03-24-2014, 04:22 PM #141
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I'll say it! This will be the best season in four years.
The best rotation in four years, a healthy Maur, and one or two other contributers on offence will be enough for a 73 win season.
03-24-2014, 04:29 PM #142
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Last edited by cmathewson; 03-24-2014 at 04:33 PM."If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
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03-24-2014, 04:53 PM #143
Nolasco- 4.00 ERA 3.1 fWAR 210 (3.67/yr avg. WAR)
Hughes- 4.33 ERA 1.8 fWAR ("Out of New York" effect)
Correia- 4.25 ERA 1 fWAR (Contract year, 4 months w/ Twins)
Pelfrey- 4.19 ERA 3 fWAR (2013- 2.1 WAR/3.99 FIP/3.59 ERA in July/Aug)
Gibson- 4.50 ERA 1.1 WAR (Like Pelf, 2nd year back from TJ)
Meyer- 4.20 ERA 1.3 WAR (That's the usually negative ZIPS projection)
Deduno- 3.75 ERA 0.7 WAR (Spot start stats only)
That's 12 fWAR from your top 7 starters.
Nolasco- 210 IP/33 GS
Hughes- 185 IP/30 GS
Correia- 125 IP/20 GS
Pelfrey- 190 IP/31 GS
Gibson- 110 IP/20 GS
Meyer- 110 IP/20 GS
Deduno- 50 IP/8GS
2014 SP totals- 980 IP/162 GS/~4.25 ERA/12 WAR
2013 SP totals- 871 IP/162 GS/5.26 ERA/4.6 WAR
Obviously, that's potentially more than just technically right. And the extra 109 IP eases a lot of stress on the bullpen from which you expect significant regression (overall, with the potential new arms coming in, I disagree with that conclusion). No pie in the sky career years in this forecast and no starts from the PJ Walters/Cole DeVries/Liam Hendriks/Pedro Hernandez fringy crew.
03-24-2014, 05:02 PM #144
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Let's put this good fan/bad fan meme to rest please.
03-24-2014, 05:08 PM #145
Well, there you have it. If you only cook the books so every pitcher has a slightly better than average year, there are no injuries, and luck is neutral we'll win 68/69 games.
I'm not sure that had the effect on my pessimism you intended.
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mike wants wins (03-25-2014)
03-24-2014, 05:14 PM #146
So in answering the OP's topic, the Rotation stands a good chance to be the best in the last 4 years, and provides evidence for a win total in the low 70's (which is my prediciton).
Last edited by jokin; 03-24-2014 at 05:16 PM.
03-24-2014, 05:15 PM #147
I'd prefer to put this to rest, but I have to point out that some sort of "fan hierarchy" was hardly the main point of my initial post. I griped about all the pessimism and then wrote a longwinded rundown of why I thought the Twins wouldn't be worse than last year. Another poster chose to take one line out of 50 an make an issue of it so I responded. Regardless, I am ready to talk about something else if you all are.
03-24-2014, 05:25 PM #148
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I would characterize it as glass-half-empty fans vs glass-with-a-mouthful-of-backwash fans. I have only seen one glass-half-full post."If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
03-24-2014, 05:33 PM #149
Even after you gave virtually every starter a full season projection (no injuries) and better than career-norm performances (certainly better than the previous few years in almost all cases) - you still barely account for the team's luck last year. I don't know how that can lead to optimism unless you believe the team will be 5 games lucky again next year.
You're entitled to that, maybe their bullpen is the key to that, but I wouldn't bank on it.
03-24-2014, 05:38 PM #150
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This thread reads like a contest to see who can be the most bleak, as if it's some kind of race to the bottom of projecting win totals. I have no idea if the Twins will be better or worse. I think the pitching will be notably better. I think the offense will be slightly better. I just don't see so many terrible offensive seasons from last year repeating themselves this year.
Call me unrealistic, call me overoptimistic, call me inattentive to what's happened during Spring Training (which would be true because Spring Training stats and results are meaningless).
I'm just really, really excited that Twins baseball is almost here again!
