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Thread: Article: Position Battle: Fifth Starter

  1. #61
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    And therein lies the crux of the dispute I think and why we won't see eye to eye on this. Many of us see 2014 as a lost season without a chance of contending. Since we believe that to be true all that really matters is who will make this team better in 2015 and beyond. I for one could care less if the Twins win 75 games or 65 this season. In fact I'd probably prefer the 65 where they'll at least get a better draft choice as a reward for the terrible season.
    Exactly. We disagree. And I cannot as a fan say that I would want my team to have another awful season and that should be the purpose of a major league team.

    My premise is that the Twins should try to be competitive each and every season and if they are not there is something wrong. Also, with the free agent pitcher signings that Ryan did, they better be competitive in 2014.

    If someone wants to watch baseball for the sake of watching baseball and not having his team win but see his team develop players, or be entertained, there are plenty of minor and/or independent league teams to follow.

    Minor League teams' purpose is to develop players.
    Independent League teams' purpose is entertainment.
    Major League teams' purpose is winning.\

    But that is just my opinion.
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  3. #62
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Who wants true competition? I think most teams would much prefer to have all 5 starting pitchers set prior to ST. I would like to hear a case, that only one of Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, and Pelfrey deserve a spot in the starting rotation.
    I want true competition if you don't have guys that are truly rotation figures. We have a big pile of guys that on good teams are 4s or 5s. That isn't stability. That isn't a wealth of options. It's just an improvement over they pile of 6s we had recently. Let's not lose perspective here - we improved (and I heartily endorse the Hughes and Nolasco signings) but it wasn't like we brought in a couple aces here.

    ERA+ for Hughes, Pelfrey, Diamond, and Worley are all below 80. That's not good, they all should have something to prove to have a spot. Correia was ok last year, but he's old and recently was demoted to the bullpen by another team previously. Given the team's need to build for the future, he should have to show last year wasn't a fluke. So should most of the group, including guys like Hughes that I'm high on.

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  5. #63
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Major League teams' purpose is winning.\

    But that is just my opinion.
    Sometimes to get to winning you have to let young players take lumps in the majors as part of their development. At some point, you've learned all you can at AA and AAA.

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  7. #64
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Sometimes to get to winning you have to let young players take lumps in the majors as part of their development. At some point, you've learned all you can at AA and AAA.
    Agreed. That's why I think that Pinto should be the starting C instead of Suzuki and Hicks the starting CF instead of Presley. And these 2 give the Twins a better probability to win as well... And I'd rather have Meyer or Worley or Gibson in the rotation than Correia, Deduno or Diamond every single day, for the same reason.
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  9. #65

    Pitching/free agents/trades/good prospects

    Who thinks that we should still be acquiring more starter pitchers for the 5th rotation spot from the free agent market/trades, because the cardinals have 8 good young starters they could let maybe one come over to Minnesota for a few decent twins or try to sign Barry Zito (even though he might not be playing in 2014, he's healthy) he could provide some very useful knowledge and experience to a so-so pitching staff. To me I'd like to see the twins trade some of our prospects not buxton or Sano but maybe a Danny Santana could bring over a good pitcher instead of a 5th starter.
    What do you guys think?

  10. #66
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    26 is the prime of a career, and is not young. The data is out there.
    If you are talking about the fangraphs aggregate (i.e. adding all players together) data, these are way skewed because of small sample sizes on both edges of the age graphs. i.e. the few19 year olds (think Harper and Trout) in the majors are usually on the top of the scale to be there, whereas you have a whole bunch of 28 year olds ranging from MVP to replacement level... That data needs to come with error bars reflecting the sample size, but it never does

    The better data is data that looks at each individual player's career and then adds the individual curves. Harder to do than the fangraphs' way, but much more accurate and pushing the peak closer to 28-30...
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  11. #67
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Exactly. We disagree. And I cannot as a fan say that I would want my team to have another awful season and that should be the purpose of a major league team.

    My premise is that the Twins should try to be competitive each and every season and if they are not there is something wrong. Also, with the free agent pitcher signings that Ryan did, they better be competitive in 2014.

    If someone wants to watch baseball for the sake of watching baseball and not having his team win but see his team develop players, or be entertained, there are plenty of minor and/or independent league teams to follow.

    Minor League teams' purpose is to develop players.
    Independent League teams' purpose is entertainment.
    Major League teams' purpose is winning.\

    But that is just my opinion.
    I don't buy the 70-win crap. I expect them to be competitive this year (above .500). But this team doesn't have the horses to contend. They should in 2015, with Pinto, Arcia, Gibson, Meyer, May, Hicks, Sano, Rosario Santana, and Buxton breaking through. At least five of those need to break through sometime this year. So it is by definition a transitional year. It can still be competitive, but the September Twins will look very different from the April Twins.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  12. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisKnutson View Post
    Who thinks that we should still be acquiring more starter pitchers for the 5th rotation spot from the free agent market/trades, because the cardinals have 8 good young starters they could let maybe one come over to Minnesota for a few decent twins or try to sign Barry Zito (even though he might not be playing in 2014, he's healthy) he could provide some very useful knowledge and experience to a so-so pitching staff. To me I'd like to see the twins trade some of our prospects not buxton or Sano but maybe a Danny Santana could bring over a good pitcher instead of a 5th starter.
    What do you guys think?
    I think that is the age-old question. The Cardinals have what every other team wants, because they developed their own guys, so they have all the leverage. They can jack the price up higher than a Danny Santana-- it would take Buxton or Sano or more, to pry a Shelby Miller from them.

