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Thread: Heyman: The Twins made a 3-year offer to Ervin Santana

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    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Here is the question one should ask: Would you rather have Santana in his age 31-33 seasons or Gibson in his age 25-30 seasons plus $33M. Santana has been a (fairly) consistent 4.19/4.36/4.24 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) pitcher.
    That's not exactly the question you need to ask. The question is, would you rather have Santana AND whatever you could acquire in a trade for Gibson or would you rather have Gibson?

    Given that I don't think Gibson's market is all that strong right now, the return might not add a lot to the equation, but it still has to be included.
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    How many other posters agree that this rotation "could be literally one of the best in baseball" and "lead a team to a championship"? There are quite a few rotations that are way better, at least I think so. Who else agrees with Trautmann13 or with me on this subject?

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  4. #83
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    I think it would take pretty much all 5 members having something close to the best years of their careers to make that rotation one of the best in baseball. It might take slightly less than that for it to be good enough to lead a team to a championship IF that team had far more offense than the Twins currently put on the field.

    On the other hand, compared to what the Twins have trotted out there for a rotation the past few years, I can understand that it might LOOK like a heck of a rotation, by comparison.
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    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    How many other posters agree that this rotation "could be literally one of the best in baseball" and "lead a team to a championship"? There are quite a few rotations that are way better, at least I think so. Who else agrees with Trautmann13 or with me on this subject?
    I think I don't know. I also think nobody else does either. The 87 and 91 rotations had some pretty huge question marks both before and during the season.

    The unpredictability of baseball is one of its charms.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Here is the question one should ask: Would you rather have Santana in his age 31-33 seasons or Gibson in his age 25-30 seasons plus $33M. Santana has been a (fairly) consistent 4.19/4.36/4.24 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) pitcher. Other than his 6 WAR 2008 season, he has been averaging close to 2 WAR a season (career 1.7 fWAR). This is Kevin Correia territory (4.18/4.40/4.24 ERA/FIP/xFIP and 1.3 fWAR in 2013 for the Twins).

    Do you think that Gibson can do better the next 3 (+2) seasons? I do...
    I think this is the wrong question. I think signing Santana means we trade KC.

    So would you rather have Ervin for 3/33 over KC this year? I think Ervin is a better pitcher and we have the extra $6M a year.

    Ervin has been up and down, but he would have been our best pitcher in 3 or 4 of the last 6 years. So I have no issues throwing KC or Pelfrey over-board for him.

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    Old guy, yes, I think it could be at least competitive. You don't need five starters in the post season. I get what you are saying Trautmann.

    Seems to me though that the best rotations in baseball are self developed, so yes there are far better ones. Cards, Giants, Rays, Braves, for example. Seattle should hang on to their pitchers better.

    If the Twins make one more signing (Ervin Santana for example) it would be hard to deny that the Twins are giving up on developing their own pitchers. That's what bothers me most. I'm hopeful for Hughes though; he is still pretty young and seems to have some stuff. We could make him our own. Santana does feel like a Correia-type short cut to me--somebody else's mediocre guy we are using for a while.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    If I thought they'd spend that money, and could get a SS or C in FA or whatever, sure, I think I'd rather have Gibson. But that has not yet been their model, other than 1 outlier year. They needed a SS and a C this year, had plenty of money, and signed Suzuki.
    As far as free agent catchers go, if anyone else (Pierzynski, Saltalamachia) instead of Suzuki were signed, it would pretty much guarantee AAA for Pinto. And I think that a 50-50 Pinto-Suzuki combination to start the year and end 75-25 Pinto-Suzuki, will be more productive than the 2 aforementioned. Plus the last person I would want back in the team would be Pierzynksi.

    As far as SS goes, Drew is still around and if he signs an one year deal it might be alright. I am a bick Eduardo Escobar believer and I think that as the starting SS, he can be a 2-3 win player (like Dozier was last year) which is higher than Drew's average.