03-24-2014, 06:07 PM #151
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03-24-2014, 06:16 PM #152
Also, all these arguments sound the same:
Nolasco/Hughes/Pelfry/Gibson just HAVE to be better than Hendricks, Hernandez, Albers,Worley
[you projected](certainly better than the previous few years in almost all cases)
Nope, not true.
Nolasco, projected lower than last year.
Hughes, projected on a bounceback at slighly worse than his decent 2012 numbers.
Pelfrey, projected lower than his 2013 July/Aug ERA and lower than his 3.99 FIP of 2013.
Correia, projected slightly lower than last year- in a contract year.
Deduno, projected basically the same as last year, pretty doable in a diminished SP role.
Meyer, I straight up used the usually negative ZIPS projection.
Gibson, you got me, I am optimistic that he can start 20 games with a 4.50 ERA.
These are basic facts, grounded far more in reality than your comparison of this year's rotation to Hendricks, Hernandez, Albers, Worley.
Even after you gave virtually every starter a full season projection (no injuries) and better than career-norm performances
03-24-2014, 06:38 PM #153
jokin - you literally projected them all but Hughes to be better than their career averages and for none of them to get hurt. It's not unrealistic, but it's clearly optimistic. The point being, even granting that....the team is still marginally better unless they get lucky again next year. Even cooking the books on the optimistic side doesn't yield a real impressive result. That's the issue.
My post was just a comical comparison of how we keep hearing the same arguments about how the guys replaced the previous year will make the team way better. We heard it "had" to happen last year too and it didn't because optimistic projections insist on ignoring injuries and assume progression, not regression or the unanticipated.
I think it'll probably be a bit better, I'm just dubious of how much until several of these guys show that they are an actual upgrade.
03-24-2014, 07:21 PM #154
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My takes, FWIW.
They play 'em for a reason. All 162 of them. There are big surprises every year, players and teams, both positive and negative. I am excited, very excited, for the future of our beloved team over the next few seasons based on the talent currently on the roster, knocking on the door, and coming down the street a year or two away from knocking. Realistically, if HALF of the Twins top 20 prospects fall by the wayside, the other 10-ish, with youngsters up now, the Twins will still be putting an exciting, quality and competitive team on the field soon. (Select trades and FA's could supplement as well)
But to THIS season.
Consider me an optimist or glass half full fan. I love my team to perform well in ST, make a statement, and get the world excited. But history has shown over and over again than records in ST are meaningless for far too many reasons to even delve in to. Many are the teams to have positive and negative ST records, only to reverse said numbers when the season plays out.
Not getting too involved in numbers and statistics, which can be played different ways, and just assuming health, (always a factor in ANY sport) the Twins bullpen should be quite solid this year. Overworked mightily, they still factored as a strong unit last season overall. They should be no worse this season, should be better when not so stretched, and would seem to have some decent reinforcements available in the minors. (Guerra, Tonkin, Ibarra, Hoffman, Johnson)
Barring some total collapse, Nolasco, Hughes, Correia (at least to begin the season), Pelfrey (further removed from his TJ recovery) and Gibson make up the best rotation this team has had in at least a few seasons. And there is no doubt winning and competitiveness begins with SP. There are also future possibles such as Deduno, Meyer, Darnell, May and Summers possibly.
There are some questions about the defense, but C should be solid, as well as 1B, SS, 2B and CF.
The biggest question is probably the offense. To be honest, not to simplify or do a cop-out, but as stated before, it simply would be almost impossible to be worse than last year. Choices have to be made. Not talking all-star status, but for a rebuilding team, you either need a talented young player establishing himself at a spot, or a solid place holder for a more talented player about ready to take over, or a quality veteran producer helping your team win and provide an example, helping set a winning/competitive tone for the future.
Some of those pieces are in place with Mauer, Dozier, Arcia and Hicks and Pinto (presumably and probably) with Suzuki offering an experienced and helping hand, and, Plouffe, optimistically, providing at least something decent offensively and defensively while waiting for the arrival of Sano. Floriman at SS is debatable and a very hot topic. But in the short term, he does provide the necessary defense needed. Hiding in the #9 hole with some speed and at least a little potential, things aren't all that bad.
