03-14-2014, 10:17 PM #41
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There are just no comps for a trades in March. I tried to find anything that was close to Correia traded for anything other than a player out of options on another team. Those trades aren't there for the last several years. It certainly isn't reasonable to expect.
All teams have their own roster pressures. They are also tracking the players that may become available as other teams make roster decisions. There is little motivation to give up a prospect in March.
03-14-2014, 11:11 PM #42
03-14-2014, 11:24 PM #43
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I think it is a myth that the Twins have a logjam at #5 or too much pitching. The rotation is improved and it has some depth (primarily Gibson and a late season Meyer) but it's still pretty shaky.
The problem is that other than Nolasco none of the options are rock solid. We hope that Hughes and Pelfrey will be better than last year but... We hope that Gibson will be making a case that he HAS to be promoted but... We hope that everyone will stay healthy but... We hope that Johnson, Ibarra, Darnell, etc aren't last year's Hernandez's, Walter's and Alber's but...
Deduno - in the lead so far
Correia might not be great but I wouldn't go to any great lengths to bump up the #5 starters up the rotation.
03-14-2014, 11:51 PM #44
You mention "individual prospect rankings aren't always the best gauge" but then say the have "upside-heavy system, specifically in their international signings."
That's a contradiction.
Also look at the top 100 international signings since 2010. 90-95 of the top 100 don't even make it to AAA.
Corriea can contribute right now. And that's simple economics.
I doubt they are interested in Corriea but also doubt much of their international signings will mount to much.
03-14-2014, 11:57 PM #45
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03-15-2014, 12:11 AM #46
Would love to see that WAR breakdown.
International signings of late:
- Montero - 1 for 12
-Teheran - 1 for 20
- Yorman R, and maybe Ynoa - 1 for 20 so far.
- Heredia, Martinez, Alfaro
03-15-2014, 12:12 AM #47
How are they without Andruw Jones?
03-15-2014, 12:31 AM #48
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The Twins just spent $83 million bringing in pitching upgrades this season. Even though they had a rotation consisting of Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, Pelfrey and several options for a fifth starter they were still actively pursing many additional pitchers. Clearly they think the pitching isn't ideal even at this point.
Why do you think, after all the effort they have gone through to acquire starting pitching, that the Twins would give up Correia before the season starts? I get that as fans we would like that but from the Twins perspective, and their actions, it seems to make little sense.
03-15-2014, 02:49 AM #49Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!
03-15-2014, 08:28 AM #50
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03-15-2014, 09:50 AM #51Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!
03-15-2014, 05:20 PM #52
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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03-15-2014, 11:04 PM #53
The truth is a Twins Top 15-20 prospect is the equivalent to a Braves Top 3-8 prospect.
This is why...
The WORST pitching framing catcher in MLB, and a backup catcher, one Ryan Doumit, yielded Sean Gilmartin, who for 2013 publications, beginning with Minorleagueball was their #5 prospect. John Sickels worked for Bill James, he's solid. Bill Ballew, for Baseball America, had Sean Gilmartin as the #4 Braves prospect going into 2013. Bleacherreport had Gilmartin as #8 overall among Braves prospects. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus, had Gilmart as #6 overall among Braves prospects. Fangraphs had him at #5 juts behind Lucas Sims entering 2013. Even the latest Baseball America rating of when Gilmartin was a Brave has him as #10.
And I don't want to go Allen Iverson here, but "we're talkin about about a backup catcher, worst pitching framing in MLB, going to the NL (no DH). And he's horrible in in the OF too, for the Braves (#5 MLB, #4 BA, #8 BR, #6 BP, #5 Fangraphs) prospect.
I don't think Gilmartin will amount to much, but who knows, he had (having) a good Spring Training.
But the Braves, just not the same farm system league as the Twins. There's jr leagues and big leagues, the Braves have had a few great classes graduate with Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, and co, but this is 2014 and it's not the same type of impact talent there.
Even the guy you name dropped, Jason Parks, has the Twins farm system as #1 for both impact talent AND depth. Meanwhile, he had the Braves at #24. It's not even close.
Here's some other publications, and Keith Law, who you also named dropped, is here ranking the organizations:
Bleacher Report - Twins #1, Braves #21
The Sporting News - Twins #3, Braves #27
Prospect Digest - Twins #4, Braves #26
ESPN, Keith Law - Twins #2, Braves #22
Baseball Prospectus - Twins #1, Braves #24
Baseball America - Twins #3, Braves #26
So we actually have a Prospect who was in the Braves system, just as recent as 4 months ago (this past season) and who's now in the Twins system. And we have a number of major publications, scouts, etc. who've had a chance to place him in the Twins system with an appropriate ranking.
And we have the disparaging difference in farm systems, yet a Twins top 10-15 prospect and Correia would yield a Braves Top 10-15 Prospect. Maybe on your Xbox or PS3 where you have "forced trades" initiated.
Here's a another publication...
The Twins #11 prospect is equivalent to the Braves #3 prospect.