    Yet we don't need other team's prospects. We have our own. Gibson should have pitched in the majors last year -- he was twirling complete game shutouts in AAA Rochester last spring. In my opinion, over the past half dozen years, the Twins have forgotten the balance balance between getting a guy seasoning in AAA and teaching him to pitch in MLB. Gibson doesn't need any more innings at AAA and Meyer hopefully doesn't dwell long in the minors before being called up. Many people here will disagree though.

  13. #69
    We have our top two pitching coaches with the Twins in Anderson and Cuellar. Don't you want your top prospects to learn from the best coaches and pitch in front of the best defensive players? I agree with those who say Meyer and Gibson need to throw a majority of their innings in the majors this year.

  14. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by birddog View Post
    We have our top two pitching coaches with the Twins in Anderson and Cuellar. Don't you want your top prospects to learn from the best coaches and pitch in front of the best defensive players? I agree with those who say Meyer and Gibson need to throw a majority of their innings in the majors this year.
    Mason spent 11 years as LaRussa's bullpen coach. He might know a little something.

  15. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Except for last year, when the "youthful" Kyle Gibson was blocked by the likes of PJ Walters, Cole DeVries and Pedro Hernandez, instead of being called up in May. And Alex Meyer certainly won't be rushed this year, at least not until all the out-of option guys prove whether or not they deserve to be around- I even expect at least one or more of the recent offseason pitching acquisitions and/or Trevor May to get a start before Meyer does.
    If Kyle Gibson had pitched 20 major league games much as he did the first 10 there would be nothing but clamoring what a poor pitcher he is. Through those 10 games he did not show any progress at a major league level and was sent back down. So what basis could you possibly have for saying Gibson was blocked when he pitched poorly at the major league level other than that it is opinion an no facts? While you are fact checking, take a minute to see that DeVries did not pitch for the Twins until September after Gibson was shut down. By the numbers, Walters was no worse than Gibson.
    Last edited by The Wise One; 02-22-2014 at 02:14 PM.

  16. #72
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    If Kyle Gibson had pitched 20 major league games much as he did the first 10 there would be nothing but clamoring what a poor pitcher he is. Through those 10 games he did not show any progress at a major league level and was sent back down. So what basis could you possibly have for saying Gibson was blocked when he pitched poorly at the major league level other than that it is opinion an no facts? While you are fact checking, take a minute to see that DeVries did not pitch for the Twins until September after Gibson was shut down. By the numbers, Walters was no worse than Gibson.
    Gibson's 2013 season needs to be put in perspective. It was his first season back from Tommy John surgery and I think that the Twins did not call him up early enough. He was called up June 29th after he had already pitched 101.7 innings in the minors (with a 2.93 ERA/3.10 FIP) and had this near no-hitter.

    Here are his game logs with the Twins in 2013. Check out the GameScore (GSc) column. 50 is average. So Gibson had a few average games, one good game, couple bad games and a horrible game. He did not pitch poorly and the "major league level" and I strongly believe that if the Twins got him up to Minnesota in May instead of late June, you'd be happier with Gibson. Like Pelfrey, give him time to heal.
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  17. #73
    I hope they bring the BEST 25 both, period. Cut ties with the wannabees, let the rookies that NEED developing continue to develop unless they so shine the place up. I just wish there was some value to be had in any of the three, but there isn't.

  18. #74
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    Not sure I could possibly post all the thoughtful arguments I agree and disagree with!

    To begin I will echo statements and repeat my own on Gibson. He is hardly old at 26. And in real baseball terms he is "25" when you figure a lost year to surgery and a feeling his arm is as sound as ever, if not better. Something often reported by successful TJ patients. If he tosses bullets and is read, so be it. We're all happ as can be. But a few weeks to stretch out and get n a groove before being promoted does nothing to defeat his value or potential.

    2014 is not a lost season. It hasn't even begun yet! But it is a transition year. The management staff and front office knows this. But their job is not simply to promote youngsters early to struggle and try to figure things out. Their job, especially in a transition year, is to win and be competitive the best they can, and to promote youngsters when ready. This accomplishes two things.

    One is to create the best winning/competitive environment for the fans to actually put butts in the seats and keep the team interesting, but also to promote the best environment for success for the young players on the roster, and those who will yet be promoted.

    The second is to not rush those yet ready so they can gain experience, gain confidence and consistency, and refine their skill set so they can play to a MLB level when given the opportunity and not suffer initial shell shock.

    I firmly believe Ryan and Gard and everyone else fully expects some roster fluctuation during the season. And I don't believe they will be hesitant to release, trade, or DFA where necessary to continue forward with this year's transition.