I feel the biggest problem offensively, to be honest, is LF and DH. If those two positions could be settled, I think we'd all feel a lot better about this team's offensive potential, and thus, competitive potential overall. There is some potential there, I suppose. But these are the two spots that truly concern me, and want to drain my half-full glass.
03-24-2014, 07:23 PM #155
But let's talk about assumptions of regression. Pelfrey seems destined towards "regression", but positively, as does Hughes. I optimistically predicted some relative negative regression for Nolasco and Correia, just not all the way back to the mean. And clearly, I am granting far more value to recent results than career averages. And I'll plead guilty to assuming some realistic "progression" on the parts of both Gibson and Meyer (with the help of ZIPS and Steamer, I might add).
And while my prediciton isn't an "impressive result", I never claimed it to be- it's clearly not where the Twins need to be if they hope to compete sooner rather than later, but most importantly, that is not the point made by the OP in topicing this thread originally. In that respect, we appear to be talking past each other, but there's a crystal clear point, which is one we all should agree upon, Vance Worley was designated as the "Ace" of the staff just about one year ago, the pitching staff had only one direction to go from there- I am much more optimistic about the 2 proven acquisitions and the 2 up-and-comers producing decent years than I was about Worley- even before his meltdown last season.
Last edited by jokin; 03-24-2014 at 07:36 PM.
03-24-2014, 08:03 PM #156
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Stating the obvious: the thread title of "Will this team be the worst of the last four years?" clearly sends a negative message and virtually begs for responses in kind, and simply winning all of 67 this season would qualify as the best of the four years--hardly an endorsement of success.
03-24-2014, 09:20 PM #157
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03-24-2014, 09:33 PM #158
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03-24-2014, 09:38 PM #159
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03-24-2014, 10:05 PM #160
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Another comical comparison in which a poster's point it the brunt of the joke and the argument has been reduced to an absurd level.
Jokin, I appreciate the effort you put into your predictions and showing your work. I'm substantially less rosy about Hughes and Nolasco than even your "realistic with a side of pessimism" projections are, but it's notable that even with those two performing worse than your projections, the rotation still improves over last year.
Regarding the thread topic, I can selectively cite stats from the last 3 years along with non-statistic justifications that suggest this Twins team is in Wild Card contention, and possibly better if Nathan succumbs to injury and the Tigers stumble further. Dozier, Pinto, Willingham, Plouffe and Mauer all hitting like they have during the best stretches of their careers and Arcia and Hicks becoming the .280/30/100 and .250/15/OBP+SLG guys that various websites have projected as their ceilings would have this as a potent offense backed up by a rotation that's Top 5 in the AL if Nolsaco's performance starts to match his peripherals, Hughes and Pelfrey recover previous form and Gibson and Meyer achieve their ceilings.
I'd call that only slightly less likely than everyone performing the worst they have in the last decade, all five major prospects fans are counting on flaming out and the Twins losing 100 games-thus becoming the worst team of the last 4 years.
Another season in the low-to-mid 60s for wins is certainly plausible-though I'd like to see some more detail on exactly why these players will fail (as opposed to the more general "they'll be bad because players last year disappointed too", which I think is a fair characterization of some of what I've seen thus far).
I'd be more tempted to put money on the over. Willingham and Mauer are the only ones at an age where diminished skills tend to drag stats down. Pinto and possibly Dozier are the only ones with performances last year that were substantially better than prior performance would indicate. The overall record in the last few years was sandbagged by atrocious Septembers with injuries and poor play. The variety of players [potentially] playing for their jobs and/or in contract years, as opposed to in the past (Dozier, Plouffe, Hicks, Hughes, Gibson, Willingham, Correia) should help mitigate that.
I could see the team winning between 65-75 games without anything too abnormal happening, just within the bounds of reasonable outcomes for individual players. But a worse record or greater disappointment than 2011 would legitimately stun me.