Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 59

Thread: RBI "Most Over-Rated stat"

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,285
    Like
    255
    Liked 288 Times in 150 Posts
    I like to know the % of runners in scoring position who a batter brings home, whatever the method. # of RBI as a total does help put that into context for sample size.

  2. #22
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,764
    Like
    884
    Liked 864 Times in 555 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Yep. But even then, we get into issues with sample size.

    Maybe over a career, it's useful... Over a season, probably not.
    Exactly spot on. Perhaps this list of the Top 30 Batters w/ RISP over the last 11 years is helpful in separating the wheat from the chaff (One not-surprising ex-Twin is #10, but one current Twin, who might very well surpirse a lot of folks, is at #23):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
    Last edited by jokin; 03-17-2014 at 06:58 PM.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
    Posts
    1,228
    Twitter
    @crarko
    Like
    156
    Liked 782 Times in 411 Posts
    My nickel says pitch count is the most over-rated stat.

  4. This user likes crarko's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    notoriousgod71 (03-18-2014)

  5. #24
    I think many people ( me included sometimes) read what Bill James writes but dont *listen* to what he said.

    RBI's are over-rated but far from meaningless. Its most over-rated as an individual stat. If every dinger that Mark Mcgwire hit in 98 was a solo shot that is 70 RBI's which is significant...and certainly not meaningless.

    Problem is, as an individual stat it is at least partially a product of opportunity, so as a stat to rate individual performance its really kind of lousy.

    Player A has 100 opportunities and drives in 50 runs. Player B has 60 opportunities and drives in 48 runs.

    Guys making free agency decisions and arguing arbitration cases better be smarter then using counting stats in general and dependent counting stats specifically.

  6. This user likes BHtwins's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    LaBombo (03-17-2014)

  7. #25
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    548
    Like
    0
    Liked 25 Times in 15 Posts
    Blog Entries
    33
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Exactly spot on. Perhaps this list of the Top 30 Batters w/ RISP over the last 11 years is helpful in separating the wheat from the chaff (One not-surprising ex-Twin is #10, but one current Twin, who might very well surpirse a lot of folks, is at #23):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
    Great list of some of the Top RBI producers in baseball . The only meaningful stat is Team Wins! Now what type of team helps you win? The Oakland A's Billy Ball? The question is -What mixture of player characteristics and tendencies form a winning combination? The way the Red Sox won last year with a bunch of grinders is every working mans fantasy. It is not the norm for winning championships however. Most championships are won because Star Players (Pitchers & Hitters / or any sport), produced in the regular season with the help of the many grinders on their team. That is not to say that the Star players are not team players or grinders too.

    Picture your Fantasy MN Twins lineup of the future (2016 & beyond). Why do you expect them to win? What will be the needed winning style of play? Let's assume better than average pitching, but not Top 8. What meaningful stat will be the difference maker? and what perennial champions have utilized your formula of success?

  8. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
    Posts
    2,785
    Like
    667
    Liked 384 Times in 214 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Exactly spot on. Perhaps this list of the Top 30 Batters w/ RISP over the last 11 years is helpful in separating the wheat from the chaff (One not-surprising ex-Twin is #10, but one current Twin, who might very well surpirse a lot of folks, is at #23):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
    Take that list, and correlate RBI to wRC (which takes no account of the base-out sitauation). The correlation is .96

    RBI is just like OPS or wOBA or wRC. Its a (rough) measure of how good a batter is at hitting, period. The baserunners scurrying home to score are pretty incidental.

    edit: correlate to wRC because like RBI its additive. RBI/RBI Op's or RBI/PAs (turned into a rate basically) would compare to the rate stats (OPS, wOBA, etc).
    Last edited by Willihammer; 03-17-2014 at 08:45 PM.

  9. #27
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
    Posts
    591
    Like
    11
    Liked 11 Times in 9 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Overrated for sure. Definitely not the most overrated though. Off the top of my head I would go with saves, wins, BA with RISP (I don't know if this is a recorded stat but people speak as if it means something), errors...

