreless streak going in New Britain last summer- the only sign of dominance at any point in his career, but he doesn't even have a great split, so anything they get from him will be a bonus and hopefully at least a decent placeholder, I would hope they could trade him at a high point as part of a package- which is why they should be shopping around more in Rule 5, FA and waiver-claiming situations in search of live arms, especially lefties.

  20. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I was at the game last Tuesday. Worley hit 91 a couple of times and mostly sat at 88. He did not get one swinging strike in two plus innings of pitching. 11 hits, 7 outs. Even the outs were loud. Guerra came in and sat at 93. Struck out two swinging in one inning of pitching. I counted eight swinging strikes for five hitters.
    So, IYO, is the loss of velocity evidence that Worley still isn't healthy?

  21. #120
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    So, IYO, is the loss of velocity evidence that Worley still isn't healthy?
    Yes. No one wants to admit it, because it's not in anyone's best interest, least of all Worley.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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