    Unless they were going to trade for Jose Reyes or Buster Posey or something, not sure that there were a lot of options out there. Drew and the FA catchers would not really make that much difference in this team.

    What can make still the difference? Handing Hicks the CF job (instead of Presley or De Aza or something), Have Pinto get at least 50% of the starts at C, have Arcia as the starting RF, have Willingham as the DH and hope they all have good years.
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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think this is the wrong question. I think signing Santana means we trade KC.

    So would you rather have Ervin for 3/33 over KC this year? I think Ervin is a better pitcher and we have the extra $6M a year.

    Ervin has been up and down, but he would have been our best pitcher in 3 or 4 of the last 6 years. So I have no issues throwing KC or Pelfrey over-board for him.
    A. Pelfrey is better than E. Santana.
    B. OK. Let's trade Correia this season. Then the question becomes, who would you rather have, E. Santana or Alex Meyer in 2015?
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    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    A. Pelfrey is better than E. Santana.
    B. OK. Let's trade Correia this season. Then the question becomes, who would you rather have, E. Santana or Alex Meyer in 2015?
    This is what bothers me about this purported deal. This year, he would be an upgrade over Correia. But I think he'll be below Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson and Deduno. Next year, he'd be below those four plus Meyer. By the end of his contract, there might be another kid who shoots up through the system.

    I suppose they could trade him prior to the end of his contract. But that is a big risk to take on. According to reports, the Twins have not found a buyer for Correia. The same thing could happen for Santana, especially if he gets hurt in one of the three years.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    A. Pelfrey is better than E. Santana.
    Ervin, all in the AL - 1,686 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 7.1 k/9, 2.8 bb/9, 8.8 h/9. 3 seasons with an ERA under 3.50, 4 seasons with an ERA under 4.00

    Pelfrey, almost all NL - 1,049 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 91 ERA+, 5.2 k/9, 3.2 bb/9, 10.1 H/9. 0 seasons with an ERA under 3.50. 2 with an ERA under 4.00.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 03-10-2014 at 12:50 PM.

  13. #91
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Yeah, I was ok with bringing Pelfrey back on a reasonable deal and I'm not a big believer in Santana coming off an unusually (for him) productive year, but I still wouldn't agree that Pelfrey is better than Santana. He may be less of an injury risk, given that Pelf's had TJ and Santana has been pitching through the UC issues, but I think if you set money aside, most people would take Santana in their 2014 rotation over Pelfrey.
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  14. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Ervin, all in the AL - 1,686 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 7.1 k/9, 2.8 bb/9, 8.8 h/9. 3 seasons with an ERA under 3.50, 4 seasons with an ERA under 4.00

    Pelfrey, almost all NL - 1,049 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 91 ERA+, 5.2 k/9, 3.2 bb/9, 10.1 H/9. 0 seasons with an ERA under 3.50. 2 with an ERA under 4.00.
    Thankyou for the reality check, Tobi! In what universe is Pelfrey ever better than Santana? And to JC yes, last year was a productive year for the inconsistent Santana, but you're understating his value, even though we both agree that he's way better than Pelfrey. To wit: Santana has been really good in 2 of the last 3 years and had an ERA+ above 100 in 4 of the last 6 years, a WAR @ 3 or better in 5 of 8 years.

    By contrast, Pelfrey has been really good in ZERO of the last 3 years and had an ERA+ above 100 in 2 of the last 6 years, none since 2010, and he has had a WAR of 3 or better only ONCE in 7 years.

    This is not close. And given that the Twins have actively been pursuing both Garza and Santana, AFTER signing Pelfrey, Hughes and Nolasco, tells me that they feel compelled to hedge their bets on what the remaining "crazy" SP depth can possibly bring to the table, including Gibson.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-10-2014 at 01:30 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    How many other posters agree that this rotation "could be literally one of the best in baseball" and "lead a team to a championship"? There are quite a few rotations that are way better, at least I think so. Who else agrees with Trautmann13 or with me on this subject?
    They need to score runs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Thankyou for the reality check, Tobi!