  10. This user likes righty8383's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    ScrapTheNickname (03-17-2014)

  11. #28
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    132
    Like
    30
    Liked 42 Times in 32 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    The stat that I find most irritating is the number of saves that a closer has. It would be common sense to quantify one's ability not by the sheer number of saves but by the percentage of saves won. E.g. BaseballReference.com lists the all-time saves leader as M. Rivera as 652. J. Nathan is #10 at 341, but the percentage of saves completed are nearly identical. MLB stats show the saves and save opportunities but they don't calculate the %!

    Maybe this is old ground for you all but I had to spill my guts about it.

  12. #29
    *Sigh*

    The RBI stat is a box score stat. It HELPS to tell the story of the game if all you have is the box score. It tells you who was at bat when the run(s) scored. If you read a box score and did not have the RBI noted, you would not know who batted in the run.

    It was not intended to be a stat to describe how good a player is or was. It was not intended to be a stat to compare players (although it has been used as such). It helps to describe the action of a game.

    No one stat can completely describe how good a player is compared to other players. It is in combination with other stats that they become useful for comparisons.

    Player A goes 3 for 3 no RBI
    Player B goes 3 for 3 with 3 RBI
    Who had the better game?

    Player A had no one on base during his at bats.
    Player B had runners in scoring position for all his at bats.
    Who had the better game now?
    Player A had 2 doubles and a triple.
    Player B had 3 singles.
    Who had the better game now?

    The only reason the RBI stat is 'over-rated' is because you are trying to use it incorrectly.

  13. These 2 users like DuluthFan's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    JB_Iowa (03-18-2014), Riverbrian (03-17-2014)

  14. #30
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    132
    Like
    30
    Liked 42 Times in 32 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Exactly. Same thing with Saves.

  15. #31
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
    Posts
    1,048
    Like
    1,647
    Liked 489 Times in 285 Posts
    Agreed with what Duluth Fan said about RBI. For example, final score is 3-1, we look at the box score and see: 4 1 1 3 , and it's a good bet it was a 3-run homer. But for a long time, the papers didn't run the RBI column, so you saw: 4 1 1 and the guy above him 4 1 1 and the guy above him 4 1 1. So at some point RBI was meaningful enough to change the way the regular fan interpreted the game. The other problem is it's getting rarer and rarer that our first knowledge of a completed ball game is by reading a boxscore, so RBI is starting to lose ground. But I do think its fun for comparing elite hitters against each other, like Ortiz vs Cabrera vs Ryan Braun etc. and it's not going away as a Triple Crown stat.


    In my opinion, the most useless stat you'll find in a newspaper box score is the Hold. Eighth inning, leading 5-1, come in to pitch with the bases loaded, give up a bases-clearing double on the first pitch, get an out, and then you walk the bases loaded again. Your lead is down to a run, 5-4, and you get yanked. Congratulations, you've earned a "Hold" for not surrendering the lead in a save situation. An agent must have thought up that stat.

  16. #32
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
    Posts
    6,608
    Like
    3,682
    Liked 3,170 Times in 1,357 Posts
    Currently, the most overrated "stat" is WAR.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  17. These 2 users like USAFChief's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Hosken Bombo Disco (03-17-2014), notoriousgod71 (03-18-2014)

  18. #33
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
    Posts
    4,089
    Like
    1,822
    Liked 1,297 Times in 523 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Currently, the most overrated "stat" is WAR.
    Booooo.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  19. This user likes snepp's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    LaBombo (03-18-2014)

  20. #34
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
    Posts
    6,608
    Like
    3,682
    Liked 3,170 Times in 1,357 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    Booooo.
    Bases overrun only on overcast Octobers?
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  21. These 6 users like USAFChief's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    ashburyjohn (03-17-2014), ChiTownTwinsFan (03-18-2014), Hosken Bombo Disco (03-18-2014), snepp (03-18-2014), twinsnorth49 (03-18-2014), Willihammer (03-18-2014)

  22. #35
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    995
    Like
    195
    Liked 221 Times in 96 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Currently, the most overrated "stat" is WAR.
    Double, triple, quadruple like.