2 - Buxton
8 - Sano
35 - Meyer
61 - Stewart
68 - Pinto
84 - Thorpe
107 - Rosario
109 - Berrios
173 - Harrison
188 - Amaurys Minier
213 - Sean Gilmartin
262 - Trevor May
296 - Max Kepler
47 - Sims
83 - Benthancourt
212 - La Stella
230 - J.R. Graham
267 - Salazar
Aaron Gleeman, not an 'expert' or a professional scout, but definitely aware of major publication prospect ratings, has Gilmartin as #40 among Twins Prospects.
Seth Stohs has Gilmartin somewhere around #19-#23 among Twins Prospects.
The Publications go on and on. Maybe Gilmartin was at worst #10 among Braves Prospects...but, he's not ranked higher than (possibly) #19 among Twins Prospects.
Baseball America's 2014 Prospect Handbook had Gilmartin as #10 among 2014 Braves Prospects. Gilmartin is a "45 Medium"...so if you glance over at Twins Prospects, again, just trying to put Twins-Braves Prospects on the same playing field...#14 (J. Pinto) and #15 (M. Tonkin) are "45 Medium" for the Twins...as are...#19 (Taylor Rogers)...then starting at #25 "45 High (risk)"...Travis Harrison, Niko Goodrum, Tyler Jones, Stuart Turner.
And honestly, I wouldn't trade any of the Twins "45 Mediums" for Gilmartin.
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03-16-2014, 04:51 AM #54
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Nice vent. All he's saying that Correia's trade value is pretty much zero. Perhaps he should have said an equivalently ranked (overall rank) Twins hitting prospect + Correia would net an equivalently ranked Braves pitching prospect.
the fact is that if the Twins wanted to trade Correia then they aren't going to do much better than the Pedro Hernandez's, Eduardo Escobar's, Duke Welker's or Kris Johnson's. corriea is what he is. A veteran pitcher with no upside that is paid fairly. This isn't (currently) a tradeable commodity.
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03-16-2014, 05:59 AM #55
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03-16-2014, 01:15 PM #56
Same with Ryan Doumit. A catcher who can't catch. And semi-injured, yet, yielded a #10 prospect from another organization. Granted, he was fading, but still 'worst case' among all major publications (or any others I can find)...he was at least #10 or higher.
Trades also economically favor the team that's being inquired of. Just like the Royals 'overpaid' a bit for James Shields in the Wil Myers trade.
Correia isn't as bad as people think.
Let's compare him to recent traded pitchers.
Matt Garza. He was only a 1.5 WAR pitcher last year before his trade (and negative WAR afterwards). Granted, he has more 'lights out' possibilities than Correia, but he's not statistically that much better. Actually, Correia was better last year, he was a 1.6 WAR pitcher. Fangraphs: Garza 2.2, Correia 1.3. So either case, less than 1 Win difference if you have Garza vs. Correia.
Garza got a top prospect in return, C.J. Edwards (as high as #28 BA).
There's a bunch of other pitchers traded at the deadline. Which I will say, could possibly create a more economic imbalance (need)...
I don't know if the Braves feel that internally.
Either way, Correia is a pitcher who can eat 180+ innings, relatively cheap, and provide 1-3 WAR in doing so. FA WAR cost $7M per WAR. So he's worth (or meets) his $7M contract...
I'm not saying Correia is worth a lot, but a prospect at #10 in the Braves org has a greater chance of never making the bigs than one in the Twins org even at #15-20.
And Correia is a big league pitcher who can get 180 innings. He's the same WAR as Garza who yielded a top 80 prospect (according to any publication) and other prospects. Corriea doesn't have the sex appeal of Garza, but I'd say a top 120-150 prospect is within reason. For the Braves that'd probably start with La Stella to another '50 grade high (risk)' type of prospect in return.
I'm sure there's a decent chart (if I had more time) that is out there or one that can be made from analyzing the pitcher-prospect trades of the last 10 years.
03-16-2014, 01:24 PM #57
Outside of Sims and Bethancourt, I like Peraza (SS), Caratini (C), Hursh (P), and Parsons (P), but otherwise you're looking at a LOT of guys who are 21 in the GCL to 23-25 years old in low A to AA and not dominating those leagues.
Whereas the Twins have teenagers dominating the GCL/Appy/Low A leagues.
It's just an entirely different landscape thus why Gilmartin, who's struggled at AA/AAA and is going to be 24 in May was the Braves #10 or better prospect.
03-16-2014, 01:26 PM #58
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I don't know what Correia's trade value is, but it can't be much. Ryan was asked at the Winter meetings if there was any interest in Correia and he said no. That might have changed a little with injuries, but not much. Speaking of injuries, his value can only rise between now and the trade deadline. I do expect him to be moved by then. I would just be very surprised if it happened before June."If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
03-16-2014, 01:50 PM #59
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It's funny that the guy who's contract we all hated last year, we are now suddenly expecting to have good value. I'm not pointing fingers at anyone, because I too hated the contract, and I now too think he has some value.
However, Correia does seem like the kind of pitcher (boring innings eater) who fans would hate to give up anything for, but managers would overpay for. Depending on the GM, there probably is some decent value under the right circumstances.
03-16-2014, 02:32 PM #60
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