    And given that the Twins have actively been pursuing both Garza and Santana, AFTER signing Pelfrey, Hughes and Nolasco, tells me that they feel compelled to hedge their bets on what the remaining "crazy" SP depth can possibly bring to the table, including Gibson.
    Thank you.

    I agree to a certain extent about the depth. I think at the end of the day the Twins were embarrased about our staff and wanted to get some depth and infuse talent. If we trade Correa this year or Pelfrey next year to make room for someone, that is a good problem to solve. A lot of these issues solve themselves through injury/ineffectiveness. I have almost zero confidence in Worley, very little in Diamond, and slightly more in Deduno but with him it is health.

    Looking two years out and from a building block perspective, we have only four guys you can say with reasonable accuracy that they will be part of the solution. Nolasco, Hughes, Meyer, and Gibson. That assumes nobody is off 15 months with TJ, our thesis on Hughes struggles in NY are correct, Gibson figures it out, etc. Had we had this conversation in 2008 or 2009 we would have all said Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, and Liriano were all staples for years to come. This is the logic that resulted in us trading Garza for an OF.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    This is the logic* that resulted in us trading Garza for an OF.
    * or lack thereof.

    I guess we can coin a new term, as a future warning and caveat: Beware of "staple logic". Translation: you can't have enough quality SP in your depth chart and developmental pipeline.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    In what universe is Pelfrey ever better than Santana?
    Donuts to dollars Pelfrey will have better numbers than Ervin Santana in 2014.

    Feel free to tell me after the season if this does not come true
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    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    This is what bothers me about this purported deal. This year, he would be an upgrade over Correia. But I think he'll be below Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson and Deduno. Next year, he'd be below those four plus Meyer. By the end of his contract, there might be another kid who shoots up through the system.

    I suppose they could trade him prior to the end of his contract. But that is a big risk to take on. According to reports, the Twins have not found a buyer for Correia. The same thing could happen for Santana, especially if he gets hurt in one of the three years.
    This is a more clear and concise way to say what I've been trying to. At some point these multi year deals start to create impediments to prospects. If you want to do something like this, do it for Morales or Drew. This isn't the best allocation of resources.

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    So your guess on their 2014 numbers > 1000+ IP sample size when it comes to gauging who is a better player?

    If you want to say that it's your opinion that Pelfrey will be better than E. Santana in 2014 with no evidence to support it, thats your call, but saying Pelfrey is better than E. Santana is in no way a true statement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Donuts to dollars Pelfrey will have better numbers than Ervin Santana in 2014.

    Feel free to tell me after the season if this does not come true
    On what basis are you assuring us of this? Don't get me wrong, I hope you prove to be right, but I don't see the data or evidence, other than betting on a contrarian long shot.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S. View Post
    So your guess on their 2014 numbers > 1000+ IP sample size when it comes to gauging who is a better player?

    If you want to say that it's your opinion that Pelfrey will be better than E. Santana in 2014 with no evidence to support it, thats your call, but saying Pelfrey is better than E. Santana is in no way a true statement.
    Aren't the 2014 numbers the ones that really matter for the Twins vs. the past of these 2 players? I don't care what E (or J for that matter) Santana did in 2008, I care for what he is going to do in 2014 vs what Pelfrey (or Correia for that matter) is going to do. Fair? And there is no sample size for the future

    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    On what basis are you assuring us of this? Don't get me wrong, I hope you prove to be right, but I don't see the data or evidence, other than betting on a contrarian long shot.
    I am not assuring anyone for anything. It's a gamble. I am betting Pelfrey is younger and I think that he has better stuff while Santana has been regressing since 2008. Last season Santana had a 3.93 FIP and Pelfrey a 3.99 FIP with all he went through with the elbow. Another season removed from that for Pelfrey and another season of regression for Santana.... (unless you count wins and losses and ERA or something, which all depend on others.)
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