  23. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    The OP said "hitters"

    Otherwise a "win" for a pitcher (any pitcher) is the single most meaningless stat, because pitchers cannot win a game (unless they are in the NL and hit.) The best a pitcher can do is to avoid runs to score. Offense wins games.
    Not a good post.

  24. #37
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    204
    Like
    106
    Liked 22 Times in 15 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Votto getting only 73 RBIs last year with 24 HRs says something though.

  25. #38
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
    Posts
    2,785
    Like
    667
    Liked 384 Times in 214 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    I happened to watch the Cle-Cin ST game yesterday. The Reds roughed up Kluber in the 2nd inning, hard. Banged his pitches all over the park. They put up a 3-spot and had loaded the bases when Votto got up, with 2 outs. He got two an 0-2 count, then looked at a corveball down the middle of the plate for strike 3. I have to admit, even though it was a ST game, I would have been screaming at the TV if I were a Reds fan. Could have blown the game wide open (they still ended up winning 5-4).

    But, that was just one game. In the last year people have really scrutinized his approach and what it boils down to is this: 1. Votto is getting plenty of opportunities to drive in runners, 2. he is taking a lot of walks in those opportunities, 3. he generally isn't getting thrown strikes to hit in those opportunities, and 4. when you take base-out situation into consideration, Votto's walks are actually pretty valuable - ie. all his walks aren't just taking an open 1st base. Overall, from a weighted value standpoint, his production in situations with runners on base is equally as productive as neutral situations.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-...lue-of-a-walk/
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-...ssivity-index/
    Last edited by Willihammer; 03-18-2014 at 07:41 AM.

  26. #39
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,134
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    49
    Liked 1,604 Times in 832 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by DuluthFan View Post
    *Sigh*

    The RBI stat is a box score stat. It HELPS to tell the story of the game if all you have is the box score. It tells you who was at bat when the run(s) scored. If you read a box score and did not have the RBI noted, you would not know who batted in the run.

    It was not intended to be a stat to describe how good a player is or was. It was not intended to be a stat to compare players (although it has been used as such). It helps to describe the action of a game.

    No one stat can completely describe how good a player is compared to other players. It is in combination with other stats that they become useful for comparisons.

    Player A goes 3 for 3 no RBI
    Player B goes 3 for 3 with 3 RBI
    Who had the better game?

    Player A had no one on base during his at bats.
    Player B had runners in scoring position for all his at bats.
    Who had the better game now?
    Player A had 2 doubles and a triple.
    Player B had 3 singles.
    Who had the better game now?

    The only reason the RBI stat is 'over-rated' is because you are trying to use it incorrectly.
    This is a great post on how RBI should be used... Unfortunately, that's not how the stat has been used historically.

    What we have today that we didn't have 60 years ago is data and the ability to crunch large amounts of it. Since the advent of computers and advanced stat tracking, we've learned a few things:

    - RBI does not indicate future production
    - RBI is heavily team-dependent
    - Over the course of multiple seasons, "clutch hitting" does not exist barring a few incredibly rare exceptions

    Those things make RBI almost completely useless as a projection of future production or even a good indication of how a player performed outside of "he drove in a lot of runners", which could be a side effect of a team effort, not that individual player.

    I see no reason to ever use RBI outside of MVP voting or judging a player's career numbers. Slugging % tells us so much more about a hitter than RBI (and even Slugging % is seriously flawed).

  27. #40
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,719
    Like
    1,159
    Liked 566 Times in 370 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thetank View Post
    Votto getting only 73 RBIs last year with 24 HRs says something though.

    It says no one was no base in front of him, is what it says. That's the whole point of it being over rated....
    Lighten up Francis....

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.