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  20. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    If Kyle Gibson had pitched 20 major league games much as he did the first 10 there would be nothing but clamoring what a poor pitcher he is. Through those 10 games he did not show any progress at a major league level and was sent back down. So what basis could you possibly have for saying Gibson was blocked when he pitched poorly at the major league level other than that it is opinion an no facts?

    While you are fact checking, take a minute to see that DeVries did not pitch for the Twins until September after Gibson was shut down. By the numbers, Walters was no worse than Gibson.
    Let's see....what basis?.....what opinion?....how about just some simple fact-checking:

    "Cole DeVries won a spot in the season-opening rotation last season, but landed on the disabled list with a forearm issue before he could make his 2013 debut."

    http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_2...-cole-de-vries

    Give me something harder to research than this next time, please. And I stand with Thrylos and many others who post here in saying that by the time the Twins had explored every healthy option, Gibson had used up much of his arm strength- a May call-up was warranted on a rebuilding team, not wasting more and more time with guys who not only are not part of the future, but who also had no business on a major league roster as a starter.
    Last edited by jokin; 02-22-2014 at 07:12 PM.

  21. #76
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Let's see....what basis?.....what opinion?....how about just some simple fact-checking:

    "Cole DeVries won a spot in the season-opening rotation last season, but landed on the disabled list with a forearm issue before he could make his 2013 debut."

    http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_2...-cole-de-vries

    Give me something harder to research than this next time, please. And I stand with Thrylos and many others who post here in saying that by the time the Twins had explored every healthy option, Gibson had used up much of his arm strength- a May call-up was warranted on a rebuilding team, not wasting more and more time with guys who not only are not part of the future, but who also had no business on a major league roster as a starter.
    This. Also, it needs to be said that some of Gibson's sub-par games were umpire-induced. Parker did an analysis of some of his games and he was the most robbed pitcher in the game in terms of strikes called balls. Umpires weren't used to his movement, and often called pitches where they were caught by the catcher rather than where they crossed the plane of the strike zone. In one game, 18 strikes were called balls by an umpire.
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  22. #77
    Senior Member Triple-A Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    And therein lies the crux of the dispute I think and why we won't see eye to eye on this. Many of us see 2014 as a lost season without a chance of contending. Since we believe that to be true all that really matters is who will make this team better in 2015 and beyond. I for one could care less if the Twins win 75 games or 65 this season. In fact I'd probably prefer the 65 where they'll at least get a better draft choice as a reward for the terrible season.



    I don't think anyone would complain about too many starting pitching options if we had say the Cardinals' rotation. That's a great problem to have. On the other hand the Twins only have 1 pitcher that would even get a start in the playoffs for most teams. I fail to see how having six #5 starters is a good thing. I do see how it quickly could become a bad thing though if it prevents a highly touted prospect from coming up and getting a crack at the rotation.

    Let's not pretend that the Twins will just cut a player because a prospect (say Alex Meyer) is suddenly ready.
    Alex Meyer isn't suddenly ready, and if by some miracle he were, there is not one pitcher on the roster preventing him from making his debut. Injuries and failures will happen, Worley/Diamond/Deduno will either fail, get injured, or be in the bullpen. You are right, the Twins will not cut a player to make room for another, they don't have to.

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  24. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Let's see....what basis?.....what opinion?....how about just some simple fact-checking:

    "Cole DeVries won a spot in the season-opening rotation last season, but landed on the disabled list with a forearm issue before he could make his 2013 debut."

    http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_2...-cole-de-vries

    Give me something harder to research than this next time, please. And I stand with Thrylos and many others who post here in saying that by the time the Twins had explored every healthy option, Gibson had used up much of his arm strength- a May call-up was warranted on a rebuilding team, not wasting more and more time with guys who not only are not part of the future, but who also had no business on a major league roster as a starter.
    Despite your bolding, lip-service isn't a fact (something you'd use against the organization at your behest, I think). It's easy to say someone won something that they didn't. We call those beauty prizes. That it took so long for DeVrie to earn his way back speaks far more to what the Twins thought of him, than some give-a-way quote in Spring Training. Really.

    You can pretend to know what Gibson would have done if you had this that and the other, but really, no one knows, least of all any of us. Gibson stumbled at the ML level, and it's a surrender of personal responsibility to suggest it's anything but his fault. The Twins, honestly, put him in the best position to succeed. That he didn't suggests something about both the extent of his injury and his development.
    Last edited by PseudoSABR; 02-23-2014 at 01:07 AM.

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  26. #79
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    Standard operating procedure in MLB is not to rush a rookie starting pitcher just back from Tommy John surgery to the bigs to take advantage of his fresh arm. We were told on several occasions that he was being held up because of being inconsistent. Ryan basically talked about building up his arm strength and going from there.
    Last edited by howieramone; 02-23-2014 at 12:51 AM.

  27. #80
    Just read a fantasy projection of the top 60 pitchers in baseball.....nary a Twin to be found.... Pretty tough to compete when ALL of your pichers are in the bottom half of the league. So all this talk about a fifth starter seems pretty useless How long will it be til the Twins have a guy ranked in the top 30? Just one pitcher ranked better thanONE other teams